Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: The primary votes are 31% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-45 to 49-43, and Kevin Rudd’s lead over Gillard is up from 61-35 to 62-31.

UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard is down two on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 58%, while Tony Abbott edges towards respectability with approval up a point to 43% and disapproval down two to 53%. Toe-to-toe questions on the Labor leadership have Gillard leading Bob Carr 50-41, Bill Shorten 52-38 and Greg Combet 53-35. Among Labor voters, Rudd leads Gillard 51-48. Joe Hockey leads Wayne Swan as preferred Treasurer 48-40, which compares with 44-44 the last time the question was asked.

UPDATE 3: Tables from GhostWhoVotes. Also, support for the carbon price is at 40% against 55% opposed, while 3% think they are better off after compensation, 37% worse off and 57% unchanged.

UPDATE (18/3/13): Essential Research

Essential Research has Labor up for the second week in a row, their primary vote up from 34% to 35% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 47% and the Greens are steady on 9%. The poll also finds 58% supporting moves to reduce the number of foreign workers on 457 visas against only 24% opposed; an increase in support or the NBN since November from 69% to 73%; a fall in support for the mineral resources rent tax from 63% to 57%; 44% support for carbon pricing against 46% opposition; 48% believing a Coalition government would restore WorkChoices against 28% who think it unlikely, compared with 51% and 25% in September. A regular question on trust in various institutions found an across the board improvement since October, with the High Court and the ABC both up 11 points to 74% and 70%. Three recorded lower results than last time: religious organisations, down four to 27%, newspapers, down a point to 30%, online news media, down one to 27%, and political parties, down four to 12%.

UPDATE (19/3/13): Morgan multi-mode poll

Not yet sure how to read Morgan’s new “multi-mode” polls, which combine their existing face-to-face methodology with “online surveying and via SMS polling”, producing huge but apparently diminishing samples (3,982 this time). The results are promisingly in line with the overall trend, with Labor up 1.5% to 33%, the Coalition down 1% to 46% and the Greens down half a point to 10.5%. I am excluding this series from Bludgertrack until I get a sufficient results to produce bias measures by comparing its figures with the overall trend. The two-party results are fairly close together this time, respondent-allocation having the Coalition lead at 54.5-45.5 (down from 57.5-42.5) and the previous election method having it at 54-46 (down from 55.5-44.5), so hopefully the new methodology will mean an end to Morgan’s curious behaviour on this score.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,211 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. I am not sure if this has been discussed before, but in the Howard years, Nielsen was more consistently friendly to Labor than the Newspoll, now it is the opposite. Why would this be?

  2. [Stephen Spencer ‏@sspencer_63
    After threatening to block me, then deleting this, then accusing me of making this up, @vanOnselenP has blocked me. Newsltd blocks 4/4.]

    Freedom of speech, but only on my terms? I’m shocked. I held PvO in much higher esteem than he’s exhibited tonight.

  3. gloryconsequence@1

    Newspoll was a rogue.

    In my view, not quite. A rogue for Newspoll’s sample size would be 3 points off trend. I don’t think it was quite that far astray given that the Coalition-friendlies were giving 55 at the same time.

    But it certainly sticks out. Now only last night someone here was telling me – in terms somewhat belittling towards my abilities and methods too! – that Labor was on the way back and it would be 50-50 by the end of May!

  4. The Finnigans@41

    #Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 46 Rudd 42 Shorten 7 #auspol

    the real LABOR supporters, the majority, support PM Gillard, the traitors, like them painful doggys support you know who.

    Or looked at realistically, the core Labor supporters only prefer Gillard by a narrow margin over Rudd, even with teh advantage of incumbency.

    And among the voters that need to be won over, Rudd does 350% better than Gillard. 12% vs 42%.

    Gillard should resign.

  5. Those figures, particularly the 31% PV, are appalling.

    Labor will need at least 40% PV to win, irrespective of leadership.

    Every time I see a bad poll for Labor, I imagine the grub sitting in the PM’s chair in the HoR.

  6. @bemused/57

    over 4 votes?? Highly doubtful.

    @feeney/58

    Everyone PB and Media been saying that for yonks even under Rudd.

  7. Don’t forget feeney that polls always underestimate both parties primary votes by 2-3% because of the “Don’t knows”.

  8. [#Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 46 Rudd 42 Shorten 7 #auspol]

    Medication time.

    That shows pretty much the Labor crowd are 50/50 on a leadership change…ie will make no difference to them.

    However if Labor are to win…it is Coalition voters they need to get, not already Labor voters.

    Pretty desperate comment actually…why not say something about bisons (that Rudd’s GFC response kept safe for Aust)

  9. CT

    I finished Landscape with Yellow Birds.

    I just ordered a book on how to do Japanese Brushwork.

    Famous last words: How hard could it be !

  10. Every man and his dog could see that last week’s newspoll was rogue. But please, don’t all stop with your hilarious, pathetic and desperate delusions that Labor will somehow win – they are a joy and a pleasure to read.

  11. [At long last, it was clear to many, Wedderburn in Carr’s office, for instance, that the landline polls Galaxy, Newspoll, Nielsen and ReachTel falsely favoured the Liberals. Almost nobody under forty had a landline any more, so the ReachTel robocalling on Late Shopping Night of a commuter suburb’s landlines understated Labor’s vote by perhaps three percent ‒ perhaps five ‒ and this meant no seats, no seats at all, in the Western Suburbs were certain to fall, and all twelve might be saved.]

    Well at least one of the true believers is confident

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/bob-ellis-bifurcated-week-in-canberra/

  12. Thomas. Paine.@63

    #Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 46 Rudd 42 Shorten 7 #auspol


    Medication time.

    That shows pretty much the Labor crowd are 50/50 on a leadership change…ie will make no difference to them.

    However if Labor are to win…it is Coalition voters they need to get, not already Labor voters.

    Pretty desperate comment actually…why not say something about bisons (that Rudd’s GFC response kept safe for Aust)

    Perhaps the Bisons repeated over and over as a Gregorian chant will save the day. 👿

  13. [Every time I see a bad poll for Labor, I imagine the grub sitting in the PM’s chair in the HoR.]

    Gillard is now a grub is she, after everything she’s weathered the past 2.5 years in order to legislate a Labor platform?

    That is serious hate, right there.

  14. confessions@71

    Every time I see a bad poll for Labor, I imagine the grub sitting in the PM’s chair in the HoR.


    Gillard is now a grub is she, after everything she’s weathered the past 2.5 years in order to legislate a Labor platform?

    That is serious hate, right there.

    Hahahahaha… the best example yet of confessions serious lack of comprehension.

    the ‘grub’ is clearly a reference to Abbott.

  15. [42% of the 34% who support Labor are traitors?]

    Exactly, they should be made to go vote Communist party, we don’t want scummy Rudd voters defiling our new center right ‘Labor’ party.

  16. [ meher baba
    Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 9:08 pm | Permalink

    This result will whip up the Press Gallery into a maniacal frenzy re Ruddstoration this week.

    Sigh…..]

    Once you realise Labor aren’t that stupid, Ruddstoration is actually quite entertaining. I love seeing disappointed reporters.

    Can bemused keep up to the elections, I want to know the answer.

  17. Anyone who says this poll is reality is just a Ruddista trying to destabilise Labor. All polls showing Labor under Gillard worse than 47/53 should be ignored, and only improving polls should be believed.

    Even worse, the scheming Kevin Rudd has convicted himself, with his own words, of having a sense of humor. That clearly makes him a threat and disqualifies him from leadership.
    [Kevin Rudd has used a St Patrick’s Day speech to joke about political backstabbing and challenges.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-jokes-about-challenge-on-st-patricks-day-20130317-2g8dg.html#ixzz2NnD0j2WA

    This is too much to be a coincidence. The speech and the fake bad poll are all part of a conspiracy against Labor’s right-full leaders. Believe and obey.

  18. natalie d@67

    Every man and his dog could see that last week’s newspoll was rogue.

    Every man and his dog has heard the word “rogue” and thinks they know what it means.

    In exactly 95% of cases, I’d back the dog to understand the term better than its owner.

  19. The point that Gillard supporters on here miss is that for Labor to win, they must bring back people who are currently repeatedly telling pollsters they intend to vote LNP. Those people make it clear poll after poll they simply are not going to vote for Gillard. That might be an uncomfortable reality for many on here, but reality it is. It is all very well to hang on to the fact that Julia Gillard is preferred Labor leader among Labor voters, (and even that is by a narrow margin according to those Newspoll numbers) but the fact is, Labor will be wiped out with a primary vote in the low 30s, where it is stuck. Labor and it’s supporters, it seems to me, have a simple choice to make: Kevin Rudd or Tony Abbott.

  20. Rossmore@65

    Bemused. “Gillard. Should resign.”

    Well, she ain’t gonna. Least of all for the likes of you.

    Go Jules!

    G’day Rossmore.

    Are you up for that bit of campaigning on the 21st?

  21. Chins up comrades. When the Tories gloat, when Bemused and his acolytes hyperventilate, when Piers self-immolates, I look in the eyes of the PM and see a leader, standing firm, dispaying immense courage.

  22. [smssiva
    Posted Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 9:46 pm | PERMALINK
    FB

    Phil Hughes will score a century and save Australia]

    He could too, I come from Phil H neck of the woods and know his grandfather very well

  23. Rossmore@65

    Bemused. “Gillard. Should resign.”

    Well, she ain’t gonna. Least of all for the likes of you.

    Go Jules!

    Yes, I agree. Bemused’s uncontrollable elation whenever the polling figures favor the Noalition is one of his most disturbing characteristics. Labor supporter … not!

    Along with TP, of course, who can’t seem to accept that Gillard really is the preferred leader of Labor at the moment, and not by a small margin. He can’t seem to understand that most of the Shorten votes would return to Gillard, in any two-person standoff, making her by far the runaway winner in any challenge. Again – Labor supporter … not!

    And feeney, of course who insists that Labor needs 40% PV, even though they won the last election with under 38% – and gave us the best performing parliament in decades into the bargain. Again – Labor supporter … not!

  24. confessions @ 71

    Just what are you on about? Read my post again, please. It may be a little inelegantly written, but I was referring to the grub Abbott.

    If you had followed me closely re Abbott, you would have noticed that I always refer to him as “grub Abbott” or “the grub”. I have a personal loathing of Abbott which words cannot adequately describe.

    I have never bagged Gillard personally – as you have Rudd -as I don’t think it achieves anything.

  25. Kevin, of course it was rogue. Every single otherpoll since Feb, including newspoll itself, has had 54 or above. There are sometimes rogue polls, and that was one of them.

  26. [Even worse, the scheming Kevin Rudd has convicted himself, with his own words, of having a sense of humor.]

    Actually I wish it was just Rudd’s sense of humour that his colleagues objected to instead of his appalling behaviour the last 3 years.

  27. @Player One/88

    In my view I don’t see the need to change leaders at present time, however if Rudd instead of hiding in the shadows scheming like some people on PB do, and actually does it.

    Then by all means do so.

  28. [I look in the eyes of the PM and see a leader, standing firm, dispaying immense courage.]

    I think we know the only thing is that has kept Gillard standing upright for a while now.

  29. Rossmore@85

    Chins up comrades. When the Tories gloat, when Bemused and his acolytes hyperventilate, when Piers self-immolates, I look in the eyes of the PM and see a leader, standing firm, dispaying immense courage.

    Time for a serious eye test.

  30. Speaking of the Insiders, how disgusting it was to see those crocodile tears of Macklin. The hypocrirical grub can try all she wants, but nothing is going to save Labor.

  31. Player One: Bemused has put all his credibility and eggs in one basket. His entire being currently is predicated on a Rudd return. His every waking moment is consumed with that Bronteseque passion. Every piece of news, political development is reframed as an argument for Ruddstoration. Well, if it turns him on, so be it……

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