Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: The primary votes are 31% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-45 to 49-43, and Kevin Rudd’s lead over Gillard is up from 61-35 to 62-31.

UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard is down two on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 58%, while Tony Abbott edges towards respectability with approval up a point to 43% and disapproval down two to 53%. Toe-to-toe questions on the Labor leadership have Gillard leading Bob Carr 50-41, Bill Shorten 52-38 and Greg Combet 53-35. Among Labor voters, Rudd leads Gillard 51-48. Joe Hockey leads Wayne Swan as preferred Treasurer 48-40, which compares with 44-44 the last time the question was asked.

UPDATE 3: Tables from GhostWhoVotes. Also, support for the carbon price is at 40% against 55% opposed, while 3% think they are better off after compensation, 37% worse off and 57% unchanged.

UPDATE (18/3/13): Essential Research

Essential Research has Labor up for the second week in a row, their primary vote up from 34% to 35% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 47% and the Greens are steady on 9%. The poll also finds 58% supporting moves to reduce the number of foreign workers on 457 visas against only 24% opposed; an increase in support or the NBN since November from 69% to 73%; a fall in support for the mineral resources rent tax from 63% to 57%; 44% support for carbon pricing against 46% opposition; 48% believing a Coalition government would restore WorkChoices against 28% who think it unlikely, compared with 51% and 25% in September. A regular question on trust in various institutions found an across the board improvement since October, with the High Court and the ABC both up 11 points to 74% and 70%. Three recorded lower results than last time: religious organisations, down four to 27%, newspapers, down a point to 30%, online news media, down one to 27%, and political parties, down four to 12%.

UPDATE (19/3/13): Morgan multi-mode poll

Not yet sure how to read Morgan’s new “multi-mode” polls, which combine their existing face-to-face methodology with “online surveying and via SMS polling”, producing huge but apparently diminishing samples (3,982 this time). The results are promisingly in line with the overall trend, with Labor up 1.5% to 33%, the Coalition down 1% to 46% and the Greens down half a point to 10.5%. I am excluding this series from Bludgertrack until I get a sufficient results to produce bias measures by comparing its figures with the overall trend. The two-party results are fairly close together this time, respondent-allocation having the Coalition lead at 54.5-45.5 (down from 57.5-42.5) and the previous election method having it at 54-46 (down from 55.5-44.5), so hopefully the new methodology will mean an end to Morgan’s curious behaviour on this score.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,211 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 58 of 65
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  1. It’s not Crean.

    See here:

    [AQUARIUS. Today’s carefree commitment all too often becomes tomorrow’s burden, so be sure that you really want it before you saddle yourself with more than you may want to carry. This does not mean avoid commitment altogether, but that many call and only a few should be chosen.]

  2. bluepill@2834


    Ok.. honesty how.

    How many here on PB can honestly say that Conroy (and by extension/leadership responsibility), Gillard, have handled this week’s Media proposals well politically?

    Hand on heart now, diehards.

    Gee, I don’t know. Are they getting passed? That’s usually a pretty good sign of how they’re being handled.

  3. BluePill

    [have handled this week’s Media proposals well politically?]

    It’s all about getting legislation passed.

    Not looking stylish.

  4. [Media bosses motto “stuff us around with these media laws Gillard, and we will show you what happens when we flex our muscles”]
    Oh FFS, you really think Laurie Oakes just goes on TV each night and says whatever the financial equity firm that owns Channel 9 tell him to say?

  5. Bluepill #2840, that would be in contrast to all those virtuous Tory Gvts here and around the world who keep driving their economies into recession (and incidentally sacking those leeches called teachers, nurses, doctors) to please business journalists who dont know any economics, presumably? Scoreboard, sonny. Take the black pill.

  6. Shorten is being advised to hold back too.

    [TAURUS. The only limits you have are those you impose upon yourself, and now is not the time to do that. Think big, not only for yourself but for those involved with you, so that win-win situations can blossom and lead to ever-expanding possibilities for all concerned. When you invest in others, you invest in yourself.]

  7. Wow Giz Watson has lost her upper house seat in WA.

    How many elections now is this where the Greens have gone backwards?

    Maybe the leader who should be under pressure to explain why she should keep her job is Christine Milne.

  8. Kinkajou
    Sinkers is indeed still breathing. My son spotted him on a flight to Port Macquarie a few weeks ago. Perhaps he will stagger to the rescue of the National Party.

    Bananaby is a NE boy, born in Tamworth and raised in Woolbrook (between Tamworth and Walcha). I think he still owns the family property there. The poor schmucks in St George will be dropped like hot potatoes if Bananaby decides to take on New England. It will be all about ‘local boy comes home’.

  9. Hi Ick hows life as a nice guy…bet you cant wait til all this bullshits over and you can really cut loose again. Who remind me of….oh him!!Naturellment

  10. [PHILLIP COOREY Chief political correspondent
    Some of Julia Gillard’s staunchest supporters are losing hope the Prime Minister will lead Labor to the September 14 election, conceding for the first time that Kevin Rudd is a handful of votes away from a majority of Labor MPs and closing.

    Three senior sources, all close to Ms Gillard and all of whom say they will vote for her in a spill whatever the circumstances, told The Australian Financial Review they believed momentum was shifting towards Mr Rudd. Asked if Ms Gillard could hold on, one of the supporters said: “It’s hard to see.’’]
    Sounds rather serious

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/pm_support_crumbling_7qOoB7r1WrqDQZGKRkYoUJ

  11. I defy any of the media haters here to read the following piece and not feel just a little ashamed. This is a prime example of the way governments try to suppress information, and how journalists bravely expose it.

    Lindsay Murdoch is a standard issue Australian journalist, having spent most of this time at The Age. What he does abroad, plenty of his colleagues do in Canberra and elsewhere.

    In short, Murdoch exposed US military lies about the use of napalm in Iraq.

    http://www.watoday.com.au/comment/us-tried-to-napalm-truth-in-justifying-the-iraq-war-20130318-2gb0v.html

  12. Bluepill,

    Tim?

    And CTar1…

    Very amusing, firstly, and ewww, secondly, if I read you right.

    Crikey Whitey,

    I will consider it, actually. But I have a condition that probably prevent me getting in.

  13. alias

    The picture that emerges is that nobody really knows how this is going to end. There are too many variables and too many competing agendas. That’s why the betting markets on the leadership are not moving; the wheel is in spin. No one seems to have enough authority to take charge, to steer the ship in one direction, and the only chap capable of doing that – Rudd – has vowed not to do so. Kind of fascinating really.

    So the media don’t know what’s going on and have labelled the chaos in the media as Labor chaos, what’s new? How does the media’s ignorance lead you to conclude that ship Labor is Rudderless?

  14. Bluepill 2840 happy to put my hand up. It is a high stakes game the PM is playing, . But that is what great leaders do. Sometimes they go against received wisdom … And put themselves and their career on the line. If Gillard can get the reforms up it will be a significant achievement against all the odds and the combined opposition of pretty much all the MSM. If she doesn’t she will be bruised politically, but not for want of trying. I’d rather she go down fighting, than taking the line of least resistance.

  15. the Crean rumour is just so funny when you think about it.

    Any of us who have been around Simon, both now and when he was LOTO and even in his ACTU days know that (sorry to say this) he is boring as batshit. He sometimes fires up, but 90% of the time it is and endless drone, and even if you listen hard, there is not much there.

    I think when he got booted as LOTO he had a record low of 8% approval rating.

  16. muttleymcgee@2825

    Bemused:

    If I was a Liberal I would be wanting her to stay.


    If you were (sic) a Labor supporter you would be wanting her to stay.

    Weren’t you due back this evening?
    You will miss your evening medications and become even more deranged.

  17. When Sid Maher, Chris Kenny, Ben Fordham and Paul Murray rabbit on about leadershit it’s just a fart in the wind. Means nothing.

    But Laurie Oakes doesn’t enter the fray unless something is afoot. And to a lesser extent Farr.

  18. alias

    I defy any of the media haters here to read the following piece and not feel just a little ashamed. This is a prime example of the way governments try to suppress information, and how journalists bravely expose it.

    So who is it now that’s extrapolating from one journalist? Because one journalist does good work we’re supposed to give all of them a break?

  19. MM

    Sonny?? That’s funny just by itself. I’m quite flattered.

    Our government currently seems no less chaotic, no less dysfunctional than the one which was so bad that the leader had to be well.. nuff said.

    Aussie punters are not mugs. Our democracy generally works pretty well according to those that look from afar.

    The democratic hand on the trap door in our nation is rarely without good reason. Certainly PBers assured me of this in 2007 when Kevin rolled in. Some punters.. more or less, don’t you think? Even if you don’t like what they currently think.

  20. [It will be all about ‘local boy comes home’.]

    I wonder if he’ll lose that Qld accent and at least try to say intelligent things if he runs in NE. I’ve always been of the view he was faking both his accent and his ignorance in in order to appeal to those in rural Qld who think anyone who talks posh and knows stuff can’t be trusted.

  21. [Our government currently seems no less chaotic, no less dysfunctional than the one which was so bad that the leader had to be well.. nuff said.]

    You mean the leader who lost his own seat? 😉

  22. [I think when he got booted as LOTO he had a record low of 8% approval rating.]
    Well for most of 2002 he had Labor closer to the Coalition than Gillard has had Labor for the last year and a half.

    And back then Newspoll was using a different method to distribute preferences which was generally worse for Labor.

  23. confessions@2859


    Wow Giz Watson has lost her upper house seat in WA.

    How many elections now is this where the Greens have gone backwards?

    Maybe the leader who should be under pressure to explain why she should keep her job is Christine Milne.

    They ought to consider talking about the environment once in a while. That’s why people started voting for them in the first place.

  24. [But Laurie Oakes doesn’t enter the fray unless something is afoot. And to a lesser extent Farr.]
    I agree. Oakes has a lot better sources.

    But no, apparently he just reports what his bosses at Channel 9 tell him to report.

  25. mimhoff:
    [TAURUS. The only limits you have are those you impose upon yourself, and now is not the time to do that. Think big,…]

    I am a Taurus – how did you know 😀

  26. [Andrew Elder ‏@awelder Protected account
    @preciouspress Three guys who beat Beazley have bitten the dust (Howard, Rudd, Latham) … #beazley13 @sspencer_63 @paulyt_aus]

    Beazley!!! 😆

  27. TP @ 2837
    ” Go to someone with no personality at all so much so it will look like Labor has no leader.”

    So it’s about personalities and not policy is it.?

    I’ll ask you again.
    What are the policy differences between PM Gillard and Rudd.
    From my perspective and point of view there isn’t any.I have’nt
    read or heard any public discourse in the media etc that they are at loggerheads over policy.
    So we continue down the path taken by the last NSW Labor govt and
    ratf*ck a PM (or in the NSW case, Premiers) all because of the polls.?

  28. alias@2811

    Installing Simon Crean is like admitting there is no prospect whatsoever of winning the election but some prospect of preventing an absolute slaughter on Sept 14.

    Tough choice tonight, but … Bingo!

    The adjudicators have decided that this is close enough to a “save the furniture” comment to be a winner – especially as the turkeys in the meat tray are now going off and beginning to smell.

    Anyone who picked “alias” tonight, please come and remove your meat tray from reception. You may need nose plugs.

    Also, one of the turkeys appears to be still twitching.

  29. alias,

    You are being disingenuous (what a surprise!).

    No one is saying there is no place for the media. No one is saying that the media does not do good work. What we are saying is that the constant reports on ALP leadership has been wrong. That is a fact. A leadership spill on Friday is near impossible, as already outlined, so Oakes is wrong. Bob Gosford is wrong, as for a spill or challenge to occur tomorrow, we would already know about it. Crean doesn’t want to be leader, and probably doesn’t have anywhere near the support needed, so Farr is wrong.

    Hartcher ran a story based on what people who aren’t in Caucus “thought” Carr’s position was, and with Butler, he simply made it up. Uhlmann made much of the media bills being a test of the Government, well, it looks like they’ll pass.

    Idiot.

  30. feeney@2850

    alias @ 2828

    Good post, mate.

    Talk of Crean (if true) would have to be a diversion.

    Nice bloke, and all those cliches, but yesterday’s man.

    It’s Rudd or Gillard, or I’ll find it hard to work for the party.

    Maybe a Rudd / Gillard ticket would run against Crean and prevail. 😛

  31. Aguirre:

    Agreed.

    The galling thing for WA voters is that those shooters and fishers gain an upper house seat. Thankfully they don’t hold the BoP and so will be largely irrelevent.

  32. the MSM are so sh*tty that they missed the last leadership change that they are falling over each other to predict the next one. There should be a 7th media bill to compel them to report policy and not try to be kingmakers!

  33. [The Australian Financial Review confirmed reports that the Aged Care Minister Mark Butler, who convenes the South Australian Left, had defected to the Rudd camp.
    ]

    Hmmm

  34. [The adjudicators have decided that this is close enough to a “save the furniture” comment to be a winner – especially as the turkeys in the meat tray are now going off and beginning to smell.]
    This makes no sense whatsoever.

    If the caucus decides to change leader, but they don’t think the leader will win, then why would they change to anyone other than Rudd?

    He has already had the job, so it would be much easier to explain the change.

    If Rudd does become leader again he should offer Gillard a senior ministry. Even Treasury.

  35. [SENIOR Labor figures tonight are pushing Simon Crean to take over and end the damaging Julia Gillard-Kevin Rudd leadership impasse.

    SENIOR Murdoch press figures tonight are pushing a “Simon Crean to take over” story so as to continue damaging the Labor government as much as they can.]
    Crean as LOTO, quite remarkably, had a Newspoll “net satisfaction” rating lower than Abbott

  36. sprocket_@2868

    I think when he got booted as LOTO he had a record low of 8% approval rating.

    No but Crean did get some very bad ratings.

    In his last Newspoll he recorded a preferred prime-minister score of 14% (at the time the worst ever, though that record was later smashed by Nelson). He also recorded an approval of 22%, the equal second-worst behind Downer in Newspoll history.

  37. [Vote 1 for Barnaby Joyce, Deputy Prime Minister.
    What an international joke that would be!]
    According to Barnaby Joyce, billions of Australians support him.

  38. [Oh that will really help, won’t it?
    What genius is behind that?]

    Murdoch. Can’t you work it out for yourself?

    Get on it, Sherlock!

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