GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month. More to follow.
UPDATE: The primary votes are 31% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-45 to 49-43, and Kevin Rudd’s lead over Gillard is up from 61-35 to 62-31.
UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard is down two on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 58%, while Tony Abbott edges towards respectability with approval up a point to 43% and disapproval down two to 53%. Toe-to-toe questions on the Labor leadership have Gillard leading Bob Carr 50-41, Bill Shorten 52-38 and Greg Combet 53-35. Among Labor voters, Rudd leads Gillard 51-48. Joe Hockey leads Wayne Swan as preferred Treasurer 48-40, which compares with 44-44 the last time the question was asked.
UPDATE 3: Tables from GhostWhoVotes. Also, support for the carbon price is at 40% against 55% opposed, while 3% think they are better off after compensation, 37% worse off and 57% unchanged.
UPDATE (18/3/13): Essential Research
Essential Research has Labor up for the second week in a row, their primary vote up from 34% to 35% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 47% and the Greens are steady on 9%. The poll also finds 58% supporting moves to reduce the number of foreign workers on 457 visas against only 24% opposed; an increase in support or the NBN since November from 69% to 73%; a fall in support for the mineral resources rent tax from 63% to 57%; 44% support for carbon pricing against 46% opposition; 48% believing a Coalition government would restore WorkChoices against 28% who think it unlikely, compared with 51% and 25% in September. A regular question on trust in various institutions found an across the board improvement since October, with the High Court and the ABC both up 11 points to 74% and 70%. Three recorded lower results than last time: religious organisations, down four to 27%, newspapers, down a point to 30%, online news media, down one to 27%, and political parties, down four to 12%.
UPDATE (19/3/13): Morgan multi-mode poll
Not yet sure how to read Morgan’s new “multi-mode” polls, which combine their existing face-to-face methodology with “online surveying and via SMS polling”, producing huge but apparently diminishing samples (3,982 this time). The results are promisingly in line with the overall trend, with Labor up 1.5% to 33%, the Coalition down 1% to 46% and the Greens down half a point to 10.5%. I am excluding this series from Bludgertrack until I get a sufficient results to produce bias measures by comparing its figures with the overall trend. The two-party results are fairly close together this time, respondent-allocation having the Coalition lead at 54.5-45.5 (down from 57.5-42.5) and the previous election method having it at 54-46 (down from 55.5-44.5), so hopefully the new methodology will mean an end to Morgan’s curious behaviour on this score.
They’ve talked the bill out for tonight, so a deal can be done overnight about what the crossbench will and won’t support.
[I just wish some people here could be air-dropped into a totalitarian state for a week to have a taste of what it feels like to be starved of information provided by the likes of Laurie Oakes.]
If my choices were ‘information’ from Laurie Oakes or perhaps Laurie plus all of newscorp or a totalitarian regime it would be a really had choice, either dumb and misinformed or capricious deprivation of human rights, it would still be a tough choice between two hells.
Rummel..
I most definitely don’t want to see the media reforms pass, but I am merely acknowledging that it would be a victory to JG if she pulls it off, especially after the diabolical way Conroy handled the thing.
Oh and Captain Peacock died at an impressive age of 92
[ who has rescued the mess she allowed Conroy to create.]
Or who had it worked how to do it from the start.
too smart for latika to guess that many moves in advance
bluepill
John W Howard as GG and PIMA 🙂
[hughriminton hughriminton @hughriminton
Barnaby Joyce tonight – if invited, I will be the National Party candidate to take on @TonyWindsorMP in New England. Details #tenlate
9:32 PM – 19 Mar 13]
[Wow, hysteria much.
What does your first paragraph have to do with the second? Honestly, get a grip.]
How sure of a leadership spill does a journalist need to be before they can report it?
Or who had it worked how to do it from the start.
so far it is going to plan.
[For crying out loud Scarpat, why would a guy like Laurie Oakes make stuff up? I mean I understand that it’s fashionable around here to believe in these exciting conspiracy theories, especially since we’re all part of the inter-tubes and that’s the old media, blah blah blah.]
No conspiracy. It’s obvious that the press gallery are being gamed.
The division has been withdrawn.
Please explain …
[I just wish some people here could be air-dropped into a totalitarian state for a week]
Like the UK?
Leroy
Posted Tuesday, March 19, 2013 at 9:33 pm | Permalink
hughriminton hughriminton @hughriminton
Barnaby Joyce tonight – if invited, I will be the National Party candidate to take on @TonyWindsorMP in New England. Detail
————————————————–
Joyce is hated as much as torbay is around northern tablelands
[especially after the diabolical way Conroy handled the thing.]
The matter isn’t even over, it is as stupid as saying a football match that is 3 goals 5 at quarter time has had one side playing diabolical. It is a diabolically stupid thing to say. Who is to say that it wasn’t always the plan for Conroy to go hard and the PM to negotiate at the end.
Bluepill on your second point … There seems to be an emerging consensus that the PIMA should be a three member ‘board’, nominated by third party professional bodies for fixed terms, thereby taking the sitting gov out of the appointment process. Seems a sensible suggestion.
[How sure of a leadership spill does a journalist need to be before they can report it?]
Oakes has not reported a leadership spill.
He’s delivered a news report which he’s then had to qualify with IF this and MAYBE that on twitter.
Get a grip!
CTar1
[Or who had it worked how to do it from the start.]
Looking more and more like a Conroy Gillard good cop bad cop .
How sure of a leadership spill does a journalist need to be before they can report it?
It seems to be driven by the pressure to not be scooped by a rival.
[The division has been withdrawn.
Please explain …]
The Government is going to let the House adjourn so it can continue negotiating tonight and in the morning.
just looking at the Broadcasting Bills, this is the one voted on and got up 75-71
BROADCASTING LEGISLATION AMENDMENT (CONVERGENCE REVIEW AND OTHER MEASURES) BILL
[Part of a package of six bills in relation to the media sector, the bill amends the: Broadcasting Services Act 1992 to: provide that no additional commercial television broadcasting licences will be made available to enable a fourth commercial television network; impose an Australian content transmission quota on commercial television broadcasting licensees; enable Australian content sub-quotas to be satisfied by any transmission by a licensee; provide that one hour of a first release Australian drama program counts as two hours for the purposes of a transmission quota; enable the minister to direct the Australian Communications and Media Authority in relation to its program standards making powers; and remove the requirement for a review of content and captioning rules applicable to multi-channelled television broadcasting services; Australian Broadcasting Corporation Act 1983 to: include digital media services in the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s (ABC) charter; prohibit certain advertising on the ABC’s digital media services; and provide that the ABC or its prescribed companies are the only providers of Commonwealth-funded international broadcasting services; and Special Broadcasting Service Act 1991 to: require the minister to have regard to the need to ensure that at least one of the Special Broadcasting Service (SBS) non-executive directors is an Indigenous person; and include digital media services in SBS’s charter.]
and this one passed on the voices
TELEVISION LICENCE FEES AMENDMENT BILL 2013 (cuts TV license fees by 50%)
this one being debated now (just adjourned)
BROADCASTING LEGISLATION AMENDMENT (NEWS MEDIA DIVERSITY) BILL 2013
[Part of a package of six bills in relation to the media sector, the bill amends the: Australian Communications and Media Authority Act 2005 to enable the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) to provide certain information to the Public Interest Media Advocate; and Broadcasting Services Act 1992 to: provide for a public interest test, administered by the Public Interest Media Advocate, to apply to transactions between registered news media voices of national significance; and establish the Register of News Media Voices to be administered by the ACMA.]
Oh yes WeWantPaul, that’s the tiresomely fashionable view.
So let’s make it a year, not a week. By the three month mark you would be salivating over the prospect of reading any Western newspaper, including a News Ltd publication.
It is just too easy and too lazy to deride entire newspapers because you don’t like this columnist or that columnist, or feel upset at the slant of the reporting. You need to have a global and historical view, to understand fully what it means to be denied a free press, in order to see papers, flawed as they are, like The Australian or The Daily Telegraph in a proper perspective.
That should make you happy MB.
Will joyce be foolish enough to end his career , he wasnt last time
[It seems to be driven by the pressure to not be scooped by a rival.]
So you think Oakes just made it all up in case Channel 7, 10, SBS, ABC made it up first?
Oakes is very experienced and has better sources than most.
Psephos Who do you think will write the real story about 24 June 2010?
Oh, I hope Barnaby is parachuted in. Windsor would humiliate him. It would be glorious. Gitcha popcorn.
Barnaby in NE!
What were Windsor’s words the last time Barnaby talked about being the Nats NE candidate? Something like bring it on.
WeWantPaul @2765
Nonsense. Why then did Simon Crean make it plain as day he’s very annoyed with the process over the media reform laws? No matter what the outcome, Conroy cleared messed it up big time, in the way it was handled.
davidwh
i think ne is likely to see a liberal candidate instead of nationals candidate
it wont do them any good
abbott treatment of slipper done the damage to them around those parts
SENIOR Labor figures tonight are pushing Simon Crean to take over and end the damaging Julia Gillard-Kevin Rudd leadership impasse.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/is-simon-crean-the-man-to-rescue-labor/story-fncynjr2-1226601010695#ixzz2NytL0tFR
Rummel
JWH.. Don’t distract him.. get him to come straight back to his seat of Bennelong and get some real government back!! I liked that little guy. 🙂
[For crying out loud Scarpat, why would a guy like Laurie Oakes make stuff up?]
Why would any of the press make stuff up, why would they hack phones, why would they indulge in a disgracefully dishonest political attack on the greens when they are meant to be a media organization not a political party.
Because as an industry the are immoral scum happy to hide behind the pathetic ‘freedom of the press’ to muck in the gutter without needing to contribute anything to society or democracy.
Perhaps we need something, I don’t know like a public interest test. the only failure of the govt on media is not to go a lot lot harder.
ShowsOn
[Oakes is very experienced and has better sources than most.]
Dang the loss of subbies is a problem. It should have read.
[Oakes is very experienced and has better souses than most.]
Yawn – this from MAlcolm Farr, probably what Bemused has been alluding to all night
[SENIOR Labor figures tonight are pushing Simon Crean to take over and end the damaging Julia Gillard-Kevin Rudd leadership impasse.
Mr Crean, a former Opposition Leader, is being promoted as a stabiliser to take Labor to the September 14 election.
And there is growing pressure for the leadership issue to be resolved before Parliament rises on Thursday.
“The critical factor will be what people think their constituents will say to them when they go home,” said a Labor source.
In February last year Mr Crean, Regional Development Minister, helped smother Mr Rudd’s attempt in a Caucus ballot to oust Ms Gillard.
But he has now decided a change of leadership could be necessary.
Today Mr Crean criticised the process backed by the Prime Minister to launch the media reform package. ]
http://mobile.news.com.au/national-news/is-simon-crean-the-man-to-rescue-labor/story-fncynjr2-1226601010695
poroti
[Looking more and more like a Conroy Gillard good cop bad cop]
The PM has lots of stuff to do.
The idea that the best use of her time is to let others have a go first and only get stuck in herself when things are not going well enough doesn’t seem to occur to the Press.
If anything, there has been a slight shift to Gillard in the betting to lead Labor.
Rudd $1.60
Gillard $2.50
Definitely no move to Rudd after Oakes’ comment.
HoR still sitting. Adjournment negatived.
[Nonsense. Why then did Simon Crean make it plain as day he’s very annoyed with the process over the media reform laws? No matter what the outcome, Conroy cleared messed it up big time, in the way it was handled.]
Crean didn’t say ‘very annoyed’. You are talking news corp talking points and looking as stupid as the media pigs who spoke to the senate.
So is that it for the night re the Press regulations. Will there be anymore or do we wait for the morning?
bluepill
JWH should run in windsors seat 🙂
the slipper case had more impact on the nationals and coalition they they expected in the norther tablelands ares of new england
it will be interesting if other regional blame abbott more for slipper , as this area did
Ha Ha. Crean. Leader? Again? The ALP is truly deranged if this has even a skerrik of truth.
Tony Abbott could go on a six month cruise and still come back and win the election. Actually, given that his personal polling is still about as poor as Gillard, it might actually improve the coalition polls!! 🙂
[SENIOR Labor figures tonight are pushing Simon Crean to take over and end the damaging Julia Gillard-Kevin Rudd leadership impasse.]
SENIOR Murdoch press figures tonight are pushing a “Simon Crean to take over” story so as to continue damaging the Labor government as much as they can.
2763
CTar1
[>I just wish some people here could be air-dropped into a totalitarian state for a week
Like the UK?]
He he he…
and Simon Crean’s negative comments today were taken out of context – he spent the bulk of the interview praising the PM
its a game of pass-th-bullshit. Hartcher to Oakes to Farr – all being wound up by rats McClelland, Griffin, Fitzgibbon and Mark Bishop under the auspices of Rudd.
ShowsOn@2759
Hmmm, and what if there is a leadership spill and no-one puts their hand up. 😆
2768
poroti
[Looking more and more like a Conroy Gillard good cop bad cop .]
Looks that way to me.
Baaaarnaby BRING IT ON!!!
Win win if we can lose him
Get onto my New England dudes to fix