Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research has the Greens up a point at the expense of Labor, while a JWS Research automated phone poll suggests the swing against Labor is biting where it can least afford it.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).

Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.

We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  3. [“@Drag0nista: #Ashby case adjourned in Fair Work Commission. Rares appeal to be heard next week]

    First return of the appeal probably before a registrar for case management rather than hearing.

    The costs orders have not been made yet which Slipper seeks against Harmer. This may form part of any ultimate appeal

  10. Only just tuned into PB.

    Can anyone tell me what the political advantage is in announcing the date now?

    Is it to force the Liberals into campaign mode?

    Get the punters to sit up and think?

    Get the media to start talking policy?

  11. Malcolm Turnbull ‏@TurnbullMalcolm

    Deeply disappointed that Julia Gillard chose to hold the election on Yom Kippur – the most solemn and sacred day of the Jewish year.

  14. It’s actually quite clever I think. It removes one of the classic column fillers in an election year. It also gives the Tory filth eight months to put costings in. If they don’t do it, they look cowardly.

  15. [Deeply disappointed that Julia Gillard chose to hold the election on Yom Kippur – the most solemn and sacred day of the Jewish year.]

    As Julia said, you can vote before election day.

  16. What were the other possible dates and what were the likely problems with them?

    I wouldn’t have been surprised had it been in early October.

  18. [Joe Hockey ‏@JoeHockey
    Election on Sept. 14 is before the final budget outcome is revealed for the current year.]

    It’s nearly a month longer than a three-year term. Does he think it should be even longer?

  21. Cud … Off the top of my head ….

    Nails finally the whole LNP ‘election now’ strategy.
    Puts the pressure on the Tories to release their policies.
    And a clear signal that the ALP can win that debate.
    And left field, perhaps the PM got wind of an LNP leadership spill. Suspect this locks the LNP in with Abbott.
    Machiavelli would be proud of her.

  22. From a technical point of view it’s not official until the PM goes to the GG and the government goes into caretaker mode? So it could change at any time?

  25. [Actually it gives 8 months for leadership challenge, for Abbott to get new job to cover his mortgage.]

    Now a date has been set, Abbott is locked in. Maybe that was the aim! Now only Julia Gillard can stop Abbott getting into the lodge lol. Talk about forcing the wavering labor types in behind you, like swallowing razor blades over a sword.

  26. What a speech, fantastic.

    But our media, oh my god. She had to explain how pre-polling to one hack. It’s going to be dates framed as longest campaign rather than certainty and pissing on a Jewish holiday .. and glasses.

    I guess it’s balance, we got good effective government, thus we need shithouse pre-school media for balance.

  27. Just got the email from ALP HQ to party members about the PM announcing the election date.

    Keeping this quiet before the announcement was a major achievement for the campaign organisation. If that’s an indication of how well it’s going to be run it augurs well for a good result.

  30. [Malcolm Turnbull ‏@TurnbullMalcolm

    Deeply disappointed that Julia Gillard chose to hold the election on Yom Kippur – the most solemn and sacred day of the Jewish year.]

    Just imagine what she would have done if she WASN’T in thrall to the zionist lobby?

  40. Yom Kippur 2013 will be the 40th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, when a tough female Prime Minister, after initial setbacks, threw the forces of evil back over the Canal and won a great victory.

  45. rummel, those are minor issues that have no electoral impact. It’s almost a pity there wasn’t some serious political crisis that she could have knocked out of the news.

    [From a technical point of view it’s not official until the PM goes to the GG and the government goes into caretaker mode? So it could change at any time?]

    Are you serious? She has locked herself in now.

  47. guytaur not desperate. I am just not sure that actually announcing a date means much while the government continues so changes to leadership or the date can still happen.

  50. On twitter

    Jewish voters have 8 months to get their pre-polling organised. Orthodox Jews can never vote on a Saturday, any Saturday. #npc #auspol

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