Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research has the Greens up a point at the expense of Labor, while a JWS Research automated phone poll suggests the swing against Labor is biting where it can least afford it.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).

Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.

We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  3. SULC ‏@SydneyUniLibs

    JG spurning more lies. Of course, no mention of the $250 billion debt that she has lugged on all of us. Bugger off! #auspol
    Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas

  4. zoidlord I will defend Newman over his performance during the past week the same as I praised Bligh’s performance in 2011. No apologies for that.

  6. Katie Walsh ‏@katiewalshAFR

    @OakeyMP: “Campaigning & electioneering throughout these 9 final sitting weeks” serves political party not national interests. FYI Abbott.
    Retweeted by Robert Oakeshott MP

  7. “@samanthamaiden: Gillards decision to call Sept 14 election will ratchet up pressure on Tony Abbott to release policies – that’s the tactic.”

  8. @davidwh/954

    There is not much done right for Newman, question, why do we need to suffer for water usage? That’s because LNP lack of investment in Water Infrastructure.

  13. Q4 – Budget budget budget, come on, commit to a surplus, please, we’ve got to get at you somehow. And re election date, are you a party dictator? Not sensible.

  15. [SULC ‏@SydneyUniLibs

    JG spurning more lies. Of course, no mention of the $250 billion debt that she has lugged on all of us. Bugger off! #auspol
    Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas]

    Shouldn’t at least one member of the Sydney Uni Libs understand the meaning of ‘spurn’?

  17. A good idea to name the election date and clear the air on that one. Unfortunately for all of us, all of 2013 was always going to be a de facto election campaign so the political hoodoo of long campaigns is probably neutralised anyway. September 14 good choice of date – there can be no accusations of hanging around longer than necessary.

  21. Q6 – Are there some things Governments just can’t fix? And are you going to compensate stolen generations? First part dumb, second part ok until the snipe about, “or can’t you afford it?”

  27. Oakey and Windsor quick out of the blocks to support announcing election day. Should we check the metadata on their press releases to see if they had a heads-up?

  30. Not a bad move. Now she should come out and say at day 1 the election will be about policy and the economy, not personality and assorted media bumfluff like ‘gaffes’.

    Gillard and Milne should also remind the public that only two parties intend to minimise the potential for climate change-related disasters: ALP & GRNs.

  37. “@broomstick33: Press Gallery has been comprehensively bowled. Stumbling over questions. Mental derangement. PM totally in charge, and smiling.”

  43. Well good on her. She made some useful statements about a policy election too, as I for one had certainly been hoping.

    Cue Abbott blathering about longest evah election campaign – and panic in the LNPs sheds as they find themselves nude of policy.

  44. Q11 – Election costings release timing. Aged care. They’re all two-part questions, none of which are related to each other. Again, little substance.

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