Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research has the Greens up a point at the expense of Labor, while a JWS Research automated phone poll suggests the swing against Labor is biting where it can least afford it.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).

Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.

We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 25 of 25
1 24 25
  1. now this tweet

    “@ABCNews24: Rudd’s fmr leadership campaign strategist Bruce Hawker: I don’t think anyone is in the business of being about to challenge Julia Gillard.”

  2. @dividwh/1198

    If you been watching these past couple of years the parliament wasn’t like it use to be especially the lack on bipartisan support.

  3. If you were a state premier, would you really want an Abbott victory. Since he’s going to have great difficulty finding “savings” it’s a fair bit that one of the places he’ll be looking at very hard is payments to the states. They will be screwed and their own re-election made more difficult. Expect lots of faint praise from the LNP state governments from here on in – maintain the facade but hope like hell Abbott gets done over.

  4. guytaur@1200

    now this tweet

    “@ABCNews24: Rudd’s fmr leadership campaign strategist Bruce Hawker: I don’t think anyone is in the business of being about to challenge Julia Gillard.”

    And about time some morons on PB caught on to that and stopped ranting about “Ruddstoration”. Rudd will not challenge and that has been the case since about March last year. You can all lay off the ritual Rudd hatred.

  5. Rex Douglas
    [What a hapless, hopeless performance by Wilkie in this presser – totally floundering]
    I suppose it’s a bit like when you stand in the dock and the judge pronounces sentence. He can see his fate, he knows the date, and he’s having trouble coming to terms with it. Goodbye Andrew

  6. My guess is the MSM will write this up for a while as longest election campaign, public sick of politics etc etc; can’t come soon enough.

    After that initial thoughtless reaction, the focus will change to policy.

    I think it is on balance a good move, despite the likely cynicism. People will want to know what they are voting for. It will be more difficult for the Libs to trot out the usual line about “We will deliver our fully costed policies in good time before the election.”

    I think it will have the possibility of clearing away the fog that Abbott and Credlin have built.

    It will certainly put the focus on Abbott’s speech tomorrow.

    It has the added bonus of tending to lock the Libs into Abbott. A two edged sword that, about which I am ambivalent. One the one hand, it is frightening to think of Abbott PM. But on the other, he remains a strong plus for Labor.

  7. zoidlord (1169):

    Your political compass is somewhat astray jdging by your assessment of me.

    Puff, the Magic Dragon (1183):

    Well you can vote in any polling booth in your state or territory, but not quite in any polling booth in the land. If you’re interstate, there are some booths available for interstate voters but they’re not always that handy. Best to do a prepoll vote in your own state or a postal vote.

  8. Toorak toff,
    thanks for that, i have not voted interstate before. It would behove the AEC to set up a booth that does offer it close to the footy grounds.

  9. 1173
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    [well done PMJG. Love the glasses too.]
    As a middle-aged hetero male, I’d say it was a good look. 🙂

    [Is that the “Real Julia” look SK?]
    Damn sight better a view than on offer by the increasingly ‘Real Tones’.

  10. 1187
    Greensborough Growler
    [Looks like a great market to arbitrage.]

    I just knew a PBer would be watching for that point in the market. 🙂

  11. You girls shouldn’t be too tough on DavidWH. He’s a Lib and all that, but not entirely one-eyed. I thought he’d been sharper than Mod Lib on guessing how things might pan out.

    Yesterday I think he said wtte that Gillard had made a lot of mistakes in 2010-2011, but has not repeated them, and seems unlikely to in the coming year.

    I might not agree about all of those ‘mistakes’, but that’s not a bad assessment on where things are now:not nearly as bad as the Ruddsters and Mod Lib and the like would suggest.

    Politically, the hardest decisions have been made and bedded down. In addition, there’s some very positive things falling into place. It’s mostly good news from here on. There will still be media nitpicking like Peris or Tim, but basically they’re just media charades and unlikely to affect voters.

    Economically, we’re still the envy of the world on all the key indicators.

  12. Have I missed Abbott’s presser?
    I dozed off during Hawker’s chat and woke to the harsh shrieking of Chrissie Pyne’s distortions of the truth.

    How do their minds work? “The PM refused to give details”. No she bloody didn’t.

Comments Page 25 of 25
1 24 25

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *