The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).
Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.
We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.
sortius @sortius
@TurnbullMalcolm The LNP called an election on Leif Erikson Day, Rememberence of Ataturk Day, & Lachit Divas, where were you then? #auspol
sortius @sortius
The power of Wikipedia, showing the glaring hypocrisy of @TurnbullMalcolm in one easy search. Turkish community is far bigger than Jewish.
George Bludger @GeorgeBludger
.@TonyAbbottMHR The timing of that “mini campaign” was a masterstroke… well, wasn’t it?
George Bludger @GeorgeBludger
o_O => “@Simon_Cullen: The All Ords is up 0.1% overall for the day. (Although it has gone down slightly since PM announced election date.)”
Seriously though – this is on during footy finals, a lot of people will potentially be travelling interstate on the second weekend in September…
This should be fun
“@abcnews: Oppn Leader Tony Abbott calls press conference to respond to election announcement at 3.40pm AEDT #ausvotes”
George Bludger @GeorgeBludger
Will he say refuse the date? “@KarenMMiddleton: LOTO Abbott will respond to the PM’s announcement of Sep 14 as election day @ 3.40pm”
[Seriously though – this is on during footy finals, a lot of people will potentially be travelling interstate on the second weekend in September…]
They can vote BEFORE the election day. Seriously, it isn’t that difficult a concept.
zoidlord
[.@TonyAbbottMHR The timing of that “mini campaign” was a masterstroke… well, wasn’t it?]
Tone’s Mini just got run over by a Mack .
I persoanally like this date. It means I get the NBN locked in before Libs can do anything about it. 🙂 🙂 🙂
@guytaur/1158
Too bad about the 2/3 of Australia though.
Pity people don’t see this.
Patrick,
Footy finals a furphy.
AFL have two games that wekend. One on Friday night and the other on Saturday night.
Can’t see that interfering with anyone’s Football enjoyment. Maybe could affect local football more.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
Election betting: Coalition backed as if unbeatable: Into $1.22; Labor $4.15.
“@kimogrady1: FFS. We have absentee voting AND separation of the church and state. Suck it up & drop the faux outrage #facepalm #auspol #YomKippur”
[Seriously though – this is on during footy finals, a lot of people will potentially be travelling interstate on the second weekend in September…]
If only there was some way that people travelling interstate on election day could vote…
Very good speech from Gillard.
Like the way she started off giving both the achievements of her government thus far, and the challenges it and the nation face.
It also killed off the idiotic ‘lack of vision’ meme, set the cat among the media and opposition pigeons, and dragged debate back towards policy and actual achievements where Labor have a clear advantage.
I predict confidently that Mod Lib will vote for Abbott 🙂
So its the next Yom Kippur war?
“@Ausflatfish: With Parliament’s last sitting day 27 June, Govt’s #dataretention proposals dead in water. Moot whether #natsecinquiry will report. #auspol”
Bad luck for Julia if a great window of opportunity – e.g. a leadership kerfuffle in the Opposition – is missed because of her pre-ordained election date.
@Toorak/1168
Don’t get your hopes up.
Labor had better hope that neither the Bulldogs or Tigers are in the NRL finals that weekend or Labor will lose half their voters in Western Sydney.
[Tone’s Mini just got run over by a Mack .]
To be topical, a Mack just ran up Tony’s Mini arse and gave it the finger.
$4.15 sounds like a good investment….won’t get any better ( doh! the pun)
well done PMJG.Love the glasses too.
Strap yourselves in, we are about to engage warp-drives.
Is that the “Real Julia” look SK?
davidwh
Sydney Wester Suburbs people are no more stupid than anyone else. They can multitask and arrange voting around it. Either prepolling or voting in half of day when not watching footy
[If only there was some way that people travelling interstate on election day could vote…]
I know they CAN vote, but will they?
I’m not complaining for my own benefit, just think it’s an odd weekend to pick – don’t governments usually avoid weekends with major sporting events and the like?
If, say, West Coast and Adelaide were to be playing finals in Melbourne that weekend, you’d have potentially 80,000 people out of their home state on the day of the election.
Sorry Puff not SK.
But they are easily distracted by footie guytaur.
PB
There’d be crickets at the MCG
Stephen T@1132
Well, I’m not confident the ALP will win, but you’ve painted a pretty accurate picture there of what life would be like if the Coalition win. It would probably take another 9 years to undo the damage an Abbott government would wreak in its single term in office.
Thankfully, with the polls the way they are now the Coalition would be unlikely to get control of the Senate, so that would limit the damage. And it wouldn’t take them long to realise that you can’t just massage the message when you’re actually running things.
Oh, and if the Coalition can’t get control of the Senate, that’ll give you something to be miserable about, so you’re sorted.
Patrick, considering your history of snarky contrarianism, I suspect no weekend would be good enough for you.
It’d be the Melbourne Crickets ground
You can walk into any polling station in the land and vote. I vote outside my electorate nearly every time. This is not the Roman census in Bethlehem, you know.
[Patrick, considering your history of snarky contrarianism, I suspect no weekend would be good enough for you.]
“Snarky contrarianism” aka “not immediately applauding every decision the Labor Party makes as a tactical masterstroke”.
guytaur@1154
He’ll be positive about it of course. It’s the New Tony after all.
Wonder if he’ll take any questions, or if he’ll just do his “bad government getting worse” schtick then walk off.
What a hapless, hopeless performance by Wilkie in this presser – totally floundering
Looks like a great market to arbitrage. Polls usually tighten towards election day.
So you can invest $1000 on Labor now at the $4.15 and $2000 on the Libs when the price tightens to a pre determined price. (e.g. $1.80).
That way you lock in a minimum profit of $600 if the Libs win or you win $1150 if Labor wins.
Davidwh,
As a woman I take great offence at that remark. How dare you suggest a woman changing her look is akin to deception. You Liberals have no shame, just like that cretin who leads you. He, btw, really does change his look to try to deceive people, so I ask you, which look is the Real Tony?
Patrick Bateman
In the “Slaying of the Rat” election I was interstate and cast a vote without problems at a local polling station. It was easy peasy .So being interstate is no excuse.
Abbott press conference sunnary: Election Now!
Now you won’t have to watch it.
summary
1145
bemused
[But, like most Australian PMs, she is no great orator.]
My understanding is that part of the reason she speaks like that is for the benefit of the hearing impaired, especially lip readers.
I heard a clearly written and clearly delivered speech, of considerable content and moment.
Not quite sure what you heard.
Can’t believe it. CanDo didn’t want to talk about election date – only wants to talk to PM about flood relief. A crack in the LNP endless politicking wall!
Just Me,
Oh Bemused got his memorial Kevin Rudd earwax stuffed to the gunnels of his ears.
ajm,
A bit like Chris Chritie of New Jersey just prior to the election.
[Wonder if he’ll take any questions, or if he’ll just do his “bad government getting worse” schtick then walk off.]
I’ll bet you London to a brick he’ll say WTTE: ‘I’m glad the Prime Minister has finally taken my advice to call an election.’
Then he’ll crack himself up and walk off.
Davidwh,
There is only one JG and we are lucky to have her as our PM!
No offence was meant Puff and I think I will leave you all for your day of joy and catch up again later. Perhaps you will be less touchy when things settle down.
Having said that I have read many much, much worse comments and insults of Liberal politicians in the past two years without taking offence. It can be very one-sided here at times what comments people decide to get outraged about.
FFS
Scott Bevan just asked a leadership question of Bruce Hawker. Of course Hawker put him in his place
now this tweet
“@ABCNews24: Rudd’s fmr leadership campaign strategist Bruce Hawker: I don’t think anyone is in the business of being about to challenge Julia Gillard.”