The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).
Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.
We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.
Anyway, a date has been set and the light at the end of the Labor tunnel is nearing. Two terms, two PMs, and three speakers, it been a good run for labor.
Howard entitlement era of middle class welfare is about to end with this coming budget. Better late than never.
@rummel/1101
Your way out of line.
Well done Gus!
[Mr Denmore Damn the PM for depriving the press gallery of nine months of election date speculation. What will the ‘insiders’ talk about now. Policy??]
lizzie@1094
I am. The press and the Coalition keep organising these co-ordinated campaigns, and the ALP keep scattering them to the wind. But better than that, each time it happens another block goes into place for the ALP, and another avenue gets cut off for the Coalition. Abbott’s right about the python squeeze – it’s around his throat.
[zoidlord
Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 2:22 pm | PERMALINK
@rummel/1101
Your way out of line.]
Oh! Because I fail to support “Julia Gillards Australia Labor Party”
Countdown is on our misery is coming to an end.
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20130914T20&p0=196&msg=Labor+gets+the+knife
“@sortius: How elections are called is telling. LNP: 2 weeks out to lock out voter registrations. ALP: 6 months to include everyone #auspol”
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits
If Gillard survives to election she’ll overtake Barton, Whitlam, Fisher and then … Gorton (by 23 days). #mytrivialstatistic
Retweeted by Latika Bourke]
Stuff Yom Kippur, she’s put the election during the most sacred time of year, AFL finals, aka footballadan.
[“@sortius: How elections are called is telling. LNP: 2 weeks out to lock out voter registrations. ALP: 6 months to include everyone #auspol”]
Tells you nothing except that people who are less likely to be registered are more likely to vote Labor. Nothing to do with inclusiveness IMHO.
[Countdown is on our misery is coming to an end.
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20130914T20&p0=196&msg=Labor+gets+the+knife ]
A doom clock. How thoughtful.
Stephen T, I’m sure your misery will continue no matter what. You come across as perpetually miserable.
1042
Rossmore
[Somehow Rummell I don’t think you are LOLing right now …… 🙂 ]
Somehow I don’t think he quite understands what just happened at the NPC. 🙂
Betting agencies won’t like this.
zoidlord
Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 1:06 pm | Permalink
SULC @SydneyUniLibs
JG spurning more lies. Of course, no mention of the $250 billion debt that she has lugged on all of us. Bugger off! #auspol
Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
It seems that spelling and comprehension have still not improved since the infamous Alan Jones guest appearance.
@wonkydogman2: Senator Stephen Conroy speaks about the NBN start time in Bendigo: http://t.co/a1CftjbG via @bendigoweekly
Interesting combo of calling an election while attacking middle class welfare (if that is indeed what is happening).
Speaking of cutting middle class welfare, it’s amazing how on 99% of articles about the govt in the last two years there are loads of comments about Labor’s spendthrift ways, but the second they talk about spending cuts there are loads of comments (from the same types) about Labor’s cynical attack on society’s most vulnerable. Basically these people hate Labor no matter what they do.
If Abbott survives to election he’ll overtake Howard’s first stint as LOTO (by 41 days)
🙂
1073
Laocoon
[All I see when I see the Press Gallery is potential cost savings for their current employers.]
As increasingly do the employers, it seems.
Ben Hennessy @ben_j_hennessy
Federal Ind @OakeyMP has welcomed the fed #election, telling @PRIME7NthCoast he was aware of the PM’s decision prior to the announcement
Retweeted by Robert Oakeshott MP
This little black duck
Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 1:23 pm | Permalink
Michelle: “Ms Gillard, …” Grub!
That moment of respect a while back was never going to last.
Once again the PM has totally wrong-footed the conservative media.
Was it not so many weeks ago there were confident predictions of an “early election” almost being mandatory for the government?
On top of this the conservatives now have their bluff called.
The election is there for Labor to win and making the whinging conservatives suffer for another 3 years will be worth it. The light at the end of the tunnel is for Labor not for Abbott and his hench-persons.
The best laugh is the ‘tut-tut’ about Yom Kippur.
According to one on-line source, the total Jewish population in Oz is currently 107,000.
Given that half of these either don’t vote or can’t the potential number of persons who might be affected is maybe 50,000 at best – if they are that sensitive.
As someone has pointed out, every Saturday is a Jewish Sabbath, and so the option remains to postal vote or pre post vote.
The stupidity of some – MT in this case and some elements of the media – is there for all to see.
1075
Rex Douglas
[Interesting decision by the PM to set the date. Certainly clears space for actual POLICY discussion and comparison, which I think the Govt has a huge advantage.]
Certainly does.
Love to be a fly on the wall at the emergency Liberal campaign planning meeting, being hastily organised right now.
You eternal optimists here who constantly suggest that Labor’s masterplan is going to get them re-elected – you can get $3.75 on Labor at Sportsbet right now. I assume you’ll all be rushing off to nearly quadruple your money in under a year?
Stephen T@1108
FTFY
Laocoon
Posted Wednesday, January 30, 2013 at 1:27 pm | Permalink
David Speers re-asks fixed terms question. Why?
Maybe he was standing in for Fool Gilbert.
1120
Laocoon
[If Abbott survives to election he’ll overtake Howard’s first stint as LOTO (by 41 days)
🙂 ]
Now that’s a stat I can love. 😀
If you can bear to read it, Bernardi likens rejuvenating the nation to going on a new diet regime
[Our bureaucracy is now bloated, the fiscal blood pressure is high and the ‘brains’ that are running the country are lethargic. What little muscle is left to keep us moving has been attacked by arthritic taxes and the politics of envy.]
Apparently he’s been attending Boot Camp for twelve months but that is not enough. More austerity and physical exercise are needed.
http://www.corybernardi.com/2013/01/the-body-politic.html
Shades of the original Hitler Youth? (Sorry to sensitve sould)
[You eternal optimists here who constantly suggest that Labor’s masterplan is going to get them re-elected – you can get $3.75 on Labor at Sportsbet right now. I assume you’ll all be rushing off to nearly quadruple your money in under a year?]
I got $7 some months back. Three weeks ago it was $4.05, now $3.75.
Were you too late, Patrick?
Figures.
Aguirre
Make the most of the next 227 days because it will be a tough or should I say miserable 12 years come September 15th.
[Were you too late, Patrick?]
No, because while I regard it as a nightmare scenario, I still think it is significantly more likely than not that a combination of public, media and ALP stupidity will get the Libs back into power.
sortius @sortius
@TurnbullMalcolm I’m sorry, are you Jewish? Is Australia now Israel? That’s the weakest attack on the PM so far.
Pathetic media
Lots of repeat reporting on 24 of reaction to date of an election we knew was happening this year anyway. Reporting of actual topics in speech by PMJG. Minimal at best.
The Greens now have to decide, as I cant do it for them, if they want Julie Gillard or Tony Abbott as PM
“@Warbz: Preferred PM poll for Channel 7 and Yahoo. You know what to do tweeps http://t.co/Qxhrd1FQ #AusVotes”
[The Greens now have to decide, as I cant do it for them, if they want Julie Gillard or Tony Abbott as PM]
I’m confident they’ll decide to do whatever will maximise their vote.
As will Labor.
As will the Liberals.
Labor people need to get over this idea that the Greens have some sort of duty to campaign for them. When was the last time Labor did the Greens a solid to help them win anything? Oh, that’s right, in fact Labor would rather preference psychotic fringe right wingers.
guytaur
[Reporting of actual topics in speech by PMJG. Minimal at best.]
Well, she would have known that. Nothing was more certain.
ABC “news” running the least flattering picture possible of Gillard on their website.
Will be interesting to see if the Libs move on Abbott, now the election date is locked in? I suspect that they wont at this point, after all he has already started his “mini” campaign.
[Ms Gillard said Australians weren’t interested in campaigns without content, or platitudes devoid of purpose.
“There is now clearly the time and certainty necessary for the people and parties contesting the election to lay out their fully detailed, costed plans for the timely consideration of voters,” she added.
Ms Gillard said by announcing the date so far in advance, the opposition no longer had an excuse not to provide detailed costings ahead of the poll.
“They have two things that an opposition has never had before to enable them to do that,” she said.
“One, they’ve got the benefit of a fixed election date now with several months notice.
“Two, because of what we’ve done with the Parliamentary Budget Office they’ve got more resources available to them than an opposition has ever had before in the history of the nation to produce proper costings.”]
This is really an absolute gift to the Press pack. they are now deprived of their usual meat and potatoes of an election year in speculating about dates. But, they have a very clear opening to run hard at ALL the political parties on actual policy and very importantly, costings.
The public service now knows exactly when the election is happening and can get all the data lined up ready to present. The PBO can probably be a lot more effective than they would have been and there is time for major scrutiny and bashing if the Coalition decide to do the Hogwarts route again. Provided of course there are no leaks from the PBO, but if there are will be questionable if they are from ALP or Coalition sympathisers?? I’d be looking carefully for the Coalition to try and undermine that process i think.
One effect of announcing the date could be locking the Libs into their current leadership “team”. Lol! Yup they will go to the election with as talent-less bunch as has ever been seen on the opposition benches.
Apart from underlining the fact that PMJG is in fact PM there are a lot of implications to announcing the date now, Creates a new dance with the media that have been sooooooooooooo uncritically supportive of Abbott, and i’m not sure Abbott’s mob will be able to work out the steps.
Just had a thought – maybe Malcolm Turnbull was trying to lock in the Muslim vote behind Labor?
I can understand Milne wanting fixed terms, but 14 Sep wouldn’t normally be considered a prime date to have elections on forever.
Love it when JG leaves them all flat footed!
Content wise JGs speech was good and she handles questions well.
But, like most Australian PMs, she is no great orator. But her opponent is far worse so she should rank well in comparison.
Oh how i love a 8 month long election, you can feel it coming on, thank you PM
Psephos, Your point about Yom Kippur is a ripper. I’ve tweeted a truncated version to Turnbull and Frydenburg who is uppity about the matter also.
Gillard should move soon and push hard to lock Abbott into a series of policy-themed debates. Get in now before the Libs have an anti-Abbott-exposure strategy in place.
Lauren @LozVox
Vote for your preferred PM. The libs have cottoned on that you can vote as much as you like and are gaining ground. http://au.news.yahoo.com/cloud/polls/popup/d9c409d7-6ab7-3ab2-954f-8e1fadd35503/ …
MARI !!!
What a marvellous day for the Australian election. Sept 14 was the date in 1741 when Handel completed his “Messiah” .You may have another reason to turn the volume up to 11 and play the Hallelujah chorus. 🙂