ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

Automated phone pollster ReachTEL enters the Victorian state field on behalf of Channel Seven, and corroborates the recent trend of Newspoll.

ReachTEL has conducted an automated phone poll of state voting intention in Victoria for Channel Seven, as it has been doing on a monthly basis in Queensland. The result confirms the general trend of Newspoll, as well as a tendency for ReachTEL to broadly reflect Newspoll’s results which has been evident from its Queensland numbers. The poll’s figures have Labor in an election-winning position with 36.8% on the primary vote (compared with 36.3% at the November 2010 election), the Liberals with 34.4% (38.0%), the Nationals with 3.5% (6.8%) and the Greens with 12.4% (11.2%). Going off estimated preference flows from the 2010 state election and rounding to whole numbers, this suggests a Labor lead of 53-47 on two-party preferred (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election).

Furthermore, Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews records a surprise lead on the question of preferred premier, of 55.6-44.4 (all varieties of non-respondent obviously being excluded here). Ted Baillieu has a combined very good and good rating of 24.9% against 45.2% poor or very poor, with no comparable results provided for Andrews. The poll finds 48.9% saying the government’s performance has made them less likely to vote Liberal at the federal election against 26.3% more likely, while 50.9% deem themselves worse off under the Baillieu government against 9.9% better off.

The poll was conducted on Friday night from 1164 respondents, for a margin of error of around 3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

21 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. I would also add I have noticed the high-rotation “PSO at every train station” ads down here in Melbourne. Pretty much the only thing of note Baillieu has done that’s on the public’s radar… well aside from doing his darnedest to screw teachers, nurses and construction workers anyway.

  2. absolutetwaddle

    [Brilliant. Now when Labor loses the next Federal election it won’t be my state’s fault!:D]

    I think NSW will claim that honour!!! worse luck.

  3. It does look as if Ted has exhausted the goodwill normally accorded a new Premier and government, even when they get there on wafer thin margins.

    The public usually cuts them a bit of ‘fair go’ slack. It’s all gone on those figures. Even Andrews is improving.

    It might not have been as spectacular as Campbell Newman’s fall from grace, but it is as convincing.

    I can’t read much into it federally. Victoria federally has always been pretty good for Labor anyway.

    If only Fatty was to fall over a bit, I’d say that would be a very good sign. It’s not so much that people vote the same way. But it would make it impossible for Abbott to run with a “Trust us, we’ll do it.”

  4. [Brilliant. Now when Labor loses the next Federal election it won’t be my state’s fault!:D]

    Well, there’s a projected net loss of about 2 Labor seats in Victoria, as it stands, so no, it won’t be blameless. 😛

  5. I don’t get it the least objectionable of the three eastern states Conservative Governments and the most on the nose, clearly Victorians are more discerning and demanding than those to the North, and the fools to the far north.

  6. This seems to confirm the feeling that most of us in Vic have about the Bailleau govt
    Ted just doesn’t get it..and the vopters are clealry growing very tired ofg him and his ha[pless admin

    Train problems.the Tafe cuts.hospitals and his general lasitude seem top habe riled the voters
    I suspect his MPs are getting very worried./..a by-electiopn min amarginal seat woulds just about tip him out in a P’ment so clo9sely balanced

    [Transport survey finds Victorians ‘unhappy’ with the Government
    Updated 34 minutes ago

    A new survey has found commuters believe the Baillieu Government has failed to make any improvements to Melbourne’s public transport network.

    More than 1,000 people were surveyed by the Metropolitan Transport Forum which represents 22 Melbourne municipalities on transport issues.]

    See their site

  8. I am not disputing that the Baillieu government is not that popular, however it is rather mischievous to carry out such a poll on the Friday night of a long weekend when thousands will be away from home.

  9. Baillieu just snuck in last time. Victorian Labor, unlike its counterparts in NSW and Queensland, was not that unpopular and was even a bit unlucky to lose last time. That’s the main reason the Labor vote has held up Victoria.

  10. I guess the Coalition’s poor showing is too consistant to really be surprised about it these days, but I am curious where these swings are, maybe in regional areas again. There is general unhappiness with what the Government is doing, and I don’t think the “blame the Feds” position is going to be as successful as they hope, even in a federal election year… and BBP, thousands of people are away from home at the best of times. I know at my house the flow of people is a bit all-over-the-place, with night-shifts, University timetables, band trips, friends, shopping, overtime, etc. Its not rare, and not isolated to public holidays.

    That said, I’m dissappointed that they don’t have a “don’t know this person” collumn like they had for Qld, it would be enlightening.

  11. Oh, I meant to make the point that there doesn’t seem to be an anti-Baillieu element, as there was an anti-Brumby element in 2010, its more the Government as a whole.

  12. I have just read the JWS polling detailed in the AFR. Has anyone commented on the likely MOE?

    If it is accurate it does confirm my gut feel that the ALP is in trouble in NSW because of the ICAC stuff, Robertson’s inability to gain traction and NSW’s still seeing ALP as on the nose. In addition O’Farrell has been careful not to frighten the horses.

    The NSW position will make it very difficult for ALP to retain office federally this year.

  13. I am beginning to think Baillieu Govt has got to the too little – too late stage re policies and initiatives.

    The recent Premiers Economic Statement – Not Treasury/Finance, but that is a little side issue – is not altogether too bad but it too little and less than 2 years out from the election too late in the piece.

    I think the problem to regaining some ground will be that the switched off nature of the electorate that no messages will get through.

  14. Remember the new rule of political reportage in this country – the ‘faceless men’ only ‘plot’ to ‘topple’ (or ‘stab in the back’) an ‘elected leader’ if they’re Labor.

    If they’re Liberal it’s just an informal pep-talk among like-minded gentlemen. Nothing to see here! Stalinism? You surely jest, we wear blue ties!:D

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