ReachTEL has conducted an automated phone poll of state voting intention in Victoria for Channel Seven, as it has been doing on a monthly basis in Queensland. The result confirms the general trend of Newspoll, as well as a tendency for ReachTEL to broadly reflect Newspoll’s results which has been evident from its Queensland numbers. The poll’s figures have Labor in an election-winning position with 36.8% on the primary vote (compared with 36.3% at the November 2010 election), the Liberals with 34.4% (38.0%), the Nationals with 3.5% (6.8%) and the Greens with 12.4% (11.2%). Going off estimated preference flows from the 2010 state election and rounding to whole numbers, this suggests a Labor lead of 53-47 on two-party preferred (51.6-48.4 to the Coalition at the election).
Furthermore, Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews records a surprise lead on the question of preferred premier, of 55.6-44.4 (all varieties of non-respondent obviously being excluded here). Ted Baillieu has a combined very good and good rating of 24.9% against 45.2% poor or very poor, with no comparable results provided for Andrews. The poll finds 48.9% saying the government’s performance has made them less likely to vote Liberal at the federal election against 26.3% more likely, while 50.9% deem themselves worse off under the Baillieu government against 9.9% better off.
The poll was conducted on Friday night from 1164 respondents, for a margin of error of around 3%.