Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research has the Greens up a point at the expense of Labor, while a JWS Research automated phone poll suggests the swing against Labor is biting where it can least afford it.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).

Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.

We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 22 of 25
1 … 21 22 23 … 25

  3. davidwh
    […while the government continues so changes to leadership or the date can still happen.]

    Leadership is interesting. Will this affect Rudd? By doing this Gillard has in a sense taken ownership of the period up to the election. I suppose Rudd could still challenge and promise to maintain the date.

  6. http://australianpolitics.com/2013/01/02/when-will-the-2013-federal-election-be-held.html
    [When Will The 2013 Federal Election Be Held?
    Jan 02, 2013

    …………..

    Is there anything we haven’t considered?

    Well, try this. On February 2, 2011, New Zealand’s Prime Minister John Key announced that the election would be held on November 26. New Zealand was hosting the Rugby World Cup and Key said he wanted to allow the country to concentrate on the Cup and have some certainty without him playing politics with the election date.

    The only time I can remember this happening in Australia was in 1979 when Victorian Liberal Premier Rupert Hamer announced a May election in February. There was a sizable swing against the government.

    Gillard could return to work around Australia Day and make an announcement that she intends to govern for the bulk of the year without unnecessarily playing politics. It fits with her “getting on with the job” theme. She could say she doesn’t want the nation distracted by election speculation for the next nine months because there are many important things to be done. She could say she promised to run full term and announce October 19 as the election date.

    But would Gillard do that? Wouldn’t she be giving up an important political advantage over the Opposition?

    Possibly, but she also needs a political circuit-breaker. She needs something that puts the pressure on Abbott to come up with policies. She needs something that takes election speculation out of the media and allows her to take advantage of being an incumbent government getting on with governing.

    Gillard could announce the date in the next few weeks, there’d be a bit of a fuss for a few days but then things would calm down. It might work.]
    He tipped the wrong date (although Sept 14 was on his shortlist), but….very good call.

  9. To those of you who reckon this announcement is somehow going to make the media lift their game: dream on.

    Now the Labor’s a punching bag with an expiration date.

  10. “@frankellyabc: Tony Windsor likes knowing the election date – says we can now get on with governing and leave the campaigning until August. He runs again?”

  11. Peter of Marino
    [Was coke bottles the only journo that referred to the PM as “Ms Gillard” ?]

    Grattan always is as far as I’ve noticed.

  12. [ … the government continues so changes to leadership or the date can still happen. ]

    The date – no. The leader – yes … of the opposition.

    Gillard is giving the LNP a sporting chance by making sure they have sufficient time to find a real leader, and also sufficient time to develop some actual policies.

  14. Missed the last few questions as I had to deal with something. But the press corps weren’t really onto it, were they? Perhaps some of them were planning to ask when the election would be held. The set play seemed to be:

    1. Niggle about the budget re ‘surplus’.
    2. Work in Abbott talking points, such as they are.
    3. If absolutely necessary, refer to something Gillard talked about in her speech

    The more flexible of them managed to adjust to the election day announcement. Speers wouldn’t have had a clue when Yom Kippur is, so he got a message from the Coalition I suspect.

    The questions are now showing on APAC, if anyone cares to sit through them again.

  16. Musrum’s stfu script has a very useful option to hide comments with specific text such as, purely for example, “Rudd”.

  20. “@prismatic7: Bloody good on you, Tony Windsor. You’ve represented your electorate as best you can, regardless of partisan politics. #abcnews24 #auspol”

  21. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    Market reaction to election announcement: ASX crashes 0.001%; AUD surges 0.002 cents; bond yields unchanged! Sums up the issue very well

  23. Yet another complete FAIL by the Press Gallery – in their very own lair.

    [Didn’t see Rudd getting the boot
    Didn’t see Bob Carr becoming Foreign Minister
    Didn’t see Peter Slipper becoming Speaker
    Didn’t see the election date announcement]

    Completely useless.

    All they can do is serve up confected drama, opposition talking points, or trivia – even on this very day, prostate-gate.

    Don’t do policy. Don’t do hard politics. Don’t do investigations into conspiracies.

    All I see when I see the Press Gallery is potential cost savings for their current employers.

  25. Malcolm Turnbull obviously prioritizes individual religious processes over the national political process.

    Interesting decision by the PM to set the date. Certainly clears space for actual POLICY discussion and comparison, which I think the Govt has a huge advantage.

  26. Psephos …done, slightly abbreviated

    @TurnbullMalcolm 2013 will be the 40th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, when a tough female PM after initial setbacks, won a grt victory.

  29. So, we have an election date. 🙂

    Interesting, but unequivocally a positive move. Government doing the Governing thing, Opposition…..well….not.

    Am very sad to have missed the actual announcement. To have seen the journos faces when it was announced would have been priceless.

  33. @rummel/1081

    Public didn’t want Surplus, Carbon was fear campaign by Coalition, now that didn’t have much effect at all now did it?

    Infact made food cheaper.

  34. On twitter

    Libs complaining about election falling on Yom Kippur, not realising that many Jews couldn’t vote on ANY Saturday. You’re pathetic! #auspol

  35. I look forward to the time later this afternoon when the Coalition and press corps finally agree on why the date for the election is wrong. There will be a couple more hours of floundering about for those who enjoy comedy. Sky is probably the best place to look.

  43. @btckr: Michelle Grattan asked PM about “media policy”. Big clue as to what’s been driving the news media’s anti-Labor campaign. #mediafail

  45. First time since Abbott became LOTO that the government has gazumped the Tories with the early year political story. They’ve been slack in the past with that.

  50. [“@frankellyabc: Tony Windsor likes knowing the election date – says we can now get on with governing and leave the campaigning until August. He runs again?”]

    I thought Windsor had said several times last year that he would run again, including to Fran.

Comments Page 22 of 25
1 … 21 22 23 … 25

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *