Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll has opened its account for 2013 with an encouraging result for Labor, recording a primary vote six points higher than the previous poll of December 7-9.

The result of the first Newspoll for 2013 has been reported by AAP (your guess as to how that’s come about is as good as mine) and almost simultaneously by the ever-reliable James J, and it’s a relatively encouraging one for Labor who trail just 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 in the final poll of 2012. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, up six on last time, with the Coalition and the Greens both down two, to 44% and 9% respectively. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 49% while Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down one to 58%. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister by 45-33, up from 43-34.

UPDATE (16/1/13): A Morgan face-to-face result covering both the previous two weekends (and presumably warranting more than the usual degree of caution on account of the holiday period) has the Coalition leading 51-49 when preferences are distributed as per the 2010 election result, and by 52-48 according to respondent allocation. The primary votes are 36.5% for Labor, 41.5% for the Coalition and 10.5% for the Greens. This follows what now looks an aberrant result in the final poll of last year, when Labor led 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences and 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated.

UPDATE (19/1/13): AAP reports a ReachTEL poll of 511 respondents conducted for the United Voice union in Wayne Swan’s Brisbane seat of Lilley suggests he is heading for defeat, trailing LNP candidate Rod McGarvie 45% to 38% on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,565 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Gangnam is that fat Korean guy doing a bad imitation of 1990s hip-hop? With any luck, this time next year he’ll be totally forgotten, like that ugly woman who won the British talent show last year.

  5. Psephos,

    It has colour, movement and rhythm. You want something (not so) different then I can give you a Ballet Russe performance of The Rite of Spring with the 1913 choreography.

  6. 3127

    I do not know what he has been doing but he does not need a job as he gets a parliamentary pension for life as he was elected before they made the parliamentary pensions start at 55. In fact it was because of the fuss over his generous life pension, at 39, that they did this.

  9. [like that ugly woman who won the British talent show last year.]

    Are you referring to Susan Boyle?

    If so she is fabulous, and still going strong.

  20. tlbd, they were itinerants at first. They appeared as hitch hikers, but they offered to do odd jobs, sew on buttons and sell programs and tickets. I like them. They have been with me for many years.

  28. Speaking of cricket, John Inverarity should sack himself. Fair enough to rotate fast bowlers when you have a big choice (guise of “resting” is a fail) but batsmen? Give me a break!

  29. duck,

    I love both versions. So there.

    The performance on TV posted by fess is simply wonderful.

    Taking account of all the contrivances, Boyle just aced the whole performance

  33. JM
    People here reacted to your post 2840 about Jones/Bolt/Piers last night because those three are all partisans abusing science for political and personal gain.
    Alan Jones will not give you all the information you need. That is his business model; he states it clearly on his website. He keeps it simple by not giving you any other information apart from the bits that support his view.

    You will remember his interview with climate scientist David Karoly last year with the yelling, sneering and abuse. On that interview alone the penny should have dropped with Alan’s listeners that he does not want opposing views on his program. He will shout them down.

    The Karoly interview was the one where he got the numbers wrong saying CO2 was .oooooo4 of something else. That is because he doesn’t understand it. He actually got the number correct but mixed up what it related to because it means nothing to him. It is just words that he reads.

    If you put a stopwatch on his interviews, he speaks for 60% of the time allowing the subject only 40% to state a case. Another indicator of a partisan hack.

    His speech to the Liberal Party function in Sept where he gave them advice on how to hit the PM hard and personal, should disqualify him in your eyes. It revolted the nation. His non-apology a week or two later where he blamed other people for it and repeated most of what he said should also be repellent to you. It showed the madness of his methods.

    Andrew Bolt does not simplify things and goes to some lengths to complicate stuff. His bewildering graphs that 10 minutes of Net searching prove wrong, and his persistent confusion between sea ice thickness and extent, show that he cannot be trusted.
    His role in promoting the Climategate stolen emails and the lies told about them is another reason.

    If you disregard any attack he makes on other people’s hypocrisy, then you are left with an empty vessel. Charges of hypocrisy in politics are worthless currency and that is what he trades in.

    And then there is his audience on his blog. Wacked out and looney does not does not do them justice. When they told me to keep my paedophile mates away from their children, and people like me destroy marriages, I knew it was time to leave. They are nuts.

    But it was probably the inclusion of Piers in your list that set off people here. I put some effort into my contempt for Jones and Bolt but PA is not worth the trouble. AJ and AB consciously avoid telling the truth, but Piers steamrollers over the top of it because he doesn’t know it is there.

  34. briefly:

    I love that the audience and the judges mocked her yet she delivered in spades, and more. In the end they were cheering her. I love her spunk and push back against the bullies as well.

    It’s a great clip.

  35. Since we’ve been having a musical appreciation evening, let me present what I think is the best video of the best performance of the best song by one of the best bands of the 1960s – the immortal Eric Burdon and the Animals performing House of the Rising Sun in 1964. Burdon had an absolutely heart-breaking voice, and Alan Price was a keyboards genius, later to achieve fame with his own bands. Burdon is still performing at 71, but this video is what he will be remembered for.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwAw9ThDQmk

  40. Psephos,

    No argument it was great but “Burdon had an absolutely heart-breaking voice’! It may be heart-breaking but he was off-key.

    I remember listening to John Denver (who, I thought, was great) singing with Placido Domingo.

    You just don’t know how out of tune you hear until you realize http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YnfCH7LNcM

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