The result of the first Newspoll for 2013 has been reported by AAP (your guess as to how that’s come about is as good as mine) and almost simultaneously by the ever-reliable James J, and it’s a relatively encouraging one for Labor who trail just 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 in the final poll of 2012. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, up six on last time, with the Coalition and the Greens both down two, to 44% and 9% respectively. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 49% while Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down one to 58%. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister by 45-33, up from 43-34.
UPDATE (16/1/13): A Morgan face-to-face result covering both the previous two weekends (and presumably warranting more than the usual degree of caution on account of the holiday period) has the Coalition leading 51-49 when preferences are distributed as per the 2010 election result, and by 52-48 according to respondent allocation. The primary votes are 36.5% for Labor, 41.5% for the Coalition and 10.5% for the Greens. This follows what now looks an aberrant result in the final poll of last year, when Labor led 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences and 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated.
UPDATE (19/1/13): AAP reports a ReachTEL poll of 511 respondents conducted for the United Voice union in Wayne Swan’s Brisbane seat of Lilley suggests he is heading for defeat, trailing LNP candidate Rod McGarvie 45% to 38% on the primary vote.
When and where did you stand for office?
How did you go?
Did you champion any specific pieces of legislation?
Can you transfer your super into my bank account?
[You are more than welcome in the Tory Warriors too! ]
Thank you Mod Lib, I enjoy watching your sparring. Remarkable patience on your part, if I may say.
However, in the last 18 months I have pieced a few pieces of the puzzle togethor (mostly with the help of Macrobusiness.com.au) and I’m not that impressed with either ALP or LIB at the moment.
The issue I care most about has no home with either major party, but generally I remain centre-right
Bulk Gillard snipping on https://twitter.com/search?q=%40margokingston1&src=typd recently.
“More in grief than in anger” concern troll behaviour.
Psephos @ 3075….he has looked quite puzzled and fed up the few times I’ve seen him recently. One of the consequences of his political method – which was to vehemently personalise his assault on JG – is that he has also become an object of personal fascination. And because a lot of the curiosity is critical, invasive, intimate and cynical, he must really wonder what is going on. What has he got himself into?
He does seem to have lost the capacity to speak of himself and for himself. To lose one’s tongue – that would be a calamity for a politician.
[Remarkable patience on your part, if I may say.]
Tell me about it!
It aint easy, but I do my best to try! 😉
Last week Hollande decided “no more Monsieur Nice Guy” and sent the French Army into Mali to terminate the Talibs in Timbuktoo. This seems to have triggered their Algerian friends to seize western hostages at a gas plant in the desert. Now the Algerians have launched a raid on the plant and killed a lot of bad guys and hostages fairly indiscriminately, it seems.
briefly,
Tony Abbott has become an object of ridicule, even in the OM. I count the number of his days.
Psephos,
My thoughts are that they wanted to retain control of the gas plant, no matter what.
One-time Liberal member for Tangney and Shadow Health Minister Peter Shack (sometimes blamed in the latter capacity for costing the Coalition the 1990 election) “faces jail after this afternoon being convicted of fraud for fleecing his mother-in-law’s estate of $100,000”.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/15878970/ex-mp-guilty-of-defrauding-mum-in-law/
Has he got anything to do with the current Libs (i.e. could he affect the election over there?)
Was he the guy that said of the Health budget something along the lines “Whose to know?” or wtte?
Paul Howes: “Australia’s all out for 74!!! Bloody carbon tax.”
So, his wife did for Shack. Must be a lesson there.
Many long years since I so much as heard the name, ModLib. So no, no contemporary political implications to speak of.
Oops. Belated message relay to William.
Check your email for some info about Westpoll from a fellow Sandgroper.
Psephos,
Oz did get six wickets! Obviously the Carbon Tax was inadequate.
[Was he the guy that said of the Health budget something along the lines “Whose to know?” or wtte?]
He said, during the 1990 campaign, that the Libs didn’t have a health policy, but that he’d figure something out if they won. He also opined that the Libs had never been very good at health policy.
Thanks DG, saw that.
[He said, during the 1990 campaign, that the Libs didn’t have a health policy, but that he’d figure something out if they won. He also opined that the Libs had never been very good at health policy.]
Thanks, I think he was the guy that was asked something about a $5Billion issue and asked whether it would come in on budget or something and he said “who’s to know” after which he was dumped as the Opposition Health spokesperson.
A Lib figure from 20 years ago will have no bearing on the election outcome.
Modlib – sorry, but I am going to have to see you as one of them, if you’re going to vote Gillard. Couldn’t you just go informal?
[William Bowe
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 at 11:45 pm | PERMALINK
Thanks DG, saw that.]
Care to share the Westpoll result here?
Mod Lib,
You are cruising with the cream on PB.
Deblonay was an ALP candidate back in the seventies at State level. He and a few of his contemporaries built Labor in to a fortress in the North out our way.
He’s also much more famous for a major change to the way we all vote today. However, I’ll leave that to him to reveal when he wants.
Believe it or not, I’ll always regard him as a hero of the Labor Movement despite his current predilictions and silliness.
Bemused also ran against Billy Snedden back in the 70s. He hasn’t moved on. But, should be respected for having a go.
So my humble Council election attempts should be put in to context. I ran and lost twice in Banyule Council in Victoria. At my last attempt I advised my 20 year old daughter to have a go at a local seat for the experience.
She won and I lost.
So my role today is as the sire of political champions.
[Couldn’t you just go informal?]
Well, I usually vote in shorts and T-shirt, does that count?
What is the Westpoll? For the WA election? Isn’t Barnett going to thrash Labor, oppa NSW/Qld style?
Council election?
I thought for a moment you might have been Gough!!!!
Psephos,
That statement is one step removed from “We’ll release our costings before the next election.”
And if you want to check consistency on Coalition policy, avagander at Abbott, Robb and Hockey on “How deep is our love, err, hole.”
When Shack was elected in 1977 he was the youngest member of the House at 24. Big things were expected of him, but after his failure as shadow health minister he retired in 1993, still only 39. No idea where he’s been for the last 20 years.
The “info about Westpoll” did not actually amount to the result.
[Isn’t Barnett going to thrash Labor, oppa NSW/Qld style?]
Heeey, Liberal ladyyy…
GG,
Might add zoomster.
Greensborough Growler@3092
OK, thanks. Now that first one’s interesting because this started with a discussion about grumpy gay-rights campaigners. If there’s a non-grumpy, non-hysterical, non-shrilly-emotive anti-abortion campaigner out there then I have yet to encounter one, and I find that for precisely that reason they are generally the worst people to debate with and usually not worth the trouble, despite my general interest in debating all kinds of issues.
I am strongly supportive of abortion rights for women, but don’t consider the other side to be as hopeless intellectually as is the case with the absurdly meritless anti-gay-rights movements. On abortion, there is an argument there from the other side that I can see why people would agree with; I just think it’s a very simplistic one based on my own view of the philosophical issues involved.
As for the other two, of course there are countries out there with vastly worse basic human rights records than ours, but that should make some of the shortcomings that continue to exist here more surprising – and in context, “breath-taking”, rather than less. Though my breath is sometimes more easily taken by the absurdity of the arguments advanced for prejudice, than necessarily by the scale of the prejudice itself.
[asked whether it would come in on budget or something and he said “who’s to know” ]
No, I think “who’s to know?” was Peacock himself.
duck,
Absolutely. But fess had her covered earlier.
GG:
Add zoom to that.
Modlib – lol, I was thinking similar after I posted that. “Vote informal”.
I personally know loads of people in their eighties who drop Gangnam Style references.
Kevin,
You asked the question.
I’m not responsible if you don’t like the answer.
GG,
Some repetition bears, nay necessitates, repetition.
Mod Lib:
Do you think Sophie Mirabella is deserving of holding a safe Liberal seat?
No
“Who’s to know?” Here you go:
http://www.archivaldatabase.library.unisa.edu.au/fedora/get/uuid:I2941/CONTENT0
William – I am a lot more in tune than you’d probably expect for an 81 year old.
Gagnam-style is rap dancing without standing on your head. Can’t see what the big dislike is all about.
Greensborough Growler@3137
I like having elicited that answer. 😉
Excellent Mod Lib!
[Psephos
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 at 11:56 pm | PERMALINK
“Who’s to know?” Here you go:]
Thanks! Its funny how I seem to remember it was the guy in the papers! Perhaps it was both of them, but I couldn’t find it on google….perhaps my memory is mistaken, twas a long time ago!
How is it that he never became PM eh?
[Gagnam-style is rap dancing without standing on your head.]
Umm… post-1991, how many rap videos have you seen?
I mean, I am a big fan of Partners in Kryme’s “Turtle Power” too, but standing on one’s head while rapping is hardly a modern trope…
Kevin,
I’m delighted in you eliciting great pleasure.
[3107
This little black duck
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 at 11:36 pm | Permalink
briefly,
Tony Abbott has become an object of ridicule, even in the OM. I count the number of his days.]
Oh, I think along the same lines, tlbd. But they are very short of grunt. They have no obvious replacement for him.
GG,
Interviewers do a lot of: “What about …” and then proceed to bring out the attempted “But so and so says …”
I am so with those who say “You asked my opinion and you have it”, not that many have sufficient confidence to say so.