Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll has opened its account for 2013 with an encouraging result for Labor, recording a primary vote six points higher than the previous poll of December 7-9.

The result of the first Newspoll for 2013 has been reported by AAP (your guess as to how that’s come about is as good as mine) and almost simultaneously by the ever-reliable James J, and it’s a relatively encouraging one for Labor who trail just 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 in the final poll of 2012. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, up six on last time, with the Coalition and the Greens both down two, to 44% and 9% respectively. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 49% while Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down one to 58%. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister by 45-33, up from 43-34.

UPDATE (16/1/13): A Morgan face-to-face result covering both the previous two weekends (and presumably warranting more than the usual degree of caution on account of the holiday period) has the Coalition leading 51-49 when preferences are distributed as per the 2010 election result, and by 52-48 according to respondent allocation. The primary votes are 36.5% for Labor, 41.5% for the Coalition and 10.5% for the Greens. This follows what now looks an aberrant result in the final poll of last year, when Labor led 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences and 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated.

UPDATE (19/1/13): AAP reports a ReachTEL poll of 511 respondents conducted for the United Voice union in Wayne Swan’s Brisbane seat of Lilley suggests he is heading for defeat, trailing LNP candidate Rod McGarvie 45% to 38% on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,565 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Abbott must be VERY nervous – Hockey has to be favourite to replace him surely???

    Either way, sets a nice context for the year to come 🙂

  2. briefly:

    From the previous thread.

    [These are very interesting questions, don’t you think?]

    I do. What is the tipping point away from principle to dogma? It’s not just identity or self awareness.

    What motivates a traditional, small government Liberal to get behind a big government DLP type in Abbott? Or even a high taxing, high spending alleged Liberal in Howard?

    The mind boggles.

  3. my question from the last thread for the legal types – is it normal for an appeal like Ashby’s to be heard by the full bench of the federal court???

  4. [Vince O’Grady ‏@vogrady2132
    @geeksrulz @GhostWhoVotes Gary Morgan has Labor in front in his face to face poll. Whoohoo
    Hide conversation Reply Retweet Favorite]

    Come on down Liberal trolls!

  5. But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.

    Someone better tell Rupe that the Poll is wrong and so is the lengthy trend back.

    Psssssts. I would love to see Tone the Truckwit still as LOTO till the election, but gee it will be fun watching him getting his “don’t come Monday”. I am worried if Talcolm gets the nod. Anyone else I would not have a worry.

  6. So, first Newspoll for the year delivers us the 2010 PV results for Labor/coalition.

    I still say it’s too early to get excited. People are still on holidays, there’s no election imminent, no parliament sitting to jolt people back to thinking about our MPs in their normal place.

    Meh.

  7. SMH says only “marginal” changes in leader’s ratings.

    If I was PMJG I’d be happy with the preferred PM gap going from 10 to 12. Ditto for the improvement in net satisfaction/dissatisfaction of 5 points (compared to Abbott’s net improvement of 2 points),

    Momentum is the name of the game.

    As they say in the stock exchange, JG has built a solid floor in personal and party polling to go on with it in 2013 and put the cold steel up Abbott and his mob of Howard-hacks.

  8. Don’t be a party pooper confessions; this is a great result for the good guys.
    The trend and the momentum is good but yes a long way to go.

    Two hawt eastern europeans on court now just quietly…

  9. wow great numbers … and quite a divergence on todays number.

    Also worrying for the liebots because Abbott usually does well over Christmas when he isn’t on screens annoying each nights.

  10. Jeffemu @ 15

    “Psssssts. I would love to see Tone the Truckwit still as LOTO till the election, but gee it will be fun watching him getting his “don’t come Monday”. I am worried if Talcolm gets the nod. Anyone else I would not have a worry.”

    My sentiments precisely.

    I want to get popcorn ready now but I know it’d be better if I wait till the main poll.

  11. [I await to be proved wrong, but it seems to me this leaked Morgan result talk emerged from Chinese whispers on Twitter.]

    Twitter doesn’t ever get things wrong surely?

  12. confessions…..i think it is normative affiliation and conduct. You can get people to do or express all kinds of unlikely things because group attachment is very very important to psychological continuity and a sense of order.

    People really really need to experience trust in their lives. If this is withheld, people feel dislocated and threatened. They say that happiness is not possible without trust. Trust of course is something that exists because of social engagement – it is a social product. For many, political attachment is a part of their array of social engagement. So they are more likely to change their minds about “policies” or “abstract directions” than to renounce their deeply-held affiliations. This is involuntary. People will find it easier to rationalise their acceptance of changes to “policies” than changes in primary political attachment.

    The task for parties is to find those voters who are not firmly affiliated and find ways to cultivate attention and attachment. This is hard, because such voters are “non-affiliating” in a political sense in the first place. It is about creating motivation in the resistant….tough job

  13. jeffemu
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:31 pm | Permalink

    But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.

    She actually got three? Whoever was in charge of that poll is in deeper trouble than Abbott.

  14. just for William 🙂

    [Justin Barbour ‏@justinbarbour
    Rumoured to be 52.5-48.5, to the ALP. MT @roymorganonline: our next federal poll will be out tomorrow. Stay tuned.
    Retweeted by Ashley Leahy
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite]

  15. Briefly

    “The task for parties is to find those voters who are not firmly affiliated and find ways to cultivate attention and attachment. This is hard, because such voters are “non-affiliating” in a political sense in the first place. It is about creating motivation in the resistant….tough job”

    That’s why superficial, catchy political advertising exists.

  16. AWU Bullshit washes out and it’s back to near evens that the trend was heading for in October.

    It’ll be fun watching and waiting to see how long it is until the Lib shills wake up to the fact it isn’t just going to be handed to them and that they won’t even be in the race come election day without a barely credible policy suite and an electable leader. Unhingement deluxe.

  17. http://bit.ly/WFFFLa (click top google link)
    [Labor starts year with a bounce in latest Newspoll
    BY: DAVID CROWE, NATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR
    From: The Australian
    January 14, 2013 10:34PM

    VOTER support for Labor has jumped to its strongest levels since the last election to put the federal government within striking distance of the Coalition after a dangerous setback last month.

    Labor enters the election year with a big recovery in its primary vote despite only marginal changes in personal satisfaction ratings for Julia Gillard, as the Prime Minister declares her readiness for a drawn-out political fight.]
    Shanna must be on leave

  18. [Henry
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:24 pm | PERMALINK
    Monkey is cactus if this continues.
    Malcolm surely circling…
    Come in mod lib]

    Nice to see you guys miss me!

    Yep, good poll to start the year, and again Essential and Newspoll differ and so – wait for it – we need to see some more polling to work out which is the more accurate.

    I just hope the Lib backbenchers are starting to get butterflies and look furtively Mts way 🙂

  19. These women have failed to boost Tony Abbott’s popularity: Bishop, Prissy, Margie and Credlin. Sister Bernadette & Mother Mary are next

  20. [For the legal types out there is it normal for an appeal like Ashby’s to be heard by the full bench of the federal court??? Looks to me like that is what they are asking for]

    Full Bench means three judges which us the same as what State courts call an appeal bench

  21. We don’t miss you ML. Just like seeing you cop a nice dose of humble pie. Enjoy it. So now Essential is THE poll for the conservatives. Lolski.

  22. The Finnigans, these women, they are candles in the chapel, little lights by the altar, flickering for TA; tapers slowly melting away as surely as his political substance dissolves.

  23. no wonder Credlin wants a tweeting ban on Liberal MPs and candidates. Mr Laming has put this choice one out just now

    [Andrew Laming ‏@AndrewLamingMP
    Mobs tearing up Logan tonight. Did any of them do a day’s work today, or was it business as usual and welfare on tap?
    Details ]

  24. 41
    [William Bowe

    But don’t get too excited everyone. Remember just the other day there were 148 negative comments in the Telecrap re PMJG’s letter to 3 in favour.

    Hats off, Jeffemu.]

    Yeah, but everyone knows the DT is campaigning and that letters could easily have been faked…..it is a Murdoch Special….no one believes anything much in the News organs

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