Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll has opened its account for 2013 with an encouraging result for Labor, recording a primary vote six points higher than the previous poll of December 7-9.

The result of the first Newspoll for 2013 has been reported by AAP (your guess as to how that’s come about is as good as mine) and almost simultaneously by the ever-reliable James J, and it’s a relatively encouraging one for Labor who trail just 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 in the final poll of 2012. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, up six on last time, with the Coalition and the Greens both down two, to 44% and 9% respectively. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 49% while Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down one to 58%. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister by 45-33, up from 43-34.

UPDATE (16/1/13): A Morgan face-to-face result covering both the previous two weekends (and presumably warranting more than the usual degree of caution on account of the holiday period) has the Coalition leading 51-49 when preferences are distributed as per the 2010 election result, and by 52-48 according to respondent allocation. The primary votes are 36.5% for Labor, 41.5% for the Coalition and 10.5% for the Greens. This follows what now looks an aberrant result in the final poll of last year, when Labor led 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences and 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated.

UPDATE (19/1/13): AAP reports a ReachTEL poll of 511 respondents conducted for the United Voice union in Wayne Swan’s Brisbane seat of Lilley suggests he is heading for defeat, trailing LNP candidate Rod McGarvie 45% to 38% on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,565 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. JM 3526 re Schools grants from Feds

    In my observations of schools in G’borough where I live they all received grants for various building projects and all seem safisfactory and most useful to the better working of the schools
    I think you have bought(made up?) the Libs mantra re the School Building Programs…but you are just plain wrong..!!

    The Murdoch Press seized on some minor problems and made these in the typical “big lies ” that Murdoch…a disciple of Dr Goebells I think..made into”truths”
    Go out an look at what has been done in your community and see the facts

  2. I’ll vote for the JM = GP theory.
    The turn of phrase being used by JM was sounding vaguely familiar to me but I think Psephos has nailed it. Showson always maintains some vaguely tenuous connection to reality but GP never bothered to do so.

  3. GG .. my reply to your comments(post 2854-58) on my past ALP involvement and my actions in the 1975 Constitutional case in the High Court re Electoral reform sre explained
    Thank you for that

    I posted late last night and I think you may have gone to bed

    We must stop being too civil to each other as it will perplex some of the regular posters here

  4. JM

    [It’s not just that it suits me better, it’s that it just doesn’t make sense that Labor is so high, when the public mood has not seem to have changed at all]
    The problem is your “public” are 2GB listeners,rusted out Nationals and Pies + Bolta readers.

  5. [Showson always maintains some vaguely tenuous connection to reality but GP never bothered to do so.]

    ShowsOn is also an abusive loudmouth. This guy isn’t, he’s just a reciter of Coalition talking points.

  6. I know a lot of National voters.

    The more politically active they are, the more they tend to respect and admire me.

    The most usual reaction from a National voter re Labor is “I don’t understand why we don’t form coalitions with you guys. We have more in common with you than with the Libs.”

    That, btw, applies to National MPs as well as ordinary voters.

    One fairly ostentatiously accompanied me as I walked around the local show during the 2007 election, introducing me to to people. SM was at the same event – he didn’t go near her.

    A Nationals voter who professes extreme hatred for Labor is quite rare. It’s the Libs who hate.

  7. zoomster – I completely disagree. I despise leftism, and those national voters that you know – I would be ashamed that they were a member of the same party as me. How on earth are we more similar? Labor is centre-left, Liberal centre-right, Nationals right.

  8. Why do Labor supporters say that the AWU affair is irrelevant because it was 20 years ago, but they still go on about something Abbott is alleged to have done 35 years ago?

  9. J M@3498

    frednk – I opposed medicare myself, I don’t like handouts. My electorate has been eternally National, and schools and hospitals and everything else here are in fine state, and every time I’ve had a problem, I’ve found my member (current and former) to be very helpful.

    Next time you see an overpriced school hall, thousands of Muslim illegal immigrants, and hear the word pink batts, just remember one word – ‘Labor’.

    I like intelligent discussion. You have just disqualified yourself.

    And if you really are s
    Showson, you should be ashamed of yourself for typing that drivel. I shall report you to the RSPCK (Royal Society for Prevention of Cruelty to Keyboards).

  10. Does anyone know when the Insiders returns? It’s always nice to hear the fair, balanced and unbiased comments by Niki Savva. She stays fair and composed, even if the two Labor hacks on there gang up on her.

  11. What has been will be again,
    what has been done will be done again;
    there is nothing new under the sun.

    I see the pretty knitters are still letting what’s left of their lives ebb into the ether.
    Some of you are bright enough to know it even if the messenger is a little shit.
    All perspective is lost if you fixate and less is more simply because it has more punch. All this handbag at twenty paces stuff is nonsense, puerile and very unbecoming.

    I apologise for being a jerk at times but I am very frustrated. I looked at posts from 2011 and even though there were psychos even then, there was humor and playfulness and far less bickering.

    There are a number of problems going on here. We have a hard core group of posters who’s positions from the Middle East to free speech and everything in between are entrenched and even if JC descended and said otherwise people on any side of any debate would not be convinced (those convinced against their will are of the same opinion still as Mother would say).

    The other hurdle is that many of them are very intelligent, have very long memories and have all day, every day to argue their case.
    Unfortunately for the rest of us who are just trying to find a bit of truth amongst all the sparkling propaganda (let’s face it, most of it is), it becomes difficult to discern what is truth and what is opinion parading as fact.

    The other glaring thing about some of the regulars is the hypocrisy inherent in the way they conduct themselves. They rail against the tactics used by the MSM but they have not only absorbed the tactics but ape them at every turn.
    They refuse to see that they themselves are a clique and a claque that flatter each other and studiously bolster the ramparts that hold them afloat from day to day.
    Interlopers are viewed as Icarus types who will be sent to Coventry if they dare challenge the prevailing orthodoxy.
    Personally, I think I understand what is going on here. There are a lot of people on here who are lonely and bored who would be devastated if this blog were taken away from them.
    Hence the ferocious border protection policies that go something like this- “Hi Dorie, welcome aboard. Gee Dorrie, don’t know if I agree with that. How long before Dorrie falls underneath the PB bus lol”. It has become their lifeline and they will defend it with every bit of gumption they possess.
    This is problematic on so many levels I don’t know where to start.
    Frankly there are about 20 regulars who should take a very long holiday.
    Imagine being invited to William’s house for a party and being sat next to one of them. They talk and talk and talk and manage to say nothing (except of course about how wonderfully intelligent they are), talk over the top of each other and eventually hurl the simplest and most embarrassingly unoriginal insults at each other at the top of their voices for the entire evening.

    The other more temperate guests (lurkers all),try to lighten the evening with a joke but it is immediately wrung though the post modern and entirely humorless mincer of Medusa’s molars.
    The club consists of a group of people who are lamentably puffed up by being the first to report a tweet or an ‘update’ or god knows what from the 24 hr news cycle.
    Some of them are so desperate for praise that they will stay glued to 79 news feeds just to be cyber patted and and clucked over by all the other headless PB chooks.

    I think the blog deserves better than this. There are many people who lurk and occasionally post astonishingly beautiful things but they are drowned out by the loud mouthed and excruciatingly boring bullies who don’t know that they are bullies and refuse to shut up.

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