Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll has opened its account for 2013 with an encouraging result for Labor, recording a primary vote six points higher than the previous poll of December 7-9.

The result of the first Newspoll for 2013 has been reported by AAP (your guess as to how that’s come about is as good as mine) and almost simultaneously by the ever-reliable James J, and it’s a relatively encouraging one for Labor who trail just 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 in the final poll of 2012. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, up six on last time, with the Coalition and the Greens both down two, to 44% and 9% respectively. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 49% while Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down one to 58%. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister by 45-33, up from 43-34.

UPDATE (16/1/13): A Morgan face-to-face result covering both the previous two weekends (and presumably warranting more than the usual degree of caution on account of the holiday period) has the Coalition leading 51-49 when preferences are distributed as per the 2010 election result, and by 52-48 according to respondent allocation. The primary votes are 36.5% for Labor, 41.5% for the Coalition and 10.5% for the Greens. This follows what now looks an aberrant result in the final poll of last year, when Labor led 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences and 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated.

UPDATE (19/1/13): AAP reports a ReachTEL poll of 511 respondents conducted for the United Voice union in Wayne Swan’s Brisbane seat of Lilley suggests he is heading for defeat, trailing LNP candidate Rod McGarvie 45% to 38% on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,565 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 65 of 72
1 64 65 66 72
  1. tlbd, i suppose at a rudimentary level, it’s because the did such a lot of singing…technically they developed strength and control…range, capacity….but more than this, they really understood how to convey meaning and passion through their music…there is such liberty of expression…such affirmation of love and truth….so exhilarating when in every other way life could have been crushing…

  2. Can anyone who calls Andrew partisan really be taken seriously? He’s probably one of the least partisan journos in the country, along with Niki Savva. I do concede that Piers and Alan are slightly partisan, but not Andrew.

  3. JM

    “Bolt and Savva are not partisan” !!!!!

    I’ve perused all your baited posts and this one is the icing on the cake. You are either a shit stirrer or a troll.

    I wouldn’t phrase it so bluntly if I actually believed that you are an 81 year old woman.

    I’m amazed you have sucked in so many PBers. But such is life! (sigh!)

  4. Re GG Comments on my past in the Labor movement

    post 3122
    __________
    He is quite gracious in his comments

    The matters re my actions and their effects on the way we vote is to do with my involvement…at the suggestion of the then PM Gough Whitlam …that I take out a High Court action to test parts of the Electoral Act which allowed for certain margins between country and city federal seats which of course had advantaged rural members(most of whom were tories anyway)

    We actually failed on all those matters (only Justice Lionel Murphey ruled in my favour)but we did get a favourable majority judgement on the matter of the timing of redistributions…which had previously been done nationwide..sometimes many years apart.

    After the 1975 Judgement, there must be a redistribution as the population statisics show to be needed,so we now usually have a redistribution in some states(but not others) in the life of each parliament,and this ensures equity and fairness in the number of seats to which the state is entitled
    This procedure is now common practice.
    In the coming election there are new boundaries in Victoria for example,but not in other states I think (I may be wrong here!)
    The Court Judgement bears my surname …” ********’s Case
    As for my other ” Predilictions ” to which GG alludes… sounds sexual doesn’t it ?)………
    I have long been a supporter of the Palestinian cause and that for many years …a view I shared with Gough in conversations I had with him in the years after he ceased to be PM …..

  5. J M
    [Greensborough Growler – hard to come by practicing Christians who support Labor.]
    Rubbish. For a start there is a rightwing Christian faction in the ALP which weilds much power, so I am told.

    There is nothing in Christianity which says a Christiam has to be conservative and I aware of Left voting Christians. me for one.

    At its outset it was pretty damn radical movement, with all those socialist ideas like giving away anything you didn’t need to people who had a need, free medical treatment, equitable food distribution, whipping bankers, and telling the rich to go to hell.

    Christian conservatives like the structure and the comfort of an external authority telling them and everyone else what to do. Christian progressives do not avoid the chaos brought on by challenging inequitable social structures.

    Anyway it is late and I can’t get my thoughts to flow coherently onto the screen.

    goodnite.

  6. Try ‘The Other Woman’ by Nina Simone
    ‘..but the other woman, will always cry herself to sleep. The other woman will never have his love to keep….
    The talk about funeral songs is quite funny. What do think would be apt for the Mad Monk’s swan song?

  7. I am a bit of a music nut and I have catholic tastes so it was hard to find just one particular song for Tones. However, Bohemian Rhapsody is so deliciously perfect that I fell on the floor laughing just hearing the first few lines…’Is this the real life..is this just fantasy… caught in a landslide, no escape from reality..’

  8. Carey Moore@3061


    It’s disturbing that people automatically assume that somebody who thinks differently is a troll.

    I don’t make a habit of it. Feel free to cite evidence to the contrary.

    J M’s act is well tailored to provoking this blog audience. Seems to know exactly which buttons to push, and how to do so, and just when to stonewall further debate with the old ‘Well, that is just what I believe’ routine.

    J M already knows us well. Don’t ya, J M… 😉

    3221
    J M
    [Please explain.]

    Cased closed.

    My bill is in the mail.

    😀

  9. ‘Sugar plum fairy came and hit the streets… looking for soul food and a place to eat..

    Holly is Pyne
    Candy is JB
    Little Joe is Hockey of course
    Jackie is Jackie Kelly naturally.
    The coloured girls? There are none in the Liberal Party as they smell like failure and cost too much.

  10. I have asked the other half to play ‘Asleep’ by the Smiths and then ‘Ae Fond Kiss’ by Fairground Attraction when I finally shuffle off. I say finally because I have been waiting a long time for all this silliness to end. No matter what you think of God, you can’t fault the humour.

  11. JM, there are two approaches a Labor opponent can take with Ralph Blewitt – one potentially very telling, the other evidence merely of stupidity on the part of the accuser. The former is that Gillard’s past involvement with him raises serious questions about her judgement. The latter is that Blewitt is “busy trying to expose the fraud”, “happy to answer all questions”, and whatever else was said of him in your video link which will never be watched all the way through by anyone with an IQ above room temperature.

  12. A word search on The West Australian site brings up an article which is introduced as follows – but the link doesn’t work. Guess we’ll have to wait until tomorrow for the gory details.

    [Mark McGowan has made no headway in his 12 months as Labor leader against Colin Barnett and the Liberals, according to the latest Westpoll, which shows Perth’s transport congestion woes have emerged as the defining issue of the election campaign.]

  13. William – I will take Blewitt’s word over Gillard any day.

    Good news from that article that you quoted. Looks like Labor is going to lose heaps of seats in WA. Always a joy to watch Labor lose, no matter where it is. A nice little entree for September’s main course…

  14. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    A really good article on how Obama may conduct his second term. Also some interesting parallels with Abbott’s tactics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/no-more-mr-nice-president-20130118-2cym7.html
    I don’t know what to think of this.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pm-rejects-criticism-on-gun-control-20130118-2cxgp.html#poll
    Matt Golding on the NRA and the media.

    A CLASSIC from Cathy Wilcox!

    David Pope from Planet Armstrong.

  15. I’m gobsmacked that so many PBers have been taken in by an obvious spoof …JM’s just “avin a laff” …at your expense …Lol!!

  16. And from the Land of the Free –

    Jon Stewart has identified the one executive order that has the NRA and its apologists all worked up.
    http://americablog.com/2013/01/jon-stewart-obama-executive-order-guns.html
    Some more cartoons on the gun country –



    The desperation is beginning to show big time. And on FoxNews of all places!
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/malkin-aca-has-deputized-gun-grabbing-doct
    Yes, there are responsible gun owners throughout their fine country.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/recreational-assault-weapons-fire-riddles-oh

  17. After Abbott’s “Can’t stop the boats, can’t stop the guns” comment yesterday one could be tempted to throw back at him “Can’t stop the fires!”

  18. [markjs
    Posted Saturday, January 19, 2013 at 6:52 am | Permalink

    I’m gobsmacked that so many PBers have been taken in by an obvious spoof …JM’s just “avin a laff” …at your expense …Lol!!]

    Unfortunately Mark, JM is what you see on #AUSPOL daily. It is difficult to take their shit seriously but this seems to be the standard of debate offered by the LibP and their supporters at the moment.

  19. Morning

    JM is of course taking the piss. The funniest comment so far is that Bolt, Jones, and Piers are logical. Even funnier, that Bolt and Savva are non partisan. Hilarious stuff. Keep it up JM. I enjoy a belly laugh!

  20. On twitter

    [Tony Abbott and Lance Armstrong have similarities both wear lycra both ride bicycles both pedal lies LA ruined sport TA could ruin Australia]

  21. [IF there is one thing that must really frustrate voters it is the narrow partisanship our political class adheres to. There is virtually no such thing in this country as a politician breaking ranks from their party to vote according to their conscience. And believe you me, the political class do not always agree with the policies their leaders put forward.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/parliament-plods-along-party-lines/story-fn53lw5p-1226556966209

Comments Page 65 of 72
1 64 65 66 72

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *