Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

James J relates the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at a relatively modest 54-46, compared with 56-44 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up five), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The spike in the “others” vote in the previous poll has not been repeated. On personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 29% and down three on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 32% and down five on disapproval to 56%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-36 to 38-36.

Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing had changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions related to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, party with the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).

Also:

The Australian reports that James McGrath, having failed in his bid to take on Mal Brough for the LNP preselection in Fisher, will now either return to his original plan and contest the neighbouring seat of Fairfax, or instead try for Senate preselection. The latter might transpire if Barnaby Joyce’s position becomes available, as it will if he succeeds in easing out Bruce Scott in Maranoa. However, both plans face obstacles: McGrath told preselectors in Fisher he would not use Fairfax as a fall-back option, and former Nationals expect that a Senate vacancy would be filled by one of their own.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that a fast-track preselection process will secure Peter Garrett’s endorsement in Kingsford Smith. Hypothetical rivals included local resident Bob Carr, whose old state seat of Maroubra was located wholly within the electorate, and Ben Keneally, mayoral candidate for Botany and husband of the former Premier. The report also says Labor’s candidates for the Liberal marginals of Macquarie and Gilmore are likely to be Susan Templeman and Neil Riley.

• In an interview with local blog the Warragul Citizen, Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for McMillan, says a mooted challenge to his preselection by conservative opponents failed to materialise as it had no prospect of success.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports Bill Gissane, a partner with the workplace health and safety consultancy the Enterprise Development Network, will be Labor’s candidate against Mal Brough in Fisher.

UDPATE: Roy Morgan‘s latest face-to-face result, from the previous two weekends of polling, is little changed on the previous fortnight: Labor and the Coalition both up half a point on the primary vote to 32% and 43.5%, with the Greens down half a point to 11.5%. The Coalition’s lead is 56-44 on respondent allocated preferences, down from 57-43, and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the last election result, down from 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,661 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Victoria, the journo’s are on the trail, their employers have given them the scent, anything will do if it is critical of the government.
    BER, same old sh!t, different day.
    They are a pack of dogs.

  2. Cud Chewer

    Apt classification!

    But how would you describe the pathological sycophants in his mob who see and know this 24/7 and tolerate it. For one, they do not care about the nation being in safe leadership hands.

  3. HI works at Manly Hospital and the school across the road lost its roof. Featured prominently in 9 News here. She was over there and heard the reporters asking if it was a BER roof… didn’t get an answer before HI went back to work.

    But the journos are on the trail….

    “How can we trust the ALP with the (insert-policy here) when we can’t trust them to keep roofs on school halls?” “Inefficient, costly, AND dangerous.” “This shows that Julia Gillard just doesn’t get it when it comes to the BER.” “If the ALP spent less time handing money out like a drunken sailor and more time making sure the programs they put into place work properly…”

    Writes itself, really.

  4. psyclaw,

    Yep, its a one of those comic tragedies where the ends justify the means till the point where noone can remember why they started. In this case the Liberals pursuing power by any means in pursuit of an ideology I doubt any one of them could explain.

  5. Written by me in March, 2010:

    [ In their heart of hearts, to the Coalition hard men, Tony Abbott must be a terrible disappointment. Buoyed up by the slanted ravings of Murdoch journalists and a lazy, shallow commentariat with their fake scandals and twitter-brained analysis, he, and they, have apparently come to believe their own publicity. One wonders whether there are any sober thinkers remaining to the left of the Speaker. Perhaps Nick Minchin’s announced exit from politics is a pointer to the current Coalition wisdom concerning Tony Abbott.

    As he switches from audience to audience he flips his pronouncements from ‘yea’ to ‘nay’ on any number of subjects. The Orwellian attempts by the media to rationalize Abbott’s myriad positions on just about everything, to explain them away as actually being consistent, are stymied by the fact that the only thing consistent about Tony Abbott is his inconsistency. The solution is to tell a Big Lie, and then repeat it endlessly: Tony Abbott is a conviction politician.

    I know many Labor supporters will say that Abbott is fine standing just where he is, for Labor’s sake, and to a certain extent I share that view. On the other hand we pay these people out of our taxes. We deserve something a little more adult than their leader’s current circus act.

    http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2010/03/29/Spartacus-fiddles-while-policy-roams.aspx ]

    The context was Rudd as PM, just after the Health Debate, but the character analysis is still applicable.

  6. Bludgers on the hunt.

    A State Emergency Service representative said there were reports that a roof had been blown off St Paul’s Catholic school at Manly

    Is this a BER School hall roof?

  7. Just you wait, someone posted here once that if Julia Gillard found a cure for cancer the front page of the Australian would read, “Gillard sends Oncologists to the scrapheap”
    That is what we are up against.
    The straighteners and the punishers have declared war. Labor has to fight.

  8. [Buoyed up by the slanted ravings of Murdoch journalists and a lazy, shallow commentariat with their fake scandals and twitter-brained analysis, he, and they, have apparently come to believe their own publicity. ]

    And that might possibly be his downfall.

    He did sound rather deranged and desperate lately.

  9. [If the building was given final approval for building codes etc., cant see how they can spin it]

    [With any luck its an old roof.]

    Seems like it, because I’m sure Channel 9 would have included a broken “Nation Building” sign in the report if it had been a BER roof.

    But they WERE asking…

  10. [oops is the plural rooves?]

    I’m too scared to ask that after the furore I started the other night over “led”.

    But anyway… what is it? “Roofs” or “Rooves”?

  11. cud chewer

    [Yep, its a one of those comic tragedies where the ends justify the means till the point where noone can remember why they started.]
    Graeme Richardson,a very long time ago, had this observation.He said that the problem with politics is that you quickly end up being the sort of person you entered politics to do something about in the first place.Although it may say more about his political ethos.

  12. Imacca

    [1. The plural of roof is roofs or rooves. “Rooves” is an older form of the word and rarely used these days. Australian children right up to the 1980s, for example, were brought up with the word “rooves” rather than roofs, and it is still an accepted form in Australia today (though uncommon). Also, despite New Zealand English developing from UK English, it should be noted that in NZ, the plural of roof is rooves, in both its written and spoken form.

    2. The accepted plural is “roofs”. The Oxford English Dictionary lists “rooves” as an alternate, one of several outdated spellings used in the UK, and in New England as late as the 19th century.]

  13. Nah, its roofs. Like the plural of chief is chiefs. A funny one is dwarf. seems to be either dwarfs or dwarves. English is a great language for rules, until you find the exceptions. 🙂

  14. Vic @ 3322.

    Cool. Everybody gets to be right!

    Although if we were debating whether Don Randall is a Dickh#ead is suspect it would quickly morph into a debate of degree only.

  15. [
    3319
    imacca
    Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

    Roofs
    3320
    victoria
    Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

    BB

    I believe it is rooves, but hey I dont want any trouble!!]

    ImaccA, Vicky… settle this outside please.

  16. Has-been shock jock John Laws (Sydney) showed his age, conservatism and prejudices today. “How on earth can this BMX rubbish be an Olympic sport?”

    Obviously he hasn’t bothered to even watch it before forming his narrow view.

    A rough description of a sport would be that it is a competitive activity in which hoomans try to pit their physical and intellectual charms against various rules of physics.

    BMX is all of this and more. Think I’d rather go head to head with a boxing heavyweight than ride a pushie down that so steep ramp and over those humps and bumps as fast as my legs could push me.

    A measure of John Laws’ old out of step views are best characterised by the fact that in any discussion about mental illness he still refers to “funny farms”.

  17. Reminds me of Michael Leunig, he reckoned that the Australian flag should be a sheet of corrugated iron, it’s not dependent on the wind, and most importantly, we have all fought under it.

  18. Roofs or Rooves – Who cares when there are more substantive things to consider!

    This Goat Racing idea of CanDo’s has real possibilities (http://www.skynews.com.au/offbeat/article.aspx?id=769748).

    I’m sure there are more possibilities but:

    * Education – the Queensland Institute of Goat Racing (QIGR)
    * Infrastructure – a new stadium (GoatBowl)
    * Tourism – ‘Come Goat Racing in Queensland’
    * Interstate sport – ‘State of Origin’ goat races
    * Primary Industry – fast goat breeding
    * Number Plates – ‘Qld – Home of the Quickest Goats’
    * State Revenue – Goatalisator Agency Board (GAB)
    * Manufacturing – high-tech Goat harness and carts (GoatGear)
    * Migration – that Evan Guy who used to post here – a Kev-07 supporter and another poster used to keep mentioning he had a affinity with goats

    A goat lead recovery for Qld?

  19. For anyone interested, Ad AStra at The Political Sword has a good article up about “rent seekers” …… the derivation and current relevance of the term.

  20. @702sydney: Some people will remain without power overnight according to AusGrid. Worst affected area – Gladesville. 28,000 w no power. #weather

  21. But they WERE asking…

    Yes, that is the question. What damn difference does it make who paid for the roof, unless the media were trying to make mischief?

  22. Roofs ? or Rooves ? Both are cool it seems.

    [1.The plural of roof is roofs or rooves. “Rooves” is an older form of the word and rarely used these days. Australian children right up to the 1980s, for example, were brought up with the word “rooves” rather than roofs, and it is still an accepted form in Australia today (though uncommon). Also, despite New Zealand English developing from UK English, it should be noted that in NZ, the plural of roof is rooves, in both its written and spoken form.

    2. The accepted plural is “roofs”. The Oxford English Dictionary lists “rooves” as an alternate, one of several outdated spellings used in the UK, and in New England as late as the 19th century.]

  23. ST PAUL’S MANLY

    BER PROGRAM
    (National School Pride (Pride)
    $1.3 billion to refurbish and renew existing infrastructure and build minor infrastructure. Projects include minor refurbishment of buildings, shade structures, covered outdoor learning areas, green upgrades and support for students with disabilities or special needs)

    [588 students
    NSP – $219,500
    Refurbishment of
    classrooms

    St Paul’s Catholic College, Manly have been able to refurbish some of their learning spaces with their NSP funding.

    The works included replacement of windows in learning areas and the development of a multi-purpose learning area.

    “The National School Pride Program has allowed us to develop a multi-purpose learning area that gives our students greater flexibility with their learning. We have also been able to bring forward classroom refurbishment enabling classroom windows to be fitted with safety glass. ” – Mr Chris Comerford, Principal]

    See Page 8 & Page 37

    http://www.cso.brokenbay.catholic.edu.au/about/news/pdfs/Broken%20Bay%20Catholic%20Schools_BER_2011%20Review_Final.pdf

  24. Interested in speculation upthread about the pending HC appointments, with Nettle (Victoria) and McLure (WA) getting a mention. Although, Chief Justice French is from WA so putting McLure up might make things a bit wobbly, and I cannot see that Roxon and Gillard would want to miss the opportunity to appoint another woman.

    Wonder whether Susan Kenny (federal court) is short-listed? She has been mentioned before in speculative short-lists, as a progressive appointment, but the dark years of howardism kept her on the FC bench for the past decade.

    Kenny’s credentials are really top-notch, and another woman on the HC, appointed by a female PM and AG, would shirley be righteous…

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