Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

James J relates the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at a relatively modest 54-46, compared with 56-44 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up five), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The spike in the “others” vote in the previous poll has not been repeated. On personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 29% and down three on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 32% and down five on disapproval to 56%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-36 to 38-36.

Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing had changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions related to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, party with the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).


The Australian reports that James McGrath, having failed in his bid to take on Mal Brough for the LNP preselection in Fisher, will now either return to his original plan and contest the neighbouring seat of Fairfax, or instead try for Senate preselection. The latter might transpire if Barnaby Joyce’s position becomes available, as it will if he succeeds in easing out Bruce Scott in Maranoa. However, both plans face obstacles: McGrath told preselectors in Fisher he would not use Fairfax as a fall-back option, and former Nationals expect that a Senate vacancy would be filled by one of their own.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that a fast-track preselection process will secure Peter Garrett’s endorsement in Kingsford Smith. Hypothetical rivals included local resident Bob Carr, whose old state seat of Maroubra was located wholly within the electorate, and Ben Keneally, mayoral candidate for Botany and husband of the former Premier. The report also says Labor’s candidates for the Liberal marginals of Macquarie and Gilmore are likely to be Susan Templeman and Neil Riley.

• In an interview with local blog the Warragul Citizen, Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for McMillan, says a mooted challenge to his preselection by conservative opponents failed to materialise as it had no prospect of success.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports Bill Gissane, a partner with the workplace health and safety consultancy the Enterprise Development Network, will be Labor’s candidate against Mal Brough in Fisher.

UDPATE: Roy Morgan‘s latest face-to-face result, from the previous two weekends of polling, is little changed on the previous fortnight: Labor and the Coalition both up half a point on the primary vote to 32% and 43.5%, with the Greens down half a point to 11.5%. The Coalition’s lead is 56-44 on respondent allocated preferences, down from 57-43, and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the last election result, down from 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,661 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [Mr van Onselen climbs the peak of Ruddstoration Mountain in today’s ‘The Australian.’]

    Boerwar, I listen to 2GB and read Shaun Carney, but even I can’t stomach PvO. Good on you!

  2. Well hasn’t the wind changed direction.

    Tony Wright’s mea culpa to Swan is about as close to grovelling as you’re going to get from a hack. Very different from Tony’s original smarmy put downs of Swans use of Springsteen. That only happens when said hack cops an almighty return of serve from a large number of his readers.

    All of the other Fairfax scribes have turned their rhetoric down from ‘why does she bother’, to ‘she’s gonna need some luck’. That will feed a slight, but perceptible change in their reporting. Tony’s free ride is coming to an end.

    I still think it will be a long an hard road to Labor’s ultimate victory with a few more setbacks on the way.


    Abbott really is incredibly vulnerable. If NO, NO, NO simply has overstayed it’s welcome he could disappear up his own fundament in puff of bile. One really solid Newspoll (maybe even a 48-52 with an ALP primary around 36) might be enough to do the trick. If the whispers about him start it could all end for him as quickly as it did for Turnbull. He won’t be popular in his caucus if they think he’s lumbered them with nothing more on policy that seeking to repeal a whole bunch of reforms that are either popular or at least accepted. Oh and a new tax on business to fund his PPL joke. His house of cards could crash with surprising speed.

  3. z

    [I tried not to take sides (too chicken) but would occasionally point out that it was a bit strange to say with one breath (as so many Obama supporters did) that of course, were Hillary to be the nominee, they would support her and in the other that she was a lying b*tch straight from the maws of Hell.]

    It’s much the same as Gillard supporters who say they’d back Rudd against Abbott.

    Not strange really.

  4. This banged me in the eyeballs this morning, from Mike Carlton’s column (always first read on saturdays) on Robert Hughes:

    “After his near fatal car crash outside Broome in 1999, Australians turned against him, as we always do when we decide an expatriate is up himself. The hoons in the other car tried to blackmail him. One of his tormentors was a West Australian public prosecutor, one Lloyd Rayney, who successfully sued him for defamation. In a turn of karma’s wheel, Rayney is now on trial in Perth for the murder of his wife.”

    Rayney is also a jet-setting mate of Gina Rinehart.

  5. Psephos @ 3608

    One of the things John Howard will be remembered for in Australian political history is that he transferred the Liberal Party’s international affiliation from the British Tories (who were in eclipse throughout his PM-ship) to the US Republicans. This has brought into Australian politics the same kind of reactionary stupidity that has dominated the Repubs ever since Nixon brought the white southerners into the Republican party. Liberal climate denialism comes directly from the US, and is in sharp contrast with Cameron’s science-based response. Even if Abbott wins the next election, this trend will have dire consequences for the Libs in the longer term.

    I was unaware of this. Was it well publicised at the time?

    It would make the basis of a good opinion piece in the MSM. I don’t think the Republicans are widely admired in Australia so anything tying the Libs to them would be a good thing.

  6. Well blaming electricity rises on the carbon tax, so now on channel 9 it’s increased tip costs.

    Wam bam tip costs, kabom, kabam council rates.

    Really did remind me of batman, pity it was supposed to be the news.

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