Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

James J relates the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at a relatively modest 54-46, compared with 56-44 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up five), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The spike in the “others” vote in the previous poll has not been repeated. On personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 29% and down three on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 32% and down five on disapproval to 56%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-36 to 38-36.

Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing had changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions related to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, party with the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).

Also:

• The Australian reports that James McGrath, having failed in his bid to take on Mal Brough for the LNP preselection in Fisher, will now either return to his original plan and contest the neighbouring seat of Fairfax, or instead try for Senate preselection. The latter might transpire if Barnaby Joyce’s position becomes available, as it will if he succeeds in easing out Bruce Scott in Maranoa. However, both plans face obstacles: McGrath told preselectors in Fisher he would not use Fairfax as a fall-back option, and former Nationals expect that a Senate vacancy would be filled by one of their own.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that a fast-track preselection process will secure Peter Garrett’s endorsement in Kingsford Smith. Hypothetical rivals included local resident Bob Carr, whose old state seat of Maroubra was located wholly within the electorate, and Ben Keneally, mayoral candidate for Botany and husband of the former Premier. The report also says Labor’s candidates for the Liberal marginals of Macquarie and Gilmore are likely to be Susan Templeman and Neil Riley.

• In an interview with local blog the Warragul Citizen, Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for McMillan, says a mooted challenge to his preselection by conservative opponents failed to materialise as it had no prospect of success.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports Bill Gissane, a partner with the workplace health and safety consultancy the Enterprise Development Network, will be Labor’s candidate against Mal Brough in Fisher.

UDPATE: Roy Morgan‘s latest face-to-face result, from the previous two weekends of polling, is little changed on the previous fortnight: Labor and the Coalition both up half a point on the primary vote to 32% and 43.5%, with the Greens down half a point to 11.5%. The Coalition’s lead is 56-44 on respondent allocated preferences, down from 57-43, and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the last election result, down from 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,661 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Rule by the Oligarchs
    ___________
    Craig Paul Roberts..Reagan’s Asst trerasurer and former Ed.”Wall Street Journal” and prolific writer on US affairs…and a critic of both parties…..says it no longer matters who wins the POTUS elections …as the US is ruled by the I% who are made up of… Wall St..The Bankers..The Military-Industrial Complex ..and the friends of Israel

    All up these people work to make foreign policy and will decide that the miltary gets first cut of the cake…leaving not much for ordinary people always the crucial point with decllning empires,,,,
    The people have little more than the right to choose in a Popularity contest like some pop-idol concert winner
    Nothing will change
    50 million below the poverty line and rising all the time
    He speaks of ” the dispossessed” in the USA

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/08/09/the-dispossessed-majority/

  2. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-09/world-s-oldest-shipping-company-closes-amid-industry-decline-1-.html

    [The world’s oldest shipping company sold its last vessel and is going out of business, according to the liquidator.

    Stephenson Clarke Shipping Ltd., started in 1730, has been placed into liquidation, according to a statement from accounting firm Tait Walker. The Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, England- based shipper, which employed nine people, sold off its final vessel in July, according to the statement.

    The Baltic Dry Index, a gauge of rates to transport dry- bulk commodities including grains and coal by sea, is down 55 percent this year and on course for a fourth annual slide in five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The current slump is “one of the worst experienced for many years,” the shipping company said in the statement.

    “News of the closing of Stephenson Clarke clearly shows how challenging the current economic climate is for shipping,” the U.K. Chamber of Shipping said in an e-mailed statement.]

  4. [3600
    Carey Moore
    Posted Friday, August 10, 2012 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    Hopefully the current period, where the LNP have been leading, will soon be seen as the aberration it surely deserves to be.

    One hopes. Or at least the clowns on the current Coalition front bench are replaced by more competent and less reactionary people.]

    They are the most vacuously populist bunch of idiots ever to control a major party. This is becoming more and more obvious with every passing day. The Liberals are becoming a self-cringing parody.

  6. Carey Moore
    Who have they got?, what’s more to the point, who would Murdoch pick?, we saw what happened with Downer, He thought he was a bit effete’ and bashed him for it. Nelson was the same. Abbott is a tosser, but he is a malleable tosser, right up Murdochs rather dark alley. Who is left for the libs? (english is so crazy).
    No one is left but Turnbull, and I’m thinking hell and snowballs.

  8. [Or at least the clowns on the current Coalition front bench are replaced by more competent and less reactionary people.]

    One of the things John Howard will be remembered for in Australian political history is that he transferred the Liberal Party’s international affiliation from the British Tories (who were in eclipse throughout his PM-ship) to the US Republicans. This has brought into Australian politics the same kind of reactionary stupidity that has dominated the Repubs ever since Nixon brought the white southerners into the Republican party. Liberal climate denialism comes directly from the US, and is in sharp contrast with Cameron’s science-based response. Even if Abbott wins the next election, this trend will have dire consequences for the Libs in the longer term.

  9. [One of the things John Howard will be remembered for in Australian political history is that he transferred the Liberal Party’s international affiliation from the British Tories (who were in eclipse throughout his PM-ship) to the US Republicans. This has brought into Australian politics the same kind of reactionary stupidity that has dominated the Repubs ever since Nixon brought the white southerners into the Republican party. Liberal climate denialism comes directly from the US, and is in sharp contrast with Cameron’s science-based response. Even if Abbott wins the next election, this trend will have dire consequences for the Libs in the longer term.]

    Well said.

  13. Re Libs and Republicans links re ideology
    ___________
    The links to which Psephos refers are no better illustrated than the madness often seen on Bernardi’s site “Menzies House”

    Menzies,,,,who saw himself as a “liberal” BTW… would have been appaled by the stupid reactionary stuff mouthed by Bernardi. and his “conservative “cronies . He is close to the Tea Party frame of mind

    His site attracts a hosts of “libertarian” loonies…recently one attacked the complusions associated with seat-belts and Breath -tests for boozing drivers…very “liberatarian: but in Australia it was Vic Liberal Govts who many years aho led in this country with such measures…so much for Hamer et al

  15. The hijacking of the term “libertarian” is frustrating. Neo-libertarians seem to think it just means not paying taxes or helping out the poor but, however, feel free to be as socially conservative and restrictive as possible (in addition, middle class welfare is still ok).

    It’s really frustrating. Have a differing ideology, that’s fine but don’t pretend to be something you’re not because it sounds better than “populist reactionary”

  18. Puff

    Saw tweet, makes me wonder so many in adelaide and elswhere, people do not take up free offers of pups and kits, instead of stealing.
    Still hope for yours until otherwise.
    Could not get in the 140 limit.

  21. Norwood, increasingly a Liberal seat, is to be named after Dunstan, a Labor premier.

    Playford, a Labor seat, is named after’s longest serving (Liberal) premier.

    SA’s third great premier, Kingston, a radical, has a federal seat named after him (he did serve briefly in the H of R). It has fluctuated between the two major parties but now seems solidly Labor.

  32. Toorak toff, i can only smile so much. You are bit of a loser because you lack faith, I have it , The Alp will win despite of you. You have given up.

  37. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Julia has signalled that she’s going to stay on the front foot. Good stuff!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/worst-is-over-for-labor-says-pm-20120810-23zrc.html
    Richard Ackland is far from impressed by Abbott’s IPA speech.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/free-speech-debate-is-coloured-by-hypocrisy-20120809-23×53.html
    Jessica Irvine as usual comes up with a very good contribution. This time on the lack of genuine competition in Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/true-competition-lesson-for-business-20120809-23×57.html
    A worthwhile read from Mike Carlton.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/no-end-to-the-games-politicians-play-20120810-23z99.html
    Alan Moir has had enough of Ruddstoration.

    Cathy Wilcox puts Coates’ whingeing into perspective.

  38. And from the Land of the Free –

    The Pope is tying himself in contradictory knots here.
    http://www.americablog.com/2012/08/pope-no-longer-opposed-to-condoms-kind.html
    Yes, many of the religious in the US are charming types.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/utah-road-sign-flashes-god-hates-gays-near-b
    Oh, poor Mitt!
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/10/1118678/-Romney-begs-for-mercy-Please-stop-the-Bain-and-tax-attacks-It-hurts
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/10/1118581/-Top-Romney-aide-whines-that-Mitt-s-the-victim-of-big-bad-Barack-Obama

  42. Coorey for once has no mention of Ruddstoration.

    [There are a critical nine weeks of Parliament before the end of the year and Ms Gillard’s leadership is under pressure and Labor is languishing in the polls.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/worst-is-over-for-labor-says-pm-20120810-23zrc.html#ixzz23BO4UPIJ ]

    He’s still clinging to the polls as his way out.

    But he should remember that, for the 50% of Australians who voted for Labor in 2PP form in 2010, the last thing they did Federally with the stubby pencil was to vote Labor.

    The rest is PR and spruikmanship.

  44. [- the sight of the world’s best pole vaulters, led by Australia’s own Steve Hooker, colluding to go on strike and take all remaining vaulters through to the finals.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/true-competition-lesson-for-business-20120809-23×57.html#ixzz23BQxuZ00

    I think you have to admire Steve Hooker, he got through and basically said I did no better than they others, they should come through too. And in the Geat Australian tradition put the wrong right with a strike.

    What do we have here? Another reporter that can’t be bothered following events.

  45. Lenore Taylor has some praise for Gillard’s electricity price war and concedes Abbott has been wrong-footed:

    [Gillard also neatly set up the next question. How would an Abbott government have prevented the over-investment and how would it prevent it in the future?

    Since the regulator, several states, most people in the industry, and even his energy spokesman, Ian MacFarlane, concede over-investment has occurred and is a problem, and since it is a verifiable fact that the tax is a small part of price rises over recent years, you’d think even the Coalition leader would have to stray from the script and answer with something beyond ”axe the tax”.

    But no. Abbott responded: ”I’d abolish the carbon tax, that’s what I’d do … This is a fabrication from the Prime Minister, this is an absolute furphy.”

    But the past master at setting up false conflicts and over-simplifying complex processes had the slightly irritated, bewildered tone of someone who had been beaten at his own game. And that alone means from Labor’s point of view the power war was definitely worth having.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/war-timed-to-shed-light-on-surging-power-bills-20120810-23zdx.html#ixzz23BSQNxMC ]

    It’s his obsessive personality, of course. He never expected to be in a polling position like the one he’s in, and it will take a lot for him to drop his mindless blaming of everything from a high electricity bill to a stubbed tow on the Carbon Tax.

    The longer he persists in being an idiot, the better, as far as I am concerned.

  47. Morning all

    There is a new thread re the seat of Blair.

    Anyhow thanks BK, Schnappi and others for links.

    Ms Grattan’s offering today has been a surprise, which leads me to believe Abbott is being cut loose

  48. The Northwest passage, having been open for only a day or so, remains blocked by a large raft of sea ice blown in from further northwest. In fact the extent of sea ice blocking the Northwest passage seems to have increased in size.

    The Northern Sea Route is open for the first time this year. However, it looks different from last year because the open water for part of the Northern Sea Route is a long way from the coast. The rate of ice melt for this time of the year continues to diverge significantly from the normal rate of ice melt for this time of the year. (This may be linked to wind blowing ice into warmer waters.) There still appears to be at least around 700km of sea ice between open water and the North Pole. Much of that would be the thicker multi-year ice.

    Those with a specific interest in Wrangel Island will be pleased to learn that it is possible to steam there along a large open water lead through the Chukchi Sea.

  49. Mr van Onselen climbs the peak of Ruddstoration Mountain in today’s ‘The Australian.’

    His hand-wringing focus? – what to do about Mr Rudd after the Labor Government is defeated in the next election.

    This is a pair with a previous article by Mr van Onselen in which he worried about what the Coalition could do about Mr Abbott after the Coalition wins the next election.

    The Doom and The Gloom.

  50. Patrician philosopher Shaun Carney laments that such a good Labor government is so unpopular.

    Shaun hates retail politics, like “The Polls”, but… any poll in a storm will suffice for him.

    [And yet the Gillard government is massively unpopular. Just as with Whitlam in his final months as prime minister, there is a strong appetite in the community for the removal of the government in its current form. The great difference between Whitlam and the current government is leadership. This government cannot fit the Whitlam-Hawke-Keating narrative because of what happened in June 2010, when Gillard replaced Rudd in what voters saw as an overnight coup. With the second anniversary of the 2010 election almost upon us, this appears to be something that most voters simply cannot get past. Jim Cairns hankered for Whitlam’s job but could not get there. Keating waited eight years before moving on Hawke and toppling him. Gillard did not even let Rudd run to a second election.

    The manner of Gillard’s ascension to the leadership, and her broken pledge not to implement a carbon tax, are something most voters cannot get past. On the day that Gillard moved against Rudd, she lamented that Labor was walking, semi-consciously, to a defeat. Under her, it is taking a long, long walk with its eyes open. At least for Whitlam, the end came swiftly.

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/labor-roams-unloved-in-the-shadows-of-whitlam-20120810-23zvb.html#ixzz23BYENWsz ]

    Shaun loves June 2010 as the benchmark point, but forgets that in February this year there was a full-on leadership ballot at which the issue was decided once and for all.

    He still believes the public is hankering for the Ruddster to make a triumphant return. They’re only half-heartedly going about their daily chores in a state of collective ennui, expecting the Golden Boy to take the reins again. Shaun feels their pain.

    Truly, he sounds like he’s trying to convince himself more than his readers. For a supposed gentleman political soothsayer, Shaun has a tin ear for his chosen vocation.

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