Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

James J relates the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at a relatively modest 54-46, compared with 56-44 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up five), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The spike in the “others” vote in the previous poll has not been repeated. On personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 29% and down three on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 32% and down five on disapproval to 56%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-36 to 38-36.

Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing had changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions related to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, party with the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).

Also:

• The Australian reports that James McGrath, having failed in his bid to take on Mal Brough for the LNP preselection in Fisher, will now either return to his original plan and contest the neighbouring seat of Fairfax, or instead try for Senate preselection. The latter might transpire if Barnaby Joyce’s position becomes available, as it will if he succeeds in easing out Bruce Scott in Maranoa. However, both plans face obstacles: McGrath told preselectors in Fisher he would not use Fairfax as a fall-back option, and former Nationals expect that a Senate vacancy would be filled by one of their own.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that a fast-track preselection process will secure Peter Garrett’s endorsement in Kingsford Smith. Hypothetical rivals included local resident Bob Carr, whose old state seat of Maroubra was located wholly within the electorate, and Ben Keneally, mayoral candidate for Botany and husband of the former Premier. The report also says Labor’s candidates for the Liberal marginals of Macquarie and Gilmore are likely to be Susan Templeman and Neil Riley.

• In an interview with local blog the Warragul Citizen, Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for McMillan, says a mooted challenge to his preselection by conservative opponents failed to materialise as it had no prospect of success.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports Bill Gissane, a partner with the workplace health and safety consultancy the Enterprise Development Network, will be Labor’s candidate against Mal Brough in Fisher.

UDPATE: Roy Morgan‘s latest face-to-face result, from the previous two weekends of polling, is little changed on the previous fortnight: Labor and the Coalition both up half a point on the primary vote to 32% and 43.5%, with the Greens down half a point to 11.5%. The Coalition’s lead is 56-44 on respondent allocated preferences, down from 57-43, and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the last election result, down from 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,661 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  3. The Australian reports that James McGrath, having failed in his bid to take on Mal Brough for the LNP preselection in Fisher, will now either return to his original plan and contest the neighbouring seat of Fairfax, or instead try for Senate preselection.

    I thought Mr McGrath said he wouldn’t stand for parliament, the day he got Broughed.

  6. [confessions
    Posted Monday, August 6, 2012 at 10:16 pm | Permalink
    victoria:

    You are right!]

    Actually the long term trend is rock solid: ALP primary around 30% (the last poll was a trough and this poll is a peak around that trendline, but the trend is still clear since March).

    PS: I am talking about March LAST year

  10. Looking at Q&A tonight methinks that Mr Newman is doing what Labor has failed to do for four years – damaging Brand Coalition.

  18. Fairly interesting figures all around. Gillard has gone down 3% on dissatisfaction, but her satisfaction level remains the same and she’s still behind Abbott on every personal measure. Abbott’s PPM lead has narrowed a little, but he’s gone up 2% on satisfaction and down 5% on dissatisfaction. Most of Labor’s PV improvement has come at the expense of “Others”, with the Coalition and Greens both losing a point each.

    NDIS bounce?

  28. Was that spotty faced kid BRad? I think I heard Katter refer to him as Brad.

    Tony Jones is a pig of the highest order. His preference for Brandis and, to a lesser extent, Katter, is so transparent. Actually, when I say he is a pig, he is not in Brandis’ class.

  30. Mr Brandis is extolling the virtue of building horse palaces and not making music, killing off Boys Town, job building projects for Indigenous people, literary awards, art awards, wild rivers… and business in the central CBD of Brisbane.

  31. The momentum is a-changing. 🙂

    Now that Labor is back in the game, we go in for the kill.

    I bet a lot of the improvement in Labor’s PV has occurred in Queensland. Campbell Newman should stop believing the sycophants he has obviously surrounded himself with in his government. Although, I don’t think he knows how, he has made a few really big clangers recently:

    * Not providing seed funding for a Trial of the NDIS

    * Finding $100 Million for the Gold Coast Turf Club at one and the same time

    * Threatening the funding of Breast, Bowel & Prostate Screening, despite his mealy-mouthed revisionism wrt the actuality of the decision.

    * Threatening to close a slew of Regional Court Houses/Legal Advice Centres.

    Anyway, I’m sure the breakdowns of the State by State Newspolls will make for interesting reading.

    I’d be interested to see if the local swing to Labor in WA is becoming manifest in the national figures. Barnett also gave the middle finger to the NDIS & he is now being challenged by a revitalised Labor Party, who I hope are steering clear of Brian Burke and Julian Grill. 🙂

  33. BK,

    [Poncy Young Lib…]

    I live in a certain green leafy eastern Melbourne suburb – part of Kooyong’s heartland. Formerly held by reasonable people like Menzies, Peacock and (yay!) Petro Georgiou. Now held by (former) Young Lib Josh Frydenberg.

    Despite all these illustrious people, Kooyong has been a little odd in recent years. It was the only conservative electorate to have a clear majority in favour of a republic back in 1999. For several elections, it has also had a strong Greens vote.

    Anyway, to cut to the chase: our local polling booth is one of the many local independent schools. The Young Libs traditionally man (I seriously mean, man) the entrance to the school. Back in 2007, I trotted along to vote, and found myself confonted by one of these charming young men, who offered me the Lib HTV card. I declined it, politely.

    The charming young man then told me, “Now, to get to the polling booth, you need to …”, to which I responded, glaring up at him,

    “Young man, I have been voting at this polling booth since before you were born. I think I know where to go.”

    And no doubt he put me down in his Life Experience Book as one of those (probably lesbian) Old Bats.

    In 2010 I deliberately voted elsewhere.

  34. [Rhys Muldoon ‏@rhysam
    George Brandis: “Who are these Rolling Stones of which you speak? Are they on the hit parade?” #qanda
    10:29 PM – 6 Aug 12]

  36. Boerwar,
    George Brandis is the sort of barrister who would defend a monster, if the price was right, and put his best effort in to making them sound like an angel.

  40. [Was that spotty faced kid BRad? I think I heard Katter refer to him as Brad.]

    The Brad who has been DMing C@tmomma?

    😀

  41. TLBD

    Wally had a near disastrous experience the other day. The Boss was going to get him transferred to an opposition company so that Wally would undermine it from within. Wally felt bad because for the first time in his working life he might have been useful.

    Wally=Brandis.

  42. Aha! My initial suspicion about the Ashgrove Reachtel poll was that it was a “look over here, ignore anything you might hear from Newspoll” gambit. It certainly seems to have been whipped up very quickly. Seeing the ALP catapult its PV 5 points reinforces my suspicion. If that is the case, we should be hearing from Ashgrove within an hour or so.

    Looks like the ALP 46 is a slightly lowish one. If you just add up the figures (40% of others and 80% of Greens plus the ALP 33) you get 45.8. So it’s probably between 45.6 and 46.0, I suppose. Still, it is a vote of confidence in the ALP – that 28 PV last time around was ridiculously low, I suspect an aberration. This is probably a fairly accurate reflection of where things are. I’m not very excited by it, but it’s a small step in the right direction.

  43. C@tmomma,

    [I’d be interested to see if the local swing to Labor in WA is becoming manifest in the national figures.]

    I had lunch today with a very old friend from WA, who told me that the feeling there is that WA has been unduly greedy on a whole range of matters, and is likely to find itself on the outer.

    Wait and see, I guess.

  47. Australian gold medals
    1976-0
    1980-2
    1984-4
    1988-3
    1992-7
    1996-9
    2000 -16
    2004-17
    2008-14
    Carbon tax introduced.
    2012 -1

  48. So the Costello audit has locked Newman into a death spiral battle with his state that could eventually bring Abbott undone.

    It seems that the LNP have failed to realise that it is economic structutal adjustment that sends QLDers into a tail spin. But instead of holding their hand to help them through it, they push them in the back and tell them to like it.

    Gillard quickly needs refocus her comms to talk services services services every day.

  49. Way back…

    If no-one has standing to challenge gay marriage, that’d show it was entirely symbolic (imagine creating a ’right’ without any obligations on anyone else).

    The Tory States could dress a challenge up as a request for a declaration as to whether the Tasmanian law is constitutional, on the grounds other States want to know if they have to recognize those marriages under any law using the term.

    Ironical – a conservative state arguing against states power? Only if you confuse form and substance.

    (Alas that’s why Tories are ahead in recent times; they fight like junkyard dogs over substantive outcomes whilst progressives worry about form and process.)

  50. [A shift from 56-44 to 54-46 is within the MOE.]
    Yes, for the OO is is within the MOE if going down but significant if going up.

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