Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

James J relates the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at a relatively modest 54-46, compared with 56-44 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up five), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The spike in the “others” vote in the previous poll has not been repeated. On personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 29% and down three on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 32% and down five on disapproval to 56%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-36 to 38-36.

Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing had changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions related to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, party with the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).

Also:

The Australian reports that James McGrath, having failed in his bid to take on Mal Brough for the LNP preselection in Fisher, will now either return to his original plan and contest the neighbouring seat of Fairfax, or instead try for Senate preselection. The latter might transpire if Barnaby Joyce’s position becomes available, as it will if he succeeds in easing out Bruce Scott in Maranoa. However, both plans face obstacles: McGrath told preselectors in Fisher he would not use Fairfax as a fall-back option, and former Nationals expect that a Senate vacancy would be filled by one of their own.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that a fast-track preselection process will secure Peter Garrett’s endorsement in Kingsford Smith. Hypothetical rivals included local resident Bob Carr, whose old state seat of Maroubra was located wholly within the electorate, and Ben Keneally, mayoral candidate for Botany and husband of the former Premier. The report also says Labor’s candidates for the Liberal marginals of Macquarie and Gilmore are likely to be Susan Templeman and Neil Riley.

• In an interview with local blog the Warragul Citizen, Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for McMillan, says a mooted challenge to his preselection by conservative opponents failed to materialise as it had no prospect of success.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports Bill Gissane, a partner with the workplace health and safety consultancy the Enterprise Development Network, will be Labor’s candidate against Mal Brough in Fisher.

UDPATE: Roy Morgan‘s latest face-to-face result, from the previous two weekends of polling, is little changed on the previous fortnight: Labor and the Coalition both up half a point on the primary vote to 32% and 43.5%, with the Greens down half a point to 11.5%. The Coalition’s lead is 56-44 on respondent allocated preferences, down from 57-43, and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the last election result, down from 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,661 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Aguirre – agree with you re Newspoll, but the Ashgrove Reachtel poll is appearing in the Fairfax Brisbane Times online paper, not News Ltd, so I don’t think they are connected in any “look over there” way, except possibly the Brisbane Fairfax people stealing a bit of airtime from News Ltd.

  2. Listen, a 54-46 deficit is nothing to celebrate for Labor. However, it is definitely a movement. Obviously, one poll means shit all, but if accurate, you can’t discount it.

    Either way, I except the same bullshit spin from all sides of the debate.

  3. rummel

    [Australian gold medals
    1976-0
    1980-2
    1984-4
    1988-3
    1992-7
    1996-9
    2000 -16
    2004-17
    2008-14
    Carbon tax introduced.
    2012 -1]
    Have you considered a career in politics journalism?

  4. [Dare anyone call ‘rogue’ on the 5% pv change?]

    No, nor am I calling it accurate.

    Individual polls are meaningless. It’s trends that count.

    I daresay, though, had the PV swung the other way, you wouldn’t be eager to call it a rogue. Just a hunch.

  5. A 5 point increase in the ALP primary vote is nice.

    If this is repeated in 2 weeks time Gillard will have passed the test of getting the PV up to 38% 😛

    [Dare anyone call ‘rogue’ on the 5% pv change?]

    It is rogue for those that believe the ALP primary vote is well south of 30%. You know who you are.

  6. I am the volunteer Queanbeyan corespondent to replace the sacked fairfax jurno’s who got the boot in the Canberra office

  7. The poll figures give credence to those of us who have said all long that the polls would change. It is certainly the sense we have been getting from the last couple of weeks.
    It is certainly the sense I get from that QandA audience tonight.

  8. rummel:

    Australian gold medals
    1976-0
    1980-2
    1984-4
    1988-3
    1992-7
    1996-9
    2000 -16
    2004-17
    2008-14
    Abbott starts talking down the country.
    2012 -1

    There, I’ve fixed it for you.

  9. The +5 comes from a combination of 28 being way too low last week, and a slight movement to Labor. In essence, perhaps +2.

    Interesting how both Abbott’s and Gillard’s disapprovals come down during a fortnight where they’ve both hardly been sighted.

    Whenever Labor has had a movement like this, we’ve waited in eager anticipation for the next one – only to find it correct itself back down to 30 PV.

    If Labor holds at 33 in a fortnight’s time, something can be taken out of it.

  10. Curiousity Gusface ‏@GenGusface
    pls someone post that on pointless ballbearings ATT: shows on aka known as nevilel know nothing

  11. http://mrtiedt.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/a-poke-in-gut.html

    [A State of Mind
    A closer look at NSW politics – without a vested interest, an agenda to push or a chip on my shoulder.

    Monday, August 6, 2012
    A Pokie in the Gut

    Something is always better than nothing. Right?

    It doesn’t take a great amount of human experience to know that this is not right. It applies to food, friends, music – in fact, nothing is better than something with remarkable frequency.

    We all know this to be true. Which makes the announcement about the Salvos’ deal with Clubs NSW all the more unbelievable.]
    worth reading

  12. fiona,
    That’s interesting. Maybe the Sandgropers are feeling a little guilty about the fact that the East supported them for so long but now they are as rich as Croesus their government doesn’t want to repay the favour?

    Btw, I once went to a Labor Party National Conference in Melbourne and stayed at the home of a lovely couple of ALP supporters in Kew. It was the first time I ever saw the book ‘God Under Howard’. They were a very refined, thoughtful, generous and sophisticated couple.

    Actually, another bit of Kew history wrt my extended family. The Toyne boys, sons of eminent former Olympic Team Doctor, Carlton Team Doctor & Orthopedic Surgeon, Dr Howard Toyne & whose mother was my late husband’s aunty, both grew up to be solid Labor men. Phillip Toyne established The Australian Conservation Foundation with Peter Garrett, and is his best friend, and Peter Toyne went up to the Northern Territory to teach Indigenous kids, joined the ALP and was Deputy to Clare Martin in the first NT Labor administration for a very, very long time.

    They were the sort of broad-minded patrician family you don’t see a lot of anymore. 🙂

  13. The thing about Newman (and why Gillard should both bash him daily and try to intervene to protect qlders) is I think he has put the brick on the accelerator, there is no stopping, just a little swerving.

  14. Leroy:

    Aguirre – agree with you re Newspoll, but the Ashgrove Reachtel poll is appearing in the Fairfax Brisbane Times online paper, not News Ltd, so I don’t think they are connected in any “look over there” way, except possibly the Brisbane Fairfax people stealing a bit of airtime from News Ltd.

    I admit I didn’t come up with much of a conspiracy theory there. 🙂

  15. So many possibilities:

    [Australian gold medals
    1976-0
    1980-2
    1984-4
    1988-3
    1992-7
    1996-9
    2000 -16
    2004-17
    2008-14
    LNP wins Queensland election.
    2012 -1]

  16. guytaur

    [The poll figures give credence to those of us who have said all long that the polls would change. It is certainly the sense we have been getting from the last couple of weeks.
    It is certainly the sense I get from that QandA audience tonight.]

    How is this a poll change? It’s a poll correction. It’s a change when it sticks for a month, not one is isolation.

    And using a QandA audience to guage public opinion? Sheesh.

  17. The aberration in the “others” vote last time (15%, compared with 10% in the previous poll and 12% this week) presumably meant Labor’s primary was artificially low, which takes care of some of the five-point shift. Even so, 33% is Labor’s best primary vote in a phone poll since February.

  18. [It is rogue for those that believe the ALP primary vote is well south of 30%. You know who you are.]
    If the trend is 33 then it just means Labor is back to where it was in March:

    It’s still terrible.

  19. Interesting how both Abbott’s and Gillard’s disapprovals come down during a fortnight where they’ve both hardly been sighted.

    If Gillard starts going on bike rides the ALP PV could get over 40!

  20. [I daresay, though, had the PV swung the other way, you wouldn’t be eager to call it a rogue. Just a hunch.]

    Nah. I think this is a little overcooked compared to the others. But it is good grist-for-the-mill for my ‘line up against the premiers’ strategy.

  21. Abbott … “The goverment are bullies” because they are agin free speech. He has the hide of a rhino to be talking about bullies.

    And he says the court got it wrong in finding against his mate Bolt, saying DMarr “does it too”.Sob, Sob!

  22. [The thing about Newman (and why Gillard should both bash him daily and try to intervene to protect qlders)]

    The govt need to go further than that. They need to tar Abbott with the Newman brush.

  23. The press narrative will need to be rewritten (at least for a fortnight).

    I tip the Oz will start bagging two things for the coalition:
    1. The foreign investment policy
    2. The stale frontbench and the need for a reshuffle

  24. Confessions

    The QandA audience was very keen on that. Along with a few panel members. Abbott is CanDo Federal will be a theme. Especially after Brandis confirmed it.

  25. Confessions

    I agree and more.

    Make them one in the same. But also do an “imagine what they could do together” scenario.

  26. BK,

    [Nice story fiona.]

    To be absolutely honest, I think that the Young LibThugs at the school gate are downright intimidating – which was one of the reasons that I went to another place.

  27. This little black duck

    The distance between Straya and Sheepens may get worserer.Current Olympic women shotput champeen Valerie Adams is on track………….so far to defend her title. 😆

  28. How Abbott’s ‘foreign owner register’ might work?

    I’m a farmer. I want to retire. Farm’s been on the market for a year. I’m getting a bit desperate.

    Someone makes me a reasonable offer for the land. Contracts are signed….

    …then the government steps in and says the buyer is a foreignor who already owns several other properties, and isn’t allowed to purchase mine.

    If that’s the way it would work, I don’t think the Nationals are on a winner!

  29. fiona

    last election, at my home booth, there were at least half a dozen young Libs there all day.

    Very deliberate swamping of that particular booth; I travelled around about twenty throughout the day and didn’t see those kinds of numbers anywhere else.

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