Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

James J relates the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at a relatively modest 54-46, compared with 56-44 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up five), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The spike in the “others” vote in the previous poll has not been repeated. On personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 29% and down three on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 32% and down five on disapproval to 56%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-36 to 38-36.

Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing had changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions related to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, party with the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).

Also:

The Australian reports that James McGrath, having failed in his bid to take on Mal Brough for the LNP preselection in Fisher, will now either return to his original plan and contest the neighbouring seat of Fairfax, or instead try for Senate preselection. The latter might transpire if Barnaby Joyce’s position becomes available, as it will if he succeeds in easing out Bruce Scott in Maranoa. However, both plans face obstacles: McGrath told preselectors in Fisher he would not use Fairfax as a fall-back option, and former Nationals expect that a Senate vacancy would be filled by one of their own.

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that a fast-track preselection process will secure Peter Garrett’s endorsement in Kingsford Smith. Hypothetical rivals included local resident Bob Carr, whose old state seat of Maroubra was located wholly within the electorate, and Ben Keneally, mayoral candidate for Botany and husband of the former Premier. The report also says Labor’s candidates for the Liberal marginals of Macquarie and Gilmore are likely to be Susan Templeman and Neil Riley.

• In an interview with local blog the Warragul Citizen, Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for McMillan, says a mooted challenge to his preselection by conservative opponents failed to materialise as it had no prospect of success.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports Bill Gissane, a partner with the workplace health and safety consultancy the Enterprise Development Network, will be Labor’s candidate against Mal Brough in Fisher.

UDPATE: Roy Morgan‘s latest face-to-face result, from the previous two weekends of polling, is little changed on the previous fortnight: Labor and the Coalition both up half a point on the primary vote to 32% and 43.5%, with the Greens down half a point to 11.5%. The Coalition’s lead is 56-44 on respondent allocated preferences, down from 57-43, and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the last election result, down from 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,661 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [Is it true that Norwood is going to be renamed Dunstan?]

    Correct. As of the 2014, the area currently known as the Electoral Division of Norwood will be known as the Electoral Division of Dunstan.

    [Flawed, like us all, brave, like hardly anyone.]

    Agreed. An idealist. Something rare in politics and even rarer in Australian politics.

  2. [Certainly was. Ron was an Edwards man.

    I tried explaining to Ron that it wouldn’t be a great idea to to nominate a lying douchebag who had cheated on his wife who was dying of breast cancer but Ron didn’t believe me.]

    Consider yourself lucky Ron didn’t support Gingrich then!

  3. Diogenes

    [The US election is a traditional PB activity.]

    If so, why does William not start a USA thread and spare those of us having zero interest in that charade (apart from when it affects Australia)? And keep this tread for Australia!!!!

  4. Diogenes

    [The US election is a traditional PB activity.]

    If so, why does William not start a USA thread and spare those of us having zero interest in that charade (apart from when it affects Australia)? And keep this tread for Australia!!!!

  5. swamprat

    It was WWIII here on PB. There was even a rebel group which set up another blog it got so bad.

    The living envied the dead.

  6. [If so, why does William not start a USA thread and spare those of us having zero interest in that charade (apart from when it affects Australia)? And keep this tread for Australia!!!!]

    I can’t speak for William but I’d be surprised if he didn’t have a separate thread in the lead-up to the POTUS elections which are only 3 months away.

  7. [Certainly was. Ron was an Edwards man.

    I tried explaining to Ron that it wouldn’t be a great idea to to nominate a lying douchebag who had cheated on his wife who was dying of breast cancer but Ron didn’t believe me.]

    I admit I was a fan of Edwards until it became obvious he was hiding something. Of course, when the revelations came out (after he had dropped out) nobody wanted to admit supporting him.

    I still am a fan of Elizabeth Edwards and was upset when she died.

  8. [If so, why does William not start a USA thread and spare those of us having zero interest in that charade]

    Agreed. Obama will win this year. The real battle in the US will be in 2016 when Obama has served his term. Expect fruitloops like Palin to re-emerge from the wilderness at that point.

  9. The Obama/Hillary flame wars make anything here between Labor/Greens Ruddistas/Gillardistas pale in comparison.

    I tried not to take sides (too chicken) but would occasionally point out that it was a bit strange to say with one breath (as so many Obama supporters did) that of course, were Hillary to be the nominee, they would support her and in the other that she was a lying b*tch straight from the maws of Hell.

    I ended up hiding under the bed (metaphorically speaking) until after the Democrats had sorted things out….which is why I never became an Amigo.

  10. [If so, why does William not start a USA thread and spare those of us having zero interest in that charade (apart from when it affects Australia)? And keep this tread for Australia!!!!]

    In the spirit of that, can we also have a thread for:

    – Rudd v Gillard pissing matches

    – Labor hack circlejerks

    – Coalition hack copy+pasting

    – Commentary on boring as shit sporting matches

    – Fapping over shit said on Twitter

  11. Diogenes

    [I can’t speak for William but I’d be surprised if he didn’t have a separate thread in the lead-up to the POTUS elections which are only 3 months away.]

    I bloodywell hope he does. Though is their a hypopotamus election too? what the fuck is a POTUS?

  12. Carey,
    At least it won’t take me long to read the six remaining posts. Unless, that is, we aren’t allowed to discuss the weather either.

  13. Carey

    [I admit I was a fan of Edwards until it became obvious he was hiding something.]

    And he wasn’t just hiding an affair; he was hiding a friggin’ kid! Imagine if that can out while he was President. He would have had to quit.

  14. [It has been so sedate and polite around here for months.
    Gawd, I miss the biffo.]

    I don’t. It’s far more pleasant when there’s polite disagreement.

    Be careful what you wish for.

  15. [In the spirit of that, can we also have a thread for:

    – Rudd v Gillard pissing matches

    – Labor hack circlejerks

    – Coalition hack copy+pasting

    – Commentary on boring as shit sporting matches

    – Fapping over shit said on Twitter]

    And what would be posted on PB then?

    Hehe:)

  16. I am now motivated to talk more about the US elections.

    So let’s talk Congress.

    The US Senate looks interesting. It’s gonna be a close one but it seems like the Democrats will probably just squeak out a majority (even if just by the support of Sanders, King and, possibly, Biden’s tie-breaking vote).

    OTOH, the House, despite the Dems only needing a 27 seat gain, is highly unlikely, due to the gerrymandering and high incumbency invulnerability. However, if Obama runs away with it, he could give the GOP a real scare.

  17. The USA elections are more personality contests than politics. I can see why that is very attractive to lots of people. It is really a TV programme. At the end nothing changes as far as the world is concerned.

    Its like the winner of Big Brother gets to start a war wherever he likes!!!

  18. Puff TMD,

    [Verbs at ten paces.]

    Bugger. I’m still feeling seedy, so can’t stay to watch (and adjudicate 😉 ) the mayhem.

    Goodnight, and good luck!

  19. [And he wasn’t just hiding an affair; he was hiding a friggin’ kid! Imagine if that can out while he was President. He would have had to quit.]

    Oh definitely. If he was only adulterous, it wouldn’t have been that big a deal. The best leaders can be. It was the kid and the way he was pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes.

    Not to mention his wife, with terminal cancer, was working her arse off for him, while he did this.

  20. Carey
    So they have a House, a Senate and a President?

    And there could be a Republican House, Democrat Senate and Democrat President, if your predictions are correct.

  21. [And there could be a Republican House, Democrat Senate and Democrat President, if your predictions are correct.]

    The most probable outcome, in my view. (Which, I add, is what they have now)

    A Democratic Senate is important because the Senate approves executive appointments and there’s a good chance of a Supreme Court vacancy or two to fill…

  22. TLBD

    [It works! Was that a rice cooker that snuck its way in?]

    Have a rice cooker , but if the sliver one, that is a deep fryer to cook for one or maybe two people

  23. The US House of Reps is probably the most grotesquely gerrymandered legislative chamber in the world (I’m open to correction if anyoner has any other candidates). But the gerrymandering has no partisan effect, since it’s done (a) to protect incumbents regardless of party, and (b) to create Black-majority seats. These seats are all Democrat rotten boroughs, but the partisan effect is negated by removing Black voters from all the other southern seats, making them safe for Republicans. The gerrymandering does to some extent muffle partisan swings, since most incumbents are protected, but nevertheless the House has changed hands fairly regularly since the Gingrich sweep in 1994. If Obama has a big win, the Dems will probably regain control on his coattails.

  24. [swamprat

    It was WWIII here on PB. There was even a rebel group which set up another blog it got so bad.

    The living envied the dead.]

    When the subject of dedicated US threads was broached a while back, I had this to say. However, it’s clear now that the cause of the 2008 bloodbath was not American politics per se, but the uniquely brutal nature of left-on-left violence such as Obama-versus-Clinton unleashed. So I will at some point have dedicated US threads – but only when the subject begins to devour the Australian ones, which we’re well short of at present.

  25. [3597
    Carey Moore

    Probably the most startling thing about William’s link is it was on a thread about a federal poll where Labor was leading!]

    Hopefully the current period, where the LNP have been leading, will soon be seen as the aberration it surely deserves to be.

  26. [Hopefully the current period, where the LNP have been leading, will soon be seen as the aberration it surely deserves to be.]

    One hopes. Or at least the clowns on the current Coalition front bench are replaced by more competent and less reactionary people.

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