Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

James J relates the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at a relatively modest 54-46, compared with 56-44 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up five), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The spike in the “others” vote in the previous poll has not been repeated. On personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 29% and down three on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 32% and down five on disapproval to 56%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-36 to 38-36.

Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing had changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions related to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, party with the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).

Also:

• The Australian reports that James McGrath, having failed in his bid to take on Mal Brough for the LNP preselection in Fisher, will now either return to his original plan and contest the neighbouring seat of Fairfax, or instead try for Senate preselection. The latter might transpire if Barnaby Joyce’s position becomes available, as it will if he succeeds in easing out Bruce Scott in Maranoa. However, both plans face obstacles: McGrath told preselectors in Fisher he would not use Fairfax as a fall-back option, and former Nationals expect that a Senate vacancy would be filled by one of their own.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that a fast-track preselection process will secure Peter Garrett’s endorsement in Kingsford Smith. Hypothetical rivals included local resident Bob Carr, whose old state seat of Maroubra was located wholly within the electorate, and Ben Keneally, mayoral candidate for Botany and husband of the former Premier. The report also says Labor’s candidates for the Liberal marginals of Macquarie and Gilmore are likely to be Susan Templeman and Neil Riley.

• In an interview with local blog the Warragul Citizen, Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for McMillan, says a mooted challenge to his preselection by conservative opponents failed to materialise as it had no prospect of success.

• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports Bill Gissane, a partner with the workplace health and safety consultancy the Enterprise Development Network, will be Labor’s candidate against Mal Brough in Fisher.

UDPATE: Roy Morgan‘s latest face-to-face result, from the previous two weekends of polling, is little changed on the previous fortnight: Labor and the Coalition both up half a point on the primary vote to 32% and 43.5%, with the Greens down half a point to 11.5%. The Coalition’s lead is 56-44 on respondent allocated preferences, down from 57-43, and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the last election result, down from 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,661 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. kezza2

    Glad you are here.An apology. I was hit with a super sized DOH ! moment this morning. I realised that I omitted mentioning that the calves that were given extended time with their mothers were only those selected for herd replacement. The other 85-90% were on a fast track off the farm. Sheesh no wonder what I said looked dumb so sorry for my reaction. My bad.
    My grandfather and father were very much into not doing anything that would cause the cows to have any fear or aprehension of people.Hence leaving the calves a fairly long time with their mothers. Very wise if you milk in a herringbone shed 🙂 Dogs were under the same stricture. Any dog that nipped or snapped at a cow was “outta here”.

  7. guytaur

    Come off it! I saw that report earlier today. It is simply a mismarked sheep whose mother rejected it and it is being “mothered” by a Dalmatian dog.

  8. guytaur

    re “Test” people are still recovering from the “Boom Tish” of the suggested subby effort “Spot the Difference” 😆

  15. Joe Hockey – (Latika tweeted) he said the last couple of years have been difficult, because they were constantly in campaign mode. Well, who led everyone to believe there would be an election at any moment? Joe’s leader, that’s who.

  16. Continuing that thought… If the Libs expected to bring on an election at any moment, they made no attempt to develop any policies, apparently relying on repeating the mantras of the 2010 election. Lazy lot.

  19. Poor Joe – life is hard in opposition.

    Life is hard when you try to sell stuff you don’t believe in. Joe is sad because he has to fib everyday.

  20. l

    [Did anyone else have problems with Crikey this afternoon. Mine bombed, several times.]

    No problems here. It must have been personal.

  21. [Joe is sad because he has to fib everyday.]

    And when you have no declared policies and no credible basis to even suggest what you’d do it’s even worse – poor Joe is so flexible that no one believes any of his passing ideas will carry through to a possible government.

  23. For Joe:

    ‘si tacuisses, philosophus mansisses’ (in Sir Humphrey words “If you’d kept your mouth shut we might have thought you were clever” or “Sometimes, silence is golden”).

  25. CTar1

    For Joe this classic quote may have been sage advice.

    [Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt]

  28. [It is a real point of difference with the affable Joe Hockey, who shows up in opinion polls as more electable than Abbott, but could hardly be accused of deep thinking,]

    IMHO, relative to Mr Abbott, Mr Hockey IS a deep thinker – albeit still only a skin deep thinker.

  30. Grey …

    Thanks for your kind remarks. I’ve alway been keen on teaching, so even when it’s challenging and at times infuriating, not a week goes by when I can’t think of half a dozen moments that make it worthwhile.

    Of course you should reserve the right to disagree with me. Almost everyone does, much of the time, but that’s OK with me. The world is a complex place, and as that famous philosopher, Marge Simpson once said, while one person can certainly make a difference, most of the time, they probably shouldn’t.

    I never take disagreements over public policy personally, unless of course other people insist on making it so.

  31. Boerwar

    On a sadder note that Russians consider the Chukchi people the same way the Yaarpies considered the San or Australian settlers the Aborigines.

  43. You really cannot believe the polls. Someone let slip that the undecided vote was 23%.

    This is larger than the gap between the parties. The political game is to convince that 23%. Any numbers from these poll are meaningless.

  50. Sorry about my last post. I should have pointed out was not politial minister.

    @MagdaSzubanski: Go equal marriage Tasmania! Well I know where I’m going 4 my next holiday: I’m takin’ my Map o’ Tassie & I’m headin’ down to Tassie! Yeeha!!

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