James J relates the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at a relatively modest 54-46, compared with 56-44 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up five), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The spike in the “others” vote in the previous poll has not been repeated. On personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 29% and down three on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 32% and down five on disapproval to 56%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-36 to 38-36.
Today’s Essential Research had the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing had changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions related to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, party with the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
Also:
• The Australian reports that James McGrath, having failed in his bid to take on Mal Brough for the LNP preselection in Fisher, will now either return to his original plan and contest the neighbouring seat of Fairfax, or instead try for Senate preselection. The latter might transpire if Barnaby Joyce’s position becomes available, as it will if he succeeds in easing out Bruce Scott in Maranoa. However, both plans face obstacles: McGrath told preselectors in Fisher he would not use Fairfax as a fall-back option, and former Nationals expect that a Senate vacancy would be filled by one of their own.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that a fast-track preselection process will secure Peter Garrett’s endorsement in Kingsford Smith. Hypothetical rivals included local resident Bob Carr, whose old state seat of Maroubra was located wholly within the electorate, and Ben Keneally, mayoral candidate for Botany and husband of the former Premier. The report also says Labor’s candidates for the Liberal marginals of Macquarie and Gilmore are likely to be Susan Templeman and Neil Riley.
• In an interview with local blog the Warragul Citizen, Russell Broadbent, the Liberal member for McMillan, says a mooted challenge to his preselection by conservative opponents failed to materialise as it had no prospect of success.
• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports Bill Gissane, a partner with the workplace health and safety consultancy the Enterprise Development Network, will be Labor’s candidate against Mal Brough in Fisher.
UDPATE: Roy Morgan‘s latest face-to-face result, from the previous two weekends of polling, is little changed on the previous fortnight: Labor and the Coalition both up half a point on the primary vote to 32% and 43.5%, with the Greens down half a point to 11.5%. The Coalition’s lead is 56-44 on respondent allocated preferences, down from 57-43, and 53.5-46.5 with preferences allocated as per the last election result, down from 54-46.
dwh:
[There is a material difference between saying we have 20,000 employees more than we can afford and saying we will have to sack 20,000 employees particularly when you are in the middle of negotiations about award wages and conditions.]
No, there’s a rhetorical difference. If you really have 20,000 more than you can afford then you must get rid of them as soon as possible either by attrition or sacking. Of course what you are also saying is that you can’t afford the services those 20,000 provide but you’d rather not say which services they are all at once. You want people to think of a big dumb number rather than specific people, their families or what value they contribute to the state.
I’d be very surprised if Newman had actually identified and aggregated all the services the state provides and had actually determined that the services that the state couldn’t afford or that some other agency could or would do as well were provided by 20,000 people. He’s just taken an arbitary number that he reckons he can live with and said they have to go. What the long term damage to the state turns out to be isn’t his problem because hopefully he can cost shift some of it to the Commonwealth, muddy the waters about who is to blame and when he gets voted out in a couple of terms he will say he was done by the electoral cycle but put QLD back in the black. That’s improbable but he will say it.
DOCK THE BOATS!!!!
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
PM Gillard says John Hogg is one of the most ‘decent’ people she knows and she’ll miss him when he retires as a Govt Senator in 2014.]
BK, i am in generous mood today, there is MOAR … MOAR:
[AN indigenous leader has called for racial vilification to be a criminal offence under federal law.
Les Malezer, the co-chairman of the National Congress of Australia’s First Peoples, also accused Opposition Leader Tony Abbott of ”exploiting intolerance” by promising that a Coalition government would amend anti-discrimination law to narrow the definition of racial vilification. In Mr Abbott’s view, the current laws were an infringement of free speech.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-call-on-racial-slur-blasted-20120809-23x2a.html#ixzz237i24CzM
Can someone explain to me how Asylum Seekers rendered the cracks in the hulls of these boats? Over use seems to be a stretch at least and a gross over exaggeration at most.
Grey @3242
[Lovely post.]
ta …
One child (one of the more challenging ones) said he’d prefer his quiet time in a cupboard with a sliding door. It seemed an odd request, but he said he was feeling “a little f****d”. I managed to find a cushion that was left over from Year 9 textiles last year and in he went, with the door only slightly open.
When I went to rouse him to rejoin the group he’d drifted off to sleep.
[DOCK THE BOATS!!!!]
As regards :monkey: that’s not what should be docked.
Just read Laura Tingle’s piece from earlier today:
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/abbott_struggles_to_find_form_as_6T9xNT2nvhcBHpd7dwirUP
A couple of comments:
I wouldn’t be so sure about that. For one thing, ten months from now is June, and I doubt there’ll be an election that early. And I wouldn’t be making any predictions about who’s going to win the election either. Not if you can sniff which way the wind is blowing. It’ll be close. But yes, Abbott ought to be putting some effort into taking things seriously if he wants to run the country. Glad someone is pointing that out.
Yeah, look , Tony’s not going to understand what you’re saying there Laura. To him, every policy problem is a political opportunity. That’s what he does. You might as well be telling a monkey that flinging excrement is unhygenic.
I don’t see why that should be surprising to anybody. That’s the way he’s always been. Give him a negative sentiment to capitalise on, and he’ll chatter his three-word slogans all week. Ask him to do anything else at all and he’ll flounder. He can barely read out loud the speeches that are written out for him, not without looking wooden. This is old news.
Aw, gee, sorry Tone, can’t help you there. That particular bubble was burst about 6 weeks ago. Nobody’s talking about it now. Maybe you should have considered that it’s hard to run a fear campaign on something nobody’s scared of any more?
victoria @ 3235
I have never met Andrew Giles but I know the name and think I know it from him being attacked, probably unfairly, on VexNews.
It will be interesting to see how he goes.
US begin historic Agent Orange cleanup – http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jBBIZvKqkAJ_spRSpQmOfZgIvhrA?docId=CNG.c0b27631d46b880e22415abf2a3bdcb0.4e1 – The sins of USA are catching up. Warning: Not pretty picture
The Armidale Patrol Boats were ordered not by number but by the job they are required for. They are supposed to be able to provide 3,600 ship days per year.
Or to put it another way about 270 days at sea each. If they are failing this target it is entirely the Howard Govts fault for using such an odd tendering process.
DWH
If you think that, given the s**t your Liberal mates have been chucking at the PM and the Government for a couple of years (mostly on insubstantial matters), Labor supporters are going to hold back from going in for the kill on people like Newman on matters that have at least a fair bit of substance, you’re living on the wrong planet.
About time the boot was on the other foot. No appeal by you to sweet reasonableness is going to get anywhere. They chose to live by the sword – let them suffer by it now. Normally I’m not a vengeful type, but the last couple of years exhibition by the conservatives has got me pretty fed up.
Just a reminder that about 15/3/2001 AUD = 0.48 USD – the lowest EVER – do you want to go back there?
Er David:
“From 205,000 down to 185,000, that’s 20,000 (job losses), the number that the Premier has indicated would be required, but that final number still has to be worked out,” Mr Nicholls said.
Gerry Harvey would be happy, he would be selling tellies for thousands of bucks.
The Finnigans @ 3260
Thanks for posting that link.
The whole Vietnam folly was a war crime from beginning to end.
On ‘Foreign Correspondent’ on TV on Tuesday night was yet another story of an Australian veteran returning to Vietnam to finally find peace.
Finns@3263:
[Just a reminder that about 15/3/2001 AUD = 0.48 USD – the lowest EVER – do you want to go back there?]
We bought an extra tv for the granny flat, and the support to hold it on the wall cost more than the tv. Good tv, too.
[Just a reminder that about 15/3/2001 AUD = 0.48 USD – the lowest EVER – do you want to go back there?]
Exactly one month later, April 2001, HI and I went on a 3-month odyssey around the world.
Christ, it was expensive.
Fran, I look back on my schoolteachers and immediately can see the good ones and the time servers for the wage.
You sound like a good one.
I still reserve the right to disagree with you from time to time. 🙂
Sorry Anna, Dr Who is busy. 🙁
ru
[QUEENSLAND’S unemployment is now the worst in mainland Australia and heading above 6 per cent as the State Government confirmed at least 14,000 more public service jobs would go. ]
Woo hoo!!
SA is beating someone!!
And I’m very impressed with Newman’s ability to make such an impact on hospital waiting lists, albeit in the wrong direction. It’s really hard to make that big a difference in Health.
You’ve got a real beaut there in Queensland. 😀
Interesting poll on the Age site here: Carbon tax in soft landing
If that even comes close to reflecting the population as a whole, it is a dead issue and Tone has lost.
Another of the best and brightest from the Libs completely cocks up on the NBN.
Killer conclusion:
Watching the debate between Randall and Kelly on the ABC’s Capital Hill program this week was quite amusing, I have to say. I’m not saying that everything Labor does is gold — because it’s absolutely not (hello, data retention scheme and mandatory Internet filter) — but Kelly clearly and succinctly outlined the benefits of the NBN in a way which really made sense to me, and I think Labor should adopt more widely. In comparison, Randall merely blithely repeated all of the common myths about the NBN promulgated by conservative interests. It was a very interesting study in contrasts.
To be honest, I thought the interview style really highlighted a weakness of the media right now, in that although Kelly was basically speaking the truth and Randall basically misleading the public, you wouldn’t necessarily know it from listening to either, unless you had pre-existing knowledge of the situation like I do. You’d just see two opposing points of view, both probably having some validity. I don’t think the ABC interviewer did enough to challenge Randall on his obviously inaccurate statements, and I think that’s something journalists need to do more with respect to public policy debates at the moment.
http://delimiter.com.au/2012/08/10/telstra-12mbps-wireless-to-surpass-nbn-liberal-mp/
Light relief. Is Mr Katter going to wear a dress along with his hat?
@RealBobKatter: Joining St Joseph’s school float tonight for @isarodeo Mardi Gras Parade (what’s that I hear of rumours I’ll be riding a silver bull…?)
bemused
I agree with your conclusions on the carbon price. What is more I think sections of the Liberal Party are rapily coming to the same conclusion 👿
Bemused: I want to know who IS feeling the cost of the “carbon tax”.
Proven .2% inflationary impact; compensations paid, pricing has only been in place for just over a month.
Seriously, of your average mug punter on the street, who would be feeling it at this early stage? 27% of the population at large?
I call bullshit. Menzies House lads out and about doing their stuff, methinks.
[Disclaimer:
These polls are not scientific and reflect the opinion only of visitors who have chosen to participate. ]
Is that disclaimer always been on the Age website?
Talking of the NBN, where did BG vanish to after he was called on his lies yesterday? it does seem a habit for Libs to disappear when they actually get challenged with evidence and asked to back up their positions using sourced evidence rather than bluster.
bemused
Those polls may not be scientific but it is telling that before the carbon price came in polls asking about the “tax” had the reverse figures ,or worse, for positive vs negative opinions.
We’ve seen they couldn’t do it here, but not for lack of trying…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/09/did-republicans-deliberately-crash-us-economy
[Did Republicans deliberately crash the US economy?
Be it ideology or stratagem, the GOP has blocked pro-growth policy and backed job-killing austerity – all while blaming Obama
Michael Cohen
guardian.co.uk, Saturday 9 June 2012 14.00 BST
So why does the US economy stink?
Why has job creation in America slowed to a crawl? Why, after several months of economic hope, are things suddenly turning sour? The culprits might seem obvious – uncertainty in Europe, an uneven economic recovery, fiscal and monetary policymakers immobilized and incapable of acting. But increasingly, Democrats are making the argument that the real culprit for the country’s economic woes lies in a more discrete location: with the Republican Party.
In recent days, Democrats have started coming out and saying publicly what many have been mumbling privately for years – Republicans are so intent on defeating President Obama for re-election that they are purposely sabotaging the country’s economic recovery. These charges are now being levied by Democrats such as Senate majority leader Harry Reid and Obama’s key political adviser, David Axelrod.]
Worth a read.
LOL. I just had “Babs Nation” on Twitter explain Scott Morrison’s brain fart to me.
Apparently they are “too busy ferrying illegals” around, they don’t have time to do proper maintenance.
Seriously, you couldn’t make this shit up 😀
@watermelon_man: Memo media – 2 years ago, 2 smart guys, Windsor & Oakeshott, couldn’t stomach Abbott running the country. Think they were wrong? Eh?
[In recent days, Democrats have started coming out and saying publicly what many have been mumbling privately for years – Republicans are so intent on defeating President Obama for re-election that they are purposely sabotaging the country’s economic recovery. These charges are now being levied by Democrats such as Senate majority leader Harry Reid and Obama’s key political adviser, David Axelrod.]
Over in America they take these kinds of things serious. Trash-talking the economy is almost treason in the US.
Here though, it’s:
“But Tony Abbott says…”
and that’s IT.
The tobacco judgment next Wednsday is just the pronouncement of orders so presumably reasos will be given some time in the future for the reasons.
That is a little unusual for a judgment which they have been thinking about (reserved) for some time.
The outcome now, judgment later scenario is normally reserved for cases which are very urgent or ones for which the outcome is obvious such that it can be announced straight fter the hearing but the reasons need time to be composed.
I can’t say what it means in terms of outcome but in a place like this where speculation is encouraged, I think it is a bad sign for tobacco as the urgency is the implementation of govt policy designed to save lives.
c@tmomma
Justice Nettle is older than all recent appointments but a very good judge.
Justice McClure is very good as far as I am aware too.
[SA is beating someone!!]
Actually we are in a very healthy position, with optimistic predictions for the future.
Probably would explain why we don’t have the proverbial baseball bats out for the government.
(Not arguing that we’re perfect btw. Still a lot of infrastructure and economic growth needed, as well as issues like ridiculous utilities costs)
Try again
The tobacco judgment next Wednsday is just the pronouncement of orders so presumably reasons will be given some time in the future.
[Paul Barratt @phbarratt 53m
Asylum Seeker Panel headed by former CDF ACM Angus Houston is to report on Monday. My views on task they have been set]
http://aussieobserver.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/deterring-asylum-seekers.html
[Talking of the NBN, where did BG vanish to after he was called on his lies yesterday? it does seem a habit for Libs to disappear when they actually get challenged with evidence and asked to back up their positions using sourced evidence rather than bluster.]
He’s making better use of his time, spreading Liberal Lies on the unwary in some other place..
BK
You are a generous man in saying that Mitchell’s well described and documented picture of Abbott merely makes you detest him.
The effect of reading the book about six months ago was the placing of far more malicious thoughts in my mind.
Here are just a few of Mitchell’s evidence based conclusions that Abbott:
– is like a programmed wind up toy, manufactured by his mentors in all-male institutions
– is like a boy who when faced with 2 choices wants both
– expects to get away with anything; all will be forgiven of forgotten if he aplologises
– blows where the political wind takes him
– a man of drive, cunning, incorrigible determination
– has values taught to him by older male mentors
-has values more suited to leadership of a conservative Catholic institution than a democracy
– has outdated attitudes to women out of step with what women belive about themselves and their lives
– does not embrace the future and is locked in the past
– has spent his life chasing the dreams of older, often Catholic, certainly conservative men
What foolish nation would ever accept such a person as its leader?
shellbell
Thanks as ever for your explanation for we non legal eagles of what the implications are for the various court moves.
Expect stories about jerry-built BER school halls losing their roofs in Sydney.
We are doomed
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-10/rba-forecasts-back-up-again/4190538
[RBA revises growth forecast up
By online business reporter Michael Janda
Updated August 10, 2012 15:26:11
The Reserve Bank has flipped its forecasts back upwards, reflecting a recent run of more positive economic data.
In its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, Australia’s central bank is now forecasting the economy will grow an average of 3.75 per cent over this calendar year, up from its May forecast of 3 per cent.
A large part of that is due to much stronger than expected first-quarter economic growth of 1.3 per cent.]
article & audio clip
BB
Why?
[- is like a boy who when faced with 2 choices wants both
– expects to get away with anything; all will be forgiven of forgotten if he aplologises
– blows where the political wind takes him
– a man of drive, cunning, incorrigible determination]
All symptoms of a sociopath.
[BB
Why?]
Why not?
HI works at Manly Hospital and the school across the road lost its roof. Featured prominently in 9 News here. She was over there and heard the reporters asking if it was a BER roof… didn’t get an answer before HI went back to work.
But the journos are on the trail….
Victoria
Big storms, roof(s) blown off schools.
@PaulBongiorno: Talking to Human Rights lawyers it’s clear the High Court would strike down any return to the Pacific Solution. Their views have weight
BB,
Correct me if I’m wrong, but my understanding is that part of the reason that those new school buildings were more expensive than normal was that they were built to high strength standards – precisely because they might be places of refuge.
BB
Goodness me. These buildings would have had to pass final building inspections.