The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
• Kristina Keneally will quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia, thereby initiating a by-election for her inner southern Sydney seat of Heffron, where her margin was cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at the March 2011 election. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Keneally’s favoured successor is “Michael Comninos, a former Labor government staffer”, but that party sources have also mentioned Ron Hoenig, a barrister and the mayor of Botany since 1981, and another Botany councillor, Stan Kondilios. The report also quotes Keneally saying she would “never say never” to a return to politics, but she rules out doing so at the next federal election.
• Alex Cauchi of the Wentworth Courier reports the Greens have preselected Sydney councillor Chris Harris as their candidate for the state by-election which is expected to be required in the seat of Sydney as a result of a looming legislative ban on members of parliament serving in local government. The present member for the seat is independent Clover Moore, who will seek another term as Sydney’s lord mayor in September. A looming Liberal preselection will be contested by finance broker Adrian Bartels, who fell 3.1% short of victory as the candidate at the last election, and Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard, who ran in 2003.
• Sixteen candidates have nominated for the July 21 by-election for the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, which is being followed at this dedicated post.
i was on the GC long before you i think.
These words from Mr Abbott reek of the seminary:
[I’m disappointed. I would, as I said, be very reluctant to accuse the Prime Minister of bad faith, but certainly what we’ve seen on display is pride and stubbornness.]
On pride:
[In almost every list, pride (Latin, superbia), or hubris (Greek), is considered the original and most serious of the seven deadly sins, and the source of the others. It is identified as a desire to be more important or attractive than others, failing to acknowledge the good work of others, and excessive love of self (especially holding self out of proper position toward God). Dante’s definition was “love of self perverted to hatred and contempt for one’s neighbour.” In Jacob Bidermann’s medieval miracle play, Cenodoxus, pride is the deadliest of all the sins and leads directly to the damnation of the titulary famed Parisian doctor. In perhaps the best-known example, the story of Lucifer, pride (his desire to compete with God) was what caused his fall from Heaven, and his resultant transformation into Satan. In Dante’s Divine Comedy, the penitents were forced to walk with stone slabs bearing down on their backs to induce feelings of humility.]
I guess it takes a proud person to recognise another proud person, Mr Abbott.
Finns:
Agreed. The thing which is concerning is that now they are openly admitting they won’t change it.
It signals a change from protest party to party of govt. I don’t like it.
middle man,
I’ve been here since 2005 but wish it was earlier.
not quite as long as John Hewson’s Fightback, which PJK labelled the “the world’s longest suicide note”, but this from Abbott has got to come close.
He believes his own farrago of lies about the negative effects of the Carbon Price, and its unpopularity as the first order issue come late next year.
No wonder Malcolm Turnbull and Clive Palmer (proxy for Hockey) are circling.
[Abbott: The Coalition’s Plan to Abolish the Carbon Tax
As soon as an election is called, the Coalition will take immediate and concrete steps to repeal the carbon tax.
Repealing the carbon tax will ease cost of living pressures on families, help small business and restore confidence to the economy.
On the day the election is called, I will write to the Secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet to make it clear that, if elected, the first priority of a Coalition Government will be the repeal of the carbon tax.
Within the spirit of the Caretaker conventions, I will also formally request the Clean Energy Finance Corporation to desist from making any further determinations in relation to grants, funds or financing.
If elected, the Coalition will take immediate steps to implement our plan to abolish the carbon tax.
On day one, I will instruct the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet to draft legislation that repeals the carbon tax and to have the legislation ready within one month.
On day one, the Finance Minister will notify the Clean Energy Finance Corporation that it should suspend its operations and instruct the Department of Finance to prepare legislation to permanently shut-down the Corporation.
On day one, the Environment Minister will instruct the Department to commence the implementation of the Coalition’s Direct Action Plan on climate change and carbon emissions.
Within the first month, the Cabinet will approve legislation to repeal the carbon tax.
On the first sitting day of Parliament under a Coalition Government, I will introduce legislation to repeal the carbon tax.
The first piece of legislation to be debated in the Parliament will be the repeal of the carbon tax.
As soon as the carbon tax is repealed, the Environment Minister will introduce legislation to enact the Coalition’s Direct Action Plan on climate change and carbon emissions.
Within the first sitting fortnight of Parliament, the Finance Minister will introduce legislation to shut-down the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.
I expect that the Parliament will respect the mandate of the people and repeal the carbon tax.
To oppose the mandate of a government elected on a platform of abolishing the carbon tax would be as morally reprehensible as the Gillard Government’s action to introduce a carbon tax without a mandate from the people.
If Labor and the Greens combine to block the express will of the Australian people, a Coalition Government would seek dissolution of both Houses of Parliament. We would then introduce the legislation to abolish the carbon tax at a subsequent Joint Sitting of the Parliament.
Unlike the Prime Minister, I mean what I say: there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead.]
There was only one pair of hot pants and that belongs to the Don:
1971 for me.
Did anyone see the Abbott presser today? Notice anything about the backdrop?
[It signals a change from protest party to party of govt. I don’t like it.]
Fess, no worries. The BISONs will get them.
In these troubled days on PB DO try and keep in mind some wise words
.’..Abusing other posters won’t get you far in adult company”
Now quess who was the author on this site a few days ago
Yes GG !!!!!!!
and don’t break out into uncontrolable laughter
but dear it in mind
sprocket_ he really is a turd isn’t he?
middle man,
Compared to that I am just a blow in!
no SK. what was it?
SK. arrived within months of my birth. haven’t lived there since 1999 though. all the fam are still there.
It looked like it was the PM’s office. Flag, bookshelves everything.
middle man
None my daughters are ever going to see. 😉
Tony’s proclamations are reminding me of CanDo’s. They are using the same strategy handbook. ALP are being shown the practice run right now.
Puffy,
We’re not your daughters!
PTMD:
[They used to measure the girls skirts in my high school, no more than an inch above the knee allowed.]
In my very early years of school, the older girls had to endure underpants check – not to find out if they were wearing them, but to ensure that they were of the correct colour: light green for summer, dark green for winter.
And oh, the stress that the school endured when “witches britches” were all the rage in the late 1960s…
Eventually the edict came down from upon high that witches britches were acceptable if in the school colours – any combination of green, red, and white was permitted.
And did we all rejoice! The garments covered that chilly gap between stockings and suspender belts very nicely in the frosty Canberra winters.
SK…. yep thats the strategy Can Do used.
No need to worry about the coalition changing from a party of no under Abbott.
Carbon pricing, MRRT, AS policy, NDIS etc etc etc.
He cannot help himself.
Finnigans @ 9250
[ There is no way Malcolm will demolish the #NBN. It’s not in his DNA. ]
Turnball will do whatever it takes – his recent behaviour demonstrates that he is only marginally better than the rest of the liberals. It would seem that their internal polling is showing that the NBN is popular and Turnbull has been instructed to slime and confuse their true intentions.
see there just aren’t enough suspender belts around anymore 🙁
Libs will get in and make up some BS about the cost of the NBN and call a halt to it. They’ll get Costello in to do ‘expert’ analysis of our ‘massive’ debt etc…
iday, June 29, 2012 at 10:07 pm | Permalink
It looked like it was the PM’s office. Flag, bookshelves everything.
That tells me they are desperate to change his image,’
We must alert, in twitter so e how
Any ideas
mm
Poms 88/1 after 20
hopefully Can Do gets the blowback he deserves in the next few months and the rest of the country get the yips!
CO,
I wonder if bilbo or poss has any polling on the nbn with an age/gender breakdown. It might explain the rehashing of the nbn policy.
But what is clear is the LNP are going to fight the 2010 election again. Might be their downfall.
[Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP
.@CarbonTaxFan Have prerecorded Lateline. I might be biassed but thought it went well. Look for CPyne trying to justify towing boats back]
on at 10.20 ABC1.
Tony Jones really got some traction with Morrison last night on the “tow ’em back” policy. The more questions that are asked about this state sanctioned murder, completely opposite to the principles not only of the UNHCR convention on Refugees (which the Coalition lauds when it suits) but also to legal obligations under the Law of the Sea, and all human decency.
It puts at risk the lives of young Australians on our patrol vessels. the Indonesians won’t accept it.
bk. that’s not so bad… 4.4 runs per over.
Looks like LL will be worth a look.
[ Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP
.@CarbonTaxFan Have prerecorded Lateline. I might be biassed but thought it went well. Look for CPyne trying to justify towing boats back. ]
middle man
[hopefully Can Do gets the blowback he deserves]
Yes but the name is CanJoh 😉
From fluro vests,
Shooten , fishen kissing fish , drivi g trucks , running swimming.
Itall trial and error with credln
Im with conni , bit of a worry
Any one got any tweets in mind,
Suits cannot hide the origi al budgie,
Suit over floro jaket still the same abbbott
thanks poroti. will take on board. isn’t he just a weasel? he is so similar to Tone is ridiculous. Odious little man.
gotta go hang out the nappies…. back soon.
mm @ 9273,
Suspender belts worn by (most) schoolgirls of my era were far from erotic (or any other) flights of fantasy.
9274
Middle
First sentance wash your mouth with salt:-) 🙂 🙂
Hope that was a typo
Have any of the babies woke up
my say,
Did you see my response to your comment about your oh and ordering copper stuff?
If Abbott becomes PM and goes with the mandate argument, all they need to do is say Abbott opposed the mandate for the ETS with the Greens and repeatedly ram the message home.
Beg your pardon, what the ALP need to do
Every time I see Aboot on the telly with those droning, repetitive sound bites I am reminded of this quote from Joseph Goebbels:
“The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly – it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over”
Quite chilling.
puts at risk the lives of young Australians on our patrol vessels. the Indonesians won’t accept it.
The above i had not thought of,
With tow or send boats back , get the rsl on side with that one
And to nes in trouble
Feel so sorry for carltons coach
No i didnt fiona
mm
Pons 95/2 after 23 overs.
And I’m off to bed.
Night all.
fiona. how boring… lol.
my say. i didn’t mean it. just hypothetical. toddler and baby sound asleep still.
thanks BK. night.
More chilling is the MSMs frozen, inept response to Abbott. Like rabbits in the headlight. Pathetic, weak journalists.
That said, panty-hose are a waste of resources because if you get a run in one leg, you have to throw the whole lot away.
Night BK.