I’m a day behind schedule with Seat of the Week, owing to the extra work required to give due attention to the seat which matters more than any other. I speak of course of Lindsay, the western Sydney electorate which first emerged as a favoured barometer of national opinion after Labor’s surprise defeat off a double-digit swing in 1996. Its place in electoral folklore was cemented by the 2010 election, when Labor’s apparent obsession with it caused the party’s then national secretary, Karl Bitar, to demand that every proposed policy pass a “Lindsay test”. This was seen to have inspired the shift in prime ministerial rhetoric from Kevin Rudd’s “big Australia” to Julia Gillard’s “sustainable Australia”, and a tougher line on asylum seekers which was signalled in the first days of Gillard’s prime ministership through a photo opportunity with member David Bradbury aboard a warship off Darwin.
Lindsay is based around Penrith 50 kilometres to the west of central Sydney, from which it extends into conservative semi-rural territory to the north (Castlereagh and Llandilo) and south (Mulgoa and Orchard Hills). Labor had a 12.3% notional margin when the seat was created at the 1984 election, and its inaugural member Ross Free held it for margins of around 10% throughout the Hawke-Keating years, having previously been member for Macquarie from 1980. Free was most unpleasantly surprised to find himself turfed out by an 11.9% swing to Liberal candidate Jackie Kelly at the 1996 election, but was able to secure a re-match because Kelly, who had not expected to win, had failed to get her affairs in order before nominating (she was still serving as an RAAF officer, an “office for profit under the Crown”). Voters dragged back to the polls on a technicality rewarded Free with a further 6.8% drop in the primary vote, translating into a further 5.0% swing to the Liberals on two-party preferred.
The combined 16.9% swing to the Liberals meant the electorate’s demographic profile came to be seen as typifying John Howard’s constituency: high numbers of skilled workers on good incomes, low levels of tertiary education and a distinctly less multicultural flavour than suburbs closer to the city. This view was solidified by Kelly’s persistent electoral success despite the area remaining loyal to Labor at state level. The swing to Labor in 1998 was just 0.3% compared with the 1996 election result, producing one of a number of decisive marginal seat outcomes which secured the return of the Howard government from a minority of the two-party vote. This confirmed Kelly’s status as a prime ministerial favourite, helping her win promotion for a time to a junior ministerial position thought by many to have been beyond her competence. Kelly nonetheless continued to perform well electorally, picking up a 2.4% swing in 2001 and nearly holding even in 2004. To John Howard’s dismay, Kelly opted to retire at the 2007 election, at which the seat was further endangered by a redistribution which cut the Liberal margin from 5.3% to 2.9%. Any remaining Liberal hopes, both for Lindsay and the election as a whole, were demolished in the final days of the campaign when the husbands of Kelly and her successor candidate Karen Chijoff were among those caught distributing pamphlets purporting to be from Muslim extremists, in which Labor was praised for its support of the “unjustly” treated Bali bombers.
There followed a resounding 9.7% swing to Labor candidate David Bradbury, a Blake Dawson Waldron lawyer and former Penrith mayor who had run unsuccessfully in 2001 and 2004. There were reports in 2009, denied by Bradbury, that he was not of a mind to run in Lindsay for a fourth time, as he was concerned at the impact of the state government’s unpopularity and hopeful the departure of Roger Price might provide a safer berth for him in Chifley. Labor’s concerns were powerfully reinforced by a devastating 25.7% swing in a by-election for the state seat of Penrith on 19 June 2010, which preceded Kevin Rudd’s demise as Prime Minister by five days. The interruption of the by-election resulted in what seemed an inordinately long delay in the Liberals choosing a candidate, before marketing executive Fiona Scott was finally given the nod less than a week before the election date was announced. In the event the Liberals picked up a swing of 5.2% which only slightly exceeded the 4.8% statewide swing, falling 1.1% short of what was required. The post-election review conducted for the Liberal Party by Peter Reith identified the delay as a failing of the party’s campaign, and recommended the party’s federal executive be given a “last resort” power to ensure the selection of candidates for important seats in good time.
David Bradbury has twice won promotion since his re-election, first to parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer immediately after the election, and then to Assistant Treasurer and Minister Assisting for Deregulation in March 2012 after Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge. The latter promotion was achieved at the expense of NSW Right colleague Robert McClelland, who was dumped from the ministry after publicly backing Rudd. Bradbury will again be opposed at the next election by Fiona Scott, who won a March 2012 preselection vote against Hills Shire councillor Robyn Preston by 62 votes to 42. It had been reported the previous September that Tony Abbott had approached Jackie Kelly with a view to making a comeback, but she was unequivocal in professing herself uninterested.
[Showsy,
The economy is always front and centre in any Federal election campaign. How about you produce something other than your usual bland sophistry to back up such a nonsense claim as the strength of the economy doesn’t matter.]
The strength of the economy is being taken for granted while Gillard is leader. The voters overwhelmingly don’t care about how well the economy is going and in some polls actually think the Coalition would do a better job. This should be concerning for people that want Labor to win the next election.
[At the same time you might want to consider what the election in 2013 will be about and the policies each of the major Parties will present during the campaign. Hint: the Carbon price will be neutralised and possibly forgotten. The Libs are claiming they will run on a platform of increasing taxes to average households, removing the superannuation increases and giving the miners and the big polluting companies the proceeds.]
I accept all of these things, but it in the end won’t matter if Gillard is leader, because people will go to the ballot box with the single objective of getting rid of her as leader.
[The problem with bedwetting pollclutchers like yourself is that you can’t think beyond the here and now.]
No government has won re-election with polls consistently bad for this long.
Maybe a Howard, Hawke or a Keating could dig a government out of such a position, but Gillard can’t. You can hurl all the abuse you like, but the Labor hard heads in caucus aren’t dumb, they won’t even give Gillard the opportunity to try and fluke a win, they simply won’t let Labor go into an election year with the same poll numbers it has had for the last year.
I hope people realise the carbon tax is no big deal, but keep in mind that the GST didn’t peak in unpopularity until six months AFTER it started! Gillard just doesn’t have the political capital or time to become even more unpopular.
Swamprat I trust Costello much more than I trusted Fraser (ex-QLD treasurer) besides there are two highly qualified people involved in the review. Regardless whether the debt position is heading for $86 billion or $100 billion it’s not a sustainable position for QLD. We are lucky we now have a team prepared to take the hard decisions and with a majority sufficient to absorb the political skin necessary to make those decisions.
I only hope Newman doesn’t waste his mandate the way Rudd managed to in the end. I’m confident he won’t.
Puffy I am not sure if the voters were promised the outcomes that have occurred
She can make all the promises she wants, its just that no-one will believe a word she says!
Lets face it: there is money pouring out from Canberra into people’s pockets right now, and no actual tax yet and still the ALP stocks and Gillard stocks are going backwards.
Wait till the electricity bills start coming in post carbon tax, its going to be popcorn and snuggles time for the likes of me when each time the next poll comes out!
@davidwh/1252
Too late, he already has.
And has promised too much as well, such as electricity cost freeze. he, like his bigger brother (abbott) is not a tech head.
We can predict what an Abbott Government would do.
Reduce funding for the ABC for Rupert, and merge SBS and the ABC together.
Stop the NBN and sell whats left of it to Telstra.
Sell Medibank.
Cut hard into welfare, work for the dole and after 6 months then get cut off .
Cut into Medicare.
BTW: newman didn’t cost cut a paid TV add, to attack the previous QLD LABOR WITH:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/newman-uses-tv-ad-spot-to-tout-costello-audit-20120624-20w32.html
SHAME SHAME SHAME.
[And I was out by 0 seats for the coalition and 1 seat for the ALP.]
Well sorry, but Tony Crook didn’t sit with the Coalition after the election.
And also you STILL haven’t pointed to your prediction of Labor forming government.
So it seems you just sat on the fence on the all important question of who would be PM after the election.
[This puts into perspective the value of your posts I guess! LOL ]
I’m not forcing you to read my posts, if you don’t like them, piss off to some other blog.
Seasprite.
Plus Abbott will find us another war to fight. There has to be a war.
[Well sorry, but Tony Crook didn’t sit with the Coalition after the election.]
He had “National party” next to his name on the ballot paper, which is good enough for me (and the voters)
[I’m not forcing you to read my posts, if you don’t like them, piss off to some other blog.]
Your grace when proven to be wrong in our little tete a tete just warms the cockles Shows!
You are just hilarious!
[Showson
How do you know he “will realise that nearly all of the government’s policies made a lot of sense and junking them will actually be bad for the economy”. I do not think Abbott cares about the economy.. he follows higher muses.]
Because that’s the difference between government and opposition. You can get away with saying a lot of reckless things in opposition that you can’t in government. If Abbott were to apply the same philosophy to government as opposition, he wouldn’t last as PM for a year.
[Many people in the past have made such false assumptions, like German politicians in 1933. NO i am not saying Abbott is Hitler, it is only an analogy.]
This makes no bloody sense! You can’t raise Nazy Germany as an analogy, but then say that the key feature of the analogy, i.e. the country’s slip into a dictatorship doesn’t apply.
You’ve just killed your own argument!
I would have thought the big news this week was the MSM complete stuff of the reporting of the reception the PM received at the G20 summits.
This was well covered by Grog:
http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/fairfax-and-g20-visits-what-do-we-need.html
And perhaps Peter Wicks exposure of Kathy Jackson
http://wixxy.wordpress.com/
I listened to outsiders, expecting something interesting, and what do I get, a bunch of “reporters” telling me JG is finished. Pain and zoom on steroids.
The advantage of the Blogospear is you do actually get a range of view, you do actually find information condensed and presented in a readable form.
We are being told otherwise; with column inches devoted to informing us we will miss the. The quality of the MSM reporting as fallen to a point where the loss of MSM will remove a source of rubbish that the blogospear has to push against, but little more.
In trying to unseat this government they really have fouled their nest. At a time when they where under serious threat you would have thought they would have been proving their worth, instead of using what little power they still had to peddle rubbish.
[He had “National party” next to his name on the ballot paper, which is good enough for me (and the voters)]
This makes no sense. If the W.A. Nats were in Coalition with the W.A. Liberals, then Crook’s name wouldn’t have been on the ballot paper at all because Tuckey would’ve been the Coalition candidate for the seat!
[Your grace when proven to be wrong in our little tete a tete just warms the cockles Shows!
You are just hilarious!]
I don’t show grace to morons like you.
[Reduce funding for the ABC for Rupert, and merge SBS and the ABC together.]
Well, setting aside the reduction of funding, I would support merging SBS and the ABC.
By merging them you could save some money on administration and spend it on content.
[I don’t show grace to morons like you.]
If I am a moron and I predicted the 2010 election more accurately than you, what is the adjective that describes your intellectual abilities?
I really should go to sleep, lives to save tomorrow morning and all, but I am just enjoying this so much! Hehe 🙂
[the alps ad for the next election]
Not sure that you can use parliamentary footage for election ads
Sows
You are demonstrating exactly why people will vote for Abbott and get reamed.
You think he does not mean it. You think he won’t implement his ideas. You think there can be a right-wing government in present day Australia that is not extreme.
You have drunk the kool-aid.
[If I am a moron and I predicted the 2010 election more accurately than you, what is the adjective that describes your intellectual abilities?]
Where is the link to show you predicted Labor would form government?
There you go again, making assertions but failing to back them up with any evidence.
When you are proven wrong on claims about whether Crook was in the coalition, you just skirt over the issue and pretended you didn’t make shit up.
[I really should go to sleep, lives to save tomorrow morning and all, but I am just enjoying this so much! Hehe]
Ha! The debate heats up so you decide you have to piss off!
For all the talk about Tone, the factor at the forefront of most voters minds will be how they view the performance of the Government and while many here may be daily outraged by the poor excuse of an alternative that is Tone and co but out there in voter land they are equally disgusted at Gillard and not much is going to turn that around.
Some will come back as the scare campaign is exposed but as Mod Lib says, every power bill rise will be blamed on Gillard rightly or wrongly but that is how it is.
Mod Lib,
I think people will forget about the extra money they are paying as they always do – what they won’t forget about is the massive lie that Gillard used to bring it in.
Even if, as Laborites hope, people decide that “the carbon tax isn’t so bad, after all”, they still aren’t going to forgive what amounts to the most staggeringly blatant electioneering lie in living memory.
Now, before the dominant species on PB comes in with the usual arguments about how it “wasn’t really a lie” and technically it’s “not a Labor government because the greens are involved” or some other spin, I am talking about what the non-partisan, voting public consider to be a lie — they aren’t all going to be “Oh, she said “the government I lead, but that actually meant a Labor majority government. I guess she’s got us there….. It wasn’t a lie after all! Let’s all vote for her!” — What matters is how the public perceives the government and ALP: Gillard Edition is irrevocably tainted in the eyes of most neutral observers.
At this stage I can see the Libs winning about 85-90 seats with only Katter, Bandt and Winsor on the cross bench
[Sows
You are demonstrating exactly why people will vote for Abbott and get reamed.
You think he does not mean it. You think he won’t implement his ideas. You think there can be a right-wing government in present day Australia that is not extreme.
You have drunk the kool-aid.]
Of course Abbott is an economic dunce, but when Treasury tells him all his policies are crazy, he will actually take some of that info on board.
For example, the carbon tax will never be repealed. At worst the Coalition will just change the fixed price and make it low, like $10 or so per tonne, which will just make it ineffective. It will never be repealed.
They won’t repeal the mining tax, because doing so will put a massive hole in the budget.
You can go on.
Govts everywhere are in trouble
________________
As in the depression of the 1930ies..governments everywhere are being swept away
That time saw the emergence of Hitler and Roosevelt…both swept to power by big swings
Just in Europe recently we have seen big swings in Spain/France/Greece and in the UK too and in several smaller places
In the USA Obama is looking very shaky even in the face of the Repugnant Party which is run by known Mad Hatters…the voters don’t care they hate governments
In Mexico a decent left-wing leader may beat the entrenched Right but it may not matter
as Mexico is on the way to being a failed state and probably beyond saving… a Somalia in the making ..and a real problem for the USA on it’s southern border…unlike any it has ever faced
The mad Repugnant Gov of Texas now talks of military strikes into Mexico…which might turn out to be the next Afghanistan/Vietnam for Uncle Sam…it has the virtue of being close..at least it is only a short way to send the body-bags home to the US
I was told recently by a relative there that Phoenix,Arizona is becoming a new base for the drug cartels who want to get close to their main markets,with much new violent crime..in a city with lots of problems anyway
In state elections here in Vic the ALP was very lucky to lose narowly and Bailleau is now in deep trouble…even given his rather haughty aristocratic manner(he is one of course!)
I doubt he could win a new election and with a tiny majority that is always in prospecT
I imagine that Labor will be swept out in the NT and The ACT later this year when I understand elections are due
In Tas the Labor-Green coalition might survive
Everywhere the public is sullen and angry and not listening
They hate all rulers and have a sense of entitlement
When I hear people on radio earning more than a $100.000 pa explaining that they are “Battlers” I get a laugh
but they mean it
Moslem Brotherhood wins Egyptian election with 51% vote
_____________
The generals must have been too frightened to go the final step and rig or annul the elections…
Morsi..the new Pres says he will form a National Front of centre-left parrties to form a new govt he says and then one imagines that he must confront the military
The election seems to have been fair and free
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-18571580
As a citizen ShowsOn do you feel any urge or need to do anything to prevent Abbott from becoming Prime Minister?.
ABC 24 Hour news..is relaying NOW the Al Jezerra news from Tahrir Square in Cairo and the celebration re Moslem Brotherhood’s victory in electing Pres. Morsy
Very interesting to see how Egypt goes in the next year or so. I have long felt that the secret to improving the region is for Egypt to be strong and stable. Same applies to Iran for both are traditional powers
Shows,
So you think Abbott won’t start to dismantle the PBS and Medicare, bring back a form of workchoices, put a lifetime cap on Centrelink benefits, undo environmental protections, undo the maritime national parks, introduce regressive taxation measures, increase defence spending, reopen Nauru, cut program funding to the states, increase the cost of tertiary education and start to restrict access for lower class applicants, increase homeland security-type laws, allow mining in conservation areas, defund infrastructure programs and find us another war to fight in?
Coorey’s article today is a mix of interesting and eh, but this struck me. Its very frustrating how so many editorial writers buy Abbott’s BS arguments.
[Abbott has promised that, if elected, he will abolish these two taxes. This will be complicated and financially messy but ultimately possible because, as Abbott says, what Parliament can do, Parliament can undo.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-ghost-of-issues-past-still-haunts-gillard-two-years-on-20120624-20wb0.html#ixzz1yiuSZnzH%5D
[As in the depression of the 1930ies..governments everywhere are being swept away
That time saw the emergence of Hitler and Roosevelt…both swept to power by big swings]
Hitler never won a Majority. He took over Germany with 44% of the vote, murder and the support of the right wing elites.
I bet a lot of people in Victoria regret voting in Ted.
And Tony Abbott says thank you god for people like ShowsOn,
whats the worst he can do, once he gets in he will see the error of his ways and will become a moderate Lib, he wont renege on his promise to the Miners, everything will be just like now but Tony will be PM.
[ShowsOn
..
By merging them you could save some money on administration and spend it on content.]
Given that SBS has the last remaining news service worth watching I would be against it. Diversity in public broadcasting is a goo thing.
[Seasprite
Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 1:08 am | Permalink
I bet a lot of people in Victoria regret voting in Ted.]
Ted has pretty much done nothing. It will take years for the problems to show.
[As a citizen ShowsOn do you feel any urge or need to do anything to prevent Abbott from becoming Prime Minister?.]
Yes, by campaigning for a political party that he isn’t part of.
But will I leave the country if Abbott becomes PM? No.
If Abbott governs the way he has conducted himself as opposition leader he won’t last a year in the job.
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 1:05 am | Permalink
Shows,
So you think Abbott won’t start to dismantle the PBS and Medicare, bring back a form of workchoices, put a lifetime cap on Centrelink benefits, undo environmental protections, undo the maritime national parks, introduce regressive taxation measures, increase defence spending, reopen Nauru, cut program funding to the states, increase the cost of tertiary education and start to restrict access for lower class applicants, increase homeland security-type laws, allow mining in conservation areas, defund infrastructure programs and find us another war to fight in?]
Excellent post puff, pretty much nails everything that an Abbott government would do, are you sure you’re not Tony Abbotts personal assistant?
[Shows,
So you think Abbott won’t start to dismantle the PBS and Medicare]
No. Would an Abbott government make CHANGES to Medicare? Probably. But dismantle? NO, because dismantling the PBS or Medicare would be electoral suicide. They were two of the most popular federal government programs.
[…bring back a form of workchoices]
Yes I think he would.
[…put a lifetime cap on Centrelink benefits]
No, this would be electoral suicide.
[…undo environmental protections]
Be more specific, this is very broad.
[undo the maritime national parks]
No.
[…introduce regressive taxation measures]
If you mean regressive tax cuts? No, they won’t be affordable.
[…increase defence spending]
Maybe, but where does the money come from?
[…reopen Nauru]
I think he will try, but he would still need to get a bill through parliament in order to legally have people processed there. So reopening Nauru before he does that would be a waste of money.
[ cut program funding to the states]
Name a program.
[increase the cost of tertiary education]
Yes I think he will do this. It is what the Coalition did in the UK as one of its earliest acts.
[ and start to restrict access for lower class applicants]
Well this may be an effect of the above, but it won’t be a specific goal.
[increase homeland security-type laws]
It depends on what you mean, and keep in mind the Senate would have an effective Opposition veto power for at least the first part of an Abbott government.
[allow mining in conservation areas]
Well if you mean the federal parliament will be convinced to repeal the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Act, my answer is NO.
[defund infrastructure programs and find us another war to fight in?]
Probably NO, but would a Coalition government spend money on different infrastructural programs? YES.
The next war will likely be against Iran and I suspect Australia will be part of it whoever is in government.
[And Tony Abbott says thank you god for people like ShowsOn,
whats the worst he can do, once he gets in he will see the error of his ways and will become a moderate Lib, he wont renege on his promise to the Miners, everything will be just like now but Tony will be PM.]
I never made such a claim, so thank you for verballing me.
Abbott will be a hopeless PM precisely for the reason that he has promised everything to everyone, and when he reaches the point of having to actually make tough decisions, he will piss nearly everyone off for various reasons.
It is his absurd statements as opposition leader that would condemn himself to being a hopeless Prime Minister.
But again, would I leave the country because he became PM? No, because if he governed the way he has been opposition leader, he would be lucky to stay in the job for a year.
[But will I leave the country if Abbott becomes PM? No.]
I nearly mentioned Peter Goers.
If Abbott has the same scrutiny applied as PM as he has while LOTO he could do anything, and someone else will be blamed. At least with Gillard we know where the buck stops.
[Given that SBS has the last remaining news service worth watching I would be against it. Diversity in public broadcasting is a goo thing.]
I made no comment of SBS no longer having TV or radio channels.
SBS 1 and 2 would just become ABC 5 and 6 and would exclusively present international content.
But my point is you don’t need two completely distinct organisations to do that. You should amend the ABC charter to add in the SBS charter.
If I was the Government the ABC and SBS would be merged. today with multi channeling, they can be merged into one network with half a dozen channels each focusing on a difference areas.
As Foxtel expands the need for SBS as a stand alone is lessened. next month CCTV and Al Jareea join the news channels
It would seem people did not like the honest assessment of what lays ahead for the print media.
http://mumbrella.com.au/how-prs-will-need-to-adapt-to-the-fairfax-and-news-limited-upheavals-98657
I think what she describes is right. But it’s just another step in the downward spiral of the industry.
Egyptian Election result
__________
The events in Egypt are the most important in the Islamic world…let alone the Arab world… since the fall of the Shah in 1979
The Brotherhood has a long history of being banned and persecuted from the time of the British colonialists to Nasser who murdered many of it’s leaders as did Mubarek
They have close links with Hamas in Palestine and notably in Gaza which adjoins Egypt In Gaza their win will be wildly celebrated by the people
It will add to the pressure on Israel whose leaders are isolated and have no idea how to cope with the Arab revolts going on around them and which they never imagined could happen…
New thread.
New Oz Poll just out no improvement for Govt
Bad for Gillard
______
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-still-down-two-years-after-rudd-hit/story-fn59niix-1226407089984
The Greens are at it again, they can solve the AS problem by being adult and showing they can govern, by having to compromise to govern for all Australians.
For dogs sake pass the Malaysian Bill.
Good Morning Bludgers!
ROFLMAO. 😀
Such a loyal but delusional Coalition camp follower is rummel.
If that is what ‘a shocking week’ has done for the government’s poll numbers, imagine what will happen to the Coalition numbers when the Ashby Dam breaks. Maybe nothing, maybe 60-4- the other way. 😉
Though I will admit, that with the likes of Chris Uhlmann and Marius Benson propagating the meme, already, courtesy of Newspoll’s Martin O’Shanessy(without a hint of irony), that the electors have just stopped listening to the PM and they are already waiting on their verandahs with their baseball bats, is it any wonder that such full-spectrum dominant media messaging is holding back the government’s poll numbers?
Not to mention the absolute bastardry of the Coalition, whose Orwellian argument against co-operating with the government on asylum seeker policy, that is, because they have characterised it as ‘bad policy’ they are unwilling to do anything about it, just makes me wish I believed in the power of prayer when it comes to Tony Abbott’s health. I believe in karma though, and I am waiting on my verandah for it to pay a visit to Mr Abbott. 🙂