Seat of the week: Lindsay

I’m a day behind schedule with Seat of the Week, owing to the extra work required to give due attention to the seat which matters more than any other. I speak of course of Lindsay, the western Sydney electorate which first emerged as a favoured barometer of national opinion after Labor’s surprise defeat off a double-digit swing in 1996. Its place in electoral folklore was cemented by the 2010 election, when Labor’s apparent obsession with it caused the party’s then national secretary, Karl Bitar, to demand that every proposed policy pass a “Lindsay test”. This was seen to have inspired the shift in prime ministerial rhetoric from Kevin Rudd’s “big Australia” to Julia Gillard’s “sustainable Australia”, and a tougher line on asylum seekers which was signalled in the first days of Gillard’s prime ministership through a photo opportunity with member David Bradbury aboard a warship off Darwin.

Lindsay is based around Penrith 50 kilometres to the west of central Sydney, from which it extends into conservative semi-rural territory to the north (Castlereagh and Llandilo) and south (Mulgoa and Orchard Hills). Labor had a 12.3% notional margin when the seat was created at the 1984 election, and its inaugural member Ross Free held it for margins of around 10% throughout the Hawke-Keating years, having previously been member for Macquarie from 1980. Free was most unpleasantly surprised to find himself turfed out by an 11.9% swing to Liberal candidate Jackie Kelly at the 1996 election, but was able to secure a re-match because Kelly, who had not expected to win, had failed to get her affairs in order before nominating (she was still serving as an RAAF officer, an “office for profit under the Crown”). Voters dragged back to the polls on a technicality rewarded Free with a further 6.8% drop in the primary vote, translating into a further 5.0% swing to the Liberals on two-party preferred.

The combined 16.9% swing to the Liberals meant the electorate’s demographic profile came to be seen as typifying John Howard’s constituency: high numbers of skilled workers on good incomes, low levels of tertiary education and a distinctly less multicultural flavour than suburbs closer to the city. This view was solidified by Kelly’s persistent electoral success despite the area remaining loyal to Labor at state level. The swing to Labor in 1998 was just 0.3% compared with the 1996 election result, producing one of a number of decisive marginal seat outcomes which secured the return of the Howard government from a minority of the two-party vote. This confirmed Kelly’s status as a prime ministerial favourite, helping her win promotion for a time to a junior ministerial position thought by many to have been beyond her competence. Kelly nonetheless continued to perform well electorally, picking up a 2.4% swing in 2001 and nearly holding even in 2004. To John Howard’s dismay, Kelly opted to retire at the 2007 election, at which the seat was further endangered by a redistribution which cut the Liberal margin from 5.3% to 2.9%. Any remaining Liberal hopes, both for Lindsay and the election as a whole, were demolished in the final days of the campaign when the husbands of Kelly and her successor candidate Karen Chijoff were among those caught distributing pamphlets purporting to be from Muslim extremists, in which Labor was praised for its support of the “unjustly” treated Bali bombers.

There followed a resounding 9.7% swing to Labor candidate David Bradbury, a Blake Dawson Waldron lawyer and former Penrith mayor who had run unsuccessfully in 2001 and 2004. There were reports in 2009, denied by Bradbury, that he was not of a mind to run in Lindsay for a fourth time, as he was concerned at the impact of the state government’s unpopularity and hopeful the departure of Roger Price might provide a safer berth for him in Chifley. Labor’s concerns were powerfully reinforced by a devastating 25.7% swing in a by-election for the state seat of Penrith on 19 June 2010, which preceded Kevin Rudd’s demise as Prime Minister by five days. The interruption of the by-election resulted in what seemed an inordinately long delay in the Liberals choosing a candidate, before marketing executive Fiona Scott was finally given the nod less than a week before the election date was announced. In the event the Liberals picked up a swing of 5.2% which only slightly exceeded the 4.8% statewide swing, falling 1.1% short of what was required. The post-election review conducted for the Liberal Party by Peter Reith identified the delay as a failing of the party’s campaign, and recommended the party’s federal executive be given a “last resort” power to ensure the selection of candidates for important seats in good time.

David Bradbury has twice won promotion since his re-election, first to parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer immediately after the election, and then to Assistant Treasurer and Minister Assisting for Deregulation in March 2012 after Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge. The latter promotion was achieved at the expense of NSW Right colleague Robert McClelland, who was dumped from the ministry after publicly backing Rudd. Bradbury will again be opposed at the next election by Fiona Scott, who won a March 2012 preselection vote against Hills Shire councillor Robyn Preston by 62 votes to 42. It had been reported the previous September that Tony Abbott had approached Jackie Kelly with a view to making a comeback, but she was unequivocal in professing herself uninterested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,296 comments on “Seat of the week: Lindsay”

Comments Page 25 of 26
1 … 24 25 26

  2. [swamprat
    Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 11:49 pm | Permalink
    I know i am a pessimist but I do think unless something changes we will get an Abbott PM with a large majority in lower house.

    It is stunningly disabling to think that Australia wants such an extreme right wing government. But such is life.]

    They don’t actually (see Abbott’s approval ratings)

    They just want Gillard gone.

  5. Evan,

    Low inflation, low unemployment, strong growth, low debt to GDP. In short, Gillard has delivered an economy that is the envy of the world.

    But none of that is good enough for whingeing tossers like you.

  6. All positives of ALP PM’s are lost, It does not fit the rupert narrative. Those hankering for a change would see their preferred leader treated the same unless he agreed to a deal with mordor.

    No matter who the ALP leader is, I do not think the Australian people can pull themselves out of this hole. I think they have got used to the ring through their nose.

  9. Swamprat I base my opinion on what I consider will be the outcome of this term of government in QLD. It’s at least as valid as all those opinions expressed here that Newman will be a failure. Time will tell who is more accurate.

    However at this time Newman is tackling the important issues to reverse the problems allowed to happen under the previous government.

  10. [Thanks, I think picking the possibility of a Lib win in Vic purely on my gut instincts was even better, but not going to waste my time searching for that one.]
    HA! Unbelievable!

    Saying that a party or coalition of parties has a “possibility” of winning an election IS NOT A PREDICTION!

    It is stating a truism, AKA fence sitting par-excellence!

  11. And, while my views have zero worth to anything, I think the Greens have become identified as basically a refugee Party. While i think strongly that all people should be treated with respect. I was appalled at putting children into prison camps that the Liberal Party did.

    In future I will probably look to other parties than the Greens to vote on environmental issues.

  12. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some sort of issues poll tomorrow from Newspoll.

    They haven’t released it on Sunday night for awhile. Maybe it’s to cap off Gillard’s 2 year anniversary

  14. GG: Can’t help it, this has been a seriously hilarious night!!

    When you are accused of lying, as I often am here, you can’t blame me for enjoying you squirm when I am proven to be right, as I often am!

  15. [I know i am a pessimist but I do think unless something changes we will get an Abbott PM with a large majority in lower house.]
    Well the thing that needs to be changed is who is the Labor leader.

    Labor would be total mugs to go into 2013 with Gillard as leader.

    [It is stunningly disabling to think that Australia wants such an extreme right wing government. But such is life.]
    Australia doesn’t want an extreme right or extreme left wing government. It likes boring middle of the road governments that just try to solve problems and don’t adhere strictly to any ideology.

    The general public’s dislike for Gillard is so strong that they feel Tony Abbott will be a relatively low risk PM.

    If that doesn’t shock Labor people, nothing will.

  17. Mod Lib

    Preferred Leader polls are a load of crock

    They do want Abbott. I hope you enjoy it, Stock up on the Vaseline. The Eastern states inhabitants won’t need it by then, of course.

  18. [Australia doesn’t want an extreme right ]
    Yes they do. Abbott is an extreme right-wing reactionary, and that is the world we are going to get. They are going to vote for it.

  21. [Evan,

    Low inflation, low unemployment, strong growth, low debt to GDP. In short, Gillard has delivered an economy that is the envy of the world.

    But none of that is good enough for whingeing tossers like you.]
    The strength of the economy doesn’t really matter these days because we haven’t had a recession for 20 years so voters don’t really know what a bad economy is like. Even in 2007 the economy was doing OK, although inflation was too high because the government was spending too much but not taxing enough, but that didn’t save Howard at the ballot box.

  22. Mod Lib,

    Ahem, the little matter of your Gillard prediction…….

    You’re only as good as your last prediction.

  23. davidwh

    [However at this time Newman is tackling the important issues to reverse the problems allowed to happen under the previous government.]

    I am always amused by Libs/Labs talking so seriously about the terrible problems of the previous government. Yes there are always “problems” but mostly they are invented. The previous Qld Labour Gov was not all that bad. God it ruled successfully for many years. It is very doubtful the new government will do much different. It will of course go a bit the other extreme in anti-environment and pro white show brigade corruption then we will get another ALP government to:

    [reverse the problems allowed to happen under the previous government.]

  24. Puff

    The electorate hates Abbott just as much as Gillard. The problem is Gillard is overshadowing Abbott, partly because she is the PM, partly because she hasn’t knocked him over, mostly because of the context that has overridden her leadership since the moment she became PM.

    It’s not a media problem, it’s a framing/context/public belief problem

  25. [What were your predictions Shows?

    You still haven’t said….]
    I think I predicted that Labor would win 80 seats.

    But it is interesting that a lot of your predictions for the election were actually wrong, both the seats and swings. But like a dodgy clairvoyant you are just emphasising the positive.

    You didn’t actually say who you thought would form government, whereas I thought Labor would form government and was right.

    Oh, and thanks for the laugh including NSW and QLD in your election predictions! Very funny.

  26. [Shows:

    You also haven’t responded to my posting of my 2010 predictions as you requested.

    Did you see that post?]
    Stop bossing people around, it makes people like me think you are a moron.

  27. Forget the economy…….the problem for Labor isn’t the message, it’s the messanger.
    Julia just ain’t cutting through – like it or lump it, Rudd is better at that sort of thing, plus he appeals to soft Liberal voters.
    Oh, and people feel that he was dudded this time 2 years ago.

  28. ShownOn makes a good point, a few months ago I was talking to a friend that is under 30 and she was telling me how tough business was.

    I then proceeded to point out that actually no, this business climate isn’t touch with most of the media headlines rehashed from the 1991 period when we actually had a recession. I then pointed out that yes Europe was ugly but was Asia in 1997 and now it is the engine of the global economy.

  29. [Yes they do. Abbott is an extreme right-wing reactionary, and that is the world we are going to get. They are going to vote for it.]
    I repeat my earlier point, Australian’s don’t like extremist governments at all.

    In the 1980s John Howard and the Coalition more broadly wanted to repeal MEDICARE. If any political leader went to an election saying they would abolish Medicare they wouldn’t have a hope in hell of winning.

    The Coalition may win the next election, but wanting an extreme right wing government won’t have anything to do with it.

  30. I wonder whether the obsession with the economic numbers is a trick the Libs have forced on Labour.

    The ALP was so stung by the media against the Keating Gov now the ALP is tighter than a victorian maiden. When the Libs and their cheer squad have moved on but the ALP is still desperately trying to make themselves acceptable to the financiers of the world.

  31. When the Coalition release their policies and the public can scrutinize them, I predict the polls will come back in favour to Labor, he will have to submit his policies to Treasury this time.

    Labor are not getting any breaks from the MSM, the only way I can see that they can get the message out is to spend more on advertising.

  33. [Oh, and thanks for the laugh including NSW and QLD in your election predictions! Very funny.]

    I predicted the margin of victories pretty well in both those state elections.

    Funny you say you predicted 80 seats but that it was a better prediction than my 73 seats for the ALP! Particularly given what actually happened!

    You say I got individual seats wrong, well dah! Of course, there will be some individual seats that go against what I predict but if that noise balances out and I get the final result correct, that is a pretty good prediction wouldn’t you say? Better than, oh, I don’t know, being about 20 seats off what the final margin was like you were!

    LOL, you and GG have been hilarious tonight. What with the Newspoll result its been a great session on good old PB. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end…can’t sit here playing tiddlywinks with you guys all night.

    Anon.

  34. [Labor’s banking very much on the James Ashby thing doing in Abbott – last ditch hope?]
    I think that has a better chance of damaging Brough than Abbott.

  35. GG 1213 come on if it was federal Labor running adds to tell us about carbon compensation you would be lauding the adds. Newman is letting QLD’ers know the result of the financial review and the extent of the task to start recovering the situation. It’s the most important issue on people’s minds.

  36. spur212
    It is not an ALP leadership problem. Whomever leads the ALP WILL be destroyed. What has been done to Gillard will be done to them. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool. The electorate think that Abbott is lying, because he is a liar. They reckon he won’t do what he says he will do, and whatever happens will happen to the other fella, not them.

    That is what they thought about Newman too, stupid smurfers.

    But a populace who can whinge about a winning at Royal Ascot because the margin is not big enough bloody well deserves Abbott.

  38. davidwh

    the “review” was done by Costello a Lib politician not by a neutral professional. Why are you hoodwinked by that???

  39. Showsy,

    The economy is always front and centre in any Federal election campaign. How about you produce something other than your usual bland sophistry to back up such a nonsense claim as the strength of the economy doesn’t matter.

    At the same time you might want to consider what the election in 2013 will be about and the policies each of the major Parties will present during the campaign. Hint: the Carbon price will be neutralised and possibly forgotten. The Libs are claiming they will run on a platform of increasing taxes to average households, removing the superannuation increases and giving the miners and the big polluting companies the proceeds.

    The problem with bedwetting pollclutchers like yourself is that you can’t think beyond the here and now.

  40. [Showson

    Under Abbott they will be an extreme government. You seem to me so relaxed and comfortable about that.]
    I don’t dispute that Abbott will be right wing and try to bring back Howardism.

    But the fact is, he will finally start to realise that nearly all of the government’s policies made a lot of sense and junking them will actually be bad for the economy and Abbott’s own future electoral prospects.

    For example, the VERY FIRST THING the treasury will tell him is that repealing the carbon tax is a completely stupid idea that will cost the budget and economy billions of dollars.

  41. Puff

    I saw ABC news tonight which i rarely watch now. I was stunned by the negative reporting of Black Caviar it was weird to be condemned for winning for god sake. What does this say about the ABC and our country???

  43. [At the same time you might want to consider what the election in 2013 will be about ]

    How about “You know this x that Gillard is promising? Remember what she said before the last election and what she actually did?”

    What do you think about that election ad GG?

  44. [You say I got individual seats wrong, well dah! Of course, there will be some individual seats that go against what I predict…]
    Um, well EXACTLY THAT WAS MY POINT! YOU PREDICTED THINGS THAT WERE WRONG!

    […but if that noise balances out and I get the final result correct, that is a pretty good prediction wouldn’t you say?]
    Well I don’t know because you are yet to demonstrate that you thought that Labor would form government. I predicted that Labor would form government, but I accept I didn’t predict it would be a minority government.

    [Better than, oh, I don’t know, being about 20 seats off what the final margin was like you were!]
    What are you talking about, I was out by 9 seats. I thought Labor would win 80, but they won 71

  45. Showson.
    Right now, Australians would be very comfortable with an extreme government. They elected three extreme rightwing state gov’ts just recently.

  46. Showson

    How do you know he “will realise that nearly all of the government’s policies made a lot of sense and junking them will actually be bad for the economy”. I do not think Abbott cares about the economy.. he follows higher muses.

    Many people in the past have made such false assumptions, like German politicians in 1933. NO i am not saying Abbott is Hitler, it is only an analogy.

  49. [What are you talking about, I was out by 9 seats. I thought Labor would win 80, but they won 71]

    And I was out by 0 seats for the coalition and 1 seat for the ALP.

    Apparently that wasn’t a good prediction according to you, but your 80 seat prediction was a good one.

    This puts into perspective the value of your posts I guess! LOL 🙂

  50. I am not sure if Gillard will be able to make many promises, I predict the next election campaign will be unimpressive for anyone seeking a debate about policies

Comments Page 25 of 26
1 … 24 25 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *