I’m a day behind schedule with Seat of the Week, owing to the extra work required to give due attention to the seat which matters more than any other. I speak of course of Lindsay, the western Sydney electorate which first emerged as a favoured barometer of national opinion after Labor’s surprise defeat off a double-digit swing in 1996. Its place in electoral folklore was cemented by the 2010 election, when Labor’s apparent obsession with it caused the party’s then national secretary, Karl Bitar, to demand that every proposed policy pass a “Lindsay test”. This was seen to have inspired the shift in prime ministerial rhetoric from Kevin Rudd’s “big Australia” to Julia Gillard’s “sustainable Australia”, and a tougher line on asylum seekers which was signalled in the first days of Gillard’s prime ministership through a photo opportunity with member David Bradbury aboard a warship off Darwin.
Lindsay is based around Penrith 50 kilometres to the west of central Sydney, from which it extends into conservative semi-rural territory to the north (Castlereagh and Llandilo) and south (Mulgoa and Orchard Hills). Labor had a 12.3% notional margin when the seat was created at the 1984 election, and its inaugural member Ross Free held it for margins of around 10% throughout the Hawke-Keating years, having previously been member for Macquarie from 1980. Free was most unpleasantly surprised to find himself turfed out by an 11.9% swing to Liberal candidate Jackie Kelly at the 1996 election, but was able to secure a re-match because Kelly, who had not expected to win, had failed to get her affairs in order before nominating (she was still serving as an RAAF officer, an “office for profit under the Crown”). Voters dragged back to the polls on a technicality rewarded Free with a further 6.8% drop in the primary vote, translating into a further 5.0% swing to the Liberals on two-party preferred.
The combined 16.9% swing to the Liberals meant the electorate’s demographic profile came to be seen as typifying John Howard’s constituency: high numbers of skilled workers on good incomes, low levels of tertiary education and a distinctly less multicultural flavour than suburbs closer to the city. This view was solidified by Kelly’s persistent electoral success despite the area remaining loyal to Labor at state level. The swing to Labor in 1998 was just 0.3% compared with the 1996 election result, producing one of a number of decisive marginal seat outcomes which secured the return of the Howard government from a minority of the two-party vote. This confirmed Kelly’s status as a prime ministerial favourite, helping her win promotion for a time to a junior ministerial position thought by many to have been beyond her competence. Kelly nonetheless continued to perform well electorally, picking up a 2.4% swing in 2001 and nearly holding even in 2004. To John Howard’s dismay, Kelly opted to retire at the 2007 election, at which the seat was further endangered by a redistribution which cut the Liberal margin from 5.3% to 2.9%. Any remaining Liberal hopes, both for Lindsay and the election as a whole, were demolished in the final days of the campaign when the husbands of Kelly and her successor candidate Karen Chijoff were among those caught distributing pamphlets purporting to be from Muslim extremists, in which Labor was praised for its support of the “unjustly” treated Bali bombers.
There followed a resounding 9.7% swing to Labor candidate David Bradbury, a Blake Dawson Waldron lawyer and former Penrith mayor who had run unsuccessfully in 2001 and 2004. There were reports in 2009, denied by Bradbury, that he was not of a mind to run in Lindsay for a fourth time, as he was concerned at the impact of the state government’s unpopularity and hopeful the departure of Roger Price might provide a safer berth for him in Chifley. Labor’s concerns were powerfully reinforced by a devastating 25.7% swing in a by-election for the state seat of Penrith on 19 June 2010, which preceded Kevin Rudd’s demise as Prime Minister by five days. The interruption of the by-election resulted in what seemed an inordinately long delay in the Liberals choosing a candidate, before marketing executive Fiona Scott was finally given the nod less than a week before the election date was announced. In the event the Liberals picked up a swing of 5.2% which only slightly exceeded the 4.8% statewide swing, falling 1.1% short of what was required. The post-election review conducted for the Liberal Party by Peter Reith identified the delay as a failing of the party’s campaign, and recommended the party’s federal executive be given a “last resort” power to ensure the selection of candidates for important seats in good time.
David Bradbury has twice won promotion since his re-election, first to parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer immediately after the election, and then to Assistant Treasurer and Minister Assisting for Deregulation in March 2012 after Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge. The latter promotion was achieved at the expense of NSW Right colleague Robert McClelland, who was dumped from the ministry after publicly backing Rudd. Bradbury will again be opposed at the next election by Fiona Scott, who won a March 2012 preselection vote against Hills Shire councillor Robyn Preston by 62 votes to 42. It had been reported the previous September that Tony Abbott had approached Jackie Kelly with a view to making a comeback, but she was unequivocal in professing herself uninterested.
[You’ve made the big claim, the burden of proof is on you to back it up with some evidence rather than just expecting us to take your word for it.]
Some of you seem to be very good at tracing posts. I don’t have any way to do that so if you don’t believe me thats fine. Given everything else that is said about me here, do you seriously think I am going to lose any sleep about this additional thing!!!!
So, tell me Shows, would you be impressed if it were correct? Your responses seem to indicate that you would be, and hence you want to see the evidence.
If I was right and I did indeed post the things I said I posted would you congratulate me? Hehe 🙂
Tom
I am probably being a bit harsh on ALP but i hate their privatisation’s, their refusal to argue for a real mixed economy and their adherence to every policy that comes from USA that mostly is designed to protect their industries that no longer can compete. All in the name of “free” trade. What a larf!!!
Don’t want to wait for ABC to show Wallander series 3?
ebay.co.uk search: Wallender Branagh
WALLANDER – SERIES 3 (Kenneth Branagh DVD) R2 UK PAL (Buy it now £21.95 upwards + £6 P&P) Should play on Oz Blu Ray & recent digital TVs
RELEASE DATE 23/07/12 delivery will be on or just after this date
Region 2: Europe Genre 2: Drama
Boxed Set: Yes DVD/ Blu-Ray/ HD-DVD: DVD
(also Boxed sets of Series 1&2)
[BTW Insiders reported this morning that Rudd is a reluctant bride for the Leadership. So he won’t challenge and the Party won’t vote for him if he did.]
Rudd will stick to his word and won’t challenge GILLARD. But if the right wing factional bosses tell her late this year to resign, then Rudd will jump at the chance to contest another leadership ballot because voting for him would become the less risky option because he has already had the job.
He would immediately start any leadership contest as a favourite, and if it looks like a formality that he is going to win, then it could turn out that there won’t be a ballot at all, he will be elected unanimously.
A lot of people here have made bold claims in the last few weeks or so on the left side of politics, namely that………..Gillard will win the next election, Rudd will retire from politics, Abbott will lose the Liberal leadership to Malcolm Turnball, News Ltd will collapse, Slipper will be revealed as the innocent victim of a Liberal Party inspired hatchet job etc.
How’s all of that any different from Mod Lib predicting a Liberal landslide election victory?
And by the way, Mod Lib’s prediction is on safer ground than some of the more loony, wishful thinking from the Gillard wing of the ALP.
No joy in Newspoll. 🙁
[Don’t want to wait for ABC to show Wallander series 3]
I pre-ordered mine a month ago
GG:
I found your prediction for 2010
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 4:29 pm | Permalink
My best guess is that it was 52/48 at the start, was 52/48 in the middle and now will be 52/48.
Labour to win 80 seats, Independents 3, Coalition 67.
Libs to hold the balance of power in the Senate.]
[Some of you seem to be very good at tracing posts.]
Whereas you seem to be hopeless at it, even though you are willing to make big claims about what you have written.
[I don’t have any way to do that so if you don’t believe me thats fine.]
Yes, I don’t believe you.
[Given everything else that is said about me here, do you seriously think I am going to lose any sleep about this additional thing!!!!]
I don’t care.
[So, tell me Shows, would you be impressed if it were correct? Your responses seem to indicate that you would be, and hence you want to see the evidence.]
Talking about the effect of presenting evidence isn’t the same as presenting evidence.
[If I was right and I did indeed post the things I said I posted would you congratulate me? Hehe ]]
Now you seem to be filibustering because you are unable to back up your claims with evidence.
Guytaur. I think you have a simple misunderstanding in regards to extradition by Australia to the US. The fact that the US is an enthusiastic executor of the impoverished classes is not a factor in deciding whether or not to approve extradition. Australia does however, insist that the death penalty not be sought for any person whose extradition is approved. The US has a long tradition of conceding to Australia on these matters and not seeking to impose the death penalty on extradited criminals.
Secondly, I think you misunderstand just what “consular assistance” amounts to. An embassy official has no influence on the legal process within the host country, except to ensure that the standard legal processes of the host country are followed for our citizens in legal difficulties. If a person gets themselves into trouble in a country with a legal system very different (and perhaps less fair) than Australian practice, too bad. For instance, an Australian citizen visiting Saudi Arabia might be silly enough to engage in sexual practices that readily earn them the death penalty. Consular assistance would legally only be able to ensure that the trial and execution were carried out in accordance with local best practice. Of course, diplomatic representations would be made to avoid embarassment to the reputations of both countries involved, but to be effective these would be delicate and almost silent, not features of our national political or press discourse. To see how messy those representations can be, look no further than Indonesia where crude populism by journalists and some politicians in both countries has probably put paid to any chance of a reprieve for the Bali heroin smugglers.
I mean no criticism of you with these comments.
Evan
ML is predicting several elections down the track when anyone with even half a brain knows that a week is a very long time in politics. That’s what makes him a tosser.
I don’t like giving Mod Lib a leg up, but let’s be fair.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/19/election-predictions-thread/comment-page-3/#comments
He did in fact predict 73-73-4.
Well, if Australians want an Abbott gov’t let them have it, just like Qld. They can buy the butter and bring their own barrel.
I don’t give a royal flush for them anymore. Maybe the only cure for Abbott is a good dose of Abbott.
Rudd will take the prize again if it’s offered to him – my gut feeling.
July is Gillard’s last throw of the dice.
Gary Newman has been leading a political team since 2004 and has improved his position each time he face an election. QLD will benefit from his terms as premier.
…and found mine. What a wonderful search engine Google is eh?
[Mod Lib
Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 12:22 am | Permalink
Sticking with my predictions from last Sat: National TPP swing of 1% (51.7% TPP to ALP) made up like this:
NSW 2.0%: Robertson, Macq, Gilmore, Macarthur, Bennelong & Lindsay
Qld 3.5%: Herbert, Dickson, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Leich
Other (Swan, Hasluck, Solomon, Melbourne) with only McEwen as an ALP gain
WA 2.5% but Vic -2% & SA -1.5% swings.
NSW +6, Qld +6, Oth +2 ALP to Libs and Mel ALP to Greens gives:
73 ALP and 73 Coalition 3 conservative Independents & 1 Green.
Bennelong, Lindsay and Forde were against the betting markets at the time but looking much better guesses today than last week!]
So GG thought it would be ALP 80 to LNP 67
and Modlib thought it would be ALP 73 to LNP 73 + 1 Green + 3 Indies
Final result of the 2010 election ALP 72 to LNP 73 + 1 Green + 4 indies
Looks like I wiped the floor with your prediction GG!!!! LOL 🙂
Puff, agreed, no joy in this poll.
Mod Lib, GG, I too thought ALP would win 80 seats at the last election. I didn’t pick the QLD whitewash.
Well done Mod Lib, that is quite special.
@Mod Lib/1166
No you didn’t, Greens and Indies didn’t side with LNP.
Besides, no need to gloat, it’s pathetic.
[Gary Newman has been leading a political team since 2004 …]
I thought he was rehearsing a reformed Tubeway Army in that time.
Mod Lib,
Big deal. I’m a well known party hack. Beside, it wasn’t too far out. And I didn’t lose any money.
In fact, my only predictive claim to fame was before the last SA election when I somehow concluded that the swing to the Libs in the election was all in the wrong spots and that Labor would win with a reduced majority.
davidwh
Who is Gary Newman?
And what is your basis for saying “QLD will benefit from his terms as premier.”???? How do you measure such a statement?
Puff you sound pretty despondent.
[ruawake
Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:31 am | Permalink
Labor 83- Libs 64 – Ind 3]
To get my revenge on rua beating me (probably) in our Gillard bet, I thrashed him in the 2010 election prediction:
[ruawake
Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:31 am | Permalink
Labor 83- Libs 64 – Ind 3]
not even close!
I picked 79 seats.
I remember making that post with despair… “We’ve blown a good majority, 2013 will be a tough election etc…”
OH, TO HAVE ACTUALLY WON 79 SEATS!
Hindsight, eh…
Nice to see I wiped the floor with my old mate Aguirre as well:
[Aguirre
Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:58 am | Permalink
I’m going to go with Labor 81, Coalition 65, Greens 1, others 3.
I think that’s still a bit under for Labor, but then I also think they’ll follow the usual first-term trend and go backwards a bit. Those two ideas don’t quite match up, so I’ve split the difference on it, more or less. Not sure how the knife-edge seats will break, so I won’t go there.]
Will keep all of these past predictions in mind when I hear you all say how things are going to be just fine and dandy for the ALP and not to worry! LOL 🙂
TLM
Actually I hope Abbott does win the next election. The inhabitants of this island do not deserve a modern progressive, well run, rich, secure country. They deserve a rightwing reactionary wasteland. They deserve Abbott.
The whinging about Black Caviar’s race proves that to me.
[Gusface
Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 9:18 am | Permalink
Oh Hai
100 seats nashunally to Ranga
kthxbai]
Where you at Gus, come on back please!
TLM
I may have missed your answer but I am wondering if you can name two positive about Gillard. I understand you don’t like her but I can say say several positives about Tone then why are you unable to say at least two positives.
Evan,
It’s well known that you have no guts. So a gut feeling from you has no meaning.
Besides, you’ve been predicting Gillard’s demise for two years now. When are you going to conceed you have NFI.
Sorry Shows: just can’t seem to find yours.
What was it? I am happy to take your word for it, whatever it was….
davidwh
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 11:40 pm | Permalink
Gary Newman has been leading a political team since 2004 and has improved his position each time he face an election. QLD will benefit from his terms as premier.
Campbell Newman was lord mayor and hasn’t lead a political team untill this year, Jeff Seeney was his 12th man untill he won a seat.
Gillard still down an electoral hole.
ML
[Will keep all of these past predictions in mind when I hear you all say how things are going to be just fine and dandy for the ALP and not to worry! LOL]
I don’t think many are saying that. In any event, no point predicting this far out. Just like Black Caviar’s jockey – it can be dangerous!
swamprat,
I just do not think it is worth all this angst for a population of ungrateful bogan tossers. Why build them an NBN? Pearls before swine and all that.
I know i am a pessimist but I do think unless something changes we will get an Abbott PM with a large majority in lower house.
It is stunningly disabling to think that Australia wants such an extreme right wing government. But such is life.
Gillard’s tenacity and her work ethic are to be admired.
She’s obviously also a good negotiator.
Her negatives are an appaling lack of political judgement, and an inability to communicate positively with the voting public.
She comes across to me as so wooden and programmed.
Regarding Black Cavier, I don’t think enough credit has gone to the jockey on the second and third placed horses for they would have seen that Black Cavier had never really been forced to run a race out and on a track that was heavier than our racetracks they would have known that if they could stay close then they might just pip her
[I understand you don’t like her but I can say say several positives about Tone then why are you unable to say at least two positives.]
Agreed. I can think of two positives for :monkey:
TLM thanks for that
On ABC TV News tonight: Abbott shooting basketballs with Kristina Keneally.
Um………Keneally is Labor, right? Won’t she be accused of rank disloyalty by some on PB? 😉
Mod Lib,
It’s amazing how you cast ru as a loser when it is you that forking out the dosh for a losing bet.
Clearly a case of a fool and his money being easily separated.
Mexicanbeemer: She was a far better education minister. That side of Julia seems to have been lost since she became PM.
[zoidlord
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 11:43 pm | Permalink
@Mod Lib/1166
No you didn’t, Greens and Indies didn’t side with LNP.
Besides, no need to gloat, it’s pathetic.]
No need to gloat! LOL 🙂
You guys are an absolute laugh a minute!
I am accused of being hopeless at predicting what will happen in politics, I say I did OK in recent elections, you say prove it, I say its not really worth it, you say I can’t prove it, I say fine, I go and look, and -hey presto- I am absolutely right.
Then zoidlord comes out and says I am gloating! 🙂 Just too delicious for words!
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 11:43 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib,
Big deal. I’m a well known party hack. Beside, it wasn’t too far out. And I didn’t lose any money.
In fact, my only predictive claim to fame was before the last SA election when I somehow concluded that the swing to the Libs in the election was all in the wrong spots and that Labor would win with a reduced majority.]
We do give each other a good belly laugh every now and then don’t we GG?
LOL 🙂
[It is stunningly disabling to think that Australia wants such an extreme right wing government.]
Australia doesn’t necessarily want an extreme right wing government at the moment.
But one thing’s for damn sure – they don’t want a Labor one.
Gary Newman?
http://youtu.be/Ldyx3KHOFXw
[Lynchpin
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 11:43 pm | Permalink
Well done Mod Lib, that is quite special.]
Thanks, I think picking the possibility of a Lib win in Vic purely on my gut instincts was even better, but not going to waste my time searching for that one.
Have had too much fun with the Federal poll searching already!
[On ABC TV News tonight: Abbott shooting basketballs with Kristina Keneally.
Um………Keneally is Labor, right? Won’t she be accused of rank disloyalty by some on PB?]
Now, that IS poor judgment on KK’s part, both politically and personally.
Puff
I do not entirely agree, though I often think that. The question is that the recent Government changes obviously benefit the poorest in our society but they get little benefit from it. I think the Libs have a much better communication system, whether its via their branches, shock jocks, MSM, I do not know.
The problem with the “NSW disease” is that the ALP is seen as an elite professional politician wankers organisation. The Libs are seen as real blood-oath toughs ( of which Chrissy Pyne is an example) lol lol lol