I’m a day behind schedule with Seat of the Week, owing to the extra work required to give due attention to the seat which matters more than any other. I speak of course of Lindsay, the western Sydney electorate which first emerged as a favoured barometer of national opinion after Labor’s surprise defeat off a double-digit swing in 1996. Its place in electoral folklore was cemented by the 2010 election, when Labor’s apparent obsession with it caused the party’s then national secretary, Karl Bitar, to demand that every proposed policy pass a “Lindsay test”. This was seen to have inspired the shift in prime ministerial rhetoric from Kevin Rudd’s “big Australia” to Julia Gillard’s “sustainable Australia”, and a tougher line on asylum seekers which was signalled in the first days of Gillard’s prime ministership through a photo opportunity with member David Bradbury aboard a warship off Darwin.
Lindsay is based around Penrith 50 kilometres to the west of central Sydney, from which it extends into conservative semi-rural territory to the north (Castlereagh and Llandilo) and south (Mulgoa and Orchard Hills). Labor had a 12.3% notional margin when the seat was created at the 1984 election, and its inaugural member Ross Free held it for margins of around 10% throughout the Hawke-Keating years, having previously been member for Macquarie from 1980. Free was most unpleasantly surprised to find himself turfed out by an 11.9% swing to Liberal candidate Jackie Kelly at the 1996 election, but was able to secure a re-match because Kelly, who had not expected to win, had failed to get her affairs in order before nominating (she was still serving as an RAAF officer, an “office for profit under the Crown”). Voters dragged back to the polls on a technicality rewarded Free with a further 6.8% drop in the primary vote, translating into a further 5.0% swing to the Liberals on two-party preferred.
The combined 16.9% swing to the Liberals meant the electorate’s demographic profile came to be seen as typifying John Howard’s constituency: high numbers of skilled workers on good incomes, low levels of tertiary education and a distinctly less multicultural flavour than suburbs closer to the city. This view was solidified by Kelly’s persistent electoral success despite the area remaining loyal to Labor at state level. The swing to Labor in 1998 was just 0.3% compared with the 1996 election result, producing one of a number of decisive marginal seat outcomes which secured the return of the Howard government from a minority of the two-party vote. This confirmed Kelly’s status as a prime ministerial favourite, helping her win promotion for a time to a junior ministerial position thought by many to have been beyond her competence. Kelly nonetheless continued to perform well electorally, picking up a 2.4% swing in 2001 and nearly holding even in 2004. To John Howard’s dismay, Kelly opted to retire at the 2007 election, at which the seat was further endangered by a redistribution which cut the Liberal margin from 5.3% to 2.9%. Any remaining Liberal hopes, both for Lindsay and the election as a whole, were demolished in the final days of the campaign when the husbands of Kelly and her successor candidate Karen Chijoff were among those caught distributing pamphlets purporting to be from Muslim extremists, in which Labor was praised for its support of the “unjustly” treated Bali bombers.
There followed a resounding 9.7% swing to Labor candidate David Bradbury, a Blake Dawson Waldron lawyer and former Penrith mayor who had run unsuccessfully in 2001 and 2004. There were reports in 2009, denied by Bradbury, that he was not of a mind to run in Lindsay for a fourth time, as he was concerned at the impact of the state government’s unpopularity and hopeful the departure of Roger Price might provide a safer berth for him in Chifley. Labor’s concerns were powerfully reinforced by a devastating 25.7% swing in a by-election for the state seat of Penrith on 19 June 2010, which preceded Kevin Rudd’s demise as Prime Minister by five days. The interruption of the by-election resulted in what seemed an inordinately long delay in the Liberals choosing a candidate, before marketing executive Fiona Scott was finally given the nod less than a week before the election date was announced. In the event the Liberals picked up a swing of 5.2% which only slightly exceeded the 4.8% statewide swing, falling 1.1% short of what was required. The post-election review conducted for the Liberal Party by Peter Reith identified the delay as a failing of the party’s campaign, and recommended the party’s federal executive be given a “last resort” power to ensure the selection of candidates for important seats in good time.
David Bradbury has twice won promotion since his re-election, first to parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer immediately after the election, and then to Assistant Treasurer and Minister Assisting for Deregulation in March 2012 after Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge. The latter promotion was achieved at the expense of NSW Right colleague Robert McClelland, who was dumped from the ministry after publicly backing Rudd. Bradbury will again be opposed at the next election by Fiona Scott, who won a March 2012 preselection vote against Hills Shire councillor Robyn Preston by 62 votes to 42. It had been reported the previous September that Tony Abbott had approached Jackie Kelly with a view to making a comeback, but she was unequivocal in professing herself uninterested.
Great Wallender tonight.
[Great Wallender tonight.]
Yes it was very good.
daretotread
yes, how you deal with them is what makes them gamechangers.
I’m not predicting one, or even relying on one (I’d still rather a steady drift…) but they have changed elections in the past.
!030……Re two child policy in China
___________
Actually given the huge population now I can understand the Chinese desire to keep to a 2 child policy. despite the harshness of it’s application..what is their alternative ?
or should they be like India which has given up.it’s once extensive population programs.. on my one visit to India I found it a crowded poverty stricken and repellent society,,,
Lynchpin
It was a $3million exercise.
When I pointed out to him about a few (haha) lacks in Brisbane’s infrastructure compared with other Australian cities, his comment was that the “perception” of locals was not that there was any lack and the perception was the only thing that was important.
The vision of a Liberal army engineer. Totally out of his depths at running a complex thing like a city. He actually reminded my of Joh.
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 11:02 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib,
Displaying more bad judgements I see.
Your predictive powers have proven to be most untrustworthy. When waffle turns to wager you are the house dud!]
I picked the Vic, NSW, Qld and last Federal elections pretty much on the dot, not to mention the way all the Indies would go and the previous US election as well. I have no problems with my assessments.
I can’t be held accountable for the stupidity of the ALP caucus though! Thats your problem!!!
If you insist on staying with Gillard and are happy to cop the electoral flak for that decision, then cop it sweet and watch the Liberal Party do what it wishes for the next few terms, at state and federal level.
You have made your bed, now you get to sleep in it…. 🙂
Swamprat, is he smart, or just has a lot of front?
[He actually reminded my of Joh.]
So now we have found what interests him – big, fat brown paper bags
swamprat
What was your take of Newman as a person
zoidlord
You can rationalise it but I’m telling you that the context around it looks terrible. Using the word “cash” is even worse.
When Howard showered the electorate with $60 Billion, he was smart enough not to refer to it as cash. He used all sorts of names to rationalise the payment to voters
zoidland
[How much did Howard give to voters when GST was introduced?]
Gave me $3,000
[cop it sweet and watch the Liberal Party do what it wishes for the next few terms, at state and federal level.
You have made your bed, now you get to sleep in it….]
Again the tosser routine. Do you work at it or does it come naturally?
Agree with everyone that WALLANDER is brilliant TV – Kenneth Branagh of course is terrific in the main role. 🙂
[I picked the Vic, NSW, Qld and last Federal elections pretty much on the dot]
You seriously picked the Coalition winning in Victoria with a 1 seat majority? Can you provide some proof of this claim?
And same goes for the federal parliament. You seriously picked a hung parliament with a Labor minority government? Evidence?
I have no idea if he is “smart”. Some people are smart at certain things like Joh was even though their education is very lacking. he seemed to me very unrelaxed at discussing issues with professionals (maybe ignorant) a bit pompous and self important without the intellect to go with it.
Possibly the short man syndrome
[Agree with everyone that WALLANDER is brilliant TV]
I thought it might be a bit too adult for you Evan
@spur212/1110
And how much was that from selling Telstra?
I do not understand the voters when they claim that this and that, when selling infrastructure including the biggest infrastructure that Australia has, to private industry.
That seems to make him Mod Libs ideal Premier
Mod Lib,
Talk is cheap. Your talk of amazing powers without evidence is truly the spiel of a snake oil salesman.
The only documented measurement of your predictive powers, the ru wager shows you up as being terribly unreliable.
But I’m sure you will bluster away.
[Again the tosser routine. Do you work at it or does it come naturally?]
Oh, c’mon Tom, give your political enemies a break!
We had about a decade under Fraser, then you guys had more than a decade under Hawke/Keating, then we had another decade, then you stuffed up monumentally and let us cut into your turn and make it ours!
Thats how politics works and its our turn now to take Australia in whatever direction we want at the State and Federal levels.
Now all the Coalition need to do is let the public know where Australia is heading….as long as it is away from Gillard, very few will care!
[You seriously picked the Coalition winning in Victoria with a 1 seat majority? Can you provide some proof of this claim?
And same goes for the federal parliament. You seriously picked a hung parliament with a Labor minority government? Evidence?]
Don’t hold your breath Shows
With modesty, remember I called 55-45… hehe.
Although it’s not a surprise.
Swamprat he managed to run BCC without losing too much skin. How do you think Newman will fare at the State level?
COALITION 55
ALP 45
Status quo really – nothing for Gillardites here to be getting excited about.
If Labor’s still stuck on a primary vote of 30 or less in mid-August……..the leadership thing is on again.
I certainly came away thinking the whole project was a waste of money if you have to report to an ignoramus like Newman. But Quick is as thick as a cedar log!!
Newman may be a lousy leader however he took a dis-organised rabble and in 12 months united them sufficiently to win government with one of the largest majorities in Australian election history. Not too bad for someone who can’t lead 🙂
[Now all the Coalition need to do is let the public know where Australia is heading….as long as it is away from Gillard, very few will care!]
More of the tosser routine
“he seemed to me very unrelaxed at discussing issues with professionals (maybe ignorant) a bit pompous and self important without the intellect to go with it.”
Lacks self confidence, afraid of people who may actually be “smarter” than him.
Mod Lib can be a prat. But nothing he is suggesting tonight is too “pratty”.
[If Labor’s still stuck on a primary vote of 30 or less in mid-August……..the leadership thing is on again.]
I thought the leadership thing is on right now?
[If Labor’s still stuck on a primary vote of 30 or less in mid-August……..the leadership thing is on again.]
Yeah, so how about you STFU about that subject until August
[Thats how politics works and its our turn now to take Australia in whatever direction we want at the State and Federal levels.]
Well, actually Fraser had 8 years where he didn’t really do anything. He didn’t take the country in any direction at all, he just let it drift.
Oh, he kept nearly all of Whitlam’s reforms, but Coalition supporters never mention that because it would involve admitting that nearly everything the Whitlam government did was good and in many respects long over due.
Swamprat, you mean Quirk?
[ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 11:15 pm | Permalink
I picked the Vic, NSW, Qld and last Federal elections pretty much on the dot
You seriously picked the Coalition winning in Victoria with a 1 seat majority? Can you provide some proof of this claim?
And same goes for the federal parliament. You seriously picked a hung parliament with a Labor minority government? Evidence?]
Vic:
When the polls were showing an ALP win I posted that I thought the Libs could actually just scrape home (as happened)
Fed:
I predicted 73-73-4, so not exactly what happened but pretty close.
[Newman may be a lousy leader however he took a dis-organised rabble and in 12 months united them sufficiently to win government with one of the largest majorities in Australian election history. Not too bad for someone who can’t lead]
Lousy leaders are soon found out and found wanting. Enjoy.
Lynchpin
I am stunned by Newmans rise. But I cannot understand what is happening to our country in terms of seething irrational anger/fear. I think the ALP is very disappointing but it seems in reaction people choose really inadequate leaders.
I think the Libs are being voted in as a protest. Sort of a Holding operation.
It is up to the ALP to come back with a strong principled vision for Australia. I must admit I doubt they are capable of it, having gone over to the dark side, with “nice” paint.
You were asked for evidence not made up stuff
Lynchpin
yes Quirk
swamprat
What do you mean by
“nice” paint?
Nothing for morons like evan to get excited about either.
[Tom Hawkins
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 11:22 pm | Permalink
You were asked for evidence not made up stuff]
I don’t store my posts but they will be in the PB record if you want to check the veracity of what I am saying.
I don’t doubt anything I say as I know myself.
If you doubt me, check away!
david
I did not say he was a lousy ‘leader”, whatever that is. I am sure the LNP swallowed their pride for once…
I know he was an officer in the Army but he acted more like a sergeant. If you know what I mean. Bluster!!!
[Vic:
When the polls were showing an ALP win I posted that I thought the Libs could actually just scrape home (as happened)]
Link?
But saying they COULD just scrap home isn’t actually a prediction, it sounds more like speculation.
[I predicted 73-73-4, so not exactly what happened but pretty close.]
LINK!?
And of course you didn’t seem to actually predict that Labor would form a minority government, which is the more crucial element of picking the last election.
[having gone over to the dark side, with “nice” paint.]
Swamprat, how so?
I have faith in people like Combet, Plibersek, Albanese, Roxon, Clare, Leigh – they are the future. I think they are principled people who know how to argue a case and take on the Tories. I particularly like Combet. I sense he is very genuine and has a true dislike for BS.
Don’t tell me ML is still predicting the next election using polls of today, as it were. Gawd.
[I don’t store my posts but they will be in the PB record if you want to check the veracity of what I am saying.]
You’ve made the big claim, the burden of proof is on you to back it up with some evidence rather than just expecting us to take your word for it.
[Don’t tell me ML is still predicting the next election using polls of today]
Well… how else do you predict the results of the next election?
Tom
By nice paint, I mean the ALP has gone over to the dark side (i.e. worship holy mother the market” – which is another way of saying the financiers determine our future) but they paint it with a more liberal veneer of being sort of tolerant (“paint”)
[Don’t tell me ML is still predicting the next election using polls of today, as it were. Gawd.]
Gary
Not just the next one but also the one after that and the one after that as well. His ability to read the future is astonishing.
Gary,
He never learns anything. That’s why he’s a Lib.
BTW Insiders reported this morning that Rudd is a reluctant bride for the Leadership. So he won’t challenge and the Party won’t vote for him if he did.
Now if only some of the thickheads on PB who claim to support Labor would realise the dream is dead and get behind the Party and Leadership then life would improve significantly.