I’m a day behind schedule with Seat of the Week, owing to the extra work required to give due attention to the seat which matters more than any other. I speak of course of Lindsay, the western Sydney electorate which first emerged as a favoured barometer of national opinion after Labor’s surprise defeat off a double-digit swing in 1996. Its place in electoral folklore was cemented by the 2010 election, when Labor’s apparent obsession with it caused the party’s then national secretary, Karl Bitar, to demand that every proposed policy pass a “Lindsay test”. This was seen to have inspired the shift in prime ministerial rhetoric from Kevin Rudd’s “big Australia” to Julia Gillard’s “sustainable Australia”, and a tougher line on asylum seekers which was signalled in the first days of Gillard’s prime ministership through a photo opportunity with member David Bradbury aboard a warship off Darwin.
Lindsay is based around Penrith 50 kilometres to the west of central Sydney, from which it extends into conservative semi-rural territory to the north (Castlereagh and Llandilo) and south (Mulgoa and Orchard Hills). Labor had a 12.3% notional margin when the seat was created at the 1984 election, and its inaugural member Ross Free held it for margins of around 10% throughout the Hawke-Keating years, having previously been member for Macquarie from 1980. Free was most unpleasantly surprised to find himself turfed out by an 11.9% swing to Liberal candidate Jackie Kelly at the 1996 election, but was able to secure a re-match because Kelly, who had not expected to win, had failed to get her affairs in order before nominating (she was still serving as an RAAF officer, an “office for profit under the Crown”). Voters dragged back to the polls on a technicality rewarded Free with a further 6.8% drop in the primary vote, translating into a further 5.0% swing to the Liberals on two-party preferred.
The combined 16.9% swing to the Liberals meant the electorate’s demographic profile came to be seen as typifying John Howard’s constituency: high numbers of skilled workers on good incomes, low levels of tertiary education and a distinctly less multicultural flavour than suburbs closer to the city. This view was solidified by Kelly’s persistent electoral success despite the area remaining loyal to Labor at state level. The swing to Labor in 1998 was just 0.3% compared with the 1996 election result, producing one of a number of decisive marginal seat outcomes which secured the return of the Howard government from a minority of the two-party vote. This confirmed Kelly’s status as a prime ministerial favourite, helping her win promotion for a time to a junior ministerial position thought by many to have been beyond her competence. Kelly nonetheless continued to perform well electorally, picking up a 2.4% swing in 2001 and nearly holding even in 2004. To John Howard’s dismay, Kelly opted to retire at the 2007 election, at which the seat was further endangered by a redistribution which cut the Liberal margin from 5.3% to 2.9%. Any remaining Liberal hopes, both for Lindsay and the election as a whole, were demolished in the final days of the campaign when the husbands of Kelly and her successor candidate Karen Chijoff were among those caught distributing pamphlets purporting to be from Muslim extremists, in which Labor was praised for its support of the “unjustly” treated Bali bombers.
There followed a resounding 9.7% swing to Labor candidate David Bradbury, a Blake Dawson Waldron lawyer and former Penrith mayor who had run unsuccessfully in 2001 and 2004. There were reports in 2009, denied by Bradbury, that he was not of a mind to run in Lindsay for a fourth time, as he was concerned at the impact of the state government’s unpopularity and hopeful the departure of Roger Price might provide a safer berth for him in Chifley. Labor’s concerns were powerfully reinforced by a devastating 25.7% swing in a by-election for the state seat of Penrith on 19 June 2010, which preceded Kevin Rudd’s demise as Prime Minister by five days. The interruption of the by-election resulted in what seemed an inordinately long delay in the Liberals choosing a candidate, before marketing executive Fiona Scott was finally given the nod less than a week before the election date was announced. In the event the Liberals picked up a swing of 5.2% which only slightly exceeded the 4.8% statewide swing, falling 1.1% short of what was required. The post-election review conducted for the Liberal Party by Peter Reith identified the delay as a failing of the party’s campaign, and recommended the party’s federal executive be given a “last resort” power to ensure the selection of candidates for important seats in good time.
David Bradbury has twice won promotion since his re-election, first to parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer immediately after the election, and then to Assistant Treasurer and Minister Assisting for Deregulation in March 2012 after Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge. The latter promotion was achieved at the expense of NSW Right colleague Robert McClelland, who was dumped from the ministry after publicly backing Rudd. Bradbury will again be opposed at the next election by Fiona Scott, who won a March 2012 preselection vote against Hills Shire councillor Robyn Preston by 62 votes to 42. It had been reported the previous September that Tony Abbott had approached Jackie Kelly with a view to making a comeback, but she was unequivocal in professing herself uninterested.
rummel & Dan
No, outside of election campaigns, voters don’t care much, basically because they’re not paying attention.
When they do pay attention, during campaigns, these things count.
So something which we see as ‘bad for the Libs’ may not impact now, because people simply haven’t registered it; but brought back to their minds during an election campaign, may change their votes.
This is why so much campaigning is about repeating things you’ve said already.
vic
Surely you mean “won’t be IGNOARED” don’t you? 😉
z
Fair call.
Victoria
You are overegging the Ashby stuff. Sure there has been a mild plus for Labor and Brough has lost much face, but you seem to think it a game changer – it is not.
DG
Yes indeed. 😀
Black Caviar would have won by a lot more but she had eaten some carbon tax and it slowed her right down.
She is is lucky that she is still alive.
dtt
Not a game changer at all at the minute
News poll
Primary: ALP 30, LNP 46, GRN 12, Other 12
TPP: LNP 55, ALP 45
Gillard: satisfied 30, unsatisfied 59
Abbott: satisfied 31, unsatisfied 58
PPM: Abbott 38, Gillard 39
June 22-24 1146 sample size
Thanks James J
Seems Troy Bramston has been ditched by News Ltd on Newspoll (don’t blame them)
WOW James J, you beat Ghost again!
Thanks, I was waiting up for that..
Primary of around 30% for Labor and 46% for Coalition seems to be the sticky position. It varies for there up and down depending on short-term issues but keeps coming back to those two numbers.
Is James the new Ghost? 🙂
Looks like it was a bad week for the ALP, based on the poll….everything headed south for Gillard and the ALP.
Yes, yes, within margin of error, but I hope this puts an end to the claims of a recent recovery, that was never there…
OK so now the goals are
June 2013 election : Labor must gain 0.42% per month, September election 0.33% per month
[OK so now the goals are
June 2013 election : Labor must gain 0.42% per month, September election 0.33% per month]
What a bizarre way of looking at the polls
[Looks like it was a bad week for the ALP, based on the poll….everything headed south for Gillard and the ALP.]
oh but mod lib, im going to claim that its the one day old trend away from Labor that is the clincher.
Mod Lib,
MOE says this poll the same as previous result. It’s neither good nor bad for anyone.
Thanks James J
daretotread @ 1064
It just doesn’t happen that way.
There needs to be some event that is a game-changer.
So much for the confident poster who predicted 60:40 2PP given events of the last week.
So much for the confident poster who predicted 60:40 2PP given events of the last week.
GG
According to Mod Lib, these polls mean JG should hand Abbott the keys to the lodge tomorrow morning
Still, it looks like the ALP is happy for the ship to go down with the captain so this poll probably aint gonna mean the end of Gillard this week, the last week for me to win my bet with rua.
It needed to be much, much worse that just the standard catastrophic result for the ALP to learn what the view is out there in the non-PB world, so she gets a little more time to do more damage!
Remember my new ciggy slogan for the ALP under Gillard:
“every day is doing you damage”
Bemused game changer? Anything specific in mind that doesn’t begin with R?
[So much for the confident poster who predicted 60:40 2PP given events of the last week.]
Did they mention what had happened during the week to make such a prediction likely?
Looks about right. Nothing week, Libs didn’t stick their foot in their mouths this week, didn’t get a massive anti-ALP meme going. There really wasn’t a reason for anyone to change their minds this week. I can see why the Coalition would be happy with it.
Mod Lib
Last time I checked Labor were in govt.
Night all
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 10:52 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib,
MOE says this poll the same as previous result. It’s neither good nor bad for anyone.]
Um….no, actually, its bloody good for us! 🙂
You seem to have forgotten where the baseline is sitting at the moment! 100-50 aint nothing to be sneezed at! LOL 😉
Bemused
Yes sometimes but at the moment the hacks argue that slow and steady will turn the boat around so I am giving the average gain needed.
Like you I think a game changer is needed if Labor is the have a hope but I do not see it happening
Perhaps the Coalition 44% last Newspoll was due to the long weekend effect as it always looked a little light based on pretty well all the other polls for some time.
[this poll probably aint gonna mean the end of Gillard this week, the last week for me to win my bet with rua.]
Ruawake has got you beat in so many ways.
Mod Lib,
The only damage done so far is to your pocket.
How much does it hurt to be such a poor judge, again?
On this endless bad “boat people” issue both the Greens and the Libs actually have similar policies. The Greens we do not discourage boat trips and deal with people when they arrive. Given that everyone, more or less, is a “refugee” under UN definitions it means anyone who can get here stay here.
The Liberal Party as a similar policy except that those who arrive have to spend an indeterminate time in Nauru before they get to Australia. That is to ensure they are appropriately traumatised, I assume.
As one who has voted Green for the last 10 years, I am really pissed off at the Greens stubbornness on this and there alliance with the Libs.
I think the Greens should allow the “malaysian” policy for a period of one year.
TH Boats
[victoria
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 10:55 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib
Last time I checked Labor were in govt.
Night all]
Not for much longer
And not again for a much longer time
No one foresaw Tampa, either.
That’s the thing about game changers – they can come out of nowhere.
Thanks James J
Rossmore @ 1074
Nothing specific, just a general observation.
Business as usual does not seem to be getting the required result. I keep reading about this ‘MOAR’, maybe that will.
[Tom Hawkins
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink
this poll probably aint gonna mean the end of Gillard this week, the last week for me to win my bet with rua.
Ruawake has got you beat in so many ways.
1082
Greensborough Growler
Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib,
The only damage done so far is to your pocket.
How much does it hurt to be such a poor judge, again?]
I am happy to pay $100 to the Leukaemia foundation if it means Liberal rule for as long as Gillard has gifted us, not to mention State governments in Qld and NSW for ages as well as a bonus!
You may be right that Gillard survives.
That doesn’t mean it was the right decision as you will soon learn (and regret ++)
Don’t blame me when we still have a Liberal government in 2018 and you are all complaining and thrashing around madly: its you who are to blame for thinking you were smarter than the electorate!
My Mum picked this as soon as she saw Black Caviar coming back down the track after the race. “That horse is lame”, she said.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/black-caviar-tears-two-muscles-in-diamond-jubilee-stakes-win-at-royal-ascot/story-e6freuyi-1226406961550
(This explains why BC dropped her pace as soon as Nolan stopped ‘riding’ her , instead of continuing at top speed.)
If she had been uninjured who knows how far she would have been in front on the line.
– media companies imploding
So what? More of an industry issue than a political one
– #cashForYou hitting bank accounts of 2m families
Could be interpreted as bribes. The use of the word “cash” is bad in so many ways. Reeks of desperation and assumptions about the electorate
– Kathy Jackson credibility problems taking heat of Thomson (thomson who?)
Anyone who thinks this is good news for the ALP is seriously deluded. This monster (Jackson) has caused a massive amount of damage to the reputation of unions. As for Thomson’s stuff personally, it probably won’t be resolved during this term and he’ll likely lose his preselection. Damage control is the way I’d describe this.
– AshbyGate dribbling out more (moar in fact)
Major negative for the Coalition (if they’re behind it) more than a positive for the ALP
– Abbott once again demostrating how unfit he is to lead our nation
Gillard’s overshadowing him and not exploitining his weaknesses
– State LNP governments systematically alienating groups of voters
VIC: Yes (won’t matter federally), NSW: not going to matter while Robertson is ALP leader, QLD: Newman’s still in his honeymoon period and will be for sometime
[TH Boats]
Seriously? I think the boats issue will become a negative for Abbott rather quickly if Labor hammer home the message that he and Morrison are ecstatic every time they see a boat in distress. It’s not subtle but sometimes you need a sledgehammer to make a point.
Zoomster
There is a skill in actually controlling game changers to get the outcome you want. Not always easy.
[Don’t blame me when we still have a Liberal government in 2018 and you are all complaining and thrashing around madly: its you who are to blame for thinking you were smarter than the electorate!]
You really do act like a tosser at times. Are you new to commenting on politics?
Mod Lib,
Displaying more bad judgements I see.
Your predictive powers have proven to be most untrustworthy. When waffle turns to wager you are the house dud!
[This might have a good efect of keeping down the birthrate…I remember when silly Costello urged all parents to have at least 3 kids]
I don’t understand why the number of children someone has should have anything to do with the government.
Listening to politicians tell people how much they should reproduce is vomit inducing.
Mod Lib
I am shocked to think that you actually believe that Newman is the best state leader that Qld could have. I briefed him occasionally on town planning issues when he was Lord Mayor. I was shocked at his total disinterest in almost anything!!
@spur/1091
$250 vs $900 GFC – big difference.
How much did Howard give to voters when GST was introduced?
Swamprat, interesting. Was he interested in anything?
@Mod Lib
Licenses in QLD is going up $30 bucks.
And you say Newman is best leader, he’s a clone of Abbott!