Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.

UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

Matters federal:

• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.

• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.

Matters state:

• Kristina Keneally will quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia, thereby initiating a by-election for her inner southern Sydney seat of Heffron, where her margin was cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at the March 2011 election. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Keneally’s favoured successor is “Michael Comninos, a former Labor government staffer”, but that party sources have also mentioned Ron Hoenig, a barrister and the mayor of Botany since 1981, and another Botany councillor, Stan Kondilios. The report also quotes Keneally saying she would “never say never” to a return to politics, but she rules out doing so at the next federal election.

Alex Cauchi of the Wentworth Courier reports the Greens have preselected Sydney councillor Chris Harris as their candidate for the state by-election which is expected to be required in the seat of Sydney as a result of a looming legislative ban on members of parliament serving in local government. The present member for the seat is independent Clover Moore, who will seek another term as Sydney’s lord mayor in September. A looming Liberal preselection will be contested by finance broker Adrian Bartels, who fell 3.1% short of victory as the candidate at the last election, and Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard, who ran in 2003.

• Sixteen candidates have nominated for the July 21 by-election for the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, which is being followed at this dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9,415 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

  1. [uff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 1:05 am | Permalink

    Shows,
    So you think Abbott won’t start to dismantle the PBS and Medicare, bring back a form of workchoices, put a lifetime cap on Centrelink benefits, undo environmental protections, undo the maritime national parks, introduce regressive taxation measures, increase defence spending, reopen Nauru, cut program funding to the states, increase the cost of tertiary education and start to restrict access for lower class applicants, increase homeland security-type laws, allow mining in conservation areas, defund infrastructure programs and find us another war to fight in? ]

    [Excellent post puff, pretty much nails everything that an Abbott government would do, are you sure you’re not Tony Abbotts personal assistant?]

    I would personally assist him to exile on Nauru.

  2. Gusface has informed me that his sources tell him that Black Caviar will be retiring from racing and will be Labor’s candidate for Bennelong.

  3. [I would personally assist him to exile on Nauru.]
    Abbott has to be beaten at the ballot box. At the moment Labor is in no position to achieve that goal.

  4. Showson,
    Abbott won’t be beaten at the ballott box. The forces against us are too strong, have too many resources and control all the media feeding lies to a brainwashed population.

  5. [ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 2:10 am | Permalink

    Gusface has informed me that his sources tell him that Black Caviar will be retiring from racing and will be Labor’s candidate for Bennelong.]

    Is this straight from the horse’s mouth.?

  6. [Showson,
    Abbott won’t be beaten at the ballott box. The forces against us are too strong, have too many resources and control all the media feeding lies to a brainwashed population.]
    This sounds like quitting.

    We won in 2007 comfortably. We won in 2010 just. It IS possible.

  7. Horses for courses hey, Black caviar does have a track record for winning, it will be a close race, I predict a photo finish and a win by a nose.

  8. ShowsOn, on the discussion of a merger of between SBS and ABC you suggested on the other thread, it makes sense to have both sharing facilities in a digital world, if they could digitize all the massive back catalogue of films, documentaries and shows it would be great to see some of the old shows that are now just gathering dust in a warehouse.

    They would need a lot of extra funding, maybe they could offer a subscription to pay for it.

  9. [ShowsOn

    Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 2:25 am | Permalink

    We won in 2007 comfortably. We won in 2010 just. It IS possible.
    ]

    Not looking good though, I’m all for It IS possible.

  10. Think the NBN, the new tax threshold $18,200 on i july,and besides compo paid and to be paid , there will be over a million who no longer have to file a tax return.

    Cannot see abbott winning if campaigns on destroying or reversing the above.

  11. [They would need a lot of extra funding, maybe they could offer a subscription to pay for it.]
    Well I would be proposing that they be merged in order to save a bunch of money on administrative costs, which they would then keep and spend on things perhaps like archive content or whatever.

  12. Schnappi – Yes Tone does have a problem on how he could implement his policies but at this stage the voters are not looking at that and even when they do, at best it may only turn a massive landslide into a solid win.

    This is why I don’t see the Liberals winning more than 90 seats

  13. This poll will give heart to the fools/talentless ministerial wannabes in Caucus who are pushing to bring back Rudd.. Or the group (which conceivably has only one member) clamouring to install Crean “to save the furniture”.

    The only rational change would be for Gillard to step down for health or personal reasons in favour of Shorten or Combet. If Rudd were to come back, the parliamentary party would be in turmoil. Yes, there would be a bounce in the polls for a bit, but it’s difficult to see how this could be sustained.

    Unless perhaps Rudd were prepared to do what Abbott has done and turn himself into a puppet, installing a really strong Chief of Staff who he allows to call the shots.on what he says publicly on every subject, how he spends every minute of his time, who he sees about what issue, etc. I don’t think Rudd is up to this: he could keep it up for a few weeks, but it would go against his intrinsic (and wildly incorrect) world view that he knows better than everyone else about every conceivable matter.

    You would never believe it but Abbott, goose though is and has always been, has shown that he is actually cleverer than Rudd in one key respect: he knows not to trust his own judgement and to let others who have better judgement guide his every move. After 2007 – aided and abetted by a mindlessly adoring element of the ALP – Rudd came to the conclusion that the only reason Labor was in government was because of Rudd’s own wonderfulness. This had happened before with Hawke, but Hawke – even when completely pissed – had an IQ twice that of Rudd on a good day. After the shock of the 1984 election, he started taking advice from people like Richo who knew how to win the political argument.

    I’m starting to fear that, in about August, Caucus members will panic and reinstall Rudd. Then we all will be faced withe the choice of the two most incompetent and substance-free potential Prime Ministers in Australian history. Due to some very negative direct experiences I had with the man years back , I cannot vote for Abbott under any circumstances, and I would have to hols my nose and vote for Rudd.

    Goodness knows, I might be wrong and Rudd might even win. Queenslanders are unbelievably parochial and Labor could win some seats there. But if Rudd were to lead Labor to victory again, that might even be worse than losing. I know enough people who have worked closely with Kevin in Qld and Csnberra to be convinced that he is just about impossible to work for. If he wins again, they can’t depose him again. The good people in the Caucus will resign in droves. Likewise from the top of the public service where many chiefs – who were always steadfastly neutral under every previous PM – were openly hostile. I mean the bloke brought in his own hand-picked head of the public service – a nasty lightweight named Terry Moran – and within 12 months he and Rudd had reached the point of not talking to each other! Rudd is unique and I don’t believe he is capable of chsnging. A second Rudd victory might do more lasting damage to the ALP cause than keeping Julia and losing to Abbott.

    And yet a victory to Abbott would be a triumph for the evil far right forces who have seized control of the Libs. And for the most artificial, manufsctured style of political leader in our history It could be a bad time ahead for those who want Australia to be governed by competent, intelligent, moderate politicians.

    Sigh

  14. I should add to my last positing and say that Abbott’s policy positions are also largely an anathema to me and that, despite him possessing a B Ec from a good uni, the guy is clueless about economic and fiscal policy. So it’s all bad.

  15. Honestly the newspoll is not a good sign for newsltd /abbott coalition

    it should have been 59-41

    the way the news ltd federal opposition threw everything a the government

    Opposition leader murdoch will not be too happy wiht a lousy 1 % rise in all the propaganda

  16. Maguire Bob. Spot on! I for one won’t take the Coalition’s chances seriously until their TPP tops 70%

    (Seriously, can I please have some of what you are smokin’).

  17. Lol lyne Lady @ 23

    I agree with you , the steve lewis article is a bigger story then any i have read since 2010

  18. [Honestly the newspoll is not a good sign for newsltd /abbott coalition it should have been 59-41]

    Well, beat me over the head with big fat pillows of dumb, for days, with the “It’s Time” sound from 72 going flat-chat and ply me full of free grog, then give me 100 bucks to say anything, what you said Bob, is what I’d say.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    After yesterday’s maudlin contemplation of Abbott I wake up to this NewsPoll and wonder how it is that 55% of respondents can even contemplate an Abbott government. It is completely beyond me.
    And then I turn on the TV and see the porcine Gina.. I’m beginning to understand.
    Mischa Schubert give the Noa Constrictor a run,
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/if-the-political-hyperbole-doesnt-get-them-the-reality-check-will-20120623-20vb5.html
    Ron Tandberg absolutely nails the creeps Abbott and Morrison.
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe with Black Caviar and its jockey.
    http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  20. Maguire Bob. No, the election is not now. So Labor could possibly come back. But it will be an enormous struggle and might prove to be impossible.

    Its totally ok to be cautiously hopeful, but the polyannaish posts you and many others on here consistently deliver are reminiscent of Comical Ali at his very best.

  21. meher baba

    News ltd is keeping Abbott’s carbon tax out of the public spot light, once people see Abbott has lied its all over for news ltd man Abbott

  22. BK

    Great cartoons laughed at both,abbott and morrison is apt,but black caviar slurping champers and nolan up in hand luggage is classic .

  23. I dont know why those who support the coalition or do not like Gillard/labor expects those who support labor to be depressed over the newspoll

    Labor supporters and those who do not support the coalition or abbott

    have every right to be cheerful

    6 days left til july 1

  24. So, virtually unchanged, as I predicted last night.

    If deaths at sea, the “failed” Rio conference, “bragging” to Europe, and the Ruddiversary combined don’t lose votes for the government, this means that most of the punters coming back Labor’s way (admittedly after a long holiday) have stuck.

    There are still a lot of hardheads who’ll have to get used to the idea that this is a good government run foul of the failing Murdoch newspaper model, but we have a year to get them back.

    It’ll be a year when the voters finally get sick of Abbott’s miserably negative sound grabs and start asking what he’s actually going to do, when kickbacks to taxpayers become the norm, and when the concept of an Australia that sacks its workers instead of gainfully employing them is finally put to rest as a bad idea.

    The polls are becoming less volatile. The voters are becoming less easily led by the nose with the regulation scandals.

    The Ashby case is about to blow up. The HSU case is similarly pyrotechnic. While Europe squabbles, we get on with it. A nation can’t stay angry for three years. It has to snap out of its irritation for its own sake.

    Every point we make up is like Abbott losing two points. Doubt will begin to creep in. A lazy Opposition party fed the sugar hit of easy media and success in the polls will start jumping at shadows.

    It won’t be pretty, or easy but, regarding our own Red Caviar, a win’s still a win.

  25. Sums up pretty well where it is, BB.

    The biggest challenge is to shore up the demoralised supporters for a while longer. A good example is meher baba raising legitimate concerns. (I don’t include the Ruddistas because essentially restoration would be a gesture of surrender, even aside from the fact that it was unworkable in the past. )

    But it has been a long and ugly campaign of political nihilism with not much overt sign of it failing to date. That will change over the coming months as the fears and uncertainties are demolished.

    Still a long way to go yet, meher. Time enough to expose the hollowness of the opposition, and to build a narrative, as alluded to by Keating recently.

  26. Morning All

    55-45 same old same old – there needs to be movement, it doesn’t have to be this week or next but the ALP can’t wait forever either.

    Will be interesting once we hit Sunday – the carbon tax and mining tax will be real, the tax cuts and pension increases will be real – trying to take them away will be real. Abbott and Murdoch have failed to stop them becoming reality the question now becomes what has the impact really been and how much will it hurt to take them away???

    RN focussing on carbon tax all week, will be interesting to see how it unfolds

    Debate this week, well at least today and tomorrow, will be all about asylum seekers – what movement, if any, will there be???

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