Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.

UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

Matters federal:

• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.

• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.

Matters state:

• Kristina Keneally will quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia, thereby initiating a by-election for her inner southern Sydney seat of Heffron, where her margin was cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at the March 2011 election. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Keneally’s favoured successor is “Michael Comninos, a former Labor government staffer”, but that party sources have also mentioned Ron Hoenig, a barrister and the mayor of Botany since 1981, and another Botany councillor, Stan Kondilios. The report also quotes Keneally saying she would “never say never” to a return to politics, but she rules out doing so at the next federal election.

• Alex Cauchi of the Wentworth Courier reports the Greens have preselected Sydney councillor Chris Harris as their candidate for the state by-election which is expected to be required in the seat of Sydney as a result of a looming legislative ban on members of parliament serving in local government. The present member for the seat is independent Clover Moore, who will seek another term as Sydney’s lord mayor in September. A looming Liberal preselection will be contested by finance broker Adrian Bartels, who fell 3.1% short of victory as the candidate at the last election, and Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard, who ran in 2003.

• Sixteen candidates have nominated for the July 21 by-election for the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, which is being followed at this dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9,415 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 189
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  3. The finnigans @52 shows the reality of why the coalition is in front , its definitely not because of the coalition themselves

    and some people on here wonder why the government doesnt move

    Its down to the media , people need to continue to put the pressure on the media

  5. Nonsense on steroids indeed.

    [Textureclash ‏@textureclash
    Now we have Glenn Bartholomew telling us all to consult an accountant to prepare for carbon tax!! This is nonsense on steroids ABC NewsRadio]

  6. schnappi 29
    have been speaking to IA about this – hopefully they will do something as a counter to these nat cretins

  7. [Not sure if this is a BISON or not.

    AUSTRALIA’S big banks have been ranked the most profitable in the developed world for the second year running by the influential Bank for International Settlements.]

    poroti, i will consult the Order of the BISONs after a secret handshake

  8. Morning bludgers

    Hard copy of the Herald Sun has double pages spreads on how to beat the carbon tax. Does any one wonder why this govt lacks any support
    Also Andrew Bolt has a full page, half of which, is a picture of the PM facing off with Rob McClelland. I glanced at it. Has to do with speech he gave re unions and the old story re the PM being connected to someone who allegedly rorted a union.

  9. MB

    The only people the media seems to overlook is the social media, except for one article by Bolt critisising Dr Emerson using twitter and even showed a tiny selection of them.

    Would appear the coalition seems to discount the social media,as those few who venture into it get a drubbing.

    Another thing that comes across with social media , that when polls are mentioned ,appears the majority say they have never been polled,and they are all from a different parts of the country. of the country

  15. Burgey

    Was mentioned on SEN sports radio at 7 am. The usual spiel, govt loses support etc.

    When JG took over 2 years ago, the polls were 45/55 in favour of Labor. By the eve of the election, they were 50/50.
    The state Vic Polls were running at 48/52 in favour of Labor. By the eve of that election is was 50/50 as well.
    Of course, the Qld and NSW polls were bad for Labor for at least 2 years and they did not budge.
    Question is what scenario will play out in this case?

  16. Judi Moylan expertly trashed the Nauru solution on RN this morning. But her overall line was the same old bleeding heart fallacy that you can somehow prevent people from taking a potentially fatal sea voyage while leaving untouched a system which provides them with an overwhelming incentive to do so.

    And there was lots of talk, as there always is from the bleeding hearts, about big nasty mean old people smugglers.

    The true position of Moylan and many others of her ilk is “just let them keep coming in their hundreds of thousands, there’s plenty of room at the banquet.”. But she knows she can’t say this and is therefore fundamentally dishonest.

  18. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans
    Who would have thunk. #Newspoll was released one day early to set the scene for more PM bashing for the last week of Parliament #auspol

  19. Morning all.

    Steady goes, which is good. Also the Sunday Newspoll release means we haven’t had the usual anti-Labor mob to crow and bait people.

    🙂

  20. The finns

    How unsurprisement indeed. Bolt has set the tone with his article today. Reminding people that JG has enemies within her own party. Her leadership is to be questioned for the thousandth time.

  21. seriously mahar baba???

    [The true position of Moylan and many others of her ilk is “just let them keep coming in their hundreds of thousands, there’s plenty of room at the banquet.”. But she knows she can’t say this and is therefore fundamentally dishonest.]

    i think you mean hundreds and thousands – nothing like blowing the figures out many fold to try and make a point

  22. confessions

    I had a look at last night’s posts. Basically Labor is finished under JG and fhey will lose in a landslide, and will be out of power for years and years. Doomed I say doomed!!!

  23. I think now that we are getting to the realisation that gillard is finnished and Rudd the most probable replacement we will a ramping up of why Rudd shouldn’t be the replacement here, as we have seen this morning.

    The rational is total nonsense of course. Rudd stomped on Howard, and had labor on a recovery path until knifed, and certainly was never in the deep mire that gillard has put labor.

    It is most clear from polling, the opinion of the voting public’s intentions, that the only person they see fit to lead is Rudd and not some near invisible other alternative.

    Failure to make it Rudd may again play out as Rudd being back-stabbed by a fractionally corrupt Labor party, making him and Labor the victim once again.

    It would be extreme silliness to put in anybody but Rudd as we close in on an election year.

    However I know that many gillardists would prefer anybody else because a restoration of Rudd would be a huge slap in the face of gillard and be proof that she did wrong and was a terrible failure, however some other candidate who then failed to recover much would be used as some sort of proof that she should not have been replaced after all.

    I imagine the true believers of Labor whose most important and first goal is to keep Abbott out of govt would choose the candidate most likely by all the evidence to do that.

  24. I should add that the polls are reflective of one major thing. I honestly believe this. If JG were a male, Labor would be polling much much better.
    That is why I am inclined to feel that Labor are going to struggle in future. It is a crying shame because she has been a very effective leader, much better than the rest.

  25. Thinking like a Bogan
    There will be a certain degree of introspection today in Coalition ranks as the realization sinks in that Stop The Boats isn’t as potent a call to arms as it used to be.

    Nor is slagging off the Prime Minister for selling Australia’s economy to Europe.

    Two years of Ruddstoration, with failed but dire monthly predictions of imminent doom for Gillard at the hands of the Golden Boy, means the Kevin Komeback doesn’t quite have the bite it used to have.

    As the punters and the retailers get used to the idea of shopping again, blood oaths to take it all away will fall on increasingly deaf ears. The sleeper will be the increase in the tax free threshold. Every week there it will be: a pay rise.

    Processing asylum seekers in Malaysia won’t seem like such a bad idea, either. It’s preferable to blood on our hands, anyway. Voters will want to know why Abbott, whom they’ve been told they’re going to elect anyway, won’t give in on this one. If it doesn’t work, then what’s new about that? Give it a go,Tony. It’s worth a try.

    The Carbon Tax? Hey, we switched off a few lights and kept the compensation. Win-win.

    El Nino’s coming. It can’t rain forever. Expect the farmers to start whingeing about needing just an inch or two at the right time to set their crops up… and then not getting it. Maybe there’s something to this Global Warming thing after all.

    Ashby. He’s going down. So is Steve Lewis. And so is News Ltd, both in the UK and eventually here. People like to believe in a Monster, and Rupert fits the bill. Joe and Jenny might not like Gillard, but they’ll baulk at the malignant old has-been’s perfidy in trying to stitch her up. A lot of it will stick to the Coalition, too. Popcorn time.

    Gina Rinehart… not our kind of gal. The Mother From Hell . It’s not quite PC to say it, but she’s a fat, greasy-haired template for everything that’s gross about our “heroic” mining billionaires and their distorted family values.

    We like the Mining Tax. Twiggy’s trying to stop it, is he? So Gina bought Fairfax, did she? So she’s turning their papers into shit-sheets, is she? We’ll just follow along like sheep, will we? And Palmer… where do we start? And why is he rebuilding the Titanic? It sank, didn’t it? A hundred years ago? Wouldn’t catch me near the bloody thing. Won’t sink this time. That’s what they said about the first one, right?

    HSU: about the time that they can’t find anything to charge Craig Thomson with, it’ll start to become obvious that Kathy Jackson is the real Lucretia Borgia (if it hasn’t already). And didn’t Thommo single-handedly stop those ridiculous SSOs stone cold dead?

    As the world gets back to normal they’ll start to realize we’re not so badly governed after all.

  26. victoria:

    I rarely if ever visit the graveyard shift. It’s too full of creepy, ghouls all attacking one another.

  27. BB

    I was told by dtt last night wtte, that I am overegging the Ashby matter as being a game changer. It will not be according to the wise dtt. There you have it.

  28. [schnappi 29
    have been speaking to IA about this – hopefully they will do something as a counter to these nat cretins]

    It gets up my nose that the ABC has become the publicity machine for these creeps…an article about a fund seeking site, with link, ffs to get rid of a sitting member.

    And who could forget the Mal Brough pre selection puff piece that Chris Uhlmann ran on 7.30?

  30. @lyndalcurtis: The Treasurer says the story snacks for school kids visiting Parlt have been cut is completely wrong.

    @stephenjonesALP: The story by Steve Lewis in today’s Daily Telegraph, Herald Sun, Adelaide Advertiser and Courier Mail claiming… http://t.co/iF1Bpmzl

  31. The Greens are at it again, they can solve the AS problem by being adult and showing they can govern, by having to compromise to govern for all Australians.
    For dogs sake pass the Malaysian Bill.

  32. [I had a look at last night’s posts. Basically Labor is finished under JG and fhey will lose in a landslide, and will be out of power for years and years. Doomed I say doomed!!!]

    She has had her best patches in a long while, a budget and still she is nowhere.

    I don’t imagine it is going to get better for Labor from here. And those pining their hopes that an entitled Australia getting further gifts from govt is going to change that are deluded.

    We are used to being the lucky country now. Rudd Labor got lots of credit for economic management because Australians dimly perceived he saved their arses from something.

  35. [I was told by dtt last night wtte, that I am overegging the Ashby matter as being a game changer. It will not be according to the wise dtt. There you have it.]

    The only overegging was DTT wildly inflating Rudd’s support within Caucus. Also have recollections of predictions by DTT that Rudd would be leading labor again by now.

    There you have it.

  36. Good Morning Bludgers!

    rummel
    Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 8:20 pm | Permalink

    Im praying for a newspoll snap back to the Libs tonight.

    60-40 its been a shocking week for the Government.

    ROFLMAO. 😀

    Such a loyal but delusional Coalition camp follower is rummel.

    If that is what ‘a shocking week’ has done for the government’s poll numbers, imagine what will happen to the Coalition numbers when the Ashby Dam breaks. Maybe nothing, maybe 60-4- the other way. 😉

    Though I will admit, that with the likes of Chris Uhlmann and Marius Benson propagating the meme, already, courtesy of Newspoll’s Martin O’Shanessy(without a hint of irony), that the electors have just stopped listening to the PM and they are already waiting on their verandahs with their baseball bats, is it any wonder that such full-spectrum dominant media messaging is holding back the government’s poll numbers?

    Not to mention the absolute bastardry of the Coalition, whose Orwellian argument against co-operating with the government on asylum seeker policy, that is, because they have characterised it as ‘bad policy’ they are unwilling to do anything about it, just makes me wish I believed in the power of prayer when it comes to Tony Abbott’s health. I believe in karma though, and I am waiting on my verandah for it to pay a visit to Mr Abbott. 🙂

  38. victoria

    It is top at the online site. So I assume it probably is the front page of the hard copy, but I have not seen it. I don’t buy the piece of crap.
    This is Steve Lewis again and I think not doing media any favours in avoiding the resolve for regulating the media so it has to tell the truth.

  39. confessions

    Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 8:17 am | Permalink

    victoria:

    I rarely if ever visit the graveyard shift. It’s too full of creepy, ghouls all attacking one another.

    Most of whom vote for the ALP, but you rarely visit there, so what would you know.
    Just a tad precious.

  40. [poroti, i will consult the Order of the BISONs after a secret handshake]

    What? Yet another visit to the toilet?

  41. guytaur

    steve Lewis? Wtf is wrong with this idiot. Is it an attempt By him to show the govt, that he is all powerful and he is not intimated by a teensy weensy subpoena?

  45. [What? Yet another visit to the toilet?]

    yes indeed, to shit and piss on you painful pavlovian doggy which i do all the time. thanks for asking

  46. TP

    You should be thrilled to bits. Your man Abbott and his team are going to win the next election in a landslide. Be happy, Embrace it

  48. The finns

    The pavlovian dogs bark and bark. What more do they want. The polls are wonderful for them, and yet they keep barking!

  49. What a surprise! Steve Lewis sending his journalistic credibility further down the plughole by conspiring with Joe Hockey to fit up the Treasurer with a pack of lies about Bottled Water and fruit snacks being taken away from angelic-faced school kids.

  50. c@tmomma

    What I fail to understand is that the coalition are so far in front with the polls. Why do they continually engage in dirty tricks.

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