Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.

UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

Matters federal:

• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.

• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.

Matters state:

• Kristina Keneally will quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia, thereby initiating a by-election for her inner southern Sydney seat of Heffron, where her margin was cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at the March 2011 election. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Keneally’s favoured successor is “Michael Comninos, a former Labor government staffer”, but that party sources have also mentioned Ron Hoenig, a barrister and the mayor of Botany since 1981, and another Botany councillor, Stan Kondilios. The report also quotes Keneally saying she would “never say never” to a return to politics, but she rules out doing so at the next federal election.

Alex Cauchi of the Wentworth Courier reports the Greens have preselected Sydney councillor Chris Harris as their candidate for the state by-election which is expected to be required in the seat of Sydney as a result of a looming legislative ban on members of parliament serving in local government. The present member for the seat is independent Clover Moore, who will seek another term as Sydney’s lord mayor in September. A looming Liberal preselection will be contested by finance broker Adrian Bartels, who fell 3.1% short of victory as the candidate at the last election, and Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard, who ran in 2003.

• Sixteen candidates have nominated for the July 21 by-election for the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, which is being followed at this dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9,415 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. I attended our local ALP branch meeting last Wednesday and it was held in good spirits.But it was by consensus, that the shockjocks do more damage to the ALP than the rest of the MSM. The shockjocks go just about 24 hours a day. Those that don’t listen to Jones or Hadlie in the morning, go to bed with the night shift of shockjocks.Those that do listen to the morning shift, everything is confirmed by the night shift.

  2. The Greens won’t and shouldn’t vote for the “Malaysian Solution” if people get here, process them here. Heard SHY on News Radio this morning – work towards regional processing centres, increase refugee intake to 25000 – good moves I’d suggest

    If the major parties want off-shore processing, get together and work it out amongst themselves I say – I would hate to see the Greens lurch to the right on asylum seekers

  3. [JULIAN ASSANGE hopes his bid for political asylum at the Ecuadorean embassy in London will elicit diplomatic guarantees that he will not be prosecuted by the US on espionage and conspiracy charges.]

    Read more:

    Once he is granted asylum by Ecuador he is no longer Australia’s problem.

    I don’t think Assange is being advised very well.

  4. Did Steve Lewis ever think that the reason the bottled water and fruit snacks had disappeared was because JoeHo had scarfed them all? 😉

  5. womble:

    I agree. The Greens are irrelevent on issues of immigration, and it’s up to the parties of government to reach an agreement.

  6. Just saw Cantdo Newman standing in an (Oval) office with the Flag telling Qld’ers that the big bad ALP debt, has to be paid bla bla bla. Not mentioning the Flood the two devastating Cyclones and all the income lost because of the disasters.

  7. Muskiemp

    We have 3aw here in Melbourne, which is the closest thing to shockjock radio. But from what I have heard is totally lame compared to what people listen to in NSW

  8. Stop watches on to see how long the Terrorgraph takes to remove the “Exclusive” Steve Lewis story (and poll) from their web site.

  9. [”I have been attacked by the US, from the Vice-President down, as a high-tech terrorist, and by the Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister – surely that requires some direct response from the Gillard government.”]

    The man seems seriously deluded. Ecuador should do the right thing and grant him political asylum. It’s clear he is at risk of persecution by his home country because the Australian PM didn’t remonstrate with the US and Swedish governments for being mean to him.

    Seriously, just grant him asylum and then we can all move on.

  10. Good morning, Bludgers.

    4 Sitting Days left before Implementation Day, and, despite Shanner’s lies, Fairfax and NewsLtd’s worst, Julia Gillard is still Australia’s Preferred Prime Minister and Abbott’s still a stubborn, gutless apology for a real man.

    [Who would have thunk. #Newspoll was released one day early to set the scene for more PM bashing for the last week of Parliament #auspol]

    Ooo Finns, I luuuv a dolphin with such a cynical mind! 👿

    PS Banking results would look like a double BISON to me, but for the not-so-small rip-offs they call “bank fees”

  11. Another oily creature, Mitch Fifield, on Agenda defending Abbott’s AS stance. I’ve just about had enough and will go out and clean up horse poo.

  12. Confessions:

    Only reason the Greens are irrelevant on the issue is that the major parties only care about the politics of the problem, not the problem itself 🙁

    Shadow cabinet meets today – will be interesting to see if anyone steps up, seems a few will tomorrow when the party room meets. Are there any moderate Liberal senators left???

  13. confesssions

    I am no fan of Assange the man. I am a fan of him revealing war crimes. I do think that Australia should have done more. I am not talking about interfering in internal legal process. Of course Australia cannot do that. I just think Australia should be more proactive in seeking to protect its citizens to the maximum amount possible. Sometimes that means robust language and forgetting the niceties of diplomatic language.
    eg. Bob Carr could have been very firm to the public on Insiders saying Australia has no truck with the death penalty. This is a known fact. The US would be aware why Carr would say such a thing to the Australian public so it would not damage our relationship with the US.
    Doing that would not change the circumstances for Assange. It would however let the public know that the Government is serious about protecting its citizens.
    Not doing so just adds to the feeling that Australian Governments of both parties will sacrifice its citizens. A feeling that is there no matter what the reality really is.

  14. Unless there’s some special polls published at the end of the week, today’s Essential and the next Morgan should be the last polling published before July 1st.

    The ALP’s primary vote is around 30-31% and the Coalition’s primary vote is around 47-48%. That’s around 8-10% of the vote to be recovered from July 1st 2012 to October 2013. Keep in mind that it’s about saving seats in states like NSW and VIC whereas in order to win, there needs to be a massive recovery in support in QLD and WA.

    Again, I’d like someone on here to rationally explain to me how Gillard (not Newman) is meant to turn things around in Queensalnd in the next 15 months.

  15. Womble. It will only be thousands at first, but if all controls are taken off, where will it stop? The Indonesian fish stocks are depleted and there is lots of money to be made by fishernen from participating in people smuggling. And surely there is plenty of demand (eg, we might shortly start to see lots of Copts wanting to get out of that marvelous new “Arab spring” democracy in Egypt.)

    That’s the view of people in the Immigration Dept and, while they are far from perfect, they do have some expertise.

    All this stuff about “push factors” causing these people to want to come here reveals a basic misunderstanding. Most of these people are economic migrants fIrst and foremost. The economies of their home countries are stuffed. Sure, like the Copts will soon be facing in Egypt, they have experienced some discrimination at home: perhaps enough to be considered “persecution” under the UNHCR definition. But they haven’t exactly been “pushed” out of their countries. Most have made a rational choice to leave.

    The strength of thr in entive is such that the fact that more of them don’t arrive here than at present csn be put down to

    (a) cost (which will come down if and when the smugglers can get access to more and better boats)
    (b) the partial success of Austrslian and Indonesian authorities in clamping down on the trade (but this will never get close to 100%) and
    (c) the risk of the voyage, which deters those who are not sufficiently naive or single-mindex to discount the danger to themselves and their families).

  16. victoria@112,


    The DT wont care. The negative story is out. The damage has been done

    Yes, but the countervailing story is also out now about another Steve Lewis beat-up.

    It’s all adding up to paint a picture of the man.

  17. c@tmomma

    I do wonder if this is a shot across the bow by Lewis to the govt. Lay off, or I will write more crap?

  18. guytaur@111,
    Don’t forget the former gay Big Brother contestant who was a member of the National Party, whose name I can’t remember just now. Australian Story did a moving episode about him and his relationship with his dad after he came out on BB. I’m sure he’s not the only one in the country.

  19. Good morning all.
    I’m slowly thawing out as the sun’s rays are penetrating the thick fog.

    The AS debate in here has ranged from the sublime to the ridiculous and, it seems to me, there is a lot of factual stuff being shoved aside in order to “prove” one view or t’other as well as a lot of misunderstanding and ignorance regarding how easy (or not) it is to force our regional neighbours to co-operate to control the flow of the boats. There is, I think, almost total ignorance regarding the Bali Process out of which came the Malaysian solution, the agreement with Malaysia and the role of the UNHCR. The coalition and the greens have muddied the waters to such an extent it is no wonder we are where we are over this issue. There is also the over the top rhetoric about these poor people who risk their lives on boats fleeing cruelty and persecution – never mind the hundreds of thousands who’ve fled to camps and have been stuck there for years patiently waiting for a place somewhere, anywhere in the world.

    Why is it that people will stand up and fight for cash-strapped “new” refugees who are able to pay their way to their desired place of refuge, yet ignore and only offer passing compassionate words for those in makeshift camps dying of starvation and disease in their hundreds?

  20. [We have 3aw here in Melbourne, which is the closest thing to shockjock radio. But from what I have heard is totally lame compared to what people listen to in NSW]
    That is why there is a big difference in the polls, between NSW and Qld compared to Vic.

  21. Muskie

    You believe it is good to tear up the United Nations Refugee Convention?

    That is what the Greens would have to do to move to the right of their current position.
    The Malaysia solution has been welcomed by the UNHCR for improving life in Malaysia. Not for abiding by the treaty Australia has signed.

  22. Victoria at 72

    Yep pretty much sums up my view.
    Only difference is that I see a potential total demise of the ALP on the horizon. unless there is major change. Is that gloomy enough for you.

    Oh and regarding Ashby – have you NO understanding of real politics. Ashby is a smear/scandal. It will damage Abbott for sure but not in a major way. These things never do. It is the cut of tiny swords, and Ashby is just one. The only potential effect would be to force Abbott out of the Libs which would not be good for Labor.

    You berate me for predictions on caucus. Listen it is about FACTIONAL numbers. If there are big shifts in factional groupings then there are big shifts in caucus.

    When FACTIONAL blocks start breaking then you know that panic has taken hold. In February only a few unaligned, small sections of the NSW right and about half the left (AMWU) supported Rudd. None of the big blocks shifted. If either the AMWU mob or the United Voice mob shift then numbers will change.

    However the very fact that the factions split indicated serious realignment in caucus.

    There was a heck of a lot of pressure (recall that at least one CABINET member CRIED) when forced to choose.

    However when Gillard steps down it will be done nicely – her choice etc. The only question is will it be Rudd who replaces her or Shorten or Combet. My gut feeling is that the last two will not like to lead to a defeat, although Combet might be persuaded to do the noble thing. Shorten is too much of a show pony and in any case there is the GG thing.

  23. victoria@125,
    Write more crap from jail? 😀

    However, you may be right. Though, thank goodness for the internet who have destroyed the credibility of the story already via the government getting out the truth quickly, and Twitter launching into full-scale derision of Lewis. 🙂

  24. Muskiemp

    We had shockjock station for a while here. MTR with Steve Price and Andrew Bolt. Failed miserably. Barely got 8000 listeners.

  25. womble:

    The Greens are irrelevant because they don’t do pragmatism, and they don’t do compromise. We’ve seen it time and time before, and not just on AS but on other issues as well.

  26. Anyone confirm this


    According to Faine there is an inside rumour that Fairfax will surrender to Rinehart’s demands today.

  27. US Bible Bashing Brigade & Looney Right must be rejoicing because the election of Muslim Brotherhood’s President was a “Gift from God”

  28. catmomma

    Very good example. He had issues in coming out. Luckily he had the strength he did and has done well since. I am sure that was helped by the culture around him and the support of his family and friends.

    This is why even though the vote lost I am glad to see that it was so close. Not so very long ago I do not think this would have been allowed to come to a vote, let alone got this support.
    So credit to a lot of National Members there. Hopefully sometime soon the result will be different.

  29. [Muskie
    You believe it is good to tear up the United Nations Refugee Convention?]
    The ALP are suggesting nothing of the kind. In fact they are accepting refugees that land here. What the ALP want is to have an orderly Offshore processing and actually accepting extra refugees. So the ALP is sticking to the UNRC.

  30. nobody wants to see people drown, off-shoring our asylum seeker seekers won’t help with that – if they don’t drown coming here, they’ll risk their lives going somewhere else

    only way to genuinely fix the issue to work with others to form genuine, fast moving queues and take more than we do from then now

    it is so frustrating to hear state governments talking about not cutting front line staff when they sack thousands of public servants – unless you get rid of the back office work – i.e. take away the requirements for that work to be done – then there is obviously a flow on to front line services.

  31. schnappi. if they don’t she’ll go hostile on them, and they have nothing to combat that with. unlike most normal takeovers where the news usually sends a price up, i’m not sure the news of a Gina takeover will inspire the same result here. No one sees her as adding value to the share price. she’ll buy enough to ‘own’ it, and then chnage it into her image, and it will then surely tank.

  32. I have in the past voted Greens (2001). However the GREENS are wrong this time. They will continue to support an Abbott ascension.

  33. Oh and Victoria at 74

    I think you are wrong, wrong , wrong about Gillard and her gender. If Gillard were a man she would have been removed 12 months ago. It is only the fact that she IS a woman that is keeping her there.

  34. Short memories, gus told us internal polling


    Now gus is a very honourable man

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Soon our favourite company news ltd will be only on the computer
    How many will bother to bother to bother,
    It will be so nice to get the bill boards off the streets.
    And on to computer screens.

    Now thats social media, so e one should explain this to. Bolt
    They will all be bolted down behind the key board
    Screaming hammer and tongs
    Pkease click your mouse.

  35. Just heard that the Steve Lewis story this morning is baloney and the DT’s excuse is that they did say the story is unconfirmed. I see that Swannie was tweeting yesterday so they could have checked the story with him.

    Another reason to have new regulations that the retraction has to be given the same prominence in the paper the next day. I hope Conroy has the gumption to insist on it.

    Muskiemp – same reaction in our Branch. Members are inundated with comments from the locals which come directly from shockjocks networked here via Sydney radio or the DT. Locals freely admit to believing both – “if … and .. say it then it’s true”. It’s really hard to get past that.

    The reaction to the ads for the Home Assistance Package has been good so advertising properly does work to get information out.

  36. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans
    If The Opposition becomes the Govt, Joe Hockey will the kiddies water, fruit plus a big bucket of KFC now that #Chickengate for you

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