Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.

UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

Matters federal:

• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.

• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.

Matters state:

• Kristina Keneally will quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia, thereby initiating a by-election for her inner southern Sydney seat of Heffron, where her margin was cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at the March 2011 election. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Keneally’s favoured successor is “Michael Comninos, a former Labor government staffer”, but that party sources have also mentioned Ron Hoenig, a barrister and the mayor of Botany since 1981, and another Botany councillor, Stan Kondilios. The report also quotes Keneally saying she would “never say never” to a return to politics, but she rules out doing so at the next federal election.

• Alex Cauchi of the Wentworth Courier reports the Greens have preselected Sydney councillor Chris Harris as their candidate for the state by-election which is expected to be required in the seat of Sydney as a result of a looming legislative ban on members of parliament serving in local government. The present member for the seat is independent Clover Moore, who will seek another term as Sydney’s lord mayor in September. A looming Liberal preselection will be contested by finance broker Adrian Bartels, who fell 3.1% short of victory as the candidate at the last election, and Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard, who ran in 2003.

• Sixteen candidates have nominated for the July 21 by-election for the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, which is being followed at this dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9,415 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  5. my say. our youngest had colic for the first month which was hard. but he’s 6 months now and a big chubba that loves to sleep….

  7. my say,

    You said that your oh was in Australia Post back in 1963.

    My response was – not possible. Back then, postal and telecommunication services were both covered by the Post-Master General’s Department (aka PMG’s), which first employed my oh in 1963, and then permanently in 1967. He remained with the organisation through its many transformations until his retirement in 1997, by which stage it had become Telstra.

    So, it was (trading names):

    PMG 1901-1975
    Telecom Australia 1975-1993
    Telstra 1993-present

    Incidentally, oh’s employment with the PMG was in Tassie from 1963/4-1973, then in Melbourne at HQ.

  10. That declaration of Abbott’s needs to be circulated far and wide. It is time to get bloody serious over this goon, and the shiily-shalleirs need to focus their minds of the reality of what will happen if the gets his hand on the keys to the Lodge.

  13. In 2001, 353 people drowned when the SIEV-X sank.

    A little known fact is that in the 2004 election, Labor had in its policy platform a promise to hold a royal commission on SIEV X. This policy was quietly dropped in the revisions Kim Beazley brought about after Labor’s electoral rout.

    The Greens pushed unsuccessfully for a Royal Commission into the tragedy when Howard was in power and again when Labor was elected.

    Why did both major political express no interest or refuse to take action to determine the facts about this tragic event?

  14. mm,

    [how boring… lol.]

    Indeed. When I posted, I thought about an analogy with pegging nappies on the line, but decided against …. however, you’ve nailed it!

    I hope that you are somewhere without too much frost in the air. Nappies at this time of the year can be cruel to the fingers.

    But great that you are doing it – most particularly for sharing the parenting load, but also the environmental thinggy 🙂

  15. There are some decent political journos with integrity out there. George Mega, Andrew Elder and a few amateur heroes who deserve a medal, eg Wixxy. The rest of them all go with the current flow, empty of ideas, afraid to rock the boat. A few are just evil: Lewis, Kenny, Uhlmann. Our best hope is the comment man and woman and the Net.

  17. Middle man back forwards for check ups to melbour e

    Google it to lo g to explain and my battery nearly gone

    It was a dreadful ti e he has a litt hole above tne stent will need a new valve
    But its a bit isolated as i think sne feels bit insecure
    The pediatrician is good but tbe travel is a worry

  21. fiona. we use Green Kids nappies made in WA. they aren’t like the old ones!

    my wife and I are about to swap with her going back to work and me doing a stint as househubby.

  22. Rossmore,

    Include in your list Greg Jericho (Grog’s Gamut) and Ad Astra (The Political Sword).

    They both do exemplary stuff.

  23. fiona. in bris. is quite mild tonight after a chilly week. we have a clothesline under our raised qld’er, so you are out of the elements.

  24. [Mick Collins
    Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 10:43 pm | Permalink
    Pyne needs a smack in the mouth]

    Now, now Mick…

  26. That w
    ould be great fiona

    Middle man my son in law has a pharmacy 2 in fact so its all disposable
    I use tio hang out 3 doz a day in tbe frost

  27. mm,

    IF my daughter decides to have children, and IF she decides to do so in Australia, no doubt I shall become acquainted with the latest technology. Meanwhile, memories of pegging towelling nappies on the line in subzero temps 24 years ago still send my fingers all of a-tremble.

    Best wishes to you and your wife, and I hope that you both have a huge amount of fun.

  29. Christopher Pyne has been caught out big time on Tow – back – the boats
    Totally floundering over the COALitions inconsitency that Indoneasia IS NOT a signatory of the UNHCR

  30. my say. google ‘green kids nappies’ and have a look at what they are like nowadays. very different to the old clothe ones.

  33. Pine-o-Clean. oh I could wax lyrical on that snarly, angry little, bust a blood vessel poodle. Still reckon he is up to his eyeballs in and perhaps possibly with Ashby.

  37. I meant to add, mm, that it’s you that will be having most of the fun.

    To be honest, I thought that being a mother would be pretty dull for the first year or so.

    Then I fell in love.

    It was then that I discovered how entrancing even the smallest baby is – when you have the privilege of observing the smallest changes, the big leaps … is it any wonder that I’ve developed into a developmental psychologist?

  42. my say,

    I only had one child, so usually it was only 18 a day, but I know exactly what you mean!

    I would still prefer the towelling to the disposables. However, I’m sure that the latter will be of interest to archaeologists in 1000 years’ time (assuming that there are archaeologists – whether human or otherwise – on this planet at that time).

  43. fiona. certainly seems that you’ve found your calling.

    i’m wondering how my two boys will go from all watching mum to pretty relaxed dad… if they hurt themselves on my shift i’ll be in trouble!

  45. Good evening from your Poll Bludger on the ground reporter in Gladstone.
    The city is eerily quiet ,long lines of cars at petrol stations, supermarkets sold out of baked beans candles and such.
    Gas masks are being distributed to school children,adults will miss out.
    Nah this is not true, i’m not a very good liar, wouldn’t make a Liebral voter.
    Actually i’m not even in Gladstone but can see the distant lights.
    Report back on Sunday morning. I will sit in a deck chair with my sunnies on and watch for the mushroom cloud.

  48. Fiona… Why thank you, I will look both of them up. So many of the journos today seem magnetized to mediocrity, as if their raison d’etre is to upset no one.

  49. I’m sure schmackos are Pynes staple diet.

    Now Late Lines telling us that Jedi Knights are greater in Number than Scientologists.
    I put down Jedi on my census form

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