Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.

UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

Matters federal:

• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.

• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.

Matters state:

• Kristina Keneally will quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia, thereby initiating a by-election for her inner southern Sydney seat of Heffron, where her margin was cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at the March 2011 election. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Keneally’s favoured successor is “Michael Comninos, a former Labor government staffer”, but that party sources have also mentioned Ron Hoenig, a barrister and the mayor of Botany since 1981, and another Botany councillor, Stan Kondilios. The report also quotes Keneally saying she would “never say never” to a return to politics, but she rules out doing so at the next federal election.

• Alex Cauchi of the Wentworth Courier reports the Greens have preselected Sydney councillor Chris Harris as their candidate for the state by-election which is expected to be required in the seat of Sydney as a result of a looming legislative ban on members of parliament serving in local government. The present member for the seat is independent Clover Moore, who will seek another term as Sydney’s lord mayor in September. A looming Liberal preselection will be contested by finance broker Adrian Bartels, who fell 3.1% short of victory as the candidate at the last election, and Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard, who ran in 2003.

• Sixteen candidates have nominated for the July 21 by-election for the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, which is being followed at this dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9,415 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  3. @9232 BK – while I respect the ratings agencies assessment, let it not be forgotten that they are the ones who rated all the debt and institutions that resulted in the GFC.

  5. That was a shocking effort by Pyne. At one stage Emma asked him a question about something Hunt has said regarding the DAP and he had to admit he didn’t have a clue.
    Then Emerson jumped in and said he knew more about the DAP than Pyne and proceeded to flay the Libs over their dud policy.

  7. On 12 October 2011, one week before the tenth anniversary of the sinking of the SIEV X, SH-Y and Milne put a motion to the Senate:
    [(a) recalls, with regret, that on 19 October 2001, the SIEV X carrying approximately 400 asylum seekers sank on its way to Australia, resulting in the drowning of 146 children, 142 women and 65 men and only 41 people survived;

    (b) notes that:

    (i) in interviews with the United Nations High Commission for Refugees, survivors told of the involvement of the Indonesian military in the boarding and organising of the voyage,

    (ii) survivors reported that they saw two military vessels appear, shine lights on the water and sail away,

    (iv) Australia maintained a People Smuggling Disruption Program in the region at the time,

    (v) the Australian listening station at Shoal Bay was operational at the time, and

    (vi) many outstanding serious questions remain about the failure to rescue desperate people in the water and must be answered in the interests of justice and humanity; and

    (c) calls on the Government to establish a judicial inquiry into the SIEV X, subsequent investigations in the SIEV X tragedy and all circumstances pertaining to its voyage, loss and rescue of survivors.]
    Labor and the Coalition voted together to defeat the motion.

    Uncovering the circumstances and contributing factors that led to the SIEV X tragedy were as pertinent then as they are now.

    However both major parties had no interest then and continue to have no interest now because it’s all about politics.

  8. mm

    I do research with young children because of the fascination of their cognitive development (well, that’s my excuse).

    In other words, it’s only partly because they are delightful.

    However, to be completely honest, working with kids in Grades 1, 2, and 3 is intensely rewarding as a researcher because they just LOVE getting the one-on-one attention, and it doesn’t really matter how boring the tasks are – the attention makes up for all of it.

    When they are in Prep (or the name-equivalent depending where you are) they are much more feral, so you have to have great strategies to get them to focus and do whatever you want them to be doing.

    When they are in Years 5 and 6 many of them are far too cool to be doing any of this researchy stuff.

    So – from my perspective – Years 1, 2, and 3 are the BEST.

    Therefore, if any of youse are parents of kids in these years, think kindly and ACT kindly upon most research requests – because you and (more importantly) they are helping us find out incredibly useful stuff that will help many other children. To reassure you, ALL research involving human participants – especially children – has to go through very high hoops before the relevant Ethics Committee will approve it.

  9. [The Finnigans
    Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    There is no way Malcolm will demolish the #NBN. It’s not in his DNA.]

    Did you actually read the article from start to finish? Malcolm bought into OzEmail for $500,000 and sold his stake for $57 million, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OzEmail

    He never founded OzEmail, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Turnbull
    “Turnbull was also chair of a large Australia Internet Service Provider, OzEmail (1994–99), a director of FTR Holdings Ltd (1995–2004), chair and managing director of Goldman Sachs Australia (1997–2001) and a partner with Goldman Sachs and Co (1998–2001).”

    The only thing in his “DNA” is making money and his aspirations to be Prime Minister.

    I must ask what makes you think he wouldn’t stop the NBN, he played no part in the start up of OzEmail, he was smart enough to buy into a company that made him millions.

  10. The COALition are a joke
    They are a rabble
    They have no policies
    They stand for nothing
    Other than RAbbotts vague promise to magically turn back the clock to pre nov 2007.
    Any body who votes for them believing that they will change anything is an out and out cretin

  11. Don’t worry yourselves about Abbott and carbon pricing. He hasn’t got a scrap of integrity in him and he’s just following the opinion polls. He’ll go on and on and on about carbon pricing for as long as the polls say a majority of people are against it. As soon as that changes or people stop caring he’ll walk away from every commitment. That’s exactly what he’s done with the NBN.

    A lot of people haven’t noticed this yet, but Abbott’s already been backed into a corner. He had a whole range of topics to rail about not that long ago – mining tax, NBN, Thomson, Slipper, asylum seekers, carbon tax – and as things stand he’s down to one. Most of those he’s never going to get back. Not even AS, which has been a pet project for the Libs ever since Tampa. The Liberal proposal was never much good to start with, and it was only going to be useful as long as nobody looked at it too closely. Which is the reason he doesn’t want to talk about it, and also the reason why every time Morrison opens his big fat mouth things get worse.

    He has to fight for his life on carbon tax as well. For one thing the scare campaign ends on Sunday. From that point on he has to convince people that the reality is bad. To add to that he has to argue against tax cuts and compensation. He’ll have to abandon it some time, but until then expect to hear all sorts of apocalyptic language. And keep in mind, after that he has nothing left in the kit bag. Anyone who saw QT this week would know that.

  12. Fiona,

    You will be happy to know that I have happily agreed to research requests. But my kids are now in yrs 4 and 6. I have to say watching their journey has been a blast.

  15. SK,

    I’m delighted to learn that!

    I’ve been doing this stuff for 17 years now – scary!

    You are right – it is an absolute blast. I’ve had the privilege of following 200+ children from Prep through to Year 6 with a particular emphasis on maths development – and it has been an amazing journey.

    We have also had some spin-off studies following up particular aspects of those findings, and I’m two days out of finishing off the latest of those rounds of data collection. Mind-blowing stuff, and my everlasting gratitude to the children, the parents, the teachers, and in this instance one amazing school.

  16. Aguirre, RAbbotts Hubris will catch up with him.
    Hes where the Boy who cries wolf intersects with the Emporer that has no clothes.

  17. Good evening all.

    I liked the highlighting of being a Jedi is more common in Australia than belonging to Scientology in Australia.

    😀

  18. Article by Sunili Govinnage, a Perth-based lawyer who has strong interests in human rights and social justice issues – Saving Lives and the Asylum Seeker Debate:
    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4097206.html

    On the Oakeshott Bill:
    [What this bill is not about, however, is saving people from drowning at sea.

    In this context, Rob Oakeshott’s “compromise” position needs to be seen for what it is: a cynical attempt to outsource Australia’s obligations under international law. Rather than keeping asylum seekers from drowning, this approach is about trying to force them to stop bothering to get here. That’s why it’s about “deterrence”, and why the only thing we’re seeking to protect here are our borders.

    ……But it is pretty clear nobody wants to touch any of that (other than the Greens, who, despite their bleeding-heart naiveté, will not have blood on their hands if they oppose Oakeshott’s bill). Labor, the Liberals, and the Independents need to end the concern trolling, already. They should just admit why offshore processing is the only option on the table, get on with it, and stop lying. Or they should put their grandstanding about humanitarianism into practice and implement policies that are about our humanity, not our selfish fears.]

  21. fiona,

    Wow. That must have been an amazing experience. When I was at school I was part of a similar study. Two classes one control, one pushed to the limits. Our class was the second and we’d finished the yr ten curriculum by year 6. We learnt additional skills such as speed reading from the get go. I read Alexandre Dumas novels in french (admittedly with the aid of a french dictionary) by year 4 and loved every minute of school. Got to high school and all the very intelligent, well behaved kids were getting into trouble. Turns out it was because we were all bored. Only found out in yr8 that we’d been part of an experiment because so many of us were in trouble.

  22. TLBD:

    I shouldn’t have dived into the pond too quickly (though I think my assertion will still float) – do you mean the original “studies” or the later “interpretations”?

  23. guytaur @ 9367

    Good evening all.

    I liked the highlighting of being a Jedi is more common in Australia than belonging to Scientology in Australia.
    😀

    I was reassured by that until it emerged that some of them at least are serious!!!

  24. fiona,

    The workers in the 1920s who reacted positively whether the lighting was improved or worsened.

    They performed better because of the attention.

  25. SK,

    Fascinating!

    I bet that that one wouldn’t have passed the Ethics Committees these days – not even 17 years ago.

  27. @9366 Mick Collins
    Calm down, otherwise a naked animal will cross your path.

    I just shuddered as an image of Sophie crossed my mind

  28. Fiona,

    Apparently all the parents knew and had to sign but they weren’t to tell us. But when so many of us started having problems (and because all the parents knew each other well) they started putting two and two together.

    Once the recognised the problem, they put us in in the same class and changed our lessons. From that point on things got better.

  36. bemused

    I am relaxed about the Jedi thing. With us Aussies its more the humour than the serious.
    Now if this result came about in the US a whole different story.

  42. Puffy,

    Thanks. Now that was one surreal day. I think I changed more on that one single day than I have in my entire life!

  45. SK,

    MOI IS the ONLY Fiona Reynolds – but I see your point.

    I’ve tweeted you, to say that I hafta go – catch up tomorrow I hope, and I hope that I will work out Twitter sooner rather than later.

  48. SK,

    [Now that was one surreal day. I think I changed more on that one single day than I have in my entire life!]

    Nothing – but nothing – is like it.

    Happy remembering!

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