The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
• Kristina Keneally will quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia, thereby initiating a by-election for her inner southern Sydney seat of Heffron, where her margin was cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at the March 2011 election. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Keneally’s favoured successor is “Michael Comninos, a former Labor government staffer”, but that party sources have also mentioned Ron Hoenig, a barrister and the mayor of Botany since 1981, and another Botany councillor, Stan Kondilios. The report also quotes Keneally saying she would “never say never” to a return to politics, but she rules out doing so at the next federal election.
• Alex Cauchi of the Wentworth Courier reports the Greens have preselected Sydney councillor Chris Harris as their candidate for the state by-election which is expected to be required in the seat of Sydney as a result of a looming legislative ban on members of parliament serving in local government. The present member for the seat is independent Clover Moore, who will seek another term as Sydney’s lord mayor in September. A looming Liberal preselection will be contested by finance broker Adrian Bartels, who fell 3.1% short of victory as the candidate at the last election, and Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard, who ran in 2003.
• Sixteen candidates have nominated for the July 21 by-election for the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, which is being followed at this dedicated post.
SK this is the levy the Tories opposed, I take it.
Their preferred model for dealing with the WLD flood damage was a traditional Aussie BBQ and cake stall, wasn’t it?
I guess we could have saved ourselves that $2 Billion.
Mind you, QLD would still be busted.
[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
On Sunday, Australian interest rates will still be 3.75%, a rate last achieved by a Coalition Govt in 1965]
[Sooo tell me what was Australia doing to their “natives” in 1868 whilst the sheepens legislated that at least four Maori were elected to parliament ?]
It doesn’t bear remembering…
Smithe,
It obviously made a huge impact on my life, I hadn’t realised we’d been slugged already. 😉
Speaking of the flood levy, how’s Tone’s Great Big Network of Dams going? Still his policy?
Mod Lib
[It doesn’t bear remembering…]
That is the problem. There is far too little remembering.
Ducky,
I believe the good LNP were shovelling…. when they promised that rubbish.
ML:
I no longer feel any certainty around when all the relevent polls are released.
The inland dams network was a classic brain fart, nothing more.
t minus 27 hourss and counting
smithe,
[Their preferred model for dealing with the WLD flood damage was a traditional Aussie BBQ and cake stall, wasn’t it?]
Of course: the tory method of dealing with disadvantage is always to use the least efficient method. That’s why state schools and kindergartens are so dependent on sausage sizzles and cake stalls for the bare necessities of education, not to mention the frills.
That’s also why the tories’ (note the correct use of the apostrophe when dealing with a plural) preferred means of “redistributing” wealth (apart from middle- and upper-class welfare) is the well-known and highly-efficient “trickle-down” effect…
(At least that seems apt in the context of a flood disaster.)
make that 26 hours
Poroti, the BISONs say TQ
[Speaking of the flood levy, how’s Tone’s Great Big Network of Dams going? Still his policy?]
Policy?
The word simply does not compute with Abbott.
BK:
Abbott + Policy = Oxymoronic?
On dear, the Poms are doing good in the ODI vs us. i blame the #CrabonPrice
Now Fiona, if you keep piss-farting around with the proper use of apostrophes on me I will have to redistribute my affection for you.
is cricket on FTA?
Aaargh, double post.
Oops.
mm
Only on Foxtel
Hmmm, It’s very clear that Malcolm T is doing a bit of stirring lately with the BOATS & NBN. v interesting MOAR …. MOAR ….. MOAR
Bk
grrrrrrrr….
smithe,
At least it wasn’t a double apostrophe!
Anyways, I was just having a quiet joke about a few posters 😉
Never you. At least, not tonight, Josephine…
mm
Poms 0/60 after 14
[14m Stephen Koukoulas Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
On Sunday, Australia will be one of only 7 countries in the world with a stable AAA credit rating from all 3 major ratings agencies
Retweeted by Mark Colvin ]
I can’t see that Malcolm has moved an inch on the NBN, Finns.
The Finnigans
Here be the original More More More
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlJGrIyt-X8
Now, that should be interesting
Sorry, how do the bark beetles figure in this picture? (serious)
The bark beetles are killed by extreme low temperatures (generally below -40), which aren’t happening in the Rockies anywhere near as much as they used to.
That said, the Colorado heatwave has been sufficiently extreme that it’s likely there would have been serious fires regardless. Denver had five successive days of 38 C/100 F on above with a peak of 41, both of which equalled all-time records (and remember that Denver is 1600 metres above sea level, similar to most Australian ski resorts).
American temperatures to date in 2012 are running so far ahead of previous records that even a normal July to December will be enough for them to have their hottest year on record.
Poroti, methinks that hot pants have gone cold
Bk
yikes!
[On Sunday, Australia will be one of only 7 countries in the world with a stable AAA credit rating from all 3 major ratings agencies
Retweeted by Mark Colvin]
The ratings agencies are only experts. Whj\at would they know?
Yes Fiona. I suspected you might have been aiming that blunderbuss at someone else here. A self-confessed pedant and shaper of young minds.
Keep right on shooting girl.
Smithe, he has moved a mile, not an inch:
[Nearly two years after Tony Abbott vowed to tear down the beginnings of the national broadband network and to “demolish” it, the Coalition now says it will not roll back or cancel it, if it comes to power at the next election.
Shadow Minister for Communications and Broadband Malcolm Turnbull told IT Pro firmly this week: “No, the Coalition will not cancel or roll back the NBN. The NBN will continue to roll out but we will do so in a cost-effective manner in particular in built-up areas.”]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/we-will-not-cancel-the-nbn-turnbull-20120629-217f3.html#ixzz1zBKtZ8md
Finns,
Isn’t that the same as before. This is just campaign positioning. Still fttn and still only in cbd and bugger everyone else.
smithe
[A self-confessed pedant and shaper of young minds.]
Yes, that’s me to a tee 🙂
Assuming that you count undergraduates as young minds, of course!
(although I suspect that you are implying something slightly different 😉 )
Fiiinnnyyy
There is some weasel words in that announcement that the NBN is not going to get abbotted.
I wouldn’t trust ’em as far as you can kick ’em.
That “cost effective manner” is the kicker Finns.
It rehashes their fibre to the node, copper and coaxial nonsense. All he’s really promised is to refrain from ripping up NBN cabling already laid.
I suggest you read the article in full. In the main, it’s a restatement of the well known existing Tory policy. There’s bugger all new in it.
Looks like Hawthorn is slaughtering the blue baggers
[Nearly two years after Tony Abbott vowed to tear down the beginnings of the national broadband network and to “demolish” it, the Coalition now says it will not roll back or cancel it, if it comes to power at the next election.]
This worries me. It suggests that the coalition are trying to present themselves as the middle ground, and have realised they cannot oppose the NBN and appeal to the centre at the same time.
The Finnigans
[Poroti, methinks that hot pants have gone cold]
Oy vey I remember the shock horror scandal in 1971 when one of our teachers turned up in hot pants. 😆 End of civilisation as we know it apparently.
smithe
It is the usual tory smoke and mirrors, and by getting MT to announce it, they hope it will have some credence. Fat chance.
poroti
They used to measure the girls skirts in my high school, no more than an inch above the knee allowed. Out of school I had a skirt that was not measured in double figures, waist to hem.
Oh and he also promises to continue the roll-out of their “cost effective” version of the NBN only in built-up areas. Rural and regional Australia can apparently take a jump.
PTMD… got photo’s? 😉
Puff,
I used to wear incredibly short tartan skirts a long doc martens. My dad told me i’d cover more if I swapped the boots with the skirt!
SK. i think i might have dated you! lol.
middle man,
I’m positive you didn’t because I’m sure you would remember 😉
hahaha. i’m sure i would have!
There is no way Malcolm will demolish the #NBN. It’s not in his DNA.