Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.

UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

Matters federal:

• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.

• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.

Matters state:

• Kristina Keneally will quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia, thereby initiating a by-election for her inner southern Sydney seat of Heffron, where her margin was cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at the March 2011 election. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Keneally’s favoured successor is “Michael Comninos, a former Labor government staffer”, but that party sources have also mentioned Ron Hoenig, a barrister and the mayor of Botany since 1981, and another Botany councillor, Stan Kondilios. The report also quotes Keneally saying she would “never say never” to a return to politics, but she rules out doing so at the next federal election.

• Alex Cauchi of the Wentworth Courier reports the Greens have preselected Sydney councillor Chris Harris as their candidate for the state by-election which is expected to be required in the seat of Sydney as a result of a looming legislative ban on members of parliament serving in local government. The present member for the seat is independent Clover Moore, who will seek another term as Sydney’s lord mayor in September. A looming Liberal preselection will be contested by finance broker Adrian Bartels, who fell 3.1% short of victory as the candidate at the last election, and Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard, who ran in 2003.

• Sixteen candidates have nominated for the July 21 by-election for the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, which is being followed at this dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9,415 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 184 of 189
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  1. BB wish i was in Syndney I would be at the lunch with bells on!

    SK Twitter is fairly painless and when it runs hot it is kind of addictive. A good diversion.

  2. Poroti,

    [She stood up to them and said that it was the right thing to do and that she would do it again.]

    Just as Fraser did back in the second half of the 1970s – and it was bipartisanship all the way until …

    Space Kidette,

    Here’s to your dreams, and their happy realisation.

  3. Confessions:

    So was Mal Brough actually the first Australian elected to the Federal HOR who was of Aboriginal descent (as opposed to Aboriginal)?

  6. Mod Lib

    [You took away the unlosable Prime Ministership from the poor sod….can’t you leave him alone now after more than a decade?]
    I wish him well after gifting us 3 years of PJK PM 🙂 BUT the blighter seems to keep getting on the board of companies that are deep sixed. Coincidence ? 😆

  7. [Gweneth
    Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 8:50 pm | Permalink
    BB wish i was in Syndney ]

    [Gweneth
    Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Permalink
    Sydney…]

    I thought you were Juan Antonia for a minute there!

  9. ML:

    [So was Mal Brough actually the first Australian elected to the Federal HOR who was of Aboriginal descent (as opposed to Aboriginal)?]

    I doubt it. There are so many, particularly of an older generation than mine, who (un)scrupulously concealed any hint of the “tar brush”.

    In my own extended family there’s a case in point – but never ever ever would you persuade that individual to admit the heritage.

  14. Poroti

    I said whilst Tampa was raging and Labor candidates out door knocking were having doors slammed in their faces that the ALP should have taken a stand on principle, as they did with Vietnam, and accept an election loss for long term gain.

    Beazley should have stood on the steps of Parliament House and laughed at the idea of a Migration Zone…

  15. mod lib. another Adam Smith classic:

    Our merchants and master-manufacturers complain much of the bad effects of high wages in raising the price, and thereby lessening the sale of their goods both at home and abroad. They say nothing concerning the bad effects of high profits. They are silent with regard to the pernicious effects of their own gains. They complain only of those of other people.

  16. I was just discussing with my Mother the demise of see-saws on modern oh&s’ed-to-the-nth-degree playgrounds.

    That is a shame because seesaws taught some very important lessons.

    Co-operation. You have to find someone else to share with. On your own it does not work.
    Sharing, and taking your turn to get the fun of going up high.
    Dealing with danger. You could fall off if if didn’t concentrate and hang on and your playmate didn’t do the right thing.
    Trust. You didn’t want your partner to drop you in the sand, and they trusted you not to do it to them.
    Keeping your wits about you. If you didn’t get off it properly with someone on the other end, your end could belt you on its way up

    Maybe we need some big seesaws on the APH lawns.

  17. SK,

    In case you missed it earlier, I am v grateful for your link to the profile of Mr Moriscum. Frightening stuff.

  18. I well could be wrong but I would not be surprised if the move by Palmer re lobbyists is a lot to do with getting a hit on Santo Santoro who is on the executive.

    It is a LNP thing.

    Gweneth,

    My thoughts are with you.

  19. Mod Lib
    [So was Mal Brough actually the first Australian elected to the Federal HOR who was of Aboriginal descent (as opposed to Aboriginal)? ]
    Fcuk youse guys think you are so hip and modern when in Sheepens land (BB 😉 ) there have been Maori MPs since 1868. Get with the times bro.

  20. Victoria That is a cruel twist for your friend and her husband. The universe is a very perverse place at times. Beyond my understanding.

    ML so did I…

  22. Bushfire Bill @ 9158,

    Fair enough. But other than go on a sugar daddy strike, what is Clive going to do?

    If anything Clive wants to be player. He will not just sit on the sidelines.

  23. http://wixxy.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/last-stop-this-town/

    [
    Last Stop This Town
    Posted: June 29, 2012 in HSU Saga, Politics
    10

    Over the course of the last couple of months I have been looking into the goings on within some parts of the HSU, and into a place I have often referred to as Jacksonville.

    Today I wanted to take a small peek into another town that shares a part of the border with Jacksonville. Its name is Lawler Creek.

    I thought it might be beneficial to look at some of its citizens.

    Most of you will know Michael Lawler from my previous posts on the HSU. Michael is the Vice President Of Fair Work Australia, which seems to have unwittingly become based in Lawler Creek, despite attempts by its President, Iain Ross to see it doesn’t. Michael is also the partner of Kathy Jackson]

  24. [Fcuk youse guys think you are so hip and modern when in Sheepens land (BB ) there have been Maori MPs since 1868.]

    Gee, the Indigenous life expectancy is a lot longer in NZ than here then!

  25. Mod Lib

    I’d hazard a guess not….but perhaps the first we know about!

    (I know of a family who denies their grandmother was part Indian and explain her dark skin by saying she was suckled by an Indian wet nurse…)

  26. fiona,

    I did see it but I am glad you reminded me because there is another, even more scary profile, of the activities of LNP Senator Cory Bernardi. He is so right wing he makes hte Nazi’s look like lefties.

    I will dig it out for you if you are interested.

  27. Gweneth

    Still cant get my head around it. Beyond my understanding too.

    In any case, all my very best positive energy going your way for a speedy recovery

  29. Anyhow, as far as we know, its 4 Federal parliamentarians of Aboriginal descent and 3 of them have been Liberals.

    Yay for the Libs!

  30. Mod Lib:

    You can’t be considered of indigenous descent if you don’t identify as such.

    And incidentally there are those who claim that his sister Carol is overstating her indigenous heritage. Of course I make no comment on that front.

  31. Puff TMD,

    [Maybe we need some big seesaws on the APH lawns.]

    AND some big roundabouts. Not the wimpy metal ones – &w=380&h=247&ei=vYvtT6uYO-fUigeqyamYDQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=96&vpy=309&dur=1781&hovh=181&hovw=279&tx=139&ty=110&sig=101590335075414764661&page=1&tbnh=136&tbnw=195&start=0&ndsp=13&ved=1t:429,r:4,s:0,i:86″ rel=”nofollow”>the real deal, with wooden floors, where you ran and ran and ran pushing them until they got up some speed, then you would leap on and hang on tight delirious with the speed and the force. Also good lessons for politicians – how to deal with almost irresistible forces without coming undone.

  36. [Fcuk youse guys think you are so hip and modern when in Sheepens land (BB ) there have been Maori MPs since 1868.]

    Poroti, i do have soft spot for them Sheeppen Shaggers, as long as they dont call me Fenns

  37. Last year, for every $10 billion worth of climate-related disasters, an extra 1% of Americans decided that AGW was real after all.

    Last year they racked up 6.5% of AGW-related mind-changing events. Here’s hoping that at least another 10% of them have good cause to change their minds about AGW.

    If there is one nation that has done more than any other in the world to cause AGW, it is the US. And if there is one nation that has done more to stop action on AGW than any other it is the US.

    BTW, fires are now raging in 6 westerns states and New Mexico has just had its biggest ever wildfire. And GUESS WHAT, firefighters are complaining about how the fires are more difficult to fight because of all the dead trees. And they are blaming bark beetles.

    What goes round comes round.

  40. fiona

    [AND some big roundabouts. Not the wimpy metal ones – the real deal, with wooden ]
    They drove my mum nuts. I’d go down to the local park and the “big kids” would spin them at a 100 mph. Resulting in us littlies being flung off into the mud surrounding them.Of course we could not get enough of the fun but mum was not so impressed at what it did to my white shirts she like to dress me in 😆

  41. [poroti
    Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 9:07 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib

    Gee, the Indigenous life expectancy is a lot longer in NZ than here then!

    Argue with this bloke !!]

    Where those dedicated Maori seats?

    Not that I have a problem with that, but it is a little different to an Indigenous person winning a contested open seat or Senate spot like the Libs have done in Australia (the only non-Lib Indigenous parliamentarian being Aiden Ridgeway of the Dems I think).

  46. [Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    On Sunday, the flood levy for rebuilding Qld ends adding nearly $2 billion a year to household income]

  47. Poroti,

    [Resulting in us littlies being flung off into the mud surrounding them.]

    With the greatest respect to your mum, I realised very early (my one and only babe started crawling at 5.5 months) that dressing kids in non-show-the-dirt colours was a sensible move. So she, puir wee lassie, was dressed in navy, dark brown, etc etc etc until at the age of 4 years she demanded PINK…

  49. [confessions
    Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink
    No Morgan this week?]

    There hasn’t been a phone poll for near on 2 months.

    I think it is Neilsen week next week….yeah?

  50. Mod Lib

    [Where those dedicated Maori seats?]
    Initially yes. But the motivation as to why was 100% honourable. The Maoris did not have a majority in any electorate so FPTP voting meant they would not be elected. The great and the good thought that they should be. I suppose it was proportional representation in a first past the post system. Sooo tell me what was Australia doing to their “natives” in 1868 whilst the sheepens legislated that at least four Maori were elected to parliament ?

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