The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
• Kristina Keneally will quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia, thereby initiating a by-election for her inner southern Sydney seat of Heffron, where her margin was cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at the March 2011 election. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Keneally’s favoured successor is “Michael Comninos, a former Labor government staffer”, but that party sources have also mentioned Ron Hoenig, a barrister and the mayor of Botany since 1981, and another Botany councillor, Stan Kondilios. The report also quotes Keneally saying she would “never say never” to a return to politics, but she rules out doing so at the next federal election.
• Alex Cauchi of the Wentworth Courier reports the Greens have preselected Sydney councillor Chris Harris as their candidate for the state by-election which is expected to be required in the seat of Sydney as a result of a looming legislative ban on members of parliament serving in local government. The present member for the seat is independent Clover Moore, who will seek another term as Sydney’s lord mayor in September. A looming Liberal preselection will be contested by finance broker Adrian Bartels, who fell 3.1% short of victory as the candidate at the last election, and Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard, who ran in 2003.
• Sixteen candidates have nominated for the July 21 by-election for the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, which is being followed at this dedicated post.
zoomster
Is this in the same area as this last damage?
[BB
There is still every chance that the fibs are going to tear themselves apart at any moment]
We’ve seen ti beforeand it always seems to come from Queensland.
There is no question at all that Clive thought he’d bought the party.Even to a billionaire, a million is serious money. To be told he’s just an ordinary member, with a single vote just like anybody else, must be galling to him. He’ll be fuming.
Remember, he has a mad streak. Raise the Titanic, CIA, giant billboards. The man is larger than life and no dummy. He’ll get the message from Abbott – “Sit down and shut up” – but I doubt he’ll like it. Clive seems to me to be a big hater.
Guys like him, who could buy and sell the entire business interests of every Liberal Party member out of chump change, don’t take kindly to being put in their place.= by pipsqueaks like Tony Abbott, who’s still got a mortgage in his fifties (for God’s sake). I do to, but I’m not running for Prime Minister, a Liberal Prime Minister.
In short, Palmer didn’t make his money by toeing the line and being meek. He made it by investing wisely, accruing a good share of luck, being smart and not taking prisoners. Abbott (spare, ascetic, balding with a wife his own age), to Palmer (a man of gargantuan accomplishments in every way), would be a carbuncle on the backside of humanity. A pissant. A useful idiot who will be put in his place one day, and one day soon.
That kabuki performance of Palmer being humble the other day wasn’t worth two-bob, and is unlikely to have convinced anyone that suddenly Clive has gone all collegiate.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
Santo Santoro says he’s never had a conflict of interest between his lobbyist interests and Lib Party exec duties. #libfed]
That’s why he was sacked in disgrace from the Senate. Nursing home investments, wasn’t it?
[Which, as you know, was then channelled into his own campaign fund.]
Millions of dollars.
Almost makes the accusations against Thomson look run of the mill.
BB
Speaking of Qld
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 6s
Clive Palmer just held a second presser says he thinks there’s a conflict of interest with Santoro lobbying for Port of Brisbane. #libfed
View details]
We’ve seen ti beforeand it always seems to come from Queensland.
Clive atm is seen as the funny uncle. No harm done.
a few years yet for labor to regain power
[Moylan was born in the Perth suburb of Guildford and educated at Perth Technical College. She was an education officer and lecturer, a real estate agent and company director before entering politics. She was President of the Midland and Districts Chamber of Commerce 1990–91]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judi_Moylan
doyley – I’m with you. Shout it loud, shout it proud – Unions have done a lot for workers and that’s where I disagreed with Kevin Rudd after he won in 2007 and started walking away from the mob who paid for his election win. Labor went into heavy debt to pay for that election even tho the Unions spent millions on it for Rudd. He gave them no thanks and still doesn’t.
ModLib – where in that wiki bio is mentin of the fights between Whitlam Turnbull & Co. – Turnbull never leaves something without controversy. He has a way of only looking out for MT to the detriment of his partners.
No mention of the HIH kerfuffle or that Joe Hockey stopped the case from showing up how badly it is alleged that Turnbull acted.
Clive Palmer is like a bull in everyone’s china shop.
[Gary
Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 8:23 pm | Permalink
Not to mention the federal election to come!
Hubris. Love it.]
Guilty as charged….I am indeed loving it! 🙂
OK. How about:
Clive Palmer is a bull in search of china shop.
Emerson and wuf wuf Pyne-o-Clean on Lateline with Alberici tonight.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 30s
“@bonitamersiades: @latikambourke So @CliveFPalmer in good form then?” splendid form]
View details ·
[ Latika Bourke @latikambourke 1m
“@SimonBanksHB: .@latikambourke Have @CliveFPalmer motions been voted on and if so which lobbyists voted against them?” got smashed.]
Gough1 @9076 August 20 2010 ” I don’t rule out the possibility of legislating a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, a market based mechanism” Author?
Come on Gough1 give us a difficult one. That was on the front page of the Oz written by P Kelly and D Shanahan on the day of the election. We could hardly miss it. It has been replayed by all the radio stat…… ohhhh sorry that was the other one.
Author J. Gillard
Evening Pbs
This may be a little out sequence in the current discussion but chemo treatment has kept interrupting me while I write this post, so I apologise if it seems ill timed.
It is just a side note that I have been meaning to make over the last little while re correcting other people’s grammar, writing, speech etc. As a lover of the English language, I can understand the desire of those who feel gifted in this area to strut their stuff but correcting others has long been seen as quite rude for some good reasons.
Firstly, because it says “I am not interested in what you are saying”. Whatever your intention, you are devaluing a person’s contribution to the discussion.
Secondly, it makes the common mistake that there is actually a set of codified rules for these things. A sophisticated understanding of language recognises that grammar is really a description of a really complex and fundamentally dynamic phenomena. The only ‘rules’ may well exist are that there are always exceptions to rules, and when in Rome etc etc Time, place and purpose determine correct form.
For those that don’t want to be rude, as a rule of thumb, the only people who can correct others in public are parents, teachers and where the person in question has requested that you to perform this function.
Otherwise, seek clarification in discussion if unsure of meaning but assume the error is your error rather than embarrassing others for ego or pendant’s sake. It leads to better conversations in the end.
If you don’t care about others, by all means carrying on editing other people.
Victoria
No.
The house is an unusual design. It has a sloping glass window, made up of dozens of sheets of toughened glass, on the northern side, two stores high.
Behind this, the roof is supported by wooden beams, which join together at the top, like the top of an old fashioned tent.
The very top circle of that had a removable cover, so the heat can be released in summer.
The storm has rEmoved it.
[Boerwar
Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 8:29 pm | Permalink
OK. How about:
Clive Palmer is a bull in search of china shop.]
How about clive palmer is actually pretty popular in qld ?
Storeys…damn iPad…
The last lot of damage was one of the window panes on the north.
[Mal Brough is of aboriginal descent but does not identify himself as such]
From Ken Wyatt’s wiki page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Wyatt
I didn’t know that…..how interesting!
[Clive Palmer is like a bull in everyone’s china shop.]
Wrong again Boerwar. Turing won the war and bulls are really quite polite in China shops:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk_zpMory-0
according to Mythbusters.
Gweneth
I for one love saying reckon and frickin!
How is the chemo treating you?
Mod Lib @9107
Ooh a pattern forming.Well there is John Hewson and umm did I mention Natural Fuels ? Did I mention Stan Howard ?
[The former Liberal leader John Hewson may have to prepare for another court appearance to explain his role at Elderslie Finance Corporation, after creditors passed a resolution yesterday to engage a litigation funder willing to subsidise various claims against the failed company’s former directors.
Three years since Elderslie collapsed owing $140 million to 4000 noteholders, creditors ]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/elderslie-creditors-gun-for-hewson-20110803-1ibou.html#ixzz1zB2Mx9rq
Gweneth. well bloody said!!!
zoomster
The weather has been treating your house very kindly indeed!
Bushfire Bill @ 9102,
But what will Palmer do. Palmer isn’t Joh, he doesn’t have platform to run for PM. Furthermore a Palmer Party isn’t exactly going to set the world on fire?
Palmer doesn’t really have any options outside the Liberals.
Gweneth
[9123
middle man
Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 8:35 pm | Permalink
Gweneth. well bloody said!!!]
And that too!
Thanks Gwenyth
You know when i write something i am realy speaking, the word or sentance, iam about
To say/:-) write is whats o my mind
Nothing else,
Poroti @ 9080
Your analysis has parallels to New Zealand First primarily attracting hitherto Labour supporters in the Shaky Isles.
Gweneth,
Sorry to learn that things have been trying – I hope it all improves soon. Meanwhile,
[For those that don’t want to be rude, as a rule of thumb, the only people who can correct others in public are parents, teachers and where the person in question has requested that you to perform this function.]
I couldn’t agree more!
my say
And of course this blog is a long conversation. Apart from all the tweets I link, especially this evening! 😀
[Palmer doesn’t really have any options outside the Liberals.]
He doesn’tknow that. In any case Palmer bought the Liberals. They’re his party.
I know you or I wouldn’t think so, but look at it from Clive’s point of view.
Gina bought a newspaper. Clive bought a party.
Was I alone in finding Ms Barlow’s citation earlier this evening of Orwell’s weasel words just a tad ironic?
Fess,
Yes we are in the process of completing the design at the moment. It has been a bit of a learning curve because I wanted to green the design as much as possible (without going overboard) and I had to learn a fair bit about it, solar and building with hebel.
Hopefully we will have a home that is cheap to run energy wise, energy efficient, and reminiscent of a coastal seaside cottage!
Gweneth
Well said.
My best wishes, and I hope all is going well.
Dear gweneth
Ladies like your self arrive at times in our lives with words, when we most need them ,
[my say
And of course this blog is a long conversation. Apart from all the tweets I link, especially this evening! 😀 ]
It’s actually the way newspapers should be run. A running discourse on the day’s events that you can join at any time. Kinda like a soap opera, with the occasional “news” input to direct things one way or the other.
I have views on this, which I’d like to run past the Sydney Bludgers on Sunday.
It may be my last chance, seeing as the World is ending and all that.
efficient, and reminiscent of a coastal seaside cottage!
Sound s beautiful
SK
Sounds devine
[poroti
Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 8:34 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib @9107
Ooh a pattern forming.Well there is John Hewson and umm did I mention Natural Fuels ? Did I mention Stan Howard ?]
Hey, hold on sport!
You took away the unlosable Prime Ministership from the poor sod….can’t you leave him alone now after more than a decade?
gweneth,
Good to hear from you. I have noticed you are on twitter a fair bit so there is at least one upside to having chemo.
I hope that things are going as well as they could be. Sending you positive thoughts and a big hug x
All my love, Gweneth.
My say,
On PB I see-saw between conversation and writing.
I am travelling well, all things considered. I heard a great quote for Michael J Fox – if the worst really is going to happen then I would prefer not to go through it twice so I think positive.
I have been doing a lot of lurking and following the parliamentary excitement over the week. And enjoying the many wonderful contributions.
mod lib. business isn’t everthing. unions need to watch them for as the great Adam Smith wrote:
But whoever imagines … that masters rarely combine, is as ignorant of the world as of the subject.
have views on this, which I’d like to run past the Sydney Bludgers on Sunday.
Ah what a lovley thought
Wish the tardis was real so i could joi n you.
Ps did u notice a new pb from outer brisbane expressed the same idea or similar this week
vic, my say,
Fingers crossed what’s in my mind translates to reality!
Scrutineer
[Poroti @ 9080
Your analysis has parallels to New Zealand First primarily attracting hitherto Labour supporters in the Shaky Isles.]
Exactly and it is why I did not forgive Beazley for caving in to Howard. Sorry BB but ;). In sheepens land Helen Clark faced the same shite when she said she would take Tampa refugees from the Hanson wannabees like Winston Peters.She stood up to them and said that it was the right thing to do and that she would do it again. Result ? The public swung behind her. A bit of intestinal fortitude did wonders.
BB @ 9131,
If Palmer thinks he bought the Libs, he is in for a rude shock….
[Mal Brough is of aboriginal descent but does not identify himself as such]
Brough’s sister OTOH does identify as indigenous.
Gweneth
A friend of mine is finally in remission following treatment for an aggressive form of breast cancer. Her husband has just been diagnosed with lymphoma. They are both in their earliy fifties. Is that going through something twice?