The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
• Kristina Keneally will quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia, thereby initiating a by-election for her inner southern Sydney seat of Heffron, where her margin was cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at the March 2011 election. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Keneally’s favoured successor is “Michael Comninos, a former Labor government staffer”, but that party sources have also mentioned Ron Hoenig, a barrister and the mayor of Botany since 1981, and another Botany councillor, Stan Kondilios. The report also quotes Keneally saying she would “never say never” to a return to politics, but she rules out doing so at the next federal election.
• Alex Cauchi of the Wentworth Courier reports the Greens have preselected Sydney councillor Chris Harris as their candidate for the state by-election which is expected to be required in the seat of Sydney as a result of a looming legislative ban on members of parliament serving in local government. The present member for the seat is independent Clover Moore, who will seek another term as Sydney’s lord mayor in September. A looming Liberal preselection will be contested by finance broker Adrian Bartels, who fell 3.1% short of victory as the candidate at the last election, and Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard, who ran in 2003.
• Sixteen candidates have nominated for the July 21 by-election for the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, which is being followed at this dedicated post.
confessions
Yes Federal Lib conference in Melbourne. Latika is there and I am linking her tweets
Zoomster,
Is this your missing link?
http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2012/02/21/3435975.htm
[carbon emissions from 294 companies, councils and other
Especially for rummell]
top 1000
then 500
now 294
Its still a tax and Gillard still lied.
[I’m sorry, but I’m hopelessly out of the news cycle. Is there some kind of Liberal gathering atm?]
The Liberal Federal Council meeting — the twitter feed is #libfed
SK
Problem is that Cando has too much concentrated power.
[zoidlord
Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 8:02 pm | Permalink
@Confessions/9042,
We did say that newman will get what his coming back to him – it’s called Karma, and Karma can be a bitch.]
It sure is: see NSW and Qld state elections.
Not to mention the federal election to come!
BH
[I love the way Greg Combet says so enthusiastically that he was a Union man and has fought all his life for workers.]
Vote 1 Greg Combat (sic)
confessions – Newman has cheesed off the gay community with the ‘dog’ registrations, public servants with sackings, art world with dropping literature grants and now the female lobby over health care. Great for Fed Labor.
Looking at the tweets about Clive Palmer’s position on AS, it seems like he is a moderate.
Boy Palmer is not holding back
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 57s
Palmer and McIver motions were supposed to be tomorrow – Clive says self interested executive put them up tonight before he arrived. #libfed
View details]
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 4m
Clive Palmer – lib fed looks like a stalinist operation where everyone gets up and hails the leader. #libfed]
View details ·
zoidlord:
Here’s hoping.
[The Liberal Federal Council meeting — the twitter feed is #libfed]
Oh, I was trying #liefed
Poor Tone’s only got a budgie tucked away down there. So given all the talk about pythons and cobras, who’s got the trouser snake?
[now 294]
And even less since subsidiaries are counted separately. Several are BHP subsidiaries.
[Its still a tax and Gillard still lied.]
Pfft … Nonsense …
poroti
It may very well be Greg Combet PM one day
Mod Lib,
[ When you build and run your own companies, like Coalition MPs, you tend to be a little more circumspect about how you spend money. ]
Blimey eh!
I’d love you to give us a list of these successful Coalition business people. Especially the ones who built their company up from scratch!
I won’t even make it hard requesting you to list ” all” of them. Just a few will do me.
ModLib
I’m quite happy to concede to you anything you’d like about the Liberals in the past.
But that’s not the choice that will confront us in 2013, so I know you’ll be voting for Gillard.
I appreciate you don’t want to do that, and are still holding out hope that somehow you can get rid of her, and thus Abbott, and pave the way for a Turnbull resurgence, but that’s not going to happen.
Perhaps you should take a leaf out of the Ruddistas’ playbook and start your own blog, celebrating the Liberal past and singing lovesongs to Malcolm.
“Golden Oldies” might be a good title for it.
[Tom Hawkins
Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 8:05 pm | Permalink
The Liberal Federal Council meeting — the twitter feed is #libfed
Oh, I was trying #liefed]
Gillard’s account?
@Mod Lib/9056
Stop hijacking peoples posts!
victoria:
Thanks, I didn’t realise it had already started.
fiona
no, mine is dated April, but obviously that’s where I should be looking!!
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 1m
Last week Abbott said if Clive was in the party he would have to support policy, tonight Palmer said he has a free vote. #libfed]
View details ·
[Gillard’s account?]
You are always the bridesmaid never the bride. Do try harder
http://www.liberal.org.au/Abbott-Team/People/Stuart-Robert.aspx
[Following his military career, Stuart and a colleague founded an IT services firm that has since grown to be a nationwide company.
As a local, a father and a businessman, Stuart believes investing in important things like building a safer community, making better, safer local roads and protecting our waterways has never been more important to our quality of life and the future of the northern Gold Coast region]
[@latikambourke #TonyAbbott facts ” I can say ‘no’ in 32 languages”. True Fact #libfed]
August 20 2010
” I don’t rule out the possibility of legislating a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, a market based mechanism”
Author?
victoria,
The concentration of power, without checks and balances apart from law. And I’m not too confident you could exactly call him clean.
[You are always the bridesmaid never the bride. Do try harder]
Hey, I’m in a minority here, I have to amuse myself sometimes!
LOL 🙂
[I appreciate Latika tweeting details of the conference. Although i am only reading statements, i sense all is not well with the fibs]
Clive Palmer thinks he has purchased the Liberal Party. He is about to find out, like Gina Rinehart, that you have to take over completely if you want to change the culture.
Of course, I doubt whether his motion against lobbyists is as pure as he makes it out to be. I mean, if you buy the party you don’t have to worry about job titles like “Lobbyist” do you?
Trouble will come out of this. Clive could even turn against the Libs, especially if he’s called as a witness in the Ashby case, in which he has been named as one of the potential employers of James and Karen. Naturally, the Libs will disown any knowledge of it. They’ll leave him in the lurch, just like everybody else who is of no further use to them.
Interesting to see Brian Loughane talking about how their new strategy is lots of small donations. I’ll bet Clive rankled a bit at that. A million doesn’t buy you much nowadays, does it, except getting off a speeding ticket from the Gold Coast.
Would have been cheaper to pay the fine.
Scrutineer
[Looking at the tweets about Clive Palmer’s position on AS, it seems like he is a moderate.]
After 1.25 centuries plus not much has changed. “Capital” wanted cheap foreign labour whilst “Labour” were all for keeping the coolies out. Labor’s “dirty little secret” is that so much of their core constituency have been/are at heart “anti wog”. Howie did a great job at picking them up.
BH @
I watch and listen with amazement every time the libs, MSM and some here sneer about the connection between the labor party and the labour movement as if it is something to be ashamed about. They talk about the labor party not having any values and not standing for anything yet in the same breath they call on the party to renounce its roots.
Be proud, embrace it it is at the core of the labor party. The labor party and the labour movement should never be disconnected.
“I am union and I am proud “sort of thing.
Greg Combet is a great standard bearer of the movement.
Space Kidette
How did you go with solar?
[I appreciate you don’t want to do that, and are still holding out hope that somehow you can get rid of her, and thus Abbott, and pave the way for a Turnbull resurgence, but that’s not going to happen.]
ML voted for Howard, in fact lauds Howard at every opportunity.
But it was Howard who killed off the moderate arm of the Liberals, so just another of those mounting inconsistencies we continually see from ML.
BB
There is still every chance that the fibs are going to tear themselves apart at any moment
Joe6pk,
We are finalising the design of the house and as soon as we sort out the plans, I will have a chat to the solar guy. Figured it would be better with the plans.
Bushfire Bill
What time Abduls ?
[In the mid-1990s Karen and her husband established a private human resources and industrial relations consultancy and developed a strong client base throughout Australia and New Zealand. Karen undertook further studies in alternate dispute resolution and is now qualified to assist businesses and individuals with resolving disputes through negotiation and mediation.]
http://www.liberal.org.au/Abbott-Team/People/Karen-Andrews.aspx
SK:
Are you building a new home?
victoria
[poroti
It may very well be Greg Combet PM one day]
My fingers are crossed. If only because of bragging rights as after seeing him in action up close during the Wharf Dispute I told people that one day he will do a Bob Hawke and be Prime Minister.
[Space Kidette
Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 8:15 pm | Permalink
Joe6pk,
We are finalising the design of the house and as soon as we sort out the plans, I will have a chat to the solar guy. Figured it would be better with the plans.]
You know now you only have to the 9th july
BB @9079,
I love the bit about small donations.
The free market at work. Supply and demand. Let it rip etc etc etc
Small donations are all Abbott can get on the open market.
$40 a person to have dinner with him ! I suppose that is all the libs can afford to pay people.
poroti
He is my pick anyhow!
[In partnership with Bruce McWilliam he established his own law firm, Turnbull McWilliam, in 1986. In that year Turnbull defended Peter Wright, a former MI5 agent, who authored the book Spycatcher, who successfully blocked the British Government’s attempts to suppress the book’s publication, and Turnbull later wrote a book on the trial.[9] In 1987, he established an investment banking firm, Whitlam Turnbull & Co Ltd, in partnership with Neville Wran (former Labor Premier of New South Wales) and the former State Bank of New South Wales chief executive, Nicholas Whitlam (son of Gough Whitlam, former Labor Prime Minister of Australia). Whitlam parted company with the others in 1990, and, from then until 1997, when Turnbull moved to become a managing director and later a partner of Goldman Sachs, the firm operated as Turnbull & Partners Ltd.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Turnbull
When you resort to using Rainman as an example you have lost you argument. He may be a tight arse with his own money but he didn’t give a shit about how he spent public money.
from the Kouk
http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/2104-mr-abbott-how-much-is-this-going-to-cost
[he didn’t give a shit about how he spent public money.]
Which, as you know, was then channelled into his own campaign fund.
Tom Hawkins
+100/100
Wild storm here – we now have a hole right at the apex of our roof.
Not too much rain coming in but all the heat is escaping!
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
Santo Santoro says he’s never had a conflict of interest between his lobbyist interests and Lib Party exec duties. #libfed]
View details ·
[Not to mention the federal election to come!]
Hubris. Love it.