Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.

UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).

In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:

• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.

• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.

• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.

• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.

Federal preselection news:

• WA Treasurer Christian Porter’s bombshell announcement that he will seek to enter federal politics at the next election has transformed the Liberal preselection contest for the Perth hinterland seat of Pearce, where incumbent of 19 years Judi Moylan will retire at the next election. Porter entered state parliament at a February 2008 by-election and assumed the role of Attorney-General when the Barnett government came to power seven months later, winning promotion to Treasurer in December 2010. Marcus Priest of the Australian Financial Review says Porter is “often seen as part of the right of the WA Liberals”, being “an economic dry and law and order hard-liner”, but “can be socially liberal on issues such as native title”. Prior to entering politics he had been a public prosecutor, adviser to Howard government Justice Minister and WA Senator Chris Ellison and law lecturer at the University of Western Australia. The front-runner for the preselection was previously thought to have been 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth, who is planning to fight on. The West Australian reports the field also includes “two locals, Bill Crabtree and Rod Henderson”. Another contender, high-profile financial adviser Nick Bruining, has conceded Porter’s entry has left him with no chance and withdrawn.

• Richard Torbay, state independent member for Northern Tablelands, has all but been confirmed as the Nationals candidate to take on Tony Windsor in New England, with Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reporting the party has guaranteed him “freedom to speak with an independent voice on local issues”. Nationals internal polling reportedly found Torbay rated more highly in the electorate than both Windor and the other mooted Nationals contender for New England, Barnaby Joyce. Labor’s NSW state secretary, Sam Dastyari, has accused Torbay of offering to join the ALP in November 2009 if it agreed to make him Premier, shortly before Nathan Rees was dumped in favour of Kristina Keneally. The claim has been vigorously denied by Torbay, who was a member of the ALP during his days as mayor of Armidale in the 1990s. This is consistent with reporting at the time from the Daily Telegraph and Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, which indicated that approaches to Torbay were at Labor’s initiative rather than his own. (UPDATE: Fairfax further reports that John Della Bosca, who was involved in the talks with Torbay, has said Dastyari’s account is inconsistent with his own recollection).

• Sarah Henderson, former state 7:30 Report presenter and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has easily won a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection in Corangamite, polling an absolute majority in the first round. Her main rival was Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection last time. Henderson’s backers were said to include Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, while Nockles reportedly had support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer.

• Michael Sukkar, a 30-year-old tax laywer for the firm Ashurt, has emerged a surprise winner in the Liberal preselection for the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin. The presumed front-runner had been John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said to be closely associated with Ted Baillieu. In third place was Michelle Frazer, state government media and communications adviser. (UPDATE: VexNews relates that also-ran candidates Phillip Fusco, Terry Barnes, Andrew Munroe were eliminated in that order, at which point Sukkar and former Melbourne candidate Simon Olsen were tied for third. After winning a run-off against Olsen, Sukkar crucially managed to get his nose ahead of Frazer, who unlike Sukkar would not have succeeded in getting ahead of Pesutto in the final round due to a view among Sukkar’s backers that she “wasn’t up to it”.)

• Cate Faehrmann, who filled the vacancy in the New South Wales Legislative Council when Lee Rhiannon was elected to the Senate at the 2010 election, has won preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election.

Jodie Stephens of the Launceston Examiner reports the Tasmanian Liberals have selected trade and investment adviser Sally Chandler and vineyard owner Sarah Courtney as the third and fourth candidates for their Senate ticket, behind incumbents Richard Colbeck and David Bushby. Others in the preselection field were “Launceston Chamber of Commerce office manager Kristen Finnigan, Hobart Alderman Sue Hickey, previous Liberal candidate Jane Howlett, former Bass MHA David Fry and former senior Liberal adviser Don Morris”.

• The Port Macquarie News reports the candidates for the Nationals preselection to take on Rob Oakeshott in Lyne are local gastroenterologist David Gillespie, who was the candidate in 2010, and Brett Sprague, a former chiropractor and current officer in the Royal Australian Artillery. The ballot will be held on July 1. UPDATE: Another Port Macquarie News report says other starters are Port Macquarie Panthers general manager Russell Cooper, former councillor and business owner Jamie Harrison, 26-year-old IT systems engineer Aaron Mendham and Paladin Panels Wauchope owner Reg Pierce).

Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports that the LNP candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton in 2010, Malcolm Cole, is likely to be given the chance for another crack at the seat. Cole’s CV includes spells as a Courier-Mail journalist and a staffer to former Senator and factional warlord Santo Santoro.

Terry Deefholts of the Daily Examiner reports the NSW Nationals will preselect a candidate to run against Labor member Janelle Saffin in the marginal north coast seat of Page on June 30. The candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, has confirmed he will nominate, with Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson and Alumy Creek farmer Fiona Leviny also named as possible starters.

• The West Australian reports Geoff Hourn, a former lieutenant-colonel in the Australian Intelligence Corps, and Darryl Moore, an engineer, have nominated for Liberal preselection to take on Stephen Smith in Perth (UPDATE: Nikki Savva of The Australian reports this was decided on Thursday night in Moore’s favour).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8,906 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [The land war in Europe was won by Russia. Britain played a minor role. In terms of military deaths, the ratio of Russian to British deaths was around 20:1.

    At sea, Ultra made a significant difference in various naval battles, including in the Battle of the Atlantic. But even in the Battle of the Atlantic it is open to debate whether Ultra or Mr Horton made the decisive difference.]

    If Britain had not had advance knowledge of bomber raids due to Ultra, if they had not been able to dissect routine deployment orders related to German air groups (again using Ultra) and had thus lost the Battle Of Britain (ditto, only more so for the Battle of the Atlantic), there would not have been a Britain to continue the fight.

    As a result, America may not have been in the war at all.

    You can’t just isolate individual battles, comparing deaths in one to deaths in the other, and conclude that because there were more deaths in one that this was the more important battle. That’s too facile, by far, to add to your ignorance.

    Without Turing’s Ultra, Britain may well have (probably would have) lost the Battles of Britain and The Atlantic. America may well have stayed out of the war and there wouldn’t have been the need for the Bomb.

    Without having to keep troops in occupied western Europe to shield against possible British actions, and the same for North Africa and the Balkans, Hitler might have made it to Moscow (he got to the outer suburbs in any case).

    True, “Britain”did not defeat Hitler by itself, but without Britain’s obstinacy and grit in the early stages of the War – made all the more effective by ultra – Hitler may never have been defeated at all.

    You’re just extracting the “highlights” of the game, being bedazzled by the big battles later on in the Russian campaign. I’m not tryng to belittle the Russian contribution, and have never been in doubt as to the ultimate contribution that Britain made.

    But none of these massive battles might have happened had not Turing been as talented and curious enough about just how supposedly unbreakable codes could be broken, and worked out a practical way to break them on a truly industrial scale, involving literally thousands of technicians and support workers at its ultimate stage.

    The war still had to be fought… of course! But imagine if we hadn’t known virtually every move of Hitler’s armies, every disposition of his forces, every order of battle, the precise timing and location of his supply drops in the North African campaign and the Battle Of Britain.

    It was a collective effort. If the Russians hadn’t had Lend Lease trucks they might have been wiped out in the first year. They only had Lend Lease equipment because the Yanks were (covertly) still in the game. They were only still in the game because Britain was. Britain was only in it because of Turing’s work and that of his colleagues, but principally Turing’s.

    Your analysis is too simplistic.

  2. Re the Greens attitude to AS:

    Been following the conversation today. I think everyone recognises that there’s no easy solution, but put in as simple a way as possible:

    1. Push factors outweigh pull factors.
    2. That doesn’t discount the fact that Australia is an attractive destination.
    3. You get on a boat and get picked up, the way things are, and there’s a good chance you’ll end up here eventually. Which makes coming by boat attractive.
    4. Therefore, on-shore processing will encourage boat trips, and enable boat smugglers.

    We can’t make the world a peaceful place. There aren’t many effective ways we can pressure Indonesia. Those are the two things we can’t control.

    The one thing we can do, at least as far as arrivals by boat are concerned, is break the link. If there’s no direct line between getting on a boat and being accepted in this country, the attractiveness of a boat trip disappears.

    Couple that with a preference for processing asylum seekers from camps in Malaysia, and there you have it.

    If the choice is between the Greens “Oh well, we can’t do anything about boats sinking, how sad,” and the ALP‘s “I think we can do something about the boats, which will stop them coming,” I know which one I’m going to back.

    ***

    The Coalition approach is useless. It’s basically saying, “We’ll process them in Nauru, up to a point. But if any more than a certain number come, those ones can get nicked, we wash our hands of them.”

    The Greens approach seems to be, “Come one, come all! If some of them drown on the way, never mind, there’s plenty more where they came from.”

  3. The only reason Boerwar has formed an opinion on Alan Turing, of whom he knows so little that he can’t even get his name right, is so he can play his one-note piano of Britain-deserves-no-credit-for-anything.

  4. William @ 8706

    The only reason Boerwar has formed an opinion on Alan Turing, of whom he knows so little that he can’t even get his name right, is so he can play his one-note piano of Britain-deserves-no-credit-for-anything.

    Well William, something we agree on.

    I might add that Boerwar’s delivery with an air of moral superiority is also very off-putting.

  5. Mr. Justice Flick’s final bitch slap:

    [The oral submissions advanced by Ms Jackson on her own behalf on Friday 8 June 2012 only reinforce the conclusion reached that:

    * the Honourable Michael Moore should be appointed as administrator; and

    * it is appropriate that all offices, including those held by Ms Jackson, be vacated. ]

    It’s about as comprehensive a finding against Jackson as you’d think would be possible.

    She picked the wrong bloke to try and charm this time.

  6. Seasprite went with projection:

    [the hypocrisy of the Greens are on display with the above post of Astrobleme, guytaur and FB, they are not the humanitarians they make themselves out to be.]

    I don’t pretend to know whether you care about people drowning off the north western coast of Australia or not, or if you do, how much, in what ways or anything else. What I am confident about is that your sentiments on the matter, whatever they are, bear no relationship at all to your polemic here. That is driven by something else entirely — the desire to protect the ALP’s political position. You believe that if the Malaysia Solution were adopted, then the perception that your party is “weak on border security” or “liable to flood the country with ill-deserving asylum shoppers” or “likely to let in too many Muslims or terrorists or both” will be undermined in time for the 2013 election. You know full well that the Liberals aren’t going to play ball on this one — they’ve got your party by the short and curlies on this one, so you are trying moral blackmail on us. It’s a nice bonus that instead of being defensive about sounding like Howard Mark2 and perhaps a bigot — something you’d see as unhelpful if not offensive, you get to posture as some sort of humanitarian — even as you propose punishing both vulnerable people who make a desperate bid for relief and those you hope to discourage whom you invite to accept their fate.

    It’s utterly silly of course. There is no current within the Greens who is moved by your special pleading on behalf of your party. We feel genuinely sorry that you find yourself defending your party’s tilt at neutralising the bigot vote — though not as sorry as we feel for those whose lives are so wretched that a dangerous passage seems to them a step worth taking. What’s most paradoxical is that every time you run this troll, you open up your right flank to criticism. After all, every boat is a failure, as Gillard said herself. In your heart of hearts you know that short of a fundamental change of policy in favour of humane dealing or an unforeseeable imporvement in the countries of origin of these people, you cannot stop the boats.

    Nobody who genuinely believes their enemies are indifferent to people drowning as a result of getting onto unseaworthy vessels is going to lead with that claim. It would be utterly pointless. You can only hope for the bullying to work if you belive it’s a lie. That is where you are today. Slandering those who care, in the service of a party that is pandering to bigots so you can implement a policy that will prejudice the lives of the vulnerable in order to keep alive your hopes of winning an election so you can do more of the same.

    I really do hope you don’t care about people drowning off the coast of North West Australia, because if you really do, considering your part in that ethical departure would surely be an extraordinary existential pain.

  7. my say,

    what is the PM meant to do? clone herself!, with that sort of negativity from the press, and the conservatives say that the media is bias towards the Govt. hah!

    This is where the Ruddstoration really comes from the press wanting to create the news rather than report it

  8. [you can blame the Greens all you like Centre but there’s only one person responsible for the death of an asylum seeker at sea, the asylum seeker themselves]

    How can people say “that’s the risk they took” when a boat goes down with children on board. Don’t we have a responsibility to protect the kids from foolhardy behaviour on the part of their parents or guardians? Has our society sunk to that subterranean level?

  9. [I might add that Boerwar’s delivery with an air of moral superiority is also very off-putting.]

    I used the words “pompous bullshit” in my last post but deleted them at the last moment in the interests of Blog niceness.

  10. [KJackson must have got advice that her tactics were going to work. Why else would she even attempt them?]

    She is delusional

  11. bemused
    Posted Saturday, June 23, 2012 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    Well William, something we agree on.

    I might add that Boerwar’s delivery with an air of moral superiority is also very off-putting.

    Something I agree with too.

  12. KJackson must have got advice that her tactics were going to work. Why else would she even attempt them?

    A quote from Macbeth comes to mind – “I am in blood steeped in so far that should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o’er.” There’s no way back for her, forward to oblivion is her only option.

  13. Bushfire Bill @ 8718

    I used the words “pompous bullshit” in my last post but deleted them at the last moment in the interests of Blog niceness.

    Yes, that too. 👿

  14. If Alan Turing, for nothing else, must be commended for the Turing machine. It forms the basis for the algorithmic approach to logic.

  15. [How can people say “that’s the risk they took” when a boat goes down with children on board. Don’t we have a responsibility to protect the kids from foolhardy behaviour on the part of their parents or guardians? Has our society sunk to that subterranean level?]

    It’s not our fault as a nation that were are a refugee magnet. Our government has tried to do something about it, clumsily I’ll admit, but there was evidence the Malaysian was already working in anticipation of its full implementation.

    This is what Abbott does not want.

    As to the Greens, their fairies-in-the-garden attitude towards the romanticised “Boat people” is truly sickening.

    They have no policy for regulating or regularising boat people traffic, only a suggestion as to how they should be treated when, and IF, they make it here.

    The last lot that had flown from Tehran, via Dubai to Jakarta did it for me. Once, maybe, there were genuine refugees, but now the mix is too polluted with chancers and very well developed senses of entitlement.

    Everything becomes corrupted eventually. Boat People have finally reached this stage. It’s simply seen by too many as an easy option.

    I say “seen as”. It’s not of course, it’s dangerous and nasty, but the perception among intending boat people is that it’s a free ride to citizenship not only for themselves, but eventually for their families, to the detriment of others who have no hope of ever being able to raise the money or just don’t want to take the risk.

    As arriving by boat is the only way to get here if you can’t get a visa through normal channels, no romantic or moral values should be attached to it, as the Greens seem to do. Once maybe, boat people were more genuine than not, but not now.

  16. If you’re in the market for some Alan-Turing-might-as-well-have-spent-the-war-playing-Dungeons-and-Dragons, conservative military historian John Keegan’s tome Intelligence in War: Knowledge of the Enemy from Napoleon to al-Qaeda concludes that “in combat, willpower always counts for more than foreknowledge”. You can read a riposte from the CIA here. But they would say that, wouldn’t they.

  17. Augustas,
    Of course bak years ago

    It would of been, pm has to go to g 7 meeting unfortunatley tis clashes with the olympic

    Dinner,

    See how easy it is, done 🙂 🙂

  18. Boerwar is very simplistic in his use of casualties as a measure of military achievement.

    They are perhaps a measure of suffering, but not much more.

    The British and American forces were less willing to accept casualties and sought alternatives such as air and naval power.

    I think it was the movie ‘Patton’ that has Patton delivering a pep talk to troops in which he points out that the object is ‘not to die for your country but to help the other poor bastard to die for his’ or wtte.

  19. People in dire circumstances weigh up the risks of alternative courses of action.

    They do what they have to do to survive and reach a place which offers the highest probability of a safe haven where they can live their lives with dignity and provide the best future for themselves and their children.

    They make as rational a choice as they can given their circumstances. They decide what is in their best interests to achieve their goal of security and a life with a future.

    They understand that by embarking on a sea journey fraught with danger that they bear a risk of dying.

    To think otherwise is the height of condescension.

  20. my say

    exactly! report the news, not make it up as you go, I refered to Murdoch press as being nothing good for except lining the bottom of my daughers Guinea Pig cage but was reminded that could constitute cruelty to animals.

  21. Katter strikes like a cobra. Seems Mr. Torbay is a serial offender at getting the “who approached whom” question arse-about.

    Remarkable as much for Phil Coorey NOT writing about Ruddstoration as for Katters views:

    [Nationals recruit was keen on my party, Katter claims
    THE federal independent MP, Bob Katter, has questioned the credibility of the Nationals’ star recruit, Richard Torbay, saying Mr Torbay first approached him wanting to join his political party.

    Mr Torbay, the state independent for the seat of Northern Tablelands since 1999, is seeking Nationals preselection to take on the federal independent, Tony Windsor, in the seat of New England.

    In an interview with the Herald online last week, Mr Torbay suggested Mr Katter had approached him to join his fledgling Katter’s Australian Party, which won two seats at the Queensland state election.

    ”I’ve had a number of approaches. The Nationals were not the only approach,” Mr Torbay said. ”There were approaches from the Liberals. I also had a meeting with Bob Katter after his party was formed.”

    Mr Katter told the Herald yesterday that Mr Torbay had expressed an interest in joining his party during a conversation they were having about Mr Windsor voting with the government on a live cattle bill.

    Mr Katter said he was unhappy at Mr Torbay’s recent inference that it was he who had approached Mr Torbay and he wanted to set the record straight.

    ”He has broken the integrity of that conversation,” he said as he justified his decision to speak out.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/nationals-recruit-was-keen-on-my-party-katter-claims-20120622-20tgd.html#ixzz1ycW3R9Ze

  22. 8725 – Bushfire Bill

    No disagreement BB especially this

    [As to the Greens, their fairies-in-the-garden attitude towards the romanticised “Boat people” is truly sickening.]

  23. bemused,

    Churchills darkest hour, when he ordered the sinking of French ships in an North African harbour with crew aboard to prevent the Germans getting their hands on them.

  24. [ As to the Greens, their fairies-in-the-garden attitude towards the romanticised “Boat people” is truly sickening. ]

    And to think some consider them a chance to be a mainstream party. Lucky it’s easy to get the 15% who live in fairyland.

  25. O.K. So we’ve sorted the asylum seeker conundrum, WW2, how the ALP will get back next election, how to reconcile the Eurozone crisis, the U.S. politico-economic crisis. Can we go to bed now?

  26. fran

    all that, and in the end, no solution or hint of one.

    Just that we’re supposed to believe the Greens care about people drowning more than anyone from the ALP does, because the Greens are humanitarian and members of the ALP – every single last one of them – are only driven by political considerations.

    (I’m interested – a few of my branch members, over the years, have left and become Green members. Do they go through some kind of initiation ceremony, where the ‘purely political’ parts of their brain are magically changed? Or do you assume that all the decent people have left the ALP already, leaving only us dregs who have swallowed the party manual whole?)

    Still, at the end of the day, political drone without any trace of real human feeling though I may be, I’d rather belong to a party where people pretend, for purely political advantage of course, to care about people dying and try to do something to prevent it, than one which watches people drown whilst basking in the glow of their moral superiority…oh, and lecturing the drowning about taking foolish and irresponsible risks.

    If seeking political advantage leads to better outcomes than having ethics, I’ll go with the first option every time.

  27. [They understand that by embarking on a sea journey fraught with danger that they bear a risk of dying.]

    I doubt that. Time and time again we see people board overloaded boats and drown in the process. They are presumably all rational people, OR they have been hoodwinked by people smugglers.

    You can’t romanticise what amounts to the only practical method of getting here if you don’t have a visa.

    Once, maybe, boat people were noble refugees. Nowadays they seem to consist in substantial measure of well-heeled opportunists.

    There are no two ways about it: the Greens policy relies on people making the trip by boat. They only quibble about what to do with them when they arrive.

    The Greens either welcome the deaths of innocents on leaky boats or dismiss them as irrelevant.

  28. Augustus

    I thought that was when – from the Enigma transcripts – he knew that Coventy was going to be bombed, but kept that secret so that the Germans didn’t realise the code had been broken.

  29. [O.K. So we’ve sorted the asylum seeker conundrum, WW2, how the ALP will get back next election, how to reconcile the Eurozone crisis, the U.S. politico-economic crisis. Can we go to bed now?]

    Now… can anyone tell me again what they think about gay marriage?

  30. Goodnight everyone. Let’s hope that Australians never have the need to find asylum and be accepted as refugees in another land.

  31. HSO,

    “O.K. So we’ve sorted the asylum seeker conundrum, WW2, how the ALP will get back next election, how to reconcile the Eurozone crisis, the U.S. politico-economic crisis. Can we go to bed now?”

    Better than that other topic that usually pops up this time of night, for me personally I’ve enjoyed tonights discussions.

  32. Bilbo,

    I don’t do war games. However, the principles that Alan espoused do form the basis for interactive play.

    Alan Turing did his stuff in the forties. I first got exposed to it in the seventies and I have no trouble at all recognizing how games developed.

    Ask the current-day programmers. Sad to say, not too many would no the basis of discrete theory and algorithms. Fewer less would no how to validate their programs.

  33. Augustus

    It has been a fairly civilised discussion this evening.

    On that note, i call it a night. Catch you guys on the flipside

  34. peg

    [They understand that by embarking on a sea journey fraught with danger that they bear a risk of dying.]

    Given the reported surprise of some of those about to embark on said journey when confronted with their form of transport, I’m not sure that holds true.

    There’s a number of reports – from AS who have successfully settled here – that they had no idea that a boat journey was involved until they saw the boat.

    And, of course, many of them were not sure which country they were going to end up in, either.

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