GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
• WA Treasurer Christian Porter’s bombshell announcement that he will seek to enter federal politics at the next election has transformed the Liberal preselection contest for the Perth hinterland seat of Pearce, where incumbent of 19 years Judi Moylan will retire at the next election. Porter entered state parliament at a February 2008 by-election and assumed the role of Attorney-General when the Barnett government came to power seven months later, winning promotion to Treasurer in December 2010. Marcus Priest of the Australian Financial Review says Porter is “often seen as part of the right of the WA Liberals”, being “an economic dry and law and order hard-liner”, but “can be socially liberal on issues such as native title”. Prior to entering politics he had been a public prosecutor, adviser to Howard government Justice Minister and WA Senator Chris Ellison and law lecturer at the University of Western Australia. The front-runner for the preselection was previously thought to have been 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth, who is planning to fight on. The West Australian reports the field also includes “two locals, Bill Crabtree and Rod Henderson”. Another contender, high-profile financial adviser Nick Bruining, has conceded Porter’s entry has left him with no chance and withdrawn.
• Richard Torbay, state independent member for Northern Tablelands, has all but been confirmed as the Nationals candidate to take on Tony Windsor in New England, with Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reporting the party has guaranteed him “freedom to speak with an independent voice on local issues”. Nationals internal polling reportedly found Torbay rated more highly in the electorate than both Windor and the other mooted Nationals contender for New England, Barnaby Joyce. Labor’s NSW state secretary, Sam Dastyari, has accused Torbay of offering to join the ALP in November 2009 if it agreed to make him Premier, shortly before Nathan Rees was dumped in favour of Kristina Keneally. The claim has been vigorously denied by Torbay, who was a member of the ALP during his days as mayor of Armidale in the 1990s. This is consistent with reporting at the time from the Daily Telegraph and Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, which indicated that approaches to Torbay were at Labor’s initiative rather than his own. (UPDATE: Fairfax further reports that John Della Bosca, who was involved in the talks with Torbay, has said Dastyari’s account is inconsistent with his own recollection).
• Sarah Henderson, former state 7:30 Report presenter and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has easily won a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection in Corangamite, polling an absolute majority in the first round. Her main rival was Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection last time. Henderson’s backers were said to include Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, while Nockles reportedly had support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer.
• Michael Sukkar, a 30-year-old tax laywer for the firm Ashurt, has emerged a surprise winner in the Liberal preselection for the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin. The presumed front-runner had been John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said to be closely associated with Ted Baillieu. In third place was Michelle Frazer, state government media and communications adviser. (UPDATE: VexNews relates that also-ran candidates Phillip Fusco, Terry Barnes, Andrew Munroe were eliminated in that order, at which point Sukkar and former Melbourne candidate Simon Olsen were tied for third. After winning a run-off against Olsen, Sukkar crucially managed to get his nose ahead of Frazer, who unlike Sukkar would not have succeeded in getting ahead of Pesutto in the final round due to a view among Sukkar’s backers that she “wasn’t up to it”.)
• Cate Faehrmann, who filled the vacancy in the New South Wales Legislative Council when Lee Rhiannon was elected to the Senate at the 2010 election, has won preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election.
• Jodie Stephens of the Launceston Examiner reports the Tasmanian Liberals have selected trade and investment adviser Sally Chandler and vineyard owner Sarah Courtney as the third and fourth candidates for their Senate ticket, behind incumbents Richard Colbeck and David Bushby. Others in the preselection field were “Launceston Chamber of Commerce office manager Kristen Finnigan, Hobart Alderman Sue Hickey, previous Liberal candidate Jane Howlett, former Bass MHA David Fry and former senior Liberal adviser Don Morris”.
• The Port Macquarie News reports the candidates for the Nationals preselection to take on Rob Oakeshott in Lyne are local gastroenterologist David Gillespie, who was the candidate in 2010, and Brett Sprague, a former chiropractor and current officer in the Royal Australian Artillery. The ballot will be held on July 1. UPDATE: Another Port Macquarie News report says other starters are Port Macquarie Panthers general manager Russell Cooper, former councillor and business owner Jamie Harrison, 26-year-old IT systems engineer Aaron Mendham and Paladin Panels Wauchope owner Reg Pierce).
• Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports that the LNP candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton in 2010, Malcolm Cole, is likely to be given the chance for another crack at the seat. Cole’s CV includes spells as a Courier-Mail journalist and a staffer to former Senator and factional warlord Santo Santoro.
• Terry Deefholts of the Daily Examiner reports the NSW Nationals will preselect a candidate to run against Labor member Janelle Saffin in the marginal north coast seat of Page on June 30. The candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, has confirmed he will nominate, with Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson and Alumy Creek farmer Fiona Leviny also named as possible starters.
• The West Australian reports Geoff Hourn, a former lieutenant-colonel in the Australian Intelligence Corps, and Darryl Moore, an engineer, have nominated for Liberal preselection to take on Stephen Smith in Perth (UPDATE: Nikki Savva of The Australian reports this was decided on Thursday night in Moore’s favour).
The overwhelming concern when it comes to Refugees, is the saving of lives, no matter how they choose to come hear.
Any “solution” to how takle the Refugee situation needs to have that consideration as first and foremost. We should only persue policies most likely to acheive that.
zoomster
[I thought that was when – from the Enigma transcripts – he knew that Coventy was going to be bombed, but kept that secret so that the Germans didn’t realise the code had been ]
Churchill to his credit had children removed from coventry before the known bombing.
2 years … Not a bad run, given the circumstance
Polls need to improve quickly!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRMz8fKkG2g&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Night Vic
OK, Greens and Noalition, how about giving the Malaysian solution a go? It can’t be any worse than the current stuff.
[If seeking political advantage leads to better outcomes than having ethics, I’ll go with the first option every time.]
Disingenuous, as earlier today you admitted that winning was all that mattered to you. I find that regrettable. Seeing reason and human welfare triumph is what matters to me. If I have to be on the losing side to be on the side of reason and humanity, then I’ll take that option every time.
True William but they are still worth seeing live, as I will be when they come to Oz soon.
Basically it is one last chance to pay homage to Brian. He has always been the heart and soul of the Beach Boys.
Just get a kick ass band behind them (like the one Brian had for his Pet Sounds tour) and let the harmonies roll on.
Sadly it appears they will be playing Kokomo.
zoomster
“And, of course, many of them were not sure which country they were going to end up in, either.”
So! does that mean that the AS are more desperate to leave Indonesia than desperate to reach Australia, which actually changes how we think about the situation.
Two items that Boerwar has chosen to ignore in his piece.
1. The Russians had plenty of intelligence warning that a German invasion was imminent – from their own spies such as Richard Sorge and also passed on to them by the British. Stalin chose to ignore this advice with catastrophic results after 22 June 1941.
2. The ratio of Soviet war deaths would not have been so high if they had not beenso supremely wasteful of their mens lives through such things as futile frontalassaults or the use of NKVD columns patrolling the rear guard so there could be no retreat. Admittedly they also lost a huge number taken prisoners by the Germans who treated them abominably.
Augustus @ 8735
And your alternative was?
I’ll go too, Henry – as I did both nights in Melbourne during each of Brian’s Pet Sounds and Smile tours – but with my eyes open.
Royal Ascot is on CH 7 now,for anyone intrested
Rather confusing alot of people on PB, how about you guys/girls go and watch some WW2 HD Doccos and sort yourself out, rather than arguing on PB 🙂
Do you lot realise just how many people are giving us of their extensive knowledge on PB?
Look behind the opinions posted and think about what knowledge lies behind. Not too much wisdom, sad to say.
Whatever your judgement, how about just rolling with the flow? We need no agro.
A truly Delphic post by TBLD.
But what does it all mean?
If Black Caviar wins it will be despite the Carbon Tax.
If she loses it will be because of it.
Ms Grattan’s bile:
WHEN she replaced Kevin Rudd – two years ago tomorrow – Julia Gillard immediately nominated border control as one of the problems she pledged to tackle.
Thursday’s drowning tragedy is a wrenching reminder of her failure to fulfil that pledge. While she can argue immovable obstacles have stood in her way – most dramatically, the High Court’s unexpected dismissal of the so-called Malaysia solution, and then Tony Abbott’s unwillingness to cut a deal on offshore processing – her inability to deliver is symptomatic of the wider difficulties that have beset her leadership.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/two-years-of-struggle-and-little-is-tipped-to-change-20120622-20tua.html#ixzz1ycdAl4jI
According to Ms Grattan the PMoA is personally responsible for recent events off Christmas Island. I intend canceling my subscription to The Age from Monday on the basis of this nonsense.
If we had started the Malaysian approach in 2005, then all the refugees in Malaysia would currently have been resettled safely in Australia and new arrivals would be spending only a few weeks undergoing UNHCR processing before being safely flown to Australia at no cost to them.
I know why the Abbott Liberals say no to this but the Greens are just being misled by some narrow legalistic and inhuman reading of international law.
BB,
I oracle zilch. I just wish PB peeps know what they are getting, rather than bitching.
However, I do understand that the word “wisdom” inspires terror to many.
[I refered to Murdoch press as being nothing good for except lining the bottom of my daughers Guinea Pig cage but was reminded that could constitute cruelty to animals.]
I find it amusing sometimes to see what article or whose picture ends up in the Pseph family Guinea Pig cage or at the bottom of the rabbit’s toilet. The rabbit is currently pooping on The Age promotional of an heroic Napoleon on horseback.
My calculations are that right about now, about as many boat people have died from getting on boats as would have been sent to Malaysia alive, if the Malaysian Solution had been allowed bgy the High Court, the Greens and the Coalition.
Somuch better to drown as a noble political refugee at sea than be inevitably whipped in a Malaysian jail as a common criminal.
BC is carrying the CT in her bags. Tony Abbott says …
fran
[Disingenuous, as earlier today you admitted that winning was all that mattered to you.]
Er, I’ve never said that. Please don’t verbal me.
You can check back. An apology would be nice.
[Seeing reason and human welfare triumph is what matters to me.]
Good, then you’ll want to find a way to prevent unnecessary deaths.
[If I have to be on the losing side to be on the side of reason and humanity, then I’ll take that option every time.]
Well, you don’t. You could join the Labor party – we might win – and then you’ll not only be on the winning side, but also be on the side of reason and humanity.
(Sorry, but I can’t even begin to work out how accepting people drowning has anything to do with reason or humanity).
Augustus
[So! does that mean that the AS are more desperate to leave Indonesia than desperate to reach Australia, which actually changes how we think about the situation.]
No. They pay for their package (from the accounts I’ve read, although of course not all AS go through exactly the same process) at their first point of refuge, usually just across the Afghani or Iraqi border (in some cases, a journey of about 50k from their starting point).
They’re then in the hands of the people smugglers. It is very like a package tour (I’m sure nowhere as comfortable) in that they go where they’re told. Often they don’t even know which country they’re in while they’re waiting (they don’t speak the language). Sometimes they’re not sure which country they’re going to, either.
These trips are of relatively short duration, only a matter of weeks or months.
So it’s not a matter of being desperate to get out of Indonesia (or wherever). It’s a case of waiting until the people smugglers send them on the next stage of their journey.
bemused
I’m not saying Chuchill had an alternative it was either the Germans had access to more naval power with the additions to their own fleet or steps were taken to prevent it, war forces us to make choices we rather wouldn’t ordinarily make.
Zoidlord no one is arguing really, it just seems that PB has turned into an open forum tonight, the polls are flat and that other conversation has past its use by date.
I will add to my last post that, far from thinking winning is all that matters, I thought it would have been worth losing the Tampa election over a stance of principle (but Beazley wasn’t quite so long sighted).
Rossmore @ 8767
The Gillard Government response started and ended at the Malaysian solution – they have blamed Abbott since for his intransigence but the lack of any further policy formulation indicates that they have no biscuits left in that barrell.
[I know why the Abbott Liberals say no to this but the Greens are just being misled by some narrow legalistic and inhuman reading of international law.]
The law saved 800 boat people from an uncomfortable time in Malaysia, but condemned an equal number to a miserable death by drowning.
We have destroyed 800 lives in a good cause.
That sounds fair.
Eff me, how are 7 going to fill the time between now and when Black Caviar races?
Show each of her previous 21 wins?
Henry,
75 minutes. Time to address your nearest wine.
[The Gillard Government response started and ended at the Malaysian solution – they have blamed Abbott since for his intransigence but the lack of any further policy formulation indicates that they have no biscuits left in that barrell.]
Well what would YOU do, idiot?
Tell us your magic formula to stop people paying to get here and drowning in the process.
And don’t mention Nauru, as you have to get here first by boat to get sent there.
How long do Bludgers think it will be before Steve Lewis finds himself on the scrapheap and Mordock’s lackies suddenly find he was a loner and they had no idea of the how and when of the stories he wrote for them.
Funny to think The Beach Boys considered renaming themselves “Beach” back in the 70’s as they felt they had outgrown the “Boys” aspect.
I’m down to the cooking Red now TBLD. Desperate times…
@BB/8780
Getting there via the food catering company.
Pardon me! It is the START of the Asian environmental approach.
Henry,
Scorpio is trying to get me drunk on a bottle or two on white.We have exhausted the cask of Lexia.
In the 4 Corners program on people smuggling a few weeks back,there seemed to be a very strong suggestion that there were Australian residents paying for their relatives or loved ones to join these boats – two in particular – the woman waiting for her fiancee and the man waiting for his brother and his brother’s family. If this is indeed the case,this would appear that the legitimate immigration system is being circumvented and the ‘refugee’ case used when other immigration means exist.
If such payments do occur, would it not be possible to investigate further and possibly prosecute the Australian residents making payments. This in itself may deter some from making the voyage as there would not be the assistance given at this end.
[HaveAchat
Posted Saturday, June 23, 2012 at 11:31 pm | Permalink
How long do Bludgers think it will be before Steve Lewis finds himself on the scrapheap and Mordock’s lackies suddenly find he was a loner and they had no idea of the how and when of the stories he wrote for them.]
Steve Lewis is a sole rogue reporter
So the The Australian newspaper is set to lose $20m this financial year.
Wow. Let’s see, axe Paul Kelly, PvO, Chris Pearson and Shanners and there’s at least a couple of million saved right there.
In fact get rid of them all, employ work experience kids and just keep Megalogenius.
Scorpio is my favourite constellation…
Bushfire Bill @ 8780
Added to which you know that you will ultimately end up in Australia so where is the disincentive to the boat ride?
BB @ 8780
[Well what would YOU do, idiot?]
For starters I don’t have a Department of Immigration with hundreds if not thousands of people paid to possibly come up a solution.
Secondly, I am not the Minister of Immigration so it is not my job to provide an answer.
BB, have you got an answer beyond parrotting a government policy that has reached a political impasse?
blackburnseph@8787
didn’t the Hawke Govt. have the family reunion program which in effect remove just this situation
[Pardon me! It is the START of the Asian environmental approach]
Err??
blackburnpseph
One of the common patterns of behaviour is for the family to band together and pool their cash to send one of their members to Australia (or similar) via people smugglers.
It’s usually a young single male whose chosen (hence the disproportionate number of refugees from that demographic).
The idea is that, once they get here, they send money back so that further family members can come.
Of course, once you have a number of family members here, it gets easier and cheaper, because those remaining can come here under the family reunion program.
Augustus @ 8793
I assume Family Reunion still exists – one of my work colleagues sponsored her parents migrating from China. If so,why not use it?
Henry
it’s even more amusing to think about those geniuses lecturing the government about finances, whilst the company they work for loses millions….
Henry
[Eff me, how are 7 going to fill the time between now and when Black Caviar races?
Show each of her previous 21 wins?]
Just like they do here ,they are showing every race .
blackburnpseph,
I didn’t know if it was cancelled under the Howard regime, and fair comment, why not use it, but! do they know it exists.
blackburn
[The Gillard Government response started and ended at the Malaysian solution – they have blamed Abbott since for his intransigence but the lack of any further policy formulation indicates that they have no biscuits left in that barrell.]
I know its hard to keep up, but since the HC loss, the government has rightly pointed to the consequence of Abbott’s intransigence, but also implemented many aspects of onshore processing, including moving detainees (esp families) into community detention. There are also programs for homestay style arrangements for refugees, and substantial support for the majority found to be genuine refugees.
Too bad if you were aligned with the Tamil Tigers before you fled here, or have form in other jurisdictions, cause that means you don’t get residence on character grounds. A long detention awaits, or resettlement on a knock-for-knock basis with some friendly nations.
Not quite the “tow ém back” policy based on Abbott’s boatphone commands you seem to be supporting, but humane in its own way.
What we have now is a sort of managed Green policy – they should be and are happy, as can be seen by the “no change” arguments being promoted here and elsewhere