GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
• WA Treasurer Christian Porter’s bombshell announcement that he will seek to enter federal politics at the next election has transformed the Liberal preselection contest for the Perth hinterland seat of Pearce, where incumbent of 19 years Judi Moylan will retire at the next election. Porter entered state parliament at a February 2008 by-election and assumed the role of Attorney-General when the Barnett government came to power seven months later, winning promotion to Treasurer in December 2010. Marcus Priest of the Australian Financial Review says Porter is “often seen as part of the right of the WA Liberals”, being “an economic dry and law and order hard-liner”, but “can be socially liberal on issues such as native title”. Prior to entering politics he had been a public prosecutor, adviser to Howard government Justice Minister and WA Senator Chris Ellison and law lecturer at the University of Western Australia. The front-runner for the preselection was previously thought to have been 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth, who is planning to fight on. The West Australian reports the field also includes “two locals, Bill Crabtree and Rod Henderson”. Another contender, high-profile financial adviser Nick Bruining, has conceded Porter’s entry has left him with no chance and withdrawn.
• Richard Torbay, state independent member for Northern Tablelands, has all but been confirmed as the Nationals candidate to take on Tony Windsor in New England, with Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reporting the party has guaranteed him “freedom to speak with an independent voice on local issues”. Nationals internal polling reportedly found Torbay rated more highly in the electorate than both Windor and the other mooted Nationals contender for New England, Barnaby Joyce. Labor’s NSW state secretary, Sam Dastyari, has accused Torbay of offering to join the ALP in November 2009 if it agreed to make him Premier, shortly before Nathan Rees was dumped in favour of Kristina Keneally. The claim has been vigorously denied by Torbay, who was a member of the ALP during his days as mayor of Armidale in the 1990s. This is consistent with reporting at the time from the Daily Telegraph and Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, which indicated that approaches to Torbay were at Labor’s initiative rather than his own. (UPDATE: Fairfax further reports that John Della Bosca, who was involved in the talks with Torbay, has said Dastyari’s account is inconsistent with his own recollection).
• Sarah Henderson, former state 7:30 Report presenter and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has easily won a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection in Corangamite, polling an absolute majority in the first round. Her main rival was Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection last time. Henderson’s backers were said to include Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, while Nockles reportedly had support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer.
• Michael Sukkar, a 30-year-old tax laywer for the firm Ashurt, has emerged a surprise winner in the Liberal preselection for the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin. The presumed front-runner had been John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said to be closely associated with Ted Baillieu. In third place was Michelle Frazer, state government media and communications adviser. (UPDATE: VexNews relates that also-ran candidates Phillip Fusco, Terry Barnes, Andrew Munroe were eliminated in that order, at which point Sukkar and former Melbourne candidate Simon Olsen were tied for third. After winning a run-off against Olsen, Sukkar crucially managed to get his nose ahead of Frazer, who unlike Sukkar would not have succeeded in getting ahead of Pesutto in the final round due to a view among Sukkar’s backers that she “wasn’t up to it”.)
• Cate Faehrmann, who filled the vacancy in the New South Wales Legislative Council when Lee Rhiannon was elected to the Senate at the 2010 election, has won preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election.
• Jodie Stephens of the Launceston Examiner reports the Tasmanian Liberals have selected trade and investment adviser Sally Chandler and vineyard owner Sarah Courtney as the third and fourth candidates for their Senate ticket, behind incumbents Richard Colbeck and David Bushby. Others in the preselection field were “Launceston Chamber of Commerce office manager Kristen Finnigan, Hobart Alderman Sue Hickey, previous Liberal candidate Jane Howlett, former Bass MHA David Fry and former senior Liberal adviser Don Morris”.
• The Port Macquarie News reports the candidates for the Nationals preselection to take on Rob Oakeshott in Lyne are local gastroenterologist David Gillespie, who was the candidate in 2010, and Brett Sprague, a former chiropractor and current officer in the Royal Australian Artillery. The ballot will be held on July 1. UPDATE: Another Port Macquarie News report says other starters are Port Macquarie Panthers general manager Russell Cooper, former councillor and business owner Jamie Harrison, 26-year-old IT systems engineer Aaron Mendham and Paladin Panels Wauchope owner Reg Pierce).
• Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports that the LNP candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton in 2010, Malcolm Cole, is likely to be given the chance for another crack at the seat. Cole’s CV includes spells as a Courier-Mail journalist and a staffer to former Senator and factional warlord Santo Santoro.
• Terry Deefholts of the Daily Examiner reports the NSW Nationals will preselect a candidate to run against Labor member Janelle Saffin in the marginal north coast seat of Page on June 30. The candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, has confirmed he will nominate, with Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson and Alumy Creek farmer Fiona Leviny also named as possible starters.
• The West Australian reports Geoff Hourn, a former lieutenant-colonel in the Australian Intelligence Corps, and Darryl Moore, an engineer, have nominated for Liberal preselection to take on Stephen Smith in Perth (UPDATE: Nikki Savva of The Australian reports this was decided on Thursday night in Moore’s favour).
well thats a good enough reason to go to bed. night all.
The flatness continues …
[The flatness continues …]
For now.
And so the march backwards continues.
The New South Wales Education Department has been condemned for abolishing a unit dedicated to providing drug prevention programs and advice.
Greg Prior, the deputy director-general of schools, has confirmed the drug education unit has been disbanded, along with six positions.
Why are Right Wingers just such awful human beings?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-16/anger-as-nsw-drug-education-unit-abolished/4074448
Cate Faehrmann being the candidate would require a second vacancy in the same MLC seat as Lee Riannon (elected 2007 and thus expires in 2015) also vacated for the Senate. Is that a record for vacancies?
From previous:
[Kevin Bonham Trivia Question.
OK, so what was the event that happened in 1984 that made this unlikely to happen again? (increasing the number of seats from 125 to 148?)]
Yep. If there are more seats then there is somewhat more chance to have seats change hands in both directions. Not enough to explain the before/after difference in the rate of it happening by itself – that could be partly just luck, or could have something to do with mostly close-ish elections recently.
Gokd night sad spurr
Cannot
u e er see anythi g positive in your life
It was back nly in feb when some polls had us 15/18
Behind.
Time to confess being liberal
All Gillard needs to do is increase the Labor vote by the same amount every month until the next election and Labor will still be on 44% on election day.
So how does it lay when preferences are diced up?
Grab hold of your spine Shows, no-one said this would be a walk in the park.
The apparent fast-tracking of Porter into Canberra, some are saying as a potential leader, illustrates how much faith the LNP powerbrokers have in the current lineup.
And apparently Bishop (J) and Cormann are behind this move. Surely they have faith in Tony don’t they?
Don’t they?
[ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, June 17, 2012 at 10:41 pm | Permalink
All Gillard needs to do is increase the Labor vote by the same amount every month until the next election and Labor will still be on 44% on election day.]
Roaring economy, compensation flowing into the voters pockets and the ALP gets 44% of the TPP vote (or about 46 seats).
Ouch!
oops, forgot the quotes.
And so the march backwards continues.
[The New South Wales Education Department has been condemned for abolishing a unit dedicated to providing drug prevention programs and advice.
Greg Prior, the deputy director-general of schools, has confirmed the drug education unit has been disbanded, along with six positions.]
Why are Right Wingers just such awful human beings?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-16/anger-as-nsw-drug-education-unit-abolished/4074448
Mod Lib
Don’t worry, you will keep.
Showson
[Stop telling me what to do Mr Puffer, it pisses me off.]
Does it look like I give a smurf?
The question isn’t IF the caucus will opt for self preservation after July 1st, but WHEN
I’m going with early to mid October
[The question isn’t IF the caucus will opt for self preservation after July 1st, but WHEN]
If Rudd becomes PM next Thursday he would have 2.5 months off (the entire winter recess) before parliament sits again…
spur212
You can go into the same holding pen as Mod Lib. It is the one marked, Diet: Their words.
[If Rudd becomes PM next Thursday he would have 2.5 months off (the entire winter recess) before parliament sits again…]
Assuming he didn’t call a snap election, or one just before the next sitting…
Showy,
I suggest, not tell mind you, suggest you take a Bex and have a good lay down.
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Sunday, June 17, 2012 at 10:51 pm | Permalink
spur212
You can go into the same holding pen as Mod Lib. It is the one marked, Diet: Their words.]
Vic, NSW, Qld….soon NT.
The penny will drop eventually Puff. It will come eventually…
The Herald Sun’s Galaxy Poll story is up: http://bit.ly/P3VA4O
Puff
Remain in denial
Oh smurf.
I hear a grinding noise.
I think it is a key being wound. Oh, it has stopped. What is that, the Dance of the Sugar Plum Fairy?
Is that an ex-PM twirling in the Rudderstoration music box?
Who opened the smurfing lid again?
Still ranting on Rudd ?
Good Bye blog until further notice.
Showson,
666 is not really the Mark of the Beast.
Just sayin’.
spur212 @ 27
The saddest thing is Puff is one of the more sane supporters of oblivion. Others are just barking mad.
This poll spells it out pretty clearly.
The constitutional issues with same sex marriage had never occurred to me, to be honest.
Whilst certainly not professing to be a constitutional lawyer, and not having looked at what the constitution actually says, my general recollection is that the federal constitution confers on the Commonwealth the power to make laws with respect to marriage.
This of course begs the question as to what is “marriage”, at least in constitutional terms. If the Commonwealth purports to make a law with regard to an issue that is not covered by one of the heads of power conferred on it, then the power to make such laws is available only to the states.
With same-sex unions, however described, the first question is whether the power to make such laws is available tothe Commonwealth. If, in constitutional terms, “marriage” has a specific meaning based on the common law, being the union of man and woman (and without going into the rights and wrongs – I have always supported same sex marriage – I would have thought the common law position about man/woman exclusivity in marriage is a pretty strongly arguable position), then what power does the Commonwealth have?
If a same-sex union is not marriage at common law, and the Commonwealth lacks legislative power, then the default position would be that only the states could make such laws (having broad powers to make laws for peace, order and good government in the state – in other words, powers to make laws in respect of matters that have not vested exclusively in the Commonwealth.)
But then there’s the rub: if in constitutional terms only the Commonwealth has power to make laws regarding marriage, and in applying the constitution the man/woman definition of marriage under common law prevails, then I’m not sure that either the Commonwealth or the states could legislate for same-sex “marriage”. Maybe the best outcome within the current constitutional framework would be the status quo ie, state laws respecting same-sex union property entitlements, Commonwealth anti-discrimination laws preventing discrimination based on sexual-preference etc. Possibly states could enact laws to provide additional legal recognition of same-sex unions?
Other than that, a federal constitutional amendment to amend the constitutional definition of marriage would be needed.
Any constitutional lawyers out the prepared to express a view?
[The saddest thing is Puff is one of the more sane supporters of oblivion.]
The wishful thinkers faction is a very broad church.
[The saddest thing is Puff is one of the more sane supporters of oblivion. Others are just barking mad.]
Its not even about the monotonous consistency of the polls….don’t you guys talk to anyone?
Gillard is toxic and she is tarnishing brand ALP with her political poison.
That this is taking so long to sink in just amazes me!
I guarantee you, those figures are firm and they aren’t going to be turned around. The Prime Minister has been well and truly judged
Galaxy posted simular results back in April:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/04/29/galaxy-56-44-to-coalition/
The fact also the 2PP has risen from 30 to 31.
So now good bye from This blog.
Your dangerous you lot factionists.
ShowsOn @ 35
I object to the use of the word ‘thinkers’.
[Other than that, a federal constitutional amendment to amend the constitutional definition of marriage would be needed.]
The shortest route to ending marriage discrimination is for an amendment to the marriage act. Now, there could then be potential High Court cases on the validity of the law, but my question is, who exactly would have standing to bring such a case before the court? Someone that just got married?
Another option would be for the federal parliament to repeal the Marriage Act to make ALL marriages civil unions, as is the case in France.
The third option would be to amend the constitution.
A majority of the High Court would basically rule that times have changed, the populace has moved on, having a Marriage Act that doesn’t differentiate between same-sex and opposite sex couples is fine.
Outsider,
I want ssc to have a marriage day and a certificate. I am not sure how it could be done as I do not know enough about the Constitution or the Law. Maybe the best that can be done at the moment is civil unions in the states, as unsatisfactory as that is. At least it would solve the problem of having to prove retrospectively when a relationship started rather than proactively showing that it starts now (as of the registration of the union) and continues from that point.
[I want ssc to have a marriage day and a certificate. I am not sure how it could be done as I do not know enough about the Constitution or the Law. ]
Change the Marriage Act. Then challenge the High Court to strike down the democratic will of the parliament.
I doubt they would do it.
Zoidlord @ 30
I’m with you.
Between that constant Ruddstoration fantasy and the moronic stupidity of that seriously sexually frustrated shit stirrer Shows On;
it is time to ZIP…!
My prediction for the Greek election is that Theo Smufadopolos will be the next Prime Minister.
Scathing attack from Malcolm Fraser on Tony Abbott and Scott Morison
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/abbotts-evil-policy-work-20120617-20hzs.html
There is an invisible line down the Great Dividing Range.
A drop of water on one side of this line faces a trip down to the Pacific Ocean. Its neighbour will, instead end up in the Southern Ocean.
Australian politics is right on that line at the moment. The illusion of momentum in politics may just be reaching that invisible line.
All the momentum has been pushing the Abbott-led anti-Government forces into a seemingly natural fall into the Treasury benches. Yet it has all been dependent on the illusion of Abbott-invincibility being maintained. More at
http://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2012/06/17/is-there-a-perfect-storm-ahead-for-tony-abbotta-time-of-waiting/
Galaxy seems to be at a lower number for the govt than Newspoll, which is strange.
Still, given Newspoll is regarded as the most respected poll then we have to go with 54-46 as the true result.
Easily in range for the Govt.
Good post Archie but being the pedant I am it is Albanese I believe.
But yes good read.
Henry @ 48
None of these polls are ‘the true result’. All are using results from a sample to make an inference about the total population. They are estimates with a margin of error.
[Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.]
Wouldn’t the opposite be the case? After all, to win more than your percentage in seats implies relatively efficient distribution of support. Large margins are wasteful.
[Henry
Posted Sunday, June 17, 2012 at 11:21 pm | Permalink
Galaxy seems to be at a lower number for the govt than Newspoll, which is strange.
Still, given Newspoll is regarded as the most respected poll then we have to go with 54-46 as the true result.
Easily in range for the Govt.]
Nice try, but that is wishful thinking.
The 4 polling companies have it at 57, 56, 56 and 54. You can take whichever one you like the best if you like, but looking at all the information is usually the better option. Particularly since the message has been crystal clear for over a year…
[Galaxy seems to be at a lower number for the govt than Newspoll, which is strange.
Still, given Newspoll is regarded as the most respected poll then we have to go with 54-46 as the true result.]
Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy are no more or less than each other. Morgan is rubbish, Essential is untested.
[Easily in range for the Govt.]
IN RANGE? WTF? They have behind by this margin or more for a year. LANDSLIDE LOSS territory!
Galaxy Poll
Is the Labor Government now better or worse than it was two years ago under Kevin Rudd?
Better 20 Worse 64
Has the Gillard Government succeeded or failed regarding an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions?
Yes 30 No 59
Has the Gillard Government succeeded or failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom?
Yes 29 No 57
Has the Gillard Government succeeded or failed in stopping the asylum seeker boats?
Yes 9 No 80
Mod Lib: Funny how Newspoll is suddenly the poll of choice for Gillard Labor. 👿
40
The Commonwealth probably does not have the power to legislate fir Civil Unions (outside the Territories).
France has both Marriages (which much be at civil ceremonies but may later have religious services) and Civil Unions and these are different.