Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.

UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).

In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:

• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.

• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.

• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.

• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.

Federal preselection news:

• WA Treasurer Christian Porter’s bombshell announcement that he will seek to enter federal politics at the next election has transformed the Liberal preselection contest for the Perth hinterland seat of Pearce, where incumbent of 19 years Judi Moylan will retire at the next election. Porter entered state parliament at a February 2008 by-election and assumed the role of Attorney-General when the Barnett government came to power seven months later, winning promotion to Treasurer in December 2010. Marcus Priest of the Australian Financial Review says Porter is “often seen as part of the right of the WA Liberals”, being “an economic dry and law and order hard-liner”, but “can be socially liberal on issues such as native title”. Prior to entering politics he had been a public prosecutor, adviser to Howard government Justice Minister and WA Senator Chris Ellison and law lecturer at the University of Western Australia. The front-runner for the preselection was previously thought to have been 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth, who is planning to fight on. The West Australian reports the field also includes “two locals, Bill Crabtree and Rod Henderson”. Another contender, high-profile financial adviser Nick Bruining, has conceded Porter’s entry has left him with no chance and withdrawn.

• Richard Torbay, state independent member for Northern Tablelands, has all but been confirmed as the Nationals candidate to take on Tony Windsor in New England, with Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reporting the party has guaranteed him “freedom to speak with an independent voice on local issues”. Nationals internal polling reportedly found Torbay rated more highly in the electorate than both Windor and the other mooted Nationals contender for New England, Barnaby Joyce. Labor’s NSW state secretary, Sam Dastyari, has accused Torbay of offering to join the ALP in November 2009 if it agreed to make him Premier, shortly before Nathan Rees was dumped in favour of Kristina Keneally. The claim has been vigorously denied by Torbay, who was a member of the ALP during his days as mayor of Armidale in the 1990s. This is consistent with reporting at the time from the Daily Telegraph and Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, which indicated that approaches to Torbay were at Labor’s initiative rather than his own. (UPDATE: Fairfax further reports that John Della Bosca, who was involved in the talks with Torbay, has said Dastyari’s account is inconsistent with his own recollection).

• Sarah Henderson, former state 7:30 Report presenter and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has easily won a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection in Corangamite, polling an absolute majority in the first round. Her main rival was Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection last time. Henderson’s backers were said to include Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, while Nockles reportedly had support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer.

• Michael Sukkar, a 30-year-old tax laywer for the firm Ashurt, has emerged a surprise winner in the Liberal preselection for the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin. The presumed front-runner had been John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said to be closely associated with Ted Baillieu. In third place was Michelle Frazer, state government media and communications adviser. (UPDATE: VexNews relates that also-ran candidates Phillip Fusco, Terry Barnes, Andrew Munroe were eliminated in that order, at which point Sukkar and former Melbourne candidate Simon Olsen were tied for third. After winning a run-off against Olsen, Sukkar crucially managed to get his nose ahead of Frazer, who unlike Sukkar would not have succeeded in getting ahead of Pesutto in the final round due to a view among Sukkar’s backers that she “wasn’t up to it”.)

• Cate Faehrmann, who filled the vacancy in the New South Wales Legislative Council when Lee Rhiannon was elected to the Senate at the 2010 election, has won preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election.

• Jodie Stephens of the Launceston Examiner reports the Tasmanian Liberals have selected trade and investment adviser Sally Chandler and vineyard owner Sarah Courtney as the third and fourth candidates for their Senate ticket, behind incumbents Richard Colbeck and David Bushby. Others in the preselection field were “Launceston Chamber of Commerce office manager Kristen Finnigan, Hobart Alderman Sue Hickey, previous Liberal candidate Jane Howlett, former Bass MHA David Fry and former senior Liberal adviser Don Morris”.

• The Port Macquarie News reports the candidates for the Nationals preselection to take on Rob Oakeshott in Lyne are local gastroenterologist David Gillespie, who was the candidate in 2010, and Brett Sprague, a former chiropractor and current officer in the Royal Australian Artillery. The ballot will be held on July 1. UPDATE: Another Port Macquarie News report says other starters are Port Macquarie Panthers general manager Russell Cooper, former councillor and business owner Jamie Harrison, 26-year-old IT systems engineer Aaron Mendham and Paladin Panels Wauchope owner Reg Pierce).

• Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports that the LNP candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton in 2010, Malcolm Cole, is likely to be given the chance for another crack at the seat. Cole’s CV includes spells as a Courier-Mail journalist and a staffer to former Senator and factional warlord Santo Santoro.

• Terry Deefholts of the Daily Examiner reports the NSW Nationals will preselect a candidate to run against Labor member Janelle Saffin in the marginal north coast seat of Page on June 30. The candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, has confirmed he will nominate, with Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson and Alumy Creek farmer Fiona Leviny also named as possible starters.

• The West Australian reports Geoff Hourn, a former lieutenant-colonel in the Australian Intelligence Corps, and Darryl Moore, an engineer, have nominated for Liberal preselection to take on Stephen Smith in Perth (UPDATE: Nikki Savva of The Australian reports this was decided on Thursday night in Moore’s favour).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8,906 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. @BBS/8792

    They did come up with solution, Malaysia Solution, but it was defeated because Abbott & Co didn’t want a bipartisan support, and wanted the blame squarely on Labor.

    This could have relatively be solved if the bill was sent through successfully without any amendments, then in time, if Nauru or any other country was to hands up on that, that’s up to the Goverment of the Day.

    Because that’s the whole point of Governing, this isn’t high school.

  4. Family reunion still exists, but it isn’t always easy to get someone out under its provisions (I tried to help get a white millionaire from Zimbabwe out to take care of his aged father, and found it almost impossible – still don’t know whether he was successful in the end…)

  5. [For starters I don’t have a Department of Immigration with hundreds if not thousands of people paid to possibly come up a solution.

    Secondly, I am not the Minister of Immigration so it is not my job to provide an answer.

    BB, have you got an answer beyond parrotting a government policy that has reached a political impasse?]

    So you haven’t got an answer. Thought not.

    The Malaysian Solution (or similar) is two votes away from being implemented.

    Other than that, they drown.

  7. zoidlord,

    Seems no one wants to a solution (apart from the Red Witch and cohort has signed up for) that just might work, one that Malaysia has signed up to and one that the international body on refugees has given a nod to.

  10. Sprocket @ 8800

    Those things were happening before the Malaysia solution was struck down.

    Zoidlord @8803

    [They did come up with solution, Malaysia Solution, but it was defeated because Abbott & Co didn’t want a bipartisan support, and wanted the blame squarely on Labor.]

    Yes, but that policy has come unstuck because of the political impasse.

    [Because that’s the whole point of Governing, this isn’t high school.]

    Governing is about making things happen, this one can’t happen but they are not making anything else happen and so the whole sad process goeson.

  15. The whole boat issue is probably not also helped by there being a minister – Bowen – who has made it clear that he doesn’t want to be there – and who also did not want the PM to be there back in February. It is policy/political lose/lose.

    But then who would want to be Immigration Minister? It is a political graveyard beyond compare.

  16. @BBS/8810

    You got to be kidding, they didn’t make it happen because they don’t have a MAJORITY TO GOVERN IN THEIR OWN RIGHT.

    The old saying goes, stuck in the middle.

  17. blackburnpseph@8810

    Here is a question for Abbott, and I have been tempted to email him and ask,

    Tony how do you feel everynight when you close your eyes to go to sleep that desparate people are dying because you want to get one up one the Govt.

  18. Zoidlord

    Even if they did have a majority they could not have got it through the Senate if the Libs were opposed.

    [The old saying goes, stuck in the middle.]
    = inertia?

  19. Black Caviar could be in trouble, in that last race down the straight the placings came from the inside of the track.

    The champ will be starting from the extreme outside. Actually I’d like to know the speed of that track, the slower that surface, the worse it will be for it.:cool:

    I have backed the dead heat to 2 lengths margin 🙂

  21. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/turnbull-urges-asylum-seeker-truce-after-tragedy/story-e6freuy9-1226406337528

    [Turnbull urges asylum seeker truce after tragedy
    Samantha Maiden and Debbie Guest
    The Sunday Telegraph
    June 24, 2012 12:00AM

    MALCOLM Turnbull will urge Tony Abbott to take a more bipartisan approach on border protection as authorities prepare to call off the search for survivors in the latest tragedy off Christmas Island.

    But the Liberal leader is expected to defy any calls to embrace Labor’s preferred option for offshore processing in Malaysia.

    ……………..

    There tragedy has added to growing disquiet in Coalition ranks over the failure of the major parties to reach agreement on offshore processing. Liberal MPs confirmed to The Sunday Telegraph that Mr Turnbull, a former Liberal leader who was deposed by Mr Abbott, had indicated he would raise the issue with the party’s leadership at a shadow cabinet meeting on Monday.

    Mr Turnbull did not return calls yesterday. On Friday, WA Liberal MP Mal Washer broke ranks to call for a more bipartisan approach.]

  22. Henry

    [Yeah but they’re pommy races Schapps, who gives one?]

    Just like horse racing and horses,not into gambling.

  23. @bbs/8818

    Only for the senate would they be required if that was the case.

    But my comment stands stuck in the middle, doomed if they did, doomed if they did not, etc, etc.

  24. Centre – track is dead to slow by Australian standards according to earlier commentary – she has the tactical speed to race wherever she wants – 2 lengths untouched for me

  25. Henry,

    There are those three stars in a line, a straight line and a curve. Scorp rules in the Southern firmament.

  26. [Schnappi
    Posted Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 12:02 am | Permalink
    Turnbull to urge abbott,libs maybe wising up.]

    the Libs should give Labor the vote to pass the Asian solution.

  29. Schnappi and leroy.

    Both quick off the mark with Daily Telegraph news… Avid readers of the NSW gospel truth are we?.

  30. Cwntre,

    BC may not get be wet track chick but she has not been tasted on that so far. Care to bet v the lady?

    Evens minus just might bar the field.

  31. the Libs should give Labor the vote to pass the Asian solution.

    SO got you by the throat?

    Scorps and I are up for the the next half hour.

    Ditto compliment on last night.

  32. rummel

    [Schnappi and leroy.

    Both quick off the mark with Daily Telegraph news… Avid readers of the NSW gospel truth are we?.]

    Do not click on anything murdoch or fairfax,but do post references when sourced from abc,google or social media.but usually not anti government.

  33. Comparing surfaces on different tracks around the world could be tricky, they were certainly digging in to that surface in that staying race.

    Womble, she will be touched, it’s the world stage 😉

  37. rummel – I saw it tweeted around, read it, resent it, and copied here for the late shift. I used to scan most of the main papers’ sites most days before I got onto twitter, and still do somewhat, but generally rely on a few of the better twitter scouts to pick things up for me.

    As a news junkie, I generally read most of the media, I don’t have any self imposed ban on News Ltd for example, as I try to pass on nuggets of info to others.

  38. MT speaking out about a bipartisan approach to AS means he is joining a growing list of Liberals doing so.

    Abbott and his handlers are still trying to shake off the Dr No tag, and this disquiet comes at just the wrong time on that front.

    Interesting days ahead.

  41. [SO got you by the throat?]

    TLBD.

    No. Im just sick of hearing about more dead boat people every few months. Give Gillard the votes needed to get it over the line and see how it works out. If it fails we can move on and the greens can continue to jabber on about it without taking any action as usual.

  45. People in the crowd are rugging up although it is summer time in the northern hemiphere.

    Obviously global warming is yet to start over there as well 😆

  47. [http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/kevin-buffs-up-for-battle/story-e6freuy9-1226406307135]

    lol Kev has found him self a JWH trackie. The man is clearly after a new job.

  48. Confessions,

    I suspect there are a lot of Libs who disagree with Abbott and now they are finding their voices, how do you face youself in the morning knowing that you are causing unnecescary deaths to hold a line.

Comments are closed.

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