Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.

UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).

In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:

• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.

• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.

• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.

• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.

Federal preselection news:

• WA Treasurer Christian Porter’s bombshell announcement that he will seek to enter federal politics at the next election has transformed the Liberal preselection contest for the Perth hinterland seat of Pearce, where incumbent of 19 years Judi Moylan will retire at the next election. Porter entered state parliament at a February 2008 by-election and assumed the role of Attorney-General when the Barnett government came to power seven months later, winning promotion to Treasurer in December 2010. Marcus Priest of the Australian Financial Review says Porter is “often seen as part of the right of the WA Liberals”, being “an economic dry and law and order hard-liner”, but “can be socially liberal on issues such as native title”. Prior to entering politics he had been a public prosecutor, adviser to Howard government Justice Minister and WA Senator Chris Ellison and law lecturer at the University of Western Australia. The front-runner for the preselection was previously thought to have been 24-year-old trademark lawyer Alex Butterworth, who is planning to fight on. The West Australian reports the field also includes “two locals, Bill Crabtree and Rod Henderson”. Another contender, high-profile financial adviser Nick Bruining, has conceded Porter’s entry has left him with no chance and withdrawn.

• Richard Torbay, state independent member for Northern Tablelands, has all but been confirmed as the Nationals candidate to take on Tony Windsor in New England, with Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reporting the party has guaranteed him “freedom to speak with an independent voice on local issues”. Nationals internal polling reportedly found Torbay rated more highly in the electorate than both Windor and the other mooted Nationals contender for New England, Barnaby Joyce. Labor’s NSW state secretary, Sam Dastyari, has accused Torbay of offering to join the ALP in November 2009 if it agreed to make him Premier, shortly before Nathan Rees was dumped in favour of Kristina Keneally. The claim has been vigorously denied by Torbay, who was a member of the ALP during his days as mayor of Armidale in the 1990s. This is consistent with reporting at the time from the Daily Telegraph and Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, which indicated that approaches to Torbay were at Labor’s initiative rather than his own. (UPDATE: Fairfax further reports that John Della Bosca, who was involved in the talks with Torbay, has said Dastyari’s account is inconsistent with his own recollection).

• Sarah Henderson, former state 7:30 Report presenter and unsuccessful candidate in 2010, has easily won a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection in Corangamite, polling an absolute majority in the first round. Her main rival was Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection last time. Henderson’s backers were said to include Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, while Nockles reportedly had support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer.

• Michael Sukkar, a 30-year-old tax laywer for the firm Ashurt, has emerged a surprise winner in the Liberal preselection for the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin. The presumed front-runner had been John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said to be closely associated with Ted Baillieu. In third place was Michelle Frazer, state government media and communications adviser. (UPDATE: VexNews relates that also-ran candidates Phillip Fusco, Terry Barnes, Andrew Munroe were eliminated in that order, at which point Sukkar and former Melbourne candidate Simon Olsen were tied for third. After winning a run-off against Olsen, Sukkar crucially managed to get his nose ahead of Frazer, who unlike Sukkar would not have succeeded in getting ahead of Pesutto in the final round due to a view among Sukkar’s backers that she “wasn’t up to it”.)

• Cate Faehrmann, who filled the vacancy in the New South Wales Legislative Council when Lee Rhiannon was elected to the Senate at the 2010 election, has won preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election.

• Jodie Stephens of the Launceston Examiner reports the Tasmanian Liberals have selected trade and investment adviser Sally Chandler and vineyard owner Sarah Courtney as the third and fourth candidates for their Senate ticket, behind incumbents Richard Colbeck and David Bushby. Others in the preselection field were “Launceston Chamber of Commerce office manager Kristen Finnigan, Hobart Alderman Sue Hickey, previous Liberal candidate Jane Howlett, former Bass MHA David Fry and former senior Liberal adviser Don Morris”.

• The Port Macquarie News reports the candidates for the Nationals preselection to take on Rob Oakeshott in Lyne are local gastroenterologist David Gillespie, who was the candidate in 2010, and Brett Sprague, a former chiropractor and current officer in the Royal Australian Artillery. The ballot will be held on July 1. UPDATE: Another Port Macquarie News report says other starters are Port Macquarie Panthers general manager Russell Cooper, former councillor and business owner Jamie Harrison, 26-year-old IT systems engineer Aaron Mendham and Paladin Panels Wauchope owner Reg Pierce).

• Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports that the LNP candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton in 2010, Malcolm Cole, is likely to be given the chance for another crack at the seat. Cole’s CV includes spells as a Courier-Mail journalist and a staffer to former Senator and factional warlord Santo Santoro.

• Terry Deefholts of the Daily Examiner reports the NSW Nationals will preselect a candidate to run against Labor member Janelle Saffin in the marginal north coast seat of Page on June 30. The candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, has confirmed he will nominate, with Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson and Alumy Creek farmer Fiona Leviny also named as possible starters.

• The West Australian reports Geoff Hourn, a former lieutenant-colonel in the Australian Intelligence Corps, and Darryl Moore, an engineer, have nominated for Liberal preselection to take on Stephen Smith in Perth (UPDATE: Nikki Savva of The Australian reports this was decided on Thursday night in Moore’s favour).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8,906 thoughts on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Re the Chins….
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8626008.stm

    The Chin are mainly Christians, having converted to the faith when the British ruled the area before independence after World War II.

    The persecution of the Chin dates back to the military takeover of Burma in the 1960s.

    According to the US State Department, Burmese troops and officials have tried to forcibly convert the Chin from Christianity to Buddhism.

    They have also destroyed churches, and arrested and even killed Christian Chin clergy, who now often work undercover.

    If the Chins were muslim and wore traditional clothing would the same level of support, acceptance and tolerance be shown by the surrounding community?

  5. guytaur @ 7970

    The reality is you want to blame the Greens for people drowning when that is down to Indonesia enforcing maritime standards regarding vessels and their safety. No one would be losing life in a sea worthy vessel except in exceptional circumstances.

    This particular piece of Green rubbish has been posted a few times.
    There are 2 obvious issues it overlooks:

    1. There is a big difference between what is required to do fishing close to a coast to which one can return if the weather starts to turn and what would be required for an ocean voyage of several hundred kilometres.

    2. Since the boat will not be returning, the people smugglers are obviously going to pick the cheapest boat they can get hold of that has a chance of lasting the distance… maybe.

  6. I have no idea what he is on about

    Chris Kenny @chriskkenny 1h
    In politics, when you really, utterly, completely stuff up, you and your media mates have no option but to call for bipartisanship

  8. Just been reading Mr. Justice Flick’s judgement. He exercises a dab hand at dry wit,especially where it concerns BigMouth Kathy Jackson’s comment to Chris Uhlmann on 7.30. Heh… she thought she’d gotten away with it, it seems…:

    At present, Ms Jackson holds the office of National Secretary of the Federal Union (a position attracting remuneration of about $150,000) and the position of Executive President of the State Union and the Federal Branch (a position attracting remuneration of about $270,000). She has not been receiving the remuneration for the National Secretary position since she was elected to the position of Executive President.

    In the absence of explanation, a salary of approximately $270,000 may seem open to question when compared to the remuneration attaching to the position of National Secretary.

    But nothing turns upon such a comparison.

    The loss of the remuneration of $270,000, however, may not be as “substantial” as it may first appear. There is, for instance, some evidence in the form of an extract from an interview given to the 7.30 Report that Ms Jackson accepts that a salary of $270,000 is

    “a little excessive”

    for someone representing some of the

    “poorest workers in Australia…”.

    She has stated publicly that she would be prepared to

    “put {her} hand up and … {take} at least $100,000 {as a} salary cut”.

    The loss of the $270,000 remuneration, it was suggested by Counsel for Mr Brown and his associated Applicants, would not affect her entitlement to the remuneration of $150,000 attaching to the position of National Secretary.

    and later…

    … Even if attention is given to these further considerations, the onus of establishing that no “substantial injustice” would be occasioned to Ms Jackson is further discharged given that:

    * part of the factual basis informing the conclusion that the bodies have ceased to function effectively are a number of allegations that have been made against her; and

    * she is very much at the epicentre of the dispute. Irrespective of the merits or otherwise of the allegations she has made, she is at least partly responsible for the collective dysfunction of the Federal Branch and the State Union.

    The fact that Ms Jackson genuinely holds the belief that she is seeking to expose “corruption” may be accepted. There may even be considerable factual merit in her position.
    …
    {However,} For the purposes of s 323(4) (and s 290B(11)), the Court is satisfied that the making of an order will “not do substantial injustice to the organisation or any member of the organisation”.

    Cop THAT, femme fatale.

  10. Deblonay

    I’m ignorant?

    Hey, do you know what the polls were showing before that infamous day when the Greens held a press conference straight after the Labor Party to announce the introduction of the carbon tax?

    51/49.

    They immediately went to 55/45, what they are now.

    Of course Green policies are unelectable. What do you think they’d be if Labor adopted HansonYoung’s boat people policy?

    I will tell you… 73/27 tops!

    You, like the rest of your Green mates, can’t face reality.

  11. vic,

    “I have no idea what he is on about

    Chris Kenny @chriskkenny 1h
    In politics, when you really, utterly, completely stuff up, you and your media mates have no option but to call for bipartisanship”

    I think that translates to
    when your a journalist and come out with such a vile comment you have nowhere to hide.

  13. Black Caviar races at 1.45pm.

    They are actually betting on it’s winning margin.

    Can you believe it, margin 6 lengths or more is the favourite way.

    If it wins, the margin will be less than 3 😎

  14. Oh dear. Now I am ignorant!

    The claim made for Mr Turling was that he shortened the war, possibly by years. He didn’t. Not by a single day.

    The other claim was that military intelligence, provided by Mr Turling’s efforts, made the difference between defeat and victory in various battles and possibly even won the war.

    Bottom line, and as a general statement, the USSR did not defeat the germans using military intelligence. They beat the germans by taking around 9 million military deaths and inflicting around four million german deaths. It is difficult for us to understand what this means this far away from what happend. To put it into some sort of perspective, the Russians lost two and a half times the entire wartime population of Australia in military deaths, and they lost a further three-to four-times the entire wartime population of Australia in civilian deaths.

    By way of comparison in the brute strength department, British Commonwealth military deaths in all theatres, were around an eight of the entire wartime population of Australia.

    Most of the russian and german military deaths were by way of gargantuan brute force meat grinding operations involving armies of millions, tens of thousands of artillary pieces, thousands of planes, and thousands of tanks along fronts of thousands of miles.

    BB mentioned Kursk. Yes, the Russians had Ultra information. But, the massive build up on both sides for the battle of Kursk was obvious to military intelligence of both sides. Kursk, as a salient, was militarily an obvious target. The flanks of the Kursk salient were the obvious points for schwerpunts. You just can’t have a build up involving 35,000 pieces of artillary, 8,000 tanks, 2,700,000 soldiers, 5000 aircraft and associated transport, munitions, rear forces, fuel and supplies without this being generally known to both sides. In the end, the Russians won Kursk because they had more artillary, more planes, more men, more tanks and were prepared to take whatever tens of thousands of deaths it took to wear the germans out.

    I believe that Ultra made a significant difference to the Battle of the Atlantic.
    As did US code breakers to Pacific naval battles. Up to date information was a far more valuable force multiplier at sea than it was on land, particularly in the days before long range radar. There is little doubt, for example, that US understanding of Japanese intentions had an important impact at Midway. But, in the end, what won the Pacific naval war was not intelligence. It was dozens of fast carrier groups. And those atom bombs.

    While some take it as axiomatic that Ultra won the Battle of the Atlantic, it is difficult to separate the relative contributions of Mr Turling and of Mr Horton to the outcome.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Kennedy_Horton

    I stand by my general views, ignorant or not though they may be.

    What won the land war in the european theatre was massive bloodletting on a gargantuan scale in massive brute battles. In the end, the germans simply ran out of men and material. This may have been somewhat affected by Ultra but, on land, Ultra was only one source of military intelligence. The difference it made was therefore marginal.

    The land war in Europe was won by Russia. Britain played a minor role. In terms of military deaths, the ratio of Russian to British deaths was around 20:1.

    At sea, Ultra made a significant difference in various naval battles, including in the Battle of the Atlantic. But even in the Battle of the Atlantic it is open to debate whether Ultra or Mr Horton made the decisive difference.

  15. vic,

    I know, what is all this crap about the media being biased towards the government?, it only ever seems to appear when the media actually challenge the conservatives once in a blue moon.

  19. In the spirit of getting away from boats, Ruddstoration, Alan Turing and whatever else, I present more popcorn from Mr. Justice Flick:

    On Friday 15 June 2012 Mr Rofe QC again appeared on behalf of Ms Jackson for the limited purpose of seeking an adjournment for a further week.

    He appeared with Junior Counsel but without the benefit of instructing solicitors.

    That application was founded upon:

    * an assertion that he had been unable to gain access to Ms Jackson over the preceding week;

    * an assertion that Ms Jackson had had either no time (or at least insufficient time) in which the address the issues arising in the proceedings;

    * an undated and unsigned letter from a Dr Paul Foulkes, a Consultant Psychiatrist. No order was sought by Mr Rofe QC for an order pursuant to s 50 of the Federal Court of Australia Act in respect to the public availability of that letter and no order, accordingly, was made; and

    * the limited financial resources available to Ms Jackson.

    These factors, it was submitted, resulted in Ms Jackson:

    * being denied an opportunity have access to proper legal advice.

    The application for the further adjournment was refused.

    It was considered that there was no evidence to support either of the two assertions.

    It is inexplicable that time could not be found within the week afforded to her to give instructions – no matter how limited – to either Mr Rofe QC or his Junior.

    Little weight could be placed upon the letter from Dr Foulkes. It was unknown when Dr Foulkes had last seen Ms Jackson – although the content of the letter suggested that he may have spoken to her on the telephone within the last week or so. Dr Foulkes did not state that Ms Jackson was not fit to meaningfully participate in the hearing or when, in his opinion, her condition would be such that she would be better able to participate in the hearing.

    Certainly during the course of oral submissions on both 8 and 15 June 2012 she presented as a coherent and focused individual. Any submission that Ms Jackson had been “denied” access to legal advice was without substance. Up until she withdrew her instructions from her initial legal representatives, she had had the benefit of their advice.

    In other words, “You can’t sack your solicitors and your silk and use that to claim you haven’t had sufficient legal representation.”

  20. Vic:

    Chris Kenny @chriskkenny 1h
    In politics, when you really, utterly, completely stuff up, you and your media mates have no option but to call for bipartisanship

    What he’s saying there is that he got utterly shown up on his show this morning, and he’s not man enough to admit it. The ALP‘s “media mates” are just people who don’t agree with him.

  21. From my understanding, Brittish Intellegence was usually behind in decoding enigma messages as they had to generate new cribb sheets for each setting.

  22. Do you know why I blame the Greens more than anything for the loss of lives on boats to our shores;

    Because they won’t do anything to rectify the problem other than use the issue for political purposes.

    For dog sakes, we send 800 and receive 4000 and many many will not risk the journey not knowing where they will finish, hence saving lives.

    The Greens… No worse than their environment mate Tony Abbott!

    You know I’m right 😛

  24. Aguirre

    Could be right. I was Thinking it might be about the asylum seeker issue. He reckons the govt stuffed up on this policy, and the govt and its media mates are seeking bi partisanship.

  27. Yes, the best mare in Australia races at 1.45am our time.

    How far could Black Caviar beat Choisir, a past Aussie winner of the race?

    According to an expert I seriously respect – 1.5 lengths.

  28. I am (gasping) up to #171,

    but must go to bed now if I’m to retain any sanity tomorrow.

    Goodnight and good luck, and apologies to all to whom I’ve not responded.

  30. you can blame the Greens all you like Centre but there’s only one person responsible for the death of an asylum seeker at sea, the asylum seeker themselves

  32. Aguirre

    Could be right. I was Thinking it might be about the asylum seeker issue. He reckons the govt stuffed up on this policy, and the govt and its media mates are seeking bi partisanship.

    He had a recent run-in on Twitter that went very badly for him – he just insulted everyone and went on about libellous comments. Then he backed it up by being overruled by Samantha Maiden (of all people) this morning on his show.

    He wants to cry crocodile tears over asylum seekers and back Abbott’s “send em to hell” policy at the same time. Nobody’s buying it, so he’s having a little sook.

  38. (e Posted Saturday, June 23, 2012 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

    record raised at PM olympics fund raising dinner – well i think that’s what they said

    )is Julia back in the country???)

    Earlier this evening i went to the trouble of finding the previous news item on this.’

    Ch 10 where at the olympic dinner in the lobby, the oraganizer of the fund raising night,

    Mentioned the pm had recorded a message , and they under stood the pm overseas trip clashed,
    Mmay the reporter wanted a other answer , ?

    They where very happy to have mr swan attendi ng the pm will be back tomorrow

    So there u have it
    The person from the olympics committee exprssed again

  39. A

    Availability of Ultra varied considerably at different times of the war. One of the difficulties with its widespread and continous use was that the germans might twig that Enigma had been cracked. So the actual application was heavily rationed.

    This led to some tortured decision making where unncessary losses were accepted.

  40. Before I go, GO gorgeous lady Black Caviar, and boo sux to the stupid new trainer of So You Think – how surprisement that taking him back to his old regime is getting results!!!

    Night all, m’dears.

  43. La la land has a lot of inhabitants; around 1.7 million people vote Greens.

    The number of Greens representatives at federal, state and local level is increasing.

    Insulting us is a great tactic to win our hearts and minds to your cause 😆

    Keep it up by all means 😉

  45. BW,

    I knew they were concerned about whether the Germans would twig to the enigma being cracked but also that earlier they were still struggling with enigma and decoding in time I just hadn’t married the two together. So ultra was decoding in time but it was also the judicious usage of the decoded information.

  46. Well it could be lat this evening , but who could expect her
    Except her critics ro score points
    To jump off a plane and go to an olympic dinner

    Minister for sport is there and the acting pm-

    Havig been to one of these events , state wise, there is so many speeches,
    Any way

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