Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 the previous month, with both parties down on the primary vote – Labor by two to 26% and the Coalition by one to 48%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 46-44. Nielsen also asked who would be preferred as prime minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott, with Rudd favoured 59-37, and who would be favoured as Liberal leader out of Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, with the former favoured 61-34. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have taken a hit – down five on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 57% – while Julia Gillard’s are little changed, her approval up a point to 36% and her disapproval steady at 60%. On the state breakdowns, two aberrations from last time have ironed out: over the last three polls, Labor’s two-party vote in Victoria went from 51% to 54% to 50%, while in Queensland it went from 35% to 32% to 36%. It won’t do to read much into the smaller state results particularly, but I note Labor is only three points ahead of the Greens in Western Australia.

UPDATE: This week’s Essential Research survey has all parties steady on the primary vote — Coalition on 50%, Labor on 33%, Greens on 10% — but owing to the vagaries of rounding, two-party is back at 56-44 after a week at 57-43. Other questions focus on various aspects of the Craig Thomson matter: level of awareness (29% a lot, 30% some, 28% a little and 9% nothing), importance (30% very, 36% quite, 18% not very and 7% not at all), appropriateness of media coverage (43% too much, 8% too little, 35% not at all) and how various parties have handled the matter (bad news on all counts). The poll also finds a great many more deem corporations (54%) than ordinary Australians (5%) to have been the main beneficiaries of economic reform since the 1980s.

UPDATE 2: It seems Roy Morgan might now be making a habit of publishing its face-to-face results on Tuesday, having held back until Friday in the past. The latest result is very similar to that of a fortnight ago after a spike in the Coalition’s favour last week. Over the three weeks, two-party preferred has gone from 55-45 to 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences (and 58-42 to 61.5-38.5 to 58-42 on respondent allocation); Labor’s primary vote has gone from 32% to 27.5% to 32.5%; the Coalition’s has gone from 45.5% to 49% to 45%; and the Greens have gone from 10.5% to 13% and back to 10.5%.

In other news, Possum’s Pollytics is active again after a period of hibernation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,775 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  3. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP voters): Gillard 53 Rudd 45 #auspol

    khyber pass time for those needing it up ’em

  4. TLMEvanBart – No, it is within the MOE, as discussed at the time it was agreed that the real numbers were around 55-45

  5. LSL @ 32

    That “preferred leader of the party” question is a waste of time – all the Labor voters go for Turnbull and all the Liberal voters go for Rudd. They’d change their minds pretty quick if a change actually happened. The only moderately useful measure is when they break it down into who Labor voters think should be the Labor leader and who Liberal voters think should be Liberal leader. I suspect on that measure Gillard would probably be about even with Rudd, maybe a little in front.

    Can’t agree with that.
    You are right that there is probably some ‘gaming’, but Labor needs to get back some votes currently parked with the Libs and this is showing a measure of how many would come across if Rudd was leader. I would not bet on its total accuracy but I suggest it does indicate Rudd would pull an immediate improvement of at least 8 in the 2PP.

  6. Henry all you can say about the two leaders is that neither is preferred and which one is more or less not preferred fluctuates within a fairly narrow band. In fact based on Nielsen Abbott is still less not preferred than Gillard by two points.

    I don’t see how either side can say the opposing sides leader is in danger of being replaced without saying the same for their leader.

  7. [The only moderately useful measure is when they break it down into who Labor voters think should be the Labor leader and who Liberal voters think should be Liberal leader.]

    And true, you would be hoping there were a heap of Liberal voters preferring Rudd as they are the votes Labor needs to win. They already have the ones voting labor.

  8. Gussie
    It is getting near time to fix bayonets, gotta wait for the whites of their eyes though.

  9. As long as the Liberal 2PP vote stays in the mid-high 50s, Abbott is safe as leader.
    If they somehow swapped Abbott for Turnball, and it was Turnball vs Gillard in an election, Labor would be lucky to win 35 seats.
    All of the Gillardites here salivating over Abbott getting dumped for Malcolm – be careful what you wish for. 🙂

  12. [gusface
    Posted Sunday, June 3, 2012 at 11:57 pm | Permalink
    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP voters): Gillard 53 Rudd 45 #auspol

    khyber pass time for those needing it up ‘em]

    Gus:

    LOL!

    That “ALP voters” is down to the 26% rusted ons! Out of them, 4 months after the top eschelons of the ALP told everyone that Rudd was nigh on a psychopath, the current leader can barely eak out a narrow win over him with her own rusted on voters.

    The fact that you are rejoicing over this number from the 26% is just too funny!!! 😉

  14. Lets stick with Gillard. I want to see her drive Labor right of the cliff. If only to read all the bizarre rationalisations that would appear here.

  15. mexicanbeemer @43

    As much as it might not be a liked fact but the Liberal Party is more successful when it is lead by a more progressive moderate Liberals than when it is run by a more conservative hard line tory

    I think in general that may be the case, but what the Liberal Party is currently doing is attempting to destroy a government before its natural time. In these circumstances a moderate and genial sort of figure just doesn’t work.

    Tony Abbott has been incredibly successful so far and his strategy is the only one that could ever have worked. Turnbull never would have come close to beating Rudd in 2010 if he had remained leader. Turnbull would make a good Liberal leader in 1996 type conditions, but for destroying a government in its first and second terms, Tony is the man, as revolting and unfit for office as he is. I have found it fascinating to watch.

  16. For those saying “Rudd’s favoured by Coalition voters”: the ALP needs to shift votes off the Coalition in order to win the next election … A lot of votes

  17. New Poll puzzlde
    _______
    Or is it ?
    It seems that after what should have been a very bad week for Abbott and Co the polls shows ALP pp has fallen back into the lower 40ies

    and this as the Budget money-flow starts to go out
    although as I have said the whole process is terribly botched ……but whose surprised at that !

  20. [#Nielsen Poll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP voters): Gillard 53 Rudd 45 #auspol

    khyber pass time for those needing it up ‘em]

    This indeed means there will be very little backlash of swapping to Rudd. And all those ex Labor voters over at Liberal HQ looking to come back if Mr Rudd was leader over gillard.

  21. Schnappi @ 36

    Really how come you keep referring to not just us but others,you defeat your own stupidity,and are nothing but a shit stirrer.

    Check your facts. Idiots like my say and muttleymcgee were provocateurs today. Otherwise I had some enjoyable and informative discussions.

  22. Mod Lib: Gillard’s being propped up by Bill Shorten and the AWU – she’s completely beholden to union factional powerbrokers.
    Paul Howes does a hissy fit over the deal with Gina Rinehart, and Julia gets a huge fright. She’s all about conciliating union hacks, not leading the nation.

  24. Rudd is favoured by Coalition voters, but they won’t necessarily vote for him. There is every possibility they actually favour a leadership spill in the ALP. Ditto Labor voters who prefer Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party. Take those figures with a few grains of salt.

  25. CC The political climate is difference now than it was when Turnbull was leader.

    TLM Well if the polls remain as they are then we will have a Liberal Government 2013 therefore it would be better to have a Liberal that has actually achieved things and has some ideas about the modern world rather than a leader that in truth is an empty suit or near fogey

  27. [Lets stick with Gillard. I want to see her drive Labor right of the cliff. If only to read all the bizarre rationalisations that would appear here.]

    Nah, if Rudd rolls Gillard, I’d prefer to see the predictable meltdowns in here from the obvious Rudd haters, would be very amusing. 🙂

  28. [Cant wait till the carbon tax lie comes into effect next month.]

    True

    abbot fuacked up big time on all his carbon tax shite

    hope whyalla survives

    LOL

  29. I think this is an excellent result for Labor. A Labor tragic will probably disagree, but I am hoping for a narrow loss for Labor at the next election with Tony Abbott as Prime Minister – A result that will destroy the Liberal brand for a generation and set Labor up for another 10-12 years of reform.

    Come on Labor – you can’t rule forever, you’ve had 6 years, it is unreasonable to expect a dozen years everytime. The country cannot afford another 11 years of Liberal damage. Give them another go for a term, and then send them to Coventry.

  30. [http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/armada-of-asylum-seekers-brings-tb/story-e6freuy9-1226381939673]

    its an ARMADA!

  32. Come Back GG …and explain how the” Miracle of July 1″ will work and turn all the polls around …
    please

  33. What will Confessions, My Say, Gary, Victoria and the other Gillard supporters have to say tomorrow? 😉

  34. [Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Monday, June 4, 2012 at 12:05 am | Permalink
    Mod Lib: Gillard’s being propped up by Bill Shorten and the AWU – she’s completely beholden to union factional powerbrokers.]

    She knows she walks on thin ice…

    She left her ministers hanging to run to Howes feet and plead ignorance of her own policy! And yet, the “collective wisdom” here is that she is fab, and if she is unpopular it is all media bias or sexism!

    Well, that is apparently not going to change either, so even if you are right, its bye bye ALP!

  36. Phil the Greek looks fine fettle and seeing he is on a Red Ensign flagged boat he can swear to his heart’s content.

  40. TLM re Monarchy

    Louis Napoleon …. fraud and a kind of early fascists…who ruled France in the period from 1848-1870…when asked what was the first duty of the Monarch said …with a touch of truth

    …”His first dury is to amuse his subjects”

  41. Henry: Abbott ain’t gonna get dumped with a 2PP vote of 57%.
    On the other hand, a primary vote of 26% ain’t good for your girl.

  42. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll LIB Leader (Abbott/Turnbull/Hockey): Abbott 25 Turnbull 44 Hockey 24]

    Slipper can come back and vote for Tony at the next leadership vote 🙂

  43. @75 – yep, the political climate is different – the Abbot led Coalition is putting the ALP to the sword In the polls and unless there is a massive collapse in the Coalition 2PP he will lead them to victory.

  45. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll LIB Leader (A/T/H LIB voters): Abbott 37 (-5) Turnbull 34 (+4) Hockey 26 (+1) #auspol

  46. [Slipper can come back and vote for Tony at the next leadership vote]

    Speaking of which, Slipper would wipe the floor with Gillard!

  47. You are right that there is probably some ‘gaming’, but Labor needs to get back some votes currently parked with the Libs and this is showing a measure of how many would come across if Rudd was leader. I would not bet on its total accuracy but I suggest it does indicate Rudd would pull an immediate improvement of at least 8 in the 2PP.

    Bemused I have no doubt that Rudd would improve the situation in the opinion polls for Labor if he became leader (at least at first). But that is not the same thing as improving Labor’s performance at a future election.

    And people saying they will vote one way when asked in an opinion poll is not the same thing as being in the polling booth and actually voting. Opinion polls register something and they are not entirely without value, but they can be taken too literally.

    I think Labor’s best chance is to stick with Julia Gillard as leader and go the distance to the end of next year and hope that over that time they can build up doubts about Tony and his team of inadequate carbon blobs while at the same time trying to build the image of Julia as not popular but a fighter and determined – these are leadership qualities and in the right situation people may vote for her even though I don’t think they will ever love her.

  49. bemused

    [Check your facts. Idiots like my say and muttleymcgee were provocateurs today. Otherwise I had some enjoyable and informative discussions.]

    Do not see it that way,do not consider MY Say to be and idiot at all and when uses an ipad it has a spelling peculuarity,muttleymcgee have found to be humorous at times,as for yourself you seem to think when you put someone down it is gospel for all to believe.not here chum,suggest you get off your high horse,lot of people have something to contribute.

  50. Moral of the story: Kevin Rudd can win the next election for Labor, Turnball could win the next election for the Coalition if he’s up against the ranga, Gillard ain’t gonna beat Abbott or Turnball or Hockey.

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