GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 the previous month, with both parties down on the primary vote – Labor by two to 26% and the Coalition by one to 48%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 46-44. Nielsen also asked who would be preferred as prime minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott, with Rudd favoured 59-37, and who would be favoured as Liberal leader out of Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, with the former favoured 61-34. More to follow.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have taken a hit – down five on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 57% – while Julia Gillard’s are little changed, her approval up a point to 36% and her disapproval steady at 60%. On the state breakdowns, two aberrations from last time have ironed out: over the last three polls, Labor’s two-party vote in Victoria went from 51% to 54% to 50%, while in Queensland it went from 35% to 32% to 36%. It won’t do to read much into the smaller state results particularly, but I note Labor is only three points ahead of the Greens in Western Australia.
UPDATE: This week’s Essential Research survey has all parties steady on the primary vote — Coalition on 50%, Labor on 33%, Greens on 10% — but owing to the vagaries of rounding, two-party is back at 56-44 after a week at 57-43. Other questions focus on various aspects of the Craig Thomson matter: level of awareness (29% a lot, 30% some, 28% a little and 9% nothing), importance (30% very, 36% quite, 18% not very and 7% not at all), appropriateness of media coverage (43% too much, 8% too little, 35% not at all) and how various parties have handled the matter (bad news on all counts). The poll also finds a great many more deem corporations (54%) than ordinary Australians (5%) to have been the main beneficiaries of economic reform since the 1980s.
UPDATE 2: It seems Roy Morgan might now be making a habit of publishing its face-to-face results on Tuesday, having held back until Friday in the past. The latest result is very similar to that of a fortnight ago after a spike in the Coalition’s favour last week. Over the three weeks, two-party preferred has gone from 55-45 to 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences (and 58-42 to 61.5-38.5 to 58-42 on respondent allocation); Labor’s primary vote has gone from 32% to 27.5% to 32.5%; the Coalition’s has gone from 45.5% to 49% to 45%; and the Greens have gone from 10.5% to 13% and back to 10.5%.
In other news, Possum’s Pollytics is active again after a period of hibernation.
[Speaking of which, Slipper would wipe the floor with Gillard!]
Thomson has more community support then Gillard.
Mod Lib: Bob Katter would beat Gillard.
As for Katter and Slipper – both those guys are good mates of one K Rudd. Switch to Rudd, and Labor gets 2 extra votes on the floor of the lower house.
Yep Abbott finished.
Question is.
Who will replace him?
Libs are stuffed.
ywwe
Rummel: Problem for Thomson is that in the Newspoll, a majority don’t feel sorry for him.
deb
you are as GG described you
Henry @103 – how is Abbott finished? You’re making shit up.
Laura Tingle on Nielsen
http://www.afr.com/p/national/rudd_still_preferred_pm_Zfs56jEPIPjzsHtQWCXk8H
Seems like the AFR also reports Nielsen now.
Qualitative pollsters are no longer picking up the carbon tax as an issue.
In Queensland, Rudd is ahead of Abbott 60/38 whereas Gillard trails Abbott in Queensland 37/52
Hey Henry your fishing at the wrong hole, you only get a couple of nibbles here, but head over to the bolt blog and you’ll get so many nibbles you’ll p*&% yourself with excitement.
Thornleigh Labor Man
[Rummel: Problem for Thomson is that in the Newspoll, a majority don’t feel sorry for him.]
Has not stopped Gillard. No one has felt sorry for Gillard since Kev shed a tear in front of the cameras after he was taken out in the dead of night.
Enough of Kate.
Where’s Pippa?
Schnappi @ 99
The facts are there in the posts if you care to check them.
You stick with your idiot friends and enjoy yourself.
[Henry
Posted Monday, June 4, 2012 at 12:17 am | Permalink
Yep Abbott finished.]
I think you are right.
He has finished doing his job on Gillard just as he finished doing the job on Rudd!
LOL
102
It is looking like Katter will run as leader of the Katter Party and apart from parts of Queensland and the odd rural area in parts of other states, the ALP will come well ahead of the Katter Party.
It’s Queensland again – Gillard is toxic there.
Just think about this for a moment.
Abbott had Rudd on the run. Election loomed. Labor switched to Gillard who brought a huge bounce which deflated, but not enough to stop Labor retaining government.
Abbott then has Gillard on the run. Labor switch back to Rudd who brings a huge bounce which deflates, but, again, Labor retains government.
So, the man who supposedly destroyed two Labor PMs with untouchable political strategy actually bows out having spent his time in the sun being outmanoeuvred by them both. A man so utterly desperate for power comes within a whisker, twice, but ultimately fails.
How f*&#ing hilarious would that be?
[I think Labor’s best chance is to stick with Julia Gillard as leader and go the distance to the end of next year and hope that over that time they can build up doubts about Tony and his team of inadequate carbon blobs while at the same time trying to build the image of Julia as not popular but a fighter and determined – these are leadership qualities and in the right situation people may vote for her even though I don’t think they will ever love her.]
Prettymuch. I think its doable, even if it won’t be easy.
Henry – are you a hair dresser by chance?
How much longer can Bill Shorten tolerate this state of affairs? He’s the key.
Compact – Abbott is a goose.
Totally unelectable.
Thankfully the sensible among us realise that.
Compact – my wages could fund about 6 of you.
Goodnight all.
Jake – you could win Lotto, too
Will Turnbull step up?
Watch this space.
There’s an old PT boat. Bad luck they can’t wind her up.
Mod lib – feeling nervous?
Abbott is finished. Surely you realise that.
Offers nothing.
The Nielsen tables:
http://bit.ly/LW0M7f
[Jake – you could win Lotto, too]
Compact Crank,
Deep down, the scenario I described is the thing that terrifies you the most.
bemused
[Schnappi @ 99
The facts are there in the posts if you care to check them.
You stick with your idiot friends and enjoy yourself.]
So on your reckoning almost everyone I read in here is an idiot,except you,most stupid statement that have seen in here,hope all the idiots I read in here are not offended I read their idiot comments,Phsaw.
@119 Henry old boy, you might think whatever of Abbott but most voters prefer the Coalition.
[Henry
Posted Monday, June 4, 2012 at 12:27 am | Permalink
Mod lib – feeling nervous?
Abbott is finished. Surely you realise that.
Offers nothing.]
Nervous? Are you sipping the radiator juice or something? This is astonishingly good news for liberals.
No matter what idiocy our man gets up to we are still set for a 100 to 110 seat victory. LOL, nervous?
Abbott is finished? Now you are going to send me into palpitations, anyone but Abbott leading a multi-term liberal government is multiple orgasm territory for me…
Offers nothing? Quite true. Yet this is much much more popular amongst the voters than what Gillard is offering.
Don’t you get it? You have an albatross around your necks.
You gotta admire the blind faith of Gillardites like Henry and Gusface, misplaced as it is.:)
Ah, never fear, once July 1 comes around, Julia will triumph over all of the doubters…..and pigs might fly too. 😀
18 months to the election Compact.
We’re coming for you.
You support Abbott?
The gap is narrowing yes.
@127 really. I’d never had known. Thanks.
It would appear your deepest fear is Abbott leading the Coalition Victory.
Mod lib – Abbott is cactus.
You finally realise that?
Henry: You got it wrong……….Gillard is cactus.
How could anybody, seriously, follow the coalition?
Are you stupid?
What policies (ha ha) of theirs are worthy?
Please detail.
[It would appear your deepest fear is Abbott leading the Coalition Victory.]
It most certainly is.
@132 Henry
26% FP is not narrowing- that is Hiace Territory. Albo won’t even need a bus drivers licence.
Parsons, feeling nervous?
[Henry
Posted Monday, June 4, 2012 at 12:33 am | Permalink
Mod lib – Abbott is cactus.
You finally realise that?]
Yes Henry, I just crunched the numbers based on this ACN:
ALP 42 seats.
That is not including what they may/would lose in Tasmania as I don’t have that breakdown so it assumes no losses there (or ACT).
42 seats to 108 seats.
Cactus you say? I’ll have two then!
The good news is the ALP hold onto 2 seats in WA (by 1%)
Henry: My ideal scenario would involve Rudd and Turnball being reinstated as leaders of their respective political parties.
Abbott’s demise would please me greatly, as would Gillard’s. 🙂
Crank – you are a fraud, so like many of your liberal mates.
So you have no answer?
Typical.
Who will replace Äbbott – gufffaw.
Crazy. Just crazy.
The polls are everywhere at the moment.
Hartcher is even more incomprehensible than usual. Something about the entire country wanting to flee the country. Or something.
I’m not sure the constant polling is really very good for the nation, especially the bubble-gum polling on personalities. It just makes trouble, for both parties. We may as well have a poll about whether the punters prefer dogs to cats, or possums to bilbies… or maybe even bilbies to dogs or wombats to Italians.
It makes your head spin.
Mod Lib: Even in Victoria, it’s a 5% swing against Labor, which would mean the loss of 3 or 4 seats in that state…..and this is the one place in Australia where Julia has some popularity.
[I just crunched the numbers based on this ACN]
Mod,
You went to Antony Greens website and entered them into his calculator. That’s not quite “crunching the numbers”.
Evan – we don’t take you seriously.
Capishe?
@137 Jake – my biggest fear is not getting rid of the ridiculous CO2 Tax and transfer palaver.
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Monday, June 4, 2012 at 12:40 am | Permalink
Mod Lib: Even in Victoria, it’s a 5% swing against Labor, which would mean the loss of 3 or 4 seats in that state…..and this is the one place in Australia where Julia has some popularity.]
Corangamite
La trove
Deakin and
McEwen
Pity Nielsen didn’t provide a voting intention figure for Rudd vs Abbott. On these numbers, I think it’s clear given how far he’s ahead of Abbott on a preferred PM rating and previous polls that have shown a voting intention if Rudd was leader that he’d win back a significant amount of support.
The issues are the knifing and certainty. The price on carbon is only an issue in so far as it’s seen as being done via a formal deal with the Greens and that Gillard is seen to have lied about it