Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 the previous month, with both parties down on the primary vote – Labor by two to 26% and the Coalition by one to 48%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 46-44. Nielsen also asked who would be preferred as prime minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott, with Rudd favoured 59-37, and who would be favoured as Liberal leader out of Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, with the former favoured 61-34. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have taken a hit – down five on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 57% – while Julia Gillard’s are little changed, her approval up a point to 36% and her disapproval steady at 60%. On the state breakdowns, two aberrations from last time have ironed out: over the last three polls, Labor’s two-party vote in Victoria went from 51% to 54% to 50%, while in Queensland it went from 35% to 32% to 36%. It won’t do to read much into the smaller state results particularly, but I note Labor is only three points ahead of the Greens in Western Australia.

UPDATE: This week’s Essential Research survey has all parties steady on the primary vote — Coalition on 50%, Labor on 33%, Greens on 10% — but owing to the vagaries of rounding, two-party is back at 56-44 after a week at 57-43. Other questions focus on various aspects of the Craig Thomson matter: level of awareness (29% a lot, 30% some, 28% a little and 9% nothing), importance (30% very, 36% quite, 18% not very and 7% not at all), appropriateness of media coverage (43% too much, 8% too little, 35% not at all) and how various parties have handled the matter (bad news on all counts). The poll also finds a great many more deem corporations (54%) than ordinary Australians (5%) to have been the main beneficiaries of economic reform since the 1980s.

UPDATE 2: It seems Roy Morgan might now be making a habit of publishing its face-to-face results on Tuesday, having held back until Friday in the past. The latest result is very similar to that of a fortnight ago after a spike in the Coalition’s favour last week. Over the three weeks, two-party preferred has gone from 55-45 to 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences (and 58-42 to 61.5-38.5 to 58-42 on respondent allocation); Labor’s primary vote has gone from 32% to 27.5% to 32.5%; the Coalition’s has gone from 45.5% to 49% to 45%; and the Greens have gone from 10.5% to 13% and back to 10.5%.

In other news, Possum’s Pollytics is active again after a period of hibernation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,775 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Craig Emerson is really in the mood for slapping down fools today.

    ]Barnaby Joyce ‏@Barnaby_Joyce
    I wonder if Craig Emerson’s Phd supervisor asked for more attention to detail than what Craig provided in his Aus piece.]

    [Craig Emerson MP Craig Emerson MP ‏@CraigEmersonMP
    @Barnaby_Joyce My PhD supervisor was Professor Ross Garnaut, Barnaby. He never had much interest in fear campaigns, just academic rigour.]

  2. guytaur


    The Greens are hampered by a policy process which gives ordinary members too much say.

    This means that many of their policies are populist in nature rather than evidence based, driven by emotion rather than rationality.

    That’s borne out by their attitude to windfarms, for example, and also explains why they’re MIA on important environmental issues.

    I’m not accusing the Greens of overt racism, but certainly much of their policy agenda appears to be driven by fear of ‘others’.

    In the end, a fervent nationalism which puts the needs of Australians ahead of those of other countries – which their FO policy does, as you have demonstrated – particularly when those fears have no rational grounds – as in the case of their FO policy – is just a racist in sentiment as overt xenophobia.

    Much of the Greens policy agenda – again, think of their attitudes to logging and to Gunns’ pulp mill – is based on the idea that it’s OK if something happens overseas, it’s not OK if it happens here.

    In other words, we don’t care if ‘they’ have their forests clear felled, as long as ours aren’t. We don’t care if ‘they’ have a pulp mill, as long as we don’t.

    In this case, we don’t mind if ‘they’ starve.

  3. As it seems to be a day for quoting unnamed sources while talking about wildlife here’s a rumour.

    North Coast Voices ran a good post about the O’Farrell government allowing shooters into NSW natioanl parks. A comment attached said that NPWS workers were saying they had been told to stop putting out traps for feral animals so hunters would have more to kill.

  4. The Coalition backwards march through their beat-up topics continues apace, as the ALP progressively shut them off. Thomson? No. Carbon Tax? No. Slipper? No. Leadership? No. Boats? No. NBN? No. New policy! Don’t be silly. Oh all right, boats then, we’ll find something new on boats.

    That takes them back to issues they were trying to beat up around September/October last year. They’re having another go at it thanks to the Captain Emad stuff. Soon enough they’ll figure out it’s a dead end too, thanks to the Malaysia Solution impasse they created.

    So what next? BER? Batts? They’ve been getting a bit of a mention lately.

  5. [This means that many of their policies are populist in nature rather than evidence based, driven by emotion rather than rationality]
    Yes it is hilarious that the Greens accept climate science, but reject science on things like genetically modified foods, or the use of nuclear power.

    It just shows that even the Greens have certain dogmas that haven’t changed given the evidence, just like people that deny global warming.

  6. A great article by Shaun Carney today. The ALP must reform how can Unions who have a membership of 18% of the workforce still have 50% control of the ALP. It is critical for this to change to a percentage of 20% max. Crean reduced it by 10% and suffered the consequence but reform is vital for the parties future.

  7. spec

    from my POV, Crean was not undone by his reforms, but by his failure to actually back them up in practise.

    For example, he brought in rules about the length of time someone had to be a party member before seeking preselection, but then let the factions who were supporting him break these rules with impunity.

    I thought the world of Crean and still think he would have made a good PM, but he failed to assert his authority over his backers, and that got a lot of ordinary members off side.

    I’m speaking from a Victorian perspective, of course, but it got to the point where the party was so dysfunctional that the factional grouping supporting Crean simply had to be rolled – and that meant that Crean went too.

  8. Been out getting groceries so way behind and catching up.

    Rossmore @ 7676

    GG I’m not interested in a scrap today, another time maybe.

    Wise choice. GG is one of those who delights in starting a verbal brawl, teh more vicious the better it seems.

    WeWantPaul @ 7680

    Kevin Rudd seems to have gotten carried away by the visit of Pope Benedict XVI.

    It never ceases to amaze me how this fascinates people so much and so long. And the desperate absolutely pathetic ongoing need / obsession of the Gillardista’s to vilify Rudd is just as terrible as the restorationists desperate and pathetic hope to restore, some, any labor glory with a return to Kevin who led us so well and to a great victory, so recently, um opps no 5 years ago.

    They are both Good Labor PM’s and both are better on their worst day than Howard was on his very best.

    Well said. Slag off Rudd and then when it draws a reaction squeal like a bunch of little girlies “RUDDSTORATION!!! RUDDSTORATION!!!” Truly pathetic but standard MO.

    victoria @ 7693


    Great tribute to online bullies

    Yep! Posted by one of the main offenders and approved by she who will join in once a pack has formed.

    liyana @ 7696

    ahhh GG, instead of wading through google, not knowing who or what was responsible for the content, I thought that the knowledgeable folks here might be able to save me time, or tell me about, shock! horror! a good book on the subject.


    Try “The Split” by Robert Murray. A while since I have read anything on the subject. There are quite a few around but all are partisan to a greater or lesser extent.

    What GG says about Chris Curtis is correct. Chris seems a decent fellow from the times I have met him and is now an ALP member. I don’t agree with some of his defences of the DLP but I guess he has a position to defend. He writes some good stuff on education.

  9. DodgyPapers report $350k in legal fees, perhaps someone can tell them why ? It is Coalition/Media damning Thompson.

  10. Barnaby has had a Rolls Royce education, so why does he talk like an uneducated fool?

    I can only conclude that he’s bunging it on to appeal to less urbane types. Quite patronising to his constituents if true, I would’ve thought.

  11. Still on the HR Nicholls website, that Kathy Jackson will be “after dinner speaker” next Tuesday 12th. Her topic will be “How to influence the legal system”

    Interesting. If you click on the conference agenda, she’s not listed. However, they are listing a:

    Guest Speaker: TBC, but guaranteed not to be missed!

    I think she may have been removed, and they’re scrabbling about for someone to replace her.

  12. confessions

    [Barnaby has had a Rolls Royce education, so why does he talk like an uneducated fool?

    I can only conclude that he’s bunging it on to appeal to less urbane types. Quite patronising to his constituents if true, I would’ve thought.]

    One of my favourite songs is “Hello Country Bumpkin” however these days farmers,agriculturists etc, have degrees,barnaby thinks all his national party members are country bumpkins,so he talks down to his party members,will people of other parties really want him as acting PM,Whew.

  13. victoria @ 7714

    Remember KJ has a few staunch supporters who happen to be Federal Labor Senators

    Yes, the same ones that have shown remarkably poor judgement on other matters.

    That will be the only solace I find when one of them exits the Senate at the next election.

    confessions @ 7742

    Quite frankly, the ‘Emmo should stop tweeting now’ brigade only demonstrate their luddite qualities by demanding that Labor not embrace this technology.

    Stop making shit up. No-one has said that. The issue under discussion was whether MINISTERS should be devoting so much effort to twitter. No-one has said the ALP shouldn’t.

  14. [As for CSG, I’m still on the fence. I need to be convinced that it as bad for the environment as the energy sources it replaces. (It may well be, but I’m still to see evidence)]

    1. Zoom, natural gas has been as a fuel & power source in Q since 1900 (Roma). The switch-over from industrial to natural gas in Q cities south of the Tropic etc began with 1969’s Roma Gas-fields to Briz pipeline. In Q conditions the switch of power stations to natural- & CSG should significantly lower Q’s carbon emissions. However, there are environmental concerns – which I posted on at length when this was still a sleeper issue.

    2. It’s often difficult to separate genuine environmental problems (usually in specific areas/ under specific conditions) from the wildly hysterical claims being made mainly for political purposes, inc to achieve better financial outcomes for farmers.

    In a state where natural gas has been successfully and safely piped for 43 years from Roma to cities between SEQ (inc Briz) to Rockhampton, to be augmented by planned pipes from CQ Dawson Basin, most concerns about Surat Basin ->Gladstone pipeline’s environmental safety are likely to belong to the “wildly hysterical” class.

    Used in China, however, effects on carbon pollution are contested because CSG-fired powerhouses will, in the main, add to China’s chronically inadequate power supply, rather than replace heavy-polluting stations. The advantage will be in the difference in emissions between CSG stations and coal-fired ones. There are suggestions that step 1 in converting the worst & oldest polluters is to switch to Oz’s “cleaner” coal while powerhouses are replaced or renovated (the old ones were/ are appalling).

    CSG, used in China as it is in Q – for heating, cooking etc – might do something to address problems created by coal-for-all-uses, inc open coal-filled braziers used for domestic heating, coal-fired cooking stoves etc which, with dirty-coal power stations can lead to London-1950s-like killer smogs.

    Hope that helps!

  15. ShowsON noted:

    [Barnyard asks Emerson if his Ph.D. supervisor demanded attention to detail. Emerson replies that his Ph.D. supervisor was Professor Ross Garnaut, who didn’t think much of scare campaigns.]

    Yes, more egg on the face for Barnaby there. I recall him once saying that he used Productivity Commission reports as toilet paper. Perhaps he should get out the last one in his possession and try wiping his face.

  16. Bushfire Bill
    Posted Saturday, June 9, 2012 at 11:13 am | Permalink

    What irks me is that in the last week or so the press pack has herded itself to the other side of the ship to correct the now noticeable list to starboard that it has created all by itself.

    They’ve suddenly discovered that the economy has been being talked down for political reasons.

    They’ve suddenly twigged that, as a short term tactic, it isn’t too bad an idea but, over the long term, the chronic ennui it has created is feeding back on itself, turning the nation into a chronic confidence basket case.

    Who knew?

    The weekend AFR is just the opposite, still LABOR = BAD.

    Most articles well into the front are LABOR = BAD one way or another.

    1000 word editorial – LABOR = BAD.

    Journo after journo – LABOR = BAD.

    Worse than the OO if that possible.

    Every attempt being made to drown out a week of really upbeat economic data.

    Stutchbury must really have had a dose of the shits last night.

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