Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 the previous month, with both parties down on the primary vote – Labor by two to 26% and the Coalition by one to 48%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 46-44. Nielsen also asked who would be preferred as prime minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott, with Rudd favoured 59-37, and who would be favoured as Liberal leader out of Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, with the former favoured 61-34. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have taken a hit – down five on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 57% – while Julia Gillard’s are little changed, her approval up a point to 36% and her disapproval steady at 60%. On the state breakdowns, two aberrations from last time have ironed out: over the last three polls, Labor’s two-party vote in Victoria went from 51% to 54% to 50%, while in Queensland it went from 35% to 32% to 36%. It won’t do to read much into the smaller state results particularly, but I note Labor is only three points ahead of the Greens in Western Australia.

UPDATE: This week’s Essential Research survey has all parties steady on the primary vote — Coalition on 50%, Labor on 33%, Greens on 10% — but owing to the vagaries of rounding, two-party is back at 56-44 after a week at 57-43. Other questions focus on various aspects of the Craig Thomson matter: level of awareness (29% a lot, 30% some, 28% a little and 9% nothing), importance (30% very, 36% quite, 18% not very and 7% not at all), appropriateness of media coverage (43% too much, 8% too little, 35% not at all) and how various parties have handled the matter (bad news on all counts). The poll also finds a great many more deem corporations (54%) than ordinary Australians (5%) to have been the main beneficiaries of economic reform since the 1980s.

UPDATE 2: It seems Roy Morgan might now be making a habit of publishing its face-to-face results on Tuesday, having held back until Friday in the past. The latest result is very similar to that of a fortnight ago after a spike in the Coalition’s favour last week. Over the three weeks, two-party preferred has gone from 55-45 to 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences (and 58-42 to 61.5-38.5 to 58-42 on respondent allocation); Labor’s primary vote has gone from 32% to 27.5% to 32.5%; the Coalition’s has gone from 45.5% to 49% to 45%; and the Greens have gone from 10.5% to 13% and back to 10.5%.

In other news, Possum’s Pollytics is active again after a period of hibernation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,775 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. zoomster

    I referred you to Climate Change science. I referred you to the IPCC. Those are rational based science arguments. Ones I do not need to rehash here. You can go and look for yourself.

  2. [The {NSW} Treasurer, Mike Baird, said yesterday the government faced ”immense challenges” due to the collapse of GST revenue but promised ”a whole range of initiatives across infrastructure” would be included in Tuesday’s budget.

    This is what happens when you continue to connive to talk the economy down on a fool’s errand to satisfy the bogan shock jocks’ desire for an immediate election, even when you know it can’t and won’t happen.

    Onc ethe public twigs that this is what Abbott has been doing their revenge will be terrible.

  3. lilyana – it was an awful blowup between the Bishop Mannix/Santamaria people and the rest of the Labor Party – I guess you could say a bit of left/right. It all happened in Victoria and being a South Aussie I was a bit young at the time and remote from it.

    Google Mannix/Santamaria and the full history shld be there. I have to go out otherwise I’d try to find some for you. Cheers

  4. [David Donovan @davrosz 20m
    “Kathy Jackson complained that the SMH reported that her solicitors were sacked by her, but she said they were unavailable, not sacked.”]

    Why are her Solicitors unavailable to act for her??

  5. [David Donovan @davrosz 20m
    “Kathy Jackson complained that the SMH reported that her solicitors were sacked by her, but she said they were unavailable, not sacked.”]

    Kathy Jackson has to start learning that just because she says something, doesn’t mean it’s true.

  6. vic,

    It seems the further revelations regarding Ms Jackson are starting to make the Libs and other supporting entities a little nervous as to where it is all leading and what may be the final outcome.

  7. GG

    I would say that Ms Jackson has her tenacles in both the Lib and Labor camps. Both sides of politics are not benefitting at all from Ms Jackson

  8. BB

    Kathy Jackson has to start learning that just because she says something, doesn’t mean it’s true.

    … ROTFL 😛

  9. zoomster

    In all you have said you have not proven charges of racism in the Greens.
    You will not. This is because the Greens are not racist. So you need to rethink that line of attack.
    Emerson is attacking Barnaby Joyce for highlighting the Chinese. His motives are different from the Greens.

  10. [Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 2m
    @geeksrulz You might have gleaned I’m a bit sick of ABC running coalition agenda. They hate good news and proper policy debate.]

  11. Guytaur

    I’m scarcely disputing whether or not cc is real!

    One thing being true does not mean another is.

    I ask you again – is there any evidence that foreign ownership of land is a threat to food security?

    If there isn’t, then both the Greens and the Nats are scaremongering.

    As for CSG, I’m still on the fence. I need to be convinced that it as bad for the environment as the energy sources it replaces. (It may well be, but I’m still to see evidence)

  12. joe2

    It confirms that we bludgers are not paranoid fools. We could see the msm agenda a mile away talking down the economy , and the ABC becoming the coalition talking points medium. It is only now dawning on many others that this indeed has been the case from the get go.

  13. Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 2m
    @geeksrulz You might have gleaned I’m a bit sick of ABC running coalition agenda. They hate good news and proper policy debate.]


    Love it.

  14. This is how the Liberals changed the ABC to what it is now: by complaining long and loud about its supposed left-wing bias.

    The govt has every right to complain that our public broadcaster eschews substantive reporting of things that actually are important in favour of the sideshow fluff which occupies the obsessions of the tabloids.

    Full marks to Dr Emerson.

  15. Oh, and as for racism….

    If there is no evidence that FO is any worse for the country now than it was fifty years ago, when the foreigners were British, then that has to be thrown into the mix, particularly as it appears the Greens and the Nats are after the same constituents.

    If the policy is basically the same, it’s logical to believe the underlying rationale for it is also the same, however it is dressed up.

    The whole point of the PC movement was to bring home to us that even those who fervently believe they are doing the right thing can be acting and thinking in ways which contradict that.

    If China – a country which arguably has done more to tackle over population than any other – is looking to the future needs of its people, then I can’t see anything wrong with that.

    If it chooses to provide for them by purchasing land overseas, rather than invading other countries, I can’t see anything wrong with that.

    China, or any other country, buying land in Australia is not a problem, either now or in the foreseeable future – and, as has been pointed out already, if it was, such land could be nationalized or compulsorily acquired overnight.

  16. zoomster

    The effects of Climate Change and its impact on growing areas is the reason. IF you do not dispute that then you come to the same point as me. That is such changes have to be managed. Remember my first sentence in reply to you. I think these are the Greens reason. As I said I am not a Greens spokesperson. You want that level of confirmation you need to go and look at official on the record statements about this.
    I agree with the general thrust of the policy until better policy has been presented to me.
    No one has so far.
    Note I vote for the Greens on general not particular grounds. That is for environment, for social inclusion and equality, for building infrastructure etc. All from a sound economic base of course. IF they turn out to be wrong on a policy that does not mean I am going to change my vote in a hurry.
    I vote for the Greens because I feel they are superior to the Labor Party on these issues.

  17. Schnappi

    What Abbott is saying that women on welfare who have children, do not suffer a reduction in income, as opposed to a woman who works, taking leave to have a child. I would not even dignify him with a response. This man is sick to the core





  19. confessions

    I do. In fact to be honest I do not think they ever were. They were just a good media narrative to take advantage of racism. A trojan horse policy. Now racism is dying down without the government stoking it so is the trojan horse boat policy,

  20. Geez that abc lets abbott go on they look like they enjoy his company

    So he is back to boats, he looks shorter has he shrunk
    Notice he will now turn boats arou d where its safe to do so,

    The remark about policing yesterda was my biggest scary bit

    Thank goodness my oh switche him ff

  21. [confessions

    I do. In fact to be honest I do not think they ever were. They were just a good media narrative to take advantage of racism. A trojan horse policy. Now racism is dying down without the government stoking it so is the trojan horse boat policy,]

    To me, “The Boats” was a contrivance.

    The media declared “The Boats” was a battleground, for no great reason (as we know that not many people come here on boats) and then set the rules.

    Kinda like forcing the classic singer on The Voice to do Funk. Just to see what happens.

  22. Gaytaur.
    The Nationals are not “johnny come lately” to foreign ownership scares. The only thing new is that it is the Chinese they are demonising. In the 70s and early 80s it was the Japanese, hence Joh BJs discomfort re the Iwasaki resort deal near Rocky.
    On another point, scaremongers like to emphasise the total acreage owned by foreigners, as though any one acre was the same as another. Absolute rubbish of course. Very large properties are usually very large bacause for reasons of either fertility and/or water they need to be to be economic. A hundred acres on the Atherton Tableland is equal to many thousands of acres in western Qld, and in the main foreigners own large chunks of relatively marginal land.

  23. MC

    I said The Ntionals are Johnny come lately to food security as an issue. The point you make highlights the diffferreent motives of the Nationals and Greens

  24. So when the Nats talk about FO they’re racist, when the Greens do they’re concerned about food security….even when they both are going after the same target audience.

    I repeat – where is the evidence that FO of land is a threat to food security?

    That CC is a threat to food security is true. That FO is is demonstrably false.

    Of course, the Greens are never going to admit that their policies are in any way racist.

  25. [Some mentioned Craig Emmerson on twitter here this morning,well this old article shows emmo got up bolts nose,so emmo is getting the message across in twitter,more should use it.]

    Absolutely. He’s doing a great job, and should continue.

    Twitter is a reality, whether people like it or not. But it’s also a great communication tool, if used effectively. Quite frankly, the ‘Emmo should stop tweeting now’ brigade only demonstrate their luddite qualities by demanding that Labor not embrace this technology.

  26. Libs desperate for stunts!

    You beat me to that one, GG! Too cold to go out & pick up the paper earlier. The dead tree version states

    [Rats take bite or two out of NBN
    Are rat colonies sinking their teeth into the vast stretch of the National broadband linking Toowoomba to Dalby.
    Will the $36 billion network become a smorgasbord for rodents?]
    (all as printed, punctuation and all)

    But inside and you find:

    [A source close to the telecommunications industry claims the company in charge of the network’s roll-out failed to lay rodent-proof cables in a bid to cut costs.

    He said contractors were being brought in to replace long stretches of cables that had been mauled by rodents between Toowoomba and Dalby.]

    Ah, hah! Not an actual fact, just an unnamed source, not even “in” but only “close to”, “claims”.

    Better still, not laid to government specifications, but company in charge of the network’s roll-out failed to lay rodent-proof cables in a bid to cut costs; meaning the company, not taxpayers, will foot the bill.

    IOW, it’s a beat-up! Not the only one this week, though!

    Tuesday’s Headline $1.2 million tax hits TRC

    “WILL hit”? Er, NO.

    [the carbon tax is expected to coat at least an extra $1.2 million a year]

    Evidence that this is so? Er, NO! But there’s this:

    [The final dollar figure is elusive with reports from other local governments throughout Queensland varying from manageable to astronomical …

    “It is particularly concerning the Council will have to accept a carbon tax liability from July 1 without a definitive calculation of the costs involved]

    So the”final figure” isn’t $2.1 million; there isn’t a final figure cos it’s “elusive”. It might even be “manageable” ie much less.

    IOW. this is another of those extravagantly over-the-top claims the Opposition aired in Parliament & Combet shot down 5-6 days before this article was printed – and may bear little if any relationship to the actual figures.

    Do I need to say Mayor and many Council members successfully ran on a Liberal Ticket?

    TWO hysterical antiGovernment beat-ups in the same week; one NBN, the other Carbon price. I can only assume Liberal party polling isn’t positive, focus groups aren’t positive, and Liberals are starting to panic!

  27. Mr stephens wtte not to talk down the economy got on the second page here
    Surprised to see it at al l

    Of course he mentioned no names

  28. Hilarious exchange between Craig Emerson and Barnyard Joyce on Twitter.

    Barnyard asks Emerson if his Ph.D. supervisor demanded attention to detail.

    Emerson replies that his Ph.D. supervisor was Professor Ross Garnaut, who didn’t think much of scare campaigns.

  29. zoomster

    Do not make declatory statements. You wantt to call the Greens racist prove it.
    I think it makes you look very silly. Racist is not a label you can attach to the Greens. Their record speaks for itself

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