GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 the previous month, with both parties down on the primary vote Labor by two to 26% and the Coalition by one to 48%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 46-44. Nielsen also asked who would be preferred as prime minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott, with Rudd favoured 59-37, and who would be favoured as Liberal leader out of Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, with the former favoured 61-34. More to follow.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have taken a hit down five on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 57% while Julia Gillard’s are little changed, her approval up a point to 36% and her disapproval steady at 60%. On the state breakdowns, two aberrations from last time have ironed out: over the last three polls, Labor’s two-party vote in Victoria went from 51% to 54% to 50%, while in Queensland it went from 35% to 32% to 36%. It won’t do to read much into the smaller state results particularly, but I note Labor is only three points ahead of the Greens in Western Australia.
UPDATE: This week’s Essential Research survey has all parties steady on the primary vote — Coalition on 50%, Labor on 33%, Greens on 10% — but owing to the vagaries of rounding, two-party is back at 56-44 after a week at 57-43. Other questions focus on various aspects of the Craig Thomson matter: level of awareness (29% a lot, 30% some, 28% a little and 9% nothing), importance (30% very, 36% quite, 18% not very and 7% not at all), appropriateness of media coverage (43% too much, 8% too little, 35% not at all) and how various parties have handled the matter (bad news on all counts). The poll also finds a great many more deem corporations (54%) than ordinary Australians (5%) to have been the main beneficiaries of economic reform since the 1980s.
UPDATE 2: It seems Roy Morgan might now be making a habit of publishing its face-to-face results on Tuesday, having held back until Friday in the past. The latest result is very similar to that of a fortnight ago after a spike in the Coalition’s favour last week. Over the three weeks, two-party preferred has gone from 55-45 to 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences (and 58-42 to 61.5-38.5 to 58-42 on respondent allocation); Labor’s primary vote has gone from 32% to 27.5% to 32.5%; the Coalition’s has gone from 45.5% to 49% to 45%; and the Greens have gone from 10.5% to 13% and back to 10.5%.
In other news, Possum’s Pollytics is active again after a period of hibernation.
7,775 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”
Craig Emerson is really in the mood for slapping down fools today.
]Barnaby Joyce @Barnaby_Joyce
I wonder if Craig Emerson’s Phd supervisor asked for more attention to detail than what Craig provided in his Aus piece.]
[Craig Emerson MP Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP
@Barnaby_Joyce My PhD supervisor was Professor Ross Garnaut, Barnaby. He never had much interest in fear campaigns, just academic rigour.]
Shanahan relying on un-named sources again.
He never learns.
The Greens are hampered by a policy process which gives ordinary members too much say.
This means that many of their policies are populist in nature rather than evidence based, driven by emotion rather than rationality.
That’s borne out by their attitude to windfarms, for example, and also explains why they’re MIA on important environmental issues.
I’m not accusing the Greens of overt racism, but certainly much of their policy agenda appears to be driven by fear of ‘others’.
In the end, a fervent nationalism which puts the needs of Australians ahead of those of other countries – which their FO policy does, as you have demonstrated – particularly when those fears have no rational grounds – as in the case of their FO policy – is just a racist in sentiment as overt xenophobia.
Much of the Greens policy agenda – again, think of their attitudes to logging and to Gunns’ pulp mill – is based on the idea that it’s OK if something happens overseas, it’s not OK if it happens here.
In other words, we don’t care if ‘they’ have their forests clear felled, as long as ours aren’t. We don’t care if ‘they’ have a pulp mill, as long as we don’t.
In this case, we don’t mind if ‘they’ starve.
As it seems to be a day for quoting unnamed sources while talking about wildlife here’s a rumour.
North Coast Voices ran a good post about the O’Farrell government allowing shooters into NSW natioanl parks. A comment attached said that NPWS workers were saying they had been told to stop putting out traps for feral animals so hunters would have more to kill.
The Coalition backwards march through their beat-up topics continues apace, as the ALP progressively shut them off. Thomson? No. Carbon Tax? No. Slipper? No. Leadership? No. Boats? No. NBN? No. New policy! Don’t be silly. Oh all right, boats then, we’ll find something new on boats.
That takes them back to issues they were trying to beat up around September/October last year. They’re having another go at it thanks to the Captain Emad stuff. Soon enough they’ll figure out it’s a dead end too, thanks to the Malaysia Solution impasse they created.
So what next? BER? Batts? They’ve been getting a bit of a mention lately.
[This means that many of their policies are populist in nature rather than evidence based, driven by emotion rather than rationality]
Yes it is hilarious that the Greens accept climate science, but reject science on things like genetically modified foods, or the use of nuclear power.
It just shows that even the Greens have certain dogmas that haven’t changed given the evidence, just like people that deny global warming.
A great article by Shaun Carney today. The ALP must reform how can Unions who have a membership of 18% of the workforce still have 50% control of the ALP. It is critical for this to change to a percentage of 20% max. Crean reduced it by 10% and suffered the consequence but reform is vital for the parties future.
The mathematical genius of Bananaby Joyce. With cameo appearances by PJK and Tony Windsor.
I love the cameo by PJK!
from my POV, Crean was not undone by his reforms, but by his failure to actually back them up in practise.
For example, he brought in rules about the length of time someone had to be a party member before seeking preselection, but then let the factions who were supporting him break these rules with impunity.
I thought the world of Crean and still think he would have made a good PM, but he failed to assert his authority over his backers, and that got a lot of ordinary members off side.
I’m speaking from a Victorian perspective, of course, but it got to the point where the party was so dysfunctional that the factional grouping supporting Crean simply had to be rolled – and that meant that Crean went too.
Been out getting groceries so way behind and catching up.
Rossmore @ 7676
Wise choice. GG is one of those who delights in starting a verbal brawl, teh more vicious the better it seems.
WeWantPaul @ 7680
Well said. Slag off Rudd and then when it draws a reaction squeal like a bunch of little girlies “RUDDSTORATION!!! RUDDSTORATION!!!” Truly pathetic but standard MO.
victoria @ 7693
Yep! Posted by one of the main offenders and approved by she who will join in once a pack has formed.
liyana @ 7696
Try “The Split” by Robert Murray. A while since I have read anything on the subject. There are quite a few around but all are partisan to a greater or lesser extent.
What GG says about Chris Curtis is correct. Chris seems a decent fellow from the times I have met him and is now an ALP member. I don’t agree with some of his defences of the DLP but I guess he has a position to defend. He writes some good stuff on education.
DodgyPapers report $350k in legal fees, perhaps someone can tell them why ? It is Coalition/Media damning Thompson.
Still on the HR Nicholls website, that Kathy Jackson will be “after dinner speaker” next Tuesday 12th. Her topic will be “How to influence the legal system”
Barnaby has had a Rolls Royce education, so why does he talk like an uneducated fool?
I can only conclude that he’s bunging it on to appeal to less urbane types. Quite patronising to his constituents if true, I would’ve thought.
Interesting. If you click on the conference agenda, she’s not listed. However, they are listing a:
I think she may have been removed, and they’re scrabbling about for someone to replace her.
[Barnaby has had a Rolls Royce education, so why does he talk like an uneducated fool?
I can only conclude that he’s bunging it on to appeal to less urbane types. Quite patronising to his constituents if true, I would’ve thought.]
One of my favourite songs is “Hello Country Bumpkin” however these days farmers,agriculturists etc, have degrees,barnaby thinks all his national party members are country bumpkins,so he talks down to his party members,will people of other parties really want him as acting PM,Whew.
victoria @ 7714
Yes, the same ones that have shown remarkably poor judgement on other matters.
That will be the only solace I find when one of them exits the Senate at the next election.
confessions @ 7742
Stop making shit up. No-one has said that. The issue under discussion was whether MINISTERS should be devoting so much effort to twitter. No-one has said the ALP shouldn’t.
[As for CSG, I’m still on the fence. I need to be convinced that it as bad for the environment as the energy sources it replaces. (It may well be, but I’m still to see evidence)]
1. Zoom, natural gas has been as a fuel & power source in Q since 1900 (Roma). The switch-over from industrial to natural gas in Q cities south of the Tropic etc began with 1969’s Roma Gas-fields to Briz pipeline. In Q conditions the switch of power stations to natural- & CSG should significantly lower Q’s carbon emissions. However, there are environmental concerns – which I posted on at length when this was still a sleeper issue.
2. It’s often difficult to separate genuine environmental problems (usually in specific areas/ under specific conditions) from the wildly hysterical claims being made mainly for political purposes, inc to achieve better financial outcomes for farmers.
In a state where natural gas has been successfully and safely piped for 43 years from Roma to cities between SEQ (inc Briz) to Rockhampton, to be augmented by planned pipes from CQ Dawson Basin, most concerns about Surat Basin ->Gladstone pipeline’s environmental safety are likely to belong to the “wildly hysterical” class.
Used in China, however, effects on carbon pollution are contested because CSG-fired powerhouses will, in the main, add to China’s chronically inadequate power supply, rather than replace heavy-polluting stations. The advantage will be in the difference in emissions between CSG stations and coal-fired ones. There are suggestions that step 1 in converting the worst & oldest polluters is to switch to Oz’s “cleaner” coal while powerhouses are replaced or renovated (the old ones were/ are appalling).
CSG, used in China as it is in Q – for heating, cooking etc – might do something to address problems created by coal-for-all-uses, inc open coal-filled braziers used for domestic heating, coal-fired cooking stoves etc which, with dirty-coal power stations can lead to London-1950s-like killer smogs.
Hope that helps!
[Barnyard asks Emerson if his Ph.D. supervisor demanded attention to detail. Emerson replies that his Ph.D. supervisor was Professor Ross Garnaut, who didn’t think much of scare campaigns.]
Yes, more egg on the face for Barnaby there. I recall him once saying that he used Productivity Commission reports as toilet paper. Perhaps he should get out the last one in his possession and try wiping his face.
BW – I’m ‘wRONg.’
Consider it retracted.
Concera Vota @conceravota
Sick of Abbott’s SSOs during Question Time? Sign the petition!
The weekend AFR is just the opposite, still LABOR = BAD.
Most articles well into the front are LABOR = BAD one way or another.
1000 word editorial – LABOR = BAD.
Journo after journo – LABOR = BAD.
Worse than the OO if that possible.
Every attempt being made to drown out a week of really upbeat economic data.
Stutchbury must really have had a dose of the shits last night.
This is really hilarious, #TheirABC complains about Shanana of #Newscorpse about using
“un-named sources” http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2012/06/09/3521828.htm pot kettle
who finally won the ballot?