GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 the previous month, with both parties down on the primary vote – Labor by two to 26% and the Coalition by one to 48%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 46-44. Nielsen also asked who would be preferred as prime minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott, with Rudd favoured 59-37, and who would be favoured as Liberal leader out of Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, with the former favoured 61-34. More to follow.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have taken a hit – down five on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 57% – while Julia Gillard’s are little changed, her approval up a point to 36% and her disapproval steady at 60%. On the state breakdowns, two aberrations from last time have ironed out: over the last three polls, Labor’s two-party vote in Victoria went from 51% to 54% to 50%, while in Queensland it went from 35% to 32% to 36%. It won’t do to read much into the smaller state results particularly, but I note Labor is only three points ahead of the Greens in Western Australia.
UPDATE: This week’s Essential Research survey has all parties steady on the primary vote — Coalition on 50%, Labor on 33%, Greens on 10% — but owing to the vagaries of rounding, two-party is back at 56-44 after a week at 57-43. Other questions focus on various aspects of the Craig Thomson matter: level of awareness (29% a lot, 30% some, 28% a little and 9% nothing), importance (30% very, 36% quite, 18% not very and 7% not at all), appropriateness of media coverage (43% too much, 8% too little, 35% not at all) and how various parties have handled the matter (bad news on all counts). The poll also finds a great many more deem corporations (54%) than ordinary Australians (5%) to have been the main beneficiaries of economic reform since the 1980s.
UPDATE 2: It seems Roy Morgan might now be making a habit of publishing its face-to-face results on Tuesday, having held back until Friday in the past. The latest result is very similar to that of a fortnight ago after a spike in the Coalition’s favour last week. Over the three weeks, two-party preferred has gone from 55-45 to 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences (and 58-42 to 61.5-38.5 to 58-42 on respondent allocation); Labor’s primary vote has gone from 32% to 27.5% to 32.5%; the Coalition’s has gone from 45.5% to 49% to 45%; and the Greens have gone from 10.5% to 13% and back to 10.5%.
In other news, Possum’s Pollytics is active again after a period of hibernation.
Hi William! 🙂
Labor don’t win anything with a primary vote of 26%.
Rudd beats Abbott by more than 20 points.
It’s fairly obvious who gives Federal Labor the better prospect of holding on to power at the 2013 election…….and it ain’t Gillard.
Abbott finished.
Good.
Keep punching Julia.
oh no! Parsons alert!!
henry
i note with interest that TP EPP and sundry others didnt vote on the thommo thing
#theyjustare
bemused
When my say keeps making snarky comments about others here she will get fire returned.
Or do you regard her as some kind of protected species?
LSLs analysis was right on the mark]
No it is not , lsl was not ,and you should have been banned not the big cat you have been shit stirring for weeks,
Hi Evan!
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Preferred LIB Leader: Abbott 34 Turnbull 61 #auspol
Henry Abbott won’t be finished while the Coalition holds a comfortable 2PP position. Not sure how but he is still preferred PM over Gillard.
Unless the polls change Labor has to be the ones to blink first.
This is a good poll for Gillard?
Only in the sense that she’s marginally less unpopular than Abbott, if you call that grounds for celebration! 😀
Thanks Gus:
The news just gets better and better!
Yippee 😉
Mod Lib,
I am really – and I mean that seriously – interested: what do you understand by “liberal”?
(BTW, you won’t get any reply from me to whatever you say until tomorrow, so take your time if you need it – I am in urgent need of sleep.)
26% – Winning!
I am glad my emotional equilibrium is not dependent on the polls.
Today was a great day to be out in the fresh air. Flocks of sulphur-crested cockatoos, galahs, rainbow lorikeets and corellas flying overhead… squawking, raucous cries…reminded me of PB 🙂
Julia is still dragging Run Rabbott Run back. Inch by inch the ALP are getting him. The Rudd stuff is just, “Look over there, a bright shiny thing!”
[Hi Evan!]
maybe u 2 should get a room
Oh goody. Lets go back to Rudd vs Turnbull and get Godwin out of the woodwork.
David, the trend is your friend.
Abbott in decline as preferred PM.
Undeniable.
mod bib
I dont share your obvious tumescence
whats good about abbott bein creamed by turnbull?
Loving the Jubilee Pageant on Sky.
Kate is stonking.
Hopefully Harry will wip out the Sabre and knock the top off a few bottles of frog champagne like a fine young Cavalry Officer.
[Spur it aint going to happen.
The Ruddstoration is over and thank Dawkins for that.
Rudd is now a footnote in history – and that’s a good thing.]
Bwah hahahaha ha ha. hahaha
What I find truly amazing, and after the massive effort of character assassination of Rudd by Gillard, Swan, Crean, the media and so and so forth for a very long time, And course the extremely stupid and demeaning personal attack by Swan on Rudd…which simply showed what an absolute low life Swan is… the net result is Rudd being preferred PM by a country mile.
You all must understand what this means is the public give almost no credibility to anybody at all in Labor, except Rudd.
After a massive character attack the net result is Rudd is more popular than ever. This says a lot about what people think of the people attacking Rudd.
Too funny/
Yup. But oh, WHAT a bright shiny thing!! Hour of entertainment for the children wot.
[whats good about abbott bein creamed by turnbull?]
Because I want a Turnbull led Coalition
Henry @ 2
Yep! At this rate she will knock herself out in another couple of months.
Gus
[#Nielsen Poll Preferred LIB Leader: Abbott 34 Turnbull 61 #auspol]
Does not matter both are against the NBN,the NBN is a labor vote winner,a drovers dog could run on the NBn alone.
[#Nielsen Poll Preferred LIB Leader: Abbott 34 Turnbull 61 #auspol]
So that would mean PMM Gillard 10 Turnbull 85
Just saw two gigs crewed by doughty british sea dogs row past. I assume that j6p’s bro just did Australia proud.
WOAH
mob squib has just jumped the probe
so now its talcum to knife abbott to gain the LOTO
Game On
Schnappi @ 5
Rubbish.
I mostly ignore her crap…. and yours.
@14 the LOTO preferred PM number means bugger all if the PM’s FP is 26 %. I bet I know who is sleeping better tonight and it ain’t the PM.
All is forgotten Turnbull.
The hero of the Liberal Party, Mr Abbott, should now step down so a complete routing of the Labor enemy can be attained.
Dont want to put a dampner on your celebrations but by my calculations it should have been 58-42 (so there must have been some favourable rounding for the ALP even with this shocking result)
That “preferred leader of the party” question is a waste of time – all the Labor voters go for Turnbull and all the Liberal voters go for Rudd. They’d change their minds pretty quick if a change actually happened. The only moderately useful measure is when they break it down into who Labor voters think should be the Labor leader and who Liberal voters think should be Liberal leader. I suspect on that measure Gillard would probably be about even with Rudd, maybe a little in front.
I would not put much store by the Abbott/Turnbull results either, they are too easily contaminated by mischievous respondents.
Okay just confirms what we (smart ones ) already know.
It appears I missed a great deal of fun today, but I guess most things would be more fun than studying! gosh the Greeks have a lot to answer for (inventing maths) 😉
TP
no silly girls blouse
hated bitch witch slut hag whore 0
loved exulted heman homoeroticicon colosuss 100
bemused
[Schnappi @ 5
No it is not , lsl was not ,and you should have been banned not the big cat you have been shit stirring for weeks,
Rubbish.
I mostly ignore her crap…. and yours.]
Really how come you keep referring to not just us but others,you defeat your own stupidity,and are nothing but a shit stirrer.
[gusface
Posted Sunday, June 3, 2012 at 11:50 pm | Permalink
WOAH
mob squib has just jumped the probe
so now its talcum to knife abbott to gain the LOTO
Game On]
I have only been saying this for 2 years, but happy you have caught up! 😉
Possum caught onto what was happening in August last year. Took me 8 or 9 months or so to catch up
Oh well, off to bed.
Its been the most crap week for the Liberal Party since Gillard became PM and look how the week ended lol.
no wonder the first boat is cracking along – Redgrave would be making it go in circles!
I’m sure there will be every attempt to spin this in favour of Gillard. Heck, she’s gained on Rudd……..by 2 points.
I can imagine Julia’s biggest cheerleaders(and denigrators of Rudd) citing this as proof that she can win the next election. 🙂
lol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll L/NP’s attack on Thomson: Too far 31 Reasonable 37 Not gone far enough 16 #auspol
LSL Not necessarily true, lets remember that Turnbull comes from the same part of the Liberals that gave it Ted, Barry & Campbell
As much as it might not be a liked fact but the Liberal Party is more successful when it is lead by a more progressive moderate Liberals than when it is run by a more conservative hard line tory
[All is forgotten Turnbull.
The hero of the Liberal Party, Mr Abbott, should now step down so a complete routing of the Labor enemy can be attained.]
Unfortunately they don’t even have to do that under the ‘if it isn’t broken don’t fix it’ rule.
However what would twist the knife into the wound is if they made Turnbull deputy, or Treasurer. And bought sinodinos into a much more prominent role…then that would tend to sure up the degree of Labor’s loss.
Labor tried to suicide in Feb, luckily they may not have succeeded.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP voters): Gillard 53 Rudd 45 #auspol]
Newspoll is looking like a rogue, a rather big rogue survey.
rummel
[All is forgotten Turnbull.
The hero of the Liberal Party, Mr Abbott, should now step down so a complete routing of the Labor enemy can be attained.]
Would be funny if abbott has a godwin gretch in ashby/slipper
[The only moderately useful measure is when they break it down into who Labor voters think should be the Labor leader and who Liberal voters think should be Liberal leader. I suspect on that measure Gillard would probably be about even with Rudd, maybe a little in front.]
What do you do when a third (or more) of ALP voters have deserted the party and swelled the “Liberal vote”.
The 50%ish saying they will vote for the Liberal party are actually ALP voters (about 10% of that 50%), so asking the whole electorate who they want to lead the ALP is actually very interesting.
@30 – you forget why Turnbull was dumped. The only thing that will cause Abbott to knifed will be 2PP and that ain’t a problem for him at the mo.
In other words, just asking current ALP voters will clearly inflate Gillard’s popularity