Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 the previous month, with both parties down on the primary vote – Labor by two to 26% and the Coalition by one to 48%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 46-44. Nielsen also asked who would be preferred as prime minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott, with Rudd favoured 59-37, and who would be favoured as Liberal leader out of Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, with the former favoured 61-34. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have taken a hit – down five on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 57% – while Julia Gillard’s are little changed, her approval up a point to 36% and her disapproval steady at 60%. On the state breakdowns, two aberrations from last time have ironed out: over the last three polls, Labor’s two-party vote in Victoria went from 51% to 54% to 50%, while in Queensland it went from 35% to 32% to 36%. It won’t do to read much into the smaller state results particularly, but I note Labor is only three points ahead of the Greens in Western Australia.

UPDATE: This week’s Essential Research survey has all parties steady on the primary vote — Coalition on 50%, Labor on 33%, Greens on 10% — but owing to the vagaries of rounding, two-party is back at 56-44 after a week at 57-43. Other questions focus on various aspects of the Craig Thomson matter: level of awareness (29% a lot, 30% some, 28% a little and 9% nothing), importance (30% very, 36% quite, 18% not very and 7% not at all), appropriateness of media coverage (43% too much, 8% too little, 35% not at all) and how various parties have handled the matter (bad news on all counts). The poll also finds a great many more deem corporations (54%) than ordinary Australians (5%) to have been the main beneficiaries of economic reform since the 1980s.

UPDATE 2: It seems Roy Morgan might now be making a habit of publishing its face-to-face results on Tuesday, having held back until Friday in the past. The latest result is very similar to that of a fortnight ago after a spike in the Coalition’s favour last week. Over the three weeks, two-party preferred has gone from 55-45 to 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences (and 58-42 to 61.5-38.5 to 58-42 on respondent allocation); Labor’s primary vote has gone from 32% to 27.5% to 32.5%; the Coalition’s has gone from 45.5% to 49% to 45%; and the Greens have gone from 10.5% to 13% and back to 10.5%.

In other news, Possum’s Pollytics is active again after a period of hibernation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,775 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 154 of 156
1 153 154 155 156
  1. Does anyone have the name of the ABC24 bloke i/vwg Emmo this morning, please? He certainly looked a bit uncomfortable when Emmo confronted him about policy first, gossip last.

  2. [Zoomster – direct from Emmo this morning. Barnaby Joyce and Christine Milne are playing this up for their own political game. As long as the Govt. keeps on controlling it like this we have nothing to fear.]

    And what is the risk of foreign ownership of land, surely if there is conflict it all gets nationalised for free surely.

  3. BH
    i agree – this is why emerson, kelly and a few others are doing so well on twitter – of course coorey tried to have a snide swipe on insiders last week or the week before – BUT to their credit these MPs have realised that twitter in particular and other social sites are the new media.. coorey is slipping e.g. sharing the byline with mcclymont on the thomson story today – stuck in the gutter – mcclymont is very bad news

  4. zoomster

    Wasn’t having a shot at you.
    Seems to me there is more danger in Oz losing arable land through the “ride-em-cowboy” attitudes of developers, encouraged atm by Newman and his ilk.

  5. The Finnigans @ 7616

    well, you are still living in the past, move on from 1975

    Oddly, it is you and a couple of others who keep mentioning 1975.
    To me it is but a distant memory and a lot has happened since then.
    What is your peculiar fixation with 1975?

  6. [David Donovan ‏@davrosz

    Michael Lawler’s Dad is Sir Peter Lawler, former consul to the Vatican, & brother is John Lawler, head of the Australian Crime Commission.]

    Michael Lawler, Kathy Jackson’s partner, is also Opus Dei and friends with Tony Abbott who appointed him to the $400k job he currently holds.

    Wonder if Cardinal Pell is in on the action also?

  7. @Vic/7657

    Hi Vic, I had to hold off till next year as unable to find suitable accommodation and UNI didn’t have anyone left.

    Which is ok, because going overseas next month for a month.

  8. BH @ 7635

    bemused – politics and the way it is played has changed since your, MTBW and my early days.

    Gallop had some suggestions and comments about it this morning. The voters are ahead of the pollies and the journos at the moment. We cannot do everything the way it was done years ago. New era, new thinking and new methods of reaching people have to be taken into account as well has the pollies turning up to the ‘ening of an envelope’, doorknocking, and speaking at public meetings.

    Miss out on the new media and you can forget the younger voters.

    No kidding?

    Actually I am all for the embrace of new media and have advocated it for years.

    Some have reservations about the wisdom of Ministers tweeting. I have no strong feeling either way and can see both sides of the argument.

  9. Great i terview done by craig emmerson, this should be the norm for all ministers.
    The abc person looked like he had a script

    My oh for 12 months now has been say , that is exactly what they should

    Do in fact he thinks they should walk out on people like ulman

    After a few ministeres do it they will get the message,

    Hooe manager scottt gets its

    Thanks for the link

  10. [Mark Riley made that assessment early on. In his Riley Diary he refers to Gillard as the “Red Queen”. :evil:]

    So does Herald Sun’s cartoonist Mark Knight, who portrays Julia as QIE. But did they pick the Welsh connection?

    Though, to be honest, the red hair came from both of Henry VIII’s parents. His ancestry was predominantly Viking (some via Norman Yorkist & Lancastrian ancestors who were also Viking). Prince Harry’s also includes his Spencer legacy, prob via Charles II who was atavistic, as was his cousin Louis XVI (overriding more dominant DNA characteristics).


    St Kevin had many brain farts which IMHO make him unfit ever to be PM again.

    Here is but one example of brain farting I came accross in looking at Sir Peter Lawlers’ background.
    [Kevin Rudd seems to have gotten carried away by the visit of Pope Benedict XVI.

    Otherwise, how to explain the appointment of Tim Fischer as Australia’s first resident ambassador to the Holy See?

    One of the Rudd Government’s first acts on coming to office seven months ago was to cut back on the budget of the Foreign Affairs Department.

    The Department’s spending will be chopped by $57 million over the next three years.

    At least 20 diplomatic positions have had to be eliminated, some of them in countries vital to Australia’s security and trade interests.

    Yet the prime minister has decided to splash out more than a million dollars of that reduced funding to send Mr Fischer to the Vatican for reasons that are certainly not immediately apparent.

    The million dollar figure is the estimated cost of upgrading to a permanent ambassador — providing a suitable residence in Rome, a car and driver, domestic help, and an annual return trip to Australia.

    The new Ambassador’s salary — $172,900 a year — is on top of that. ]

  12. Hope the twitters are telling mr emerson . How we appreciate what he did this morning

    Made the abc look irrevelant ‘more please

  13. gigi – thanks re name of journo

    [Seems to me there is more danger in Oz losing arable land through the “ride-em-cowboy” attitudes of developers, encouraged atm by Newman and his ilk.]

    lizzie – you’ve got it in one I think where Barnaby Joyce is concerned. I was horrified to hear him say the other day that we should be going gungho to get as much stuff out of the ground as quickly as we can.

  14. Von Kirsdarke @ 7642

    [Speaking of the Victorian Legislative Council, how do others feel about the proposal to rename it to the Victorian State Senate, with MLC’s becoming ‘State Senators’?]

    Is that an actual proposal? What a joke. An Americanism we can do without, it has no parrallel in our Westmister tradition. The Assembly & Council names for State houses goes way back. “State Senate” – LOL! Talk about giving yourself airs & graces.

    Reminds me of the way job titles get pushed down the chain in corporate USA, until everyone is a Vice President.

  15. [Kevin Rudd seems to have gotten carried away by the visit of Pope Benedict XVI.]

    It never ceases to amaze me how this fascinates people so much and so long. And the desperate absolutely pathetic ongoing need / obsession of the Gillardista’s to vilify Rudd is just as terrible as the restorationists desperate and pathetic hope to restore, some, any labor glory with a return to Kevin who led us so well and to a great victory, so recently, um opps no 5 years ago.

    They are both Good Labor PM’s and both are better on their worst day than Howard was on his very best.

  16. Lyne Lady – agree with you re Coorey. He is Mr Angry Pants lately but he should really just look at the stuff he writes. It’s not worth reading

  17. Here’s an article on it I totally missed in May. Thanks for alerting me to this nonscense VK, I’ll be on the phone & email to some State MPs. What a pack of wankers.

    [Victorian upper house MPs want name of Legislative Council changed to State Senate
    Ashley Gardiner From: Herald Sun May 24, 2012 12:34PM

    MEMBERS of Victoria’s upper house of Parliament, the Legislative Council, want to become senators.
    Sign up for your free 2 month trial

    A parliamentary committee will consider the idea of changing the name of the Council to the State Senate.

    The idea was raised in a report by the electoral matters committee tabled in State Parliament today.

    Committee chairman Bernie Finn said community recognition of the Legislative Council was low.

    “Despite the vital role this chamber plays in providing good and responsible government, the vast majority of Victorians have not the faintest idea what the Legislative Council is or what it does,” Mr Finn told Parliament tody.

    “When introduced as an MLC, the average person is more inclined to think we’re an insurance salesman than a member of the Victorian Parliament.

    “In order for the general public to better understand what we do in this place, it has been proposed that the Legislative Council become the Victorian or State Senate, and each of us become state senators.

    “In many overseas jurisdictions, a state senate is the norm.

    “Personally, I believe this proposal has merit and the committee will further investigate it as a tangible possibility.”]
    Ridicule is the best response.

  18. A blah blah blah Geoff Kitney article in the AFR today (reads to me like, “well I have a half a page on Saturday, how do I fill it”). But the opening and closing sentences are not without interest to what he may be thinking of Abbott
    [Not since he became leader of the Liberal Party has Tony Abbott looked and sounded more robotic than he did this week…

    …How brave is Malcolm Turnbull]

  19. I’m very interested in the talk of the DLP. My grandparents who were avid ALP/Catholic/Unionists hated them according to my mother. I always wondered about that because my grandmother, in particular, was very very Irish Catholic.

    Does anybody care to give a short history of the DLP? or point me to where I could find one?

  20. I don’t want the ABC to become irrelevant. I want it to be better funded and regain its real balance towards facts, instead of this recent faux balance where opinion is given equal weight to facts and the journos parrot Oppn questions instead of thinking for themselves.

  21. Lizzie

    Understood….I had left discussion at that point to go shopping!

    All sources quoted ABS, don’t have direct ones at fingertip but readily googleable.

    And, although I didn’t see Emmo interviewed, I understand he went over the same ground.


    The Greens and Barnaby have the same policy.

    I think that would worry me if I were a Greens member, and I’d want to understand why that was so.

    I’d also expect that I would like to see some sound evidence behind it.

    If you’re simply willing to accept the policy as sound, without question, then don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re anything more than a partisan hack.

  22. zoomster

    The Nationals are johny come late to Food Security. Shamed into by the Greens.
    They of course have used their usual arguments and not rational science based ones.
    In fact this is the very point I made above with my Greens are very different from Nationals comment.

  23. The Finnigans @ 7603

    [quote]Oh dear, everyone is talking about The BISONs and Tony Abbott is talking about the BOATs [/quote]

    Why wouldn’t Abbott be concerned about boats. The ALP is clearly inviting more boat people by giving us the world’s best economy.

  24. ahhh GG, instead of wading through google, not knowing who or what was responsible for the content, I thought that the knowledgeable folks here might be able to save me time, or tell me about, shock! horror! a good book on the subject.


  25. That Abbott-Morrison presser seems to have sunk without trace here. I take it they said nothing remotely of interest?

  26. zoomster

    Another example of this is Coal Seam Gas. Greens there first. The Nationals only woke up to the danger to their voter base when Alan Jones joined the Greens protests.

  27. liyana,

    One of our semi regular posters Chris Curtis is an ex DLP member, executive member and candidate. He has previously been a font of interesting insight re the DLP. So, I’d certainly Google his name.

Comments Page 154 of 156
1 153 154 155 156

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *